Giolito and Keller

[tuck321]

I am very uncertain about this game. Giolito is playing on 5 days rest. On 5 days rest he is listed at 6.28 ERA.. The ump is 10-1 for home teams. Maybe Giolito has evolved past that 6.28 but the situation seems dangerous to me. Currently thinking stay away

 

[tuck321]

Jeff on 5 has an ERA of 5.63 so the DODGERS probably destroy him

 

[tuck321]

Minn seems obvious
I Think Houston should be safe but will look more at it as they are operating out of immense fatigue but 8-2 on Saturday pretty good

 

[tuck321]

I will look at the Yank game later but intuition says Over

 

[tuck321]

Could stop here and have a good day but will look about more

 

[tuck321]

San Francisco game giant under ref odd results with the starters but will stay with the Dodgers

 

[tuck321]

Skipping Greinke. On good rest after a bad game but poor history with ump

 

[tuck321]

Some interest in over in Colorado will look at it later

 

[tuck321]

No bets yet with Minn as no Detroit pitcher Gibson on sloppy numers mid 4 ERA with ump major over and around a 4 era on rest but so what
Seeing a 5.85 ERA for Cashner playing on 6

 

[tuck321]

GRAY is 1-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 9.72 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.5 units)
STEVEN MATZ vs. COLORADO since 1997
MATZ is 0-4 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 6.84 and a WHIP of 1.817.
His team's record is 0-5 (-6.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)
I know Gray is on bad rest

 

[Jm8122]

Skipping Greinke. On good rest after a bad game but poor history with ump

Hoping for a super bounce back game after I think 2 straight losses

 

[tuck321]

You might be right, He is very good on 5 will think more Davies may be heading for regression but Lyles is there
Adding Milwaukee ml and RL.
Davies has issues but but much better currently then what he is facing

 

[tuck321]

Adding Matz unlike his opponent on 5 he has a 2 ERA and a 0 ERA with the ref who is s mild homer

 

[Stew Baker]

I am very uncertain about this game. Giolito is playing on 5 days rest. On 5 days rest he is listed at 6.28 ERA.. The ump is 10-1 for home teams. Maybe Giolito has evolved past that 6.28 but the situation seems dangerous to me. Currently thinking stay away

Giolito turned things around for himself early this May. The turnaround corresponds with a mechnanics change or adding a new pitch or something along those lines, can't recall off the top of my head. Since the turnaround, he has 1 start on 5; in 5 inn. gave up 1 ER on 3 hits with 2 walks, on 78 pitches.

 

[tuck321]

could be hope he wins and I can take him off the 5 days duck.
Average bet over 10 minus 5 cents in Cleveland.
Some win but not a lot but 2 pitchers I just do not trust and a 7-3 over ump
Sabathia has a over 5 road ERA. Pluto is garbage. Over with Sabathia is really very common

 

[tuck321]

Buck Farmer is starting for Detroit. Minn has seen him a lot. This year he generally terrible but has a good era in the day. Last year he was terrible in the day; He is about to mete a great road and day team that is 10-2 on Saturday. Have played RL and 2.5. Fairly large. . Yesterday with their best pitcher they lost by 3

 

[tuck321]

Astros light. Mild RL minus 25 cents and a ML parlay with Minn. That is it. Another day of rest will help

 

[tuck321]

Looks like I should have gone with WS

 

[Stew Baker]

San Francisco game giant under ref odd results with the starters but will stay with the Dodgers

Tuck,

Exactly which pieces of data (see tables below) do you use in ascertaining whether an umpire is over or under, and by how much?

Andy Fletcher 2019


HOME TEAM W/L
7-4
HOME AVG. MARGIN
+2.55
HOME MONEY TOTAL
+94

GAME STATS

AVERAGE PER 9 inn.
6.91 RUNS
SO
17.5
STARTERS RUNS
4.45
WALKS
5.6
BULLPENS RUNS
2.45
SO/WALKS
3.10
PITCHES
284.5
HR
2.4
STRIKES
181.7
INNINGS 1-3
1.36
BALLS
102.8
INNINGS 4-6
3.00
STRIKE %
63.87%
INNINGS 7+
2.55
vs. Total O/U
1-9


Chad Whitson 2019


HOME TEAM W/L
6-6
HOME AVG. MARGIN
-0.58
HOME MONEY TOTAL
-129

GAME STATS

AVERAGE PER 9 inn.
10.08 RUNS
SO
16.8
STARTERS RUNS
5.83
WALKS
5.9
BULLPENS RUNS
4.25
SO/WALKS
2.83
PITCHES
293.8
HR
2.6
STRIKES
187.7
INNINGS 1-3
3.42
BALLS
106.2
INNINGS 4-6
4.08
STRIKE %
63.87%
INNINGS 7+
2.58
vs. Total O/U
8-4

Not that I'm disputing that Fletcher is under and Whitson is over, but wondering what are the most relevant pieces of data for you. Do you use data from previous years at all?

Thanks

 

[tuck321]

YesI I do. Frequently look at a pitchers last 3 years. A little curious why the Houston manager just brougt Will Harris in who has over an 8 ERA in the day. The same mistake that cost Houston and me a lot in the third game with Seattle. sorry a little distracted. Played Price a top day pitcher against Tampa a little while ago
And Harris gives up a RUN

 

[tuck321]

Over in Cleveland cashed and a small first half under in Miami. Just do understand the phobia about using Harris in the day

 

[tuck321]

Jeff has a first time catcher
Hill pretty good catcher 2.57 ERA
Light bet on Dodgers ML and RL

 

[tuck321]

No RL 200 bucks. They actually wanted me to pay a RL minus 50 cents

 

[tuck321]

I really do not want to swear but the Houston manger brought in in the 9th down 1 run one of the worst pitchers in baseball

 

[tuck321]

Added under in the SF game with this ump almost forced,
I may be dropping the Astros since betting on a team run by a lunatic is bad strategy

 

[tuck321]

Bet the Cardinals. Beaker said the ump in that game is Gonzalez. That should be Manny
Gonzalez. Lester 7.15 ERA with him and a bad spot to start with
Actually 7.32

 

[tuck321]

So far 4 runs in the first for the Cardinals
Really hope the message got out

 

[Fondybadger]

Thanks for thoughts today

 

[Stew Baker]

YesI I do. Frequently look at a pitchers last 3 years. A little curious why the Houston manager just brougt Will Harris in who has over an 8 ERA in the day. The same mistake that cost Houston and me a lot in the third game with Seattle. sorry a little distracted. Played Price a top day pitcher against Tampa a little while ago
And Harris gives up a RUN

Please, if you can. When evaluating the umpires for totals, which of these do you use? O/U record, runs scored per game, pitches per game, strike %, SO/BB ration, other variables? How do you weight these variables? Is there a formula which is used? Not trying to be funny here, I'm just a bitchy book store manager, what do I know? Tying to learn.

 

[tuck321]

I do not have a formula. i just break down established facts about the pitcher looking for edges.
one game today that interests me is Miami. 25 cents seems a good price Wacha has been seriously bad and he pitches best with Molina who is out. With the other catcher a 10.70 ERA based 17.2 innings and on 6+ 5.74 ERA and at night 6.63. is Miami really supposed to be getting 25 cents here will lock it in in the morning
Actually will lock the first half in
Also realistic look at the the over

 

[tuck321]

Tampa 6-0 on Monday

 

[tuck321]

Cardinals are off 3 losses and on a 5-1 day of week. They can still lose but it is not easy. Increased interest in over and no side bets to start besides a light first half bet

 

[tuck321]

Likely bet on Dodgers first half
Not possible to skip Miami first half. f you look Miami hits Wacha very well

 

[tuck321]

Leaning Colorado. Marquez 4-1 on 4 days rest 4.30 ERA

 

[tuck321]

No strong feeling about Atlanta game.Pitt and Atlanta. Atlanta better team but hard to get behind playing as bad as the Atlanta pitcher is
Ump may decide

 

[tuck321]

Barneys Dads bet is very interesting but if I repeat it I may be commited

 

[Inspekdah]

Leaning Colorado. Marquez 4-1 on 4 days rest 4.30 ERA

Darvish gets crushed, routinely, by Rockies.

 

[Ryno14]

I couldn't bet the Cubs game either way tonight

 

[tuck321]

I may not when he was getting crushed it was not with a team strong on Mondays
This figures to be a tough day

 

[tuck321]

This is not a strong day for the Dodgers but it certainly is for Tampa

 

[tuck321]

umps in. No bet on Colorado bad ump for Marquez 9 ERA hitting over seems likely

 

[tuck321]

Tampa Bay RL Morton fits ump

 

[tuck321]

Bad ump for both starters in Yankee game
Not going to touch this one maybe small over not really sure seems like it helps Mets more

 

[tuck321]

No play in Boston
Need to think but the ump may help Wacha

 

[tuck321]

May not help him ump is 9-2 for home teams
Ump in Atlanta no contact with either starter but is a over

 

[Stew Baker]

I do not have a formula. i just break down established facts about the pitcher looking for edges.
one game today that interests me is Miami. 25 cents seems a good price Wacha has been seriously bad and he pitches best with Molina who is out. With the other catcher a 10.70 ERA based 17.2 innings and on 6+ 5.74 ERA and at night 6.63. is Miami really supposed to be getting 25 cents here will lock it in in the morning
Actually will lock the first half in
Also realistic look at the the over

I can see what you're doing, and can follow along. The thing I need help with, is exactly what you use to say whether an umpire is over or under, and how predominantly. If an umpire has a strong over record, like 8-3 and runs per game are high, but the peripherals like strike % and SO/BB ration are high like you would expect from an under umpire, do you look for regression? Which pieces of data for an umpire are really relevant? And what's the league average for runs, per game, pitches per game, strike %, and SO/BB ratio, so you can gauge which side of the ledger an umpire is on? I'm like a babe in the wioods with this stuff.

 

[tuck321]

I am not saying it is the best way of evaluating but once again I look at the last 3 year of the umps to judge. There are may be a lot of games and limited time

 

[tuck321]

Quintana is going tomorrow in Colorado On 5 days rest he has a 6.16 ERA. At Colorado a 4.58 ERA based on 17.2. Under ump I will look at him but looking at Quintana I start out thinking Over. Lambert has only pitched in the day and I am not seeing any record of him pitching in Colorado.

 

[tuck321]

I am not sure but assuming a doubleheader tomorrow in NY. Mets much better on Tuesdays

 

[Ryno14]

Quintana is going tomorrow in Colorado On 5 days rest he has a 6.16 ERA. At Colorado a 4.58 ERA based on 17.2. Under ump I will look at him but looking at Quintana I start out thinking Over. Lambert has only pitched in the day and I am not seeing any record of him pitching in Colorado.

He's only made one career start. Against the Cubs last week.