******** Genius Bowl Plays 2014 ********

T

The Capping Genius

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I will add games in this window as the bowl season progresses

As of JAN 1st. on a 20-4 run on sides. .

New orleans Bowl - No Play.


Saturday Dec 20


New Mexico Bowl
UTEP +10.5 over Utah State LOST. Last second Utah State td killed it.


Las Vegas Bowl
Colorado State + 4.5 over Utah. Lost

Idaho Bowl
Air Force +2 over W.Michigan. WM lost 3 of 4 to teams that ran for more than 200 yds. WON

Camellia Bowl
S. Bama -1 over Bowling Green. Lost




Monday Dec 22nd

Miami Beach Bowl

BYU +1 over
Memphis.
Memphis played one team all season with a winning record at the time of each game. They finished the season against 1 winning team and 6 losers. BYU will show them what it is to get into a bowl game. One common opponent on the season was Houston. BYU won and Memphis Lost.


Tuesday Dec 23rd
Boca Raton Bowl

Northern Illinois +10 over Marshall. Marshall only played 3 bowl eligible teams all season. Two of those were wins over Rice and a playoff win over La Tech by 3 points. The loss was to W.Kentucky 66-67/
Expect NIU to take advantage of turnovers and have a shot at winning SU as well. LOST


Poinsetta Bowl

Navy +2.5 over SDSU. SDSU brings the worst red zone defense of all bowl teams this season. Navy run game will have a great day against a SDSU team allowing 4.2 yes per rush against bowler this season. WON



Dismal start to say the least. ^ Its time to step up units now.

Did I mention Ohio State +10 for 10 units and a ML +280 for 5 Units
over Alabama.


Wednesday Dec 24th
Bahamas Bowl

C. Michigan +3.5 (2 units)
over Western KY. CM has better defense. WON

Hawaii Bowl

Rice +2.5 (3 units)
over Fresno State. Rice played far stronger Bowl opponents during reg season..WON

Record now at 4-5 +1.50 units



FRIDAY Dec 26th

L.Tech -6 (4 units)
over Illinois. Illini Ground game is dismal offensively and terrible defensively. Illini was outgunned by 160 yds per game against bowl teams. WON

Rutgers +3.5 (2 units) over North Carolina. Knights had all 5 of their losses against the BIG 10. NC isn't in the category of Ohio St, Mich State, Wisky, Nebraska and Penn State They played 3 of those away at Ohio St, Mich State and Nebraska. The others were at home. Two wins against the Big 10 were against Indiana and Michigan both in Rutger land. While this is their 1st season playing in the Big 10, they still have a lesser opponent in NC. They do have 10 players who are questionable for this game - but I'll roll the dice on them today. WON

North Carolina State +3 (3units) over Cent Florida. Dog has a far better defense. WON



^ Record now at 7-5. + 10.5 Units. ^


Saturday Dec 27th.

V Tech +3 (4 units)
over Cincinnati. VT has allowed an average of 23 points per game on defense against bowlers this season. The Bearcats have allowed 43, and not one bowl team scored less than 31! A No -Brainer! WON


Arizona state -7.5 (2 units)
over Duke. Blue devels faced weaker Bowl grade opponents and Cant see how they could score more than 24 against Az. State. AZ St. has averaged a solid 32 points per game against bowlers and 3 of 7 were on the road. LOSS

S.Carolina +3.5 over Miami Hurricanes. WON

Penn state +2.5 (5 units) over Boston College. P-State has best rushing defense in the country (85 yds per game). BC has the worst offensive passing game at 119 yds per game passing.
against bowlers. WON

Nebraska +7.5 (2 units) over USC. Simply going with the points. WON.

^ Record Now at 11-6 +20.30 Units. Won 9 of last 10. ^




MONDAY Dec 29th


A&M +3.5 (2 units) over
W. Virginia. Was on WV early on the season but they cooled off a lot. WV struggled with Texas and TCU so I cant see how they could be favored over A&M. Thanks for the points.. WON

Clemson+3.5 (2 units) over Oklahoma. Oklahoma played one winning team in the last 5 games to finish the regular season. If you look closely they played great defense in the first 6 games of the season for the most part. Look again and you will see that they had no defense at all the rest of the way out. OK lost most games to bowl opponents as well and this ingredients are just right for a loss against a team like Clemson.
Quarterback Trevor Knight, who was named the MVP of the Sooners’ Sugar Bowl win over Alabama after throwing for career highs of 348 yards and four touchdowns, has been cleared to play after sustaining a neck injury in a Nov. 8 loss to Baylor. His three-game absence coincided with Perine’s late-season explosion as the Sooners averaged 97.3 passing yards with redshirt freshman Cody Thomas starting, as opposed to 250.1 yards with Knight. Oklahoma also anticipates a healthy return from leading receiver Sterling Shepard, who missed most of the last five games with a lingering groin injury.

The ringleader of the Tigers’ defense is two-time All-American Vic Beasley, who leads the ACC in sacks this year with 11 and has a school-record 32 in his career – tied for fifth in conference history. The ACC Defensive Player of the Year was one of four Clemson defensive players to be named to the all-conference first team, joining defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, cornerback Garry Peters and linebacker Stephone Anthony. Senior quarterback Cole Stoudt, who started seven games, will slide back into the starting role after the school announced that freshman Deshaun Watson would not continue to play through the same torn ACL he did in a Nov. 29 win over South Carolina.

If you didn't know - Clemson held opponents to season-lows in yards allowed for as many as 9 different teams. That my friend, is no accident. Combine that fact, with an Oklahoma team that has no defense, means that the Sooners will burn out while Clemson will stay fresh all day.
Tigers Starting QB is out - but this line opened at PK and now is only 3.5. If losing the QB would have taken a chance away from Clemson winning, I would think that OK would have jumped at least to 6. The former starter and now a backup, is still capable as he is supported by the Nations best overall defense of all bowl teams. WON


Arkansas -6 (2 units)
over Texas. Horns had several low scoring games on offense against bowlers only averaging 16 points per game. That may be the lowest of all the bowlers this year? .

The Razorbacks have a brutal defense no matter where they play. Arkansas was great enough to hold Mississippi State to 17 points in a 10-17 loss. I don't see how Texas can out-play the way Miss State played Ark. Looks like a low-scoring game and ARK wins by 7 or more. WON


^ Record Now at 14-6 +26.30 Units. > Won 12 of last 13. ^

TUESDAY DEC 30.

Notre Dame +8 (3 units) over LSU.
Loss of a very good QB from last year in Mettenberger is too much for LSU to cover this one. Current QB Jennings has a terrible Comp Percentage of 48% compared to Mettenbergers 65% last year. In the Bowl last year LSU struggled against IOWA with LSU winning a close one 21-14. In road games a year ago LSU was still on the plus side because of Mettenberger. This year with Jennings they are being pounded. They are averaging 15 points on offense while allowing 26. That is a bad, bad stat to cover a bowl game away.

The Irish may have a dual threat at QB but that could be a good thing. Backup QB Zaire runs well and is averaging 8 yes per rush. If LSU Loads up the bos to stop the run ND could explode in the passing games. Tigers also gave up 6,2 yds rushing away against Miss St and Auburn. If LSU cant control the first down game then ND will cover this one.
Tigers are one of the worst scoring offenses against Bowlers this season averaging only 18 points per game,. Add that to the fact that they don't dominate on defense away and you have a good chance for the IRISH to cover. WON


Louisville +7.5 (3 units) and ML +250 (1 unit) over Georgia.
Cardinals were outstanding all year even in losses to powerhouse programs. Ville stayed with Fla State 31-42, at Clemson with the best defense in the country 17-23 and lost a close one in Vriginia 21-23 on turnovers.
Georgia played well enough to be a big favorite but lacks defense away ( much like LSU) allowing 30 points or more in 5 of 6 road games.
The Cards are under rated on defense and are allowing a low average of 14 first downs per game. In Virginia they only allowed 13 first downs and only allowed 12 to Clemson. Only Fla. State had more with 25 and Georgia isn't Fla State in my book. That allows for a ML play on top of taking the points for this one. LOST.


Maryland +14 (3 units) over Stanford. An unranked double digit favorite that is over-priced here. The Terps battled a strong bunch of BIG 10 teams and lost. But they have some better luck out of the conference.
Stanford is a negative team against Bowlers as is Maryland, but when you have two negative teams with a double digit favorite, the only thing that can be considered is who they've played. Stanford played a lot of unranked teams and I believe that Maryland had a much tougher schedule. No big advantage here so Im on the dog. LOST


^ Record Now at 15-8 +21.70 Units. > Won 13 of last 16. ^

WEDNESDAY DEC 31.

12:30PM
TCU -3 (4 units) over
Mississippi. Being booted out of the top 4 spots in the nation should piss off TCU plenty. Miss had their game of the year upsetting Miss State so don't expect another performance like that against TCU
WON

4:00pm
Boise +3 (4 units) over Arizona. Boise is better statistically against bowlers than Arizona in Pass Running game and Defense. Look for the same result from Boise that Oregon did to Arizona in the Playoff game.
WON

8:00pm

Georgia Tech +7 (4 units) over
Mississippi State. GT won all three big games against Clemson, Georgia and Virg Tech and should have beat Fla State in a tight one with bad refs. . I don't think that Miss St. would be laying 7 to any of those 4 teams if they were in this Bowl game today.
WON
^ Record Now at 18-8 > +33.70 Units. > Won 16 of last 19. ^




THURSDAY JANUARY 1ST.


Wisconsin +7 (5 UNITS) over
Auburn. Careful study on this favors Wisky. Line is wrong as I think Wisky should be favored. I have Wisky basically as good as Georgia who beat Auburn BY THREE +TOUCHDOWNS. Whisky is ranked 18th after a big loss to tOSU and Georgia is ranked #13 while Auburn is ranked #19. LINE OPENED AT 5.5 AND NOW IS 7.. OBVIOUSLY DOLLARS ARE GOING ON THE TIGERS. ONE MORE ANGLE HERE is Barry Alvarez Athletic Director walking on the field to coach this one.
WON

Michigan State +3.5 (5 Units) over Baylor. Spartans have faced the best offense they would have faced all year in Oregon. Baylor can roll big but not against this defense. Baylor showed they can be stopped by W, Virginia. Bears bring #1 offsense of all bowlers but only 33rd in defense. Spartans bring 7th best offense but 10th best defense. Defensively not one team that Baylor faced this season is in that category. Offensively Baylor is greatly over rated as they played a bunch of bowlers who lack plenty on defense.
WON

One Total Play for the whole Bowl season.
M. St,/Baylor.
UNDER 70 (4 units) LOST



Missouri -4.5 ( 5 units) over Minnesota.
Only one game stands out that made Mizzo look bad. The loss to Georgia. The good part about that loss, was that as good as Georgia is, the Tigers held them to 34 points. Thats amazing when you consider that Mizzou had 5 turnovers and only 147 total yards in the game. . Minny was favored only 3 times all season. BY 14 over Mid Tenn, 7 over San Jose, and 12 over Purdue the chicken breeding factory. So this line is very small for the favorite in my opinion and should be an easy win barring turnovers by Mizzou today.
WON

Florida State +7.5 (5 units) over
Oregon.The Ducks with a great QB- faced only one out-of-conference bowler (Mich St.) in which that game was much-much closer than the score as Mich St. won in the stats away and lost 2 turnovers. . FSU faced 4 out-of-conference bowlers. . Oregon played all other bowlers from the Pac 10, in which most of those games were played while those teams were struggling. Even Stanford didn't start playing better until the last 2 weeks of the season. The Ducks came back from being beat by Arizona early in the season to win the Conf Championship game, but, by then Zona was not as good as the early part of the season. FSU defense surprises here - and outplays the Ducks.
LOST.




OHIO STATE +10 (10 Units) & OHIO STATE ML +280 (5 Units)
OVER ALABAMA. Tide simply didn't score much in Road games against Bowlers. Buckeyes are the ONLY Bowl team to out-gain all 10 bowlers they faced this season.
HUGE WINNER!



^ Record Now at 22-9 > +63.10 Units. >>> Won 20 of last 24 sides. 0-1 On totals. . ^




FRIDAY Jan 2nd.


Pittsburgh -3.5 (2 units) over
Houston

IOWA +3.5 (3 units) over
Tennessee. SEC is diluted and this should be one more loos for the SEC.

UCLA -1.5 (2 units) over
Kansas State. K-State allowed over 400 yards on defense to 4 of the last 5 teams to end the season. The Bruins have won the stats against 7 if 8 bowl team this year.

Washington -5 (3 units) over
Oklahoma State. Cowboys are terrible against bowlers and have allowed 39 points per game. Washington is respectable and has allowed only 30 and was only out-scored by an average of 6 points.


Saturday Jan 3rd.

East Carolina +7 (4 units) ML +215 ( 2 units) over
Florida. The Pirates have come along very well and are stepping up to better competition this year. The Gators are no longer a good team as in years past, so this line is too good to be true in my book, but I love it! One common opponent was South Carolina. Florida had SC in Florida and lost 20-23. EC played SC in Carolina ands los, but outgunned the Gamecocks on their home field and lost 23-33.

This game is worth a ML bet as well.



SUNDAY Jan 4th.
Arky State +3.5 (4 units) over Toledo. I don't know why Arky is a dog, but Im on them because in every game they played this year they were favored except for two games. Those two were against Mia, Fl -13.5 and Tennessee -16. both away. Toledo was a dog to Missouri -3.5 , Cincinnati -9 and Iowa St -3.5.

Arky was better in bowl-grade games - so I give this one to them.
 
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Good luck with BYU

Only thing I would say is that comparing BYU win over Houston with T. Hill at QB to Memphis loss against Houston where Memphis had 5 turnovers and lost by 4 points isn't something I would put much weight on. For your sake, I hope the 8th year seniors show up .. for my sake, I hope they don't care about lil old Memphis.
 
Good luck with BYU

Only thing I would say is that comparing BYU win over Houston with T. Hill at QB to Memphis loss against Houston where Memphis had 5 turnovers and lost by 4 points isn't something I would put much weight on. For your sake, I hope the 8th year seniors show up .. for my sake, I hope they don't care about lil old Memphis.

Lost another tough one but ...Hey! we won the fight...LOL
 
gl genius. I realize ncsu might have a good matchup tomorrow and shut down a horrible ucf offense but do you really think they have the better defense as you wrote in post 1? Well obviously you do but can you tell me why you do?
 
gl genius. I realize ncsu might have a good matchup tomorrow and shut down a horrible ucf offense but do you really think they have the better defense as you wrote in post 1? Well obviously you do but can you tell me why you do?

Clown I do. I based it on less bowlers that CF played and also that NC St played Fla state and Ga Tech and allowed a ton of points (116) therefore falsifying the defensive stats a lot.
 
Thoughts on Ohio State ML?

I think the whole SEC is diluted more than many may think and that Bama is going to find it hard to score. Look at the road games they had against Bowlers. Except for Tennessee where they scored 34 on the Vols, They couldn't score over 20 points on anyone else. 17 against Miss, 14 against Ark and 20 against LSU. The Buckeyes won't have any trouble scoring more than all three of those teams, so a SU win is VERY VERY Likely.
 
I think the whole SEC is diluted more than many may think and that Bama is going to find it hard to score. Look at the road games they had against Bowlers. Except for Tennessee where they scored 34 on the Vols, They couldn't score over 20 points on anyone else. 17 against Miss, 14 against Ark and 20 against LSU. The Buckeyes won't have any trouble scoring more than all three of those teams, so a SU win is VERY VERY Likely.

Thanks for your response CG. Trying to figure this game out, mainly as a fan. Probably won't have a bet on it. And while the offense did struggle on the road for the most part, the Superdome isn't a true road game, and it will be a pro-Alabama crowd I would think. And you forgot to mention Missouri. 42 points on a neutral field. Good luck on your wagers
 
Thanks for your response CG. Trying to figure this game out, mainly as a fan. Probably won't have a bet on it. And while the offense did struggle on the road for the most part, the Superdome isn't a true road game, and it will be a pro-Alabama crowd I would think. And you forgot to mention Missouri. 42 points on a neutral field. Good luck on your wagers

The Neutral site game was a championship for the division. Missouri had only 10 first downs and quit. Bama also scored 21 points in the 4th and Missouri was no longer doing anything. Missouri also ha no run game, as they managed only 41 yds rushing all day. The Buckeyes are much more capable than Mizzou was.
The bad thing when capping games is when a team like Obama wins often on intimidation before the games starts. Also, when a team plays an opponent that makes them look better than they are, many considering Bama, will not recognize some particulars closely and that is when all of us lose.

The fact that Bama has so much more possession time (37-to-23 minutes) and all they could do in the first 3 quarters is hold on to a 17-13 lead - tells me that they aren't as good as they look.

Don't be afraid to take the Buckeyes. They could end up National Champs. Happy New Year!:shake:
 
Not saying OSU can't win, and it's probably the homer in me, but I don't think ohio st keeps it close. This is by far the best team the buckeyes have faced this year. Maybe the best Alabama has too, but not by as large a margin. A 3rd string QB against a Saban/Smart defense with a month of prep. An OC that has been working 2 jobs the last 2 weeks. Just don't see a SU win "very very likely." Guess we'll see.
 
Not saying OSU can't win, and it's probably the homer in me, but I don't think ohio st keeps it close. This is by far the best team the buckeyes have faced this year. Maybe the best Alabama has too, but not by as large a margin. A 3rd string QB against a Saban/Smart defense with a month of prep. An OC that has been working 2 jobs the last 2 weeks. Just don't see a SU win "very very likely." Guess we'll see.

Didn't mean to give the opinion that you thought they couldn't win. Again, Im going on what Bama did on road games. Buckeyes were much better scoring on the road and played what was maybe the best defense at that time at Michigan state.
Don't get me wrong here, as I am taking the 10 points too, but that ML looks sooooo good.

Saban is a great coach but you still need players to win and the Buckeyes have great potential and they won't be intimidated one bit with another great coach, named Urban.

GL through all the bowls. :shake:
 
CG i respect the hell out of your capping / opinions. But the Ohio State / Bama seems a bit one sided. You mention Bama and their struggles. If i remember correctly, THE Ohio State
struggled for three quarters against Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State. Now, on the other side of the argument, Bama is not the only team who struggled at Arkansas. I would take the teams
Alabama struggled with all day every day, if they where paired up against the Big 10 teams Ohio State couldn't put away until late. You have to remember, Alabama is used to this stage, hell not just the
big time bowl games the veterans have played in, every week in the regular season is a war. Hard to get up mentally EVERY week, you can only tell yourself "this is the game of the year." some many times, and get up for a opponent. Ohio State did not have to worry about that, they had cup cakes every other week. I do not think Ohio State has faced a team so balanced on offense. Stack the box to stop the run, boom Cooper deep. Play extra db's, uh no, now you got Yeldon and company running loose. Stop both, you got a mismatch with the big TE running in the middle of the field. Not to mention Sims CAN take off with it.

GL my Capping friend, lets all make some money. Once again, please do not take this as a coming into your thread and shitting on it. It is all about lending opinions to maybe help sway, or cement a persons pick. The whole key is to make money and share info, opinions, or maybe help someone like a pick even more.
 
CG i respect the hell out of your capping / opinions. But the Ohio State / Bama seems a bit one sided. You mention Bama and their struggles. If i remember correctly, THE Ohio State
struggled for three quarters against Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State. Now, on the other side of the argument, Bama is not the only team who struggled at Arkansas. I would take the teams
Alabama struggled with all day every day, if they where paired up against the Big 10 teams Ohio State couldn't put away until late. You have to remember, Alabama is used to this stage, hell not just the
big time bowl games the veterans have played in, every week in the regular season is a war. Hard to get up mentally EVERY week, you can only tell yourself "this is the game of the year." some many times, and get up for a opponent. Ohio State did not have to worry about that, they had cup cakes every other week. I do not think Ohio State has faced a team so balanced on offense. Stack the box to stop the run, boom Cooper deep. Play extra db's, uh no, now you got Yeldon and company running loose. Stop both, you got a mismatch with the big TE running in the middle of the field. Not to mention Sims CAN take off with it.

GL my Capping friend, lets all make some money. Once again, please do not take this as a coming into your thread and shitting on it. It is all about lending opinions to maybe help sway, or cement a persons pick. The whole key is to make money and share info, opinions, or maybe help someone like a pick even more.

That is a great post and I take no-offense to it at all. Thanks for the reply.

Im on the Buckeyes both ways. 10 units with the points and 5 units with the ML.

I suppose many would think they way you did with good logic because the Tide is a well-seasoned team in big games. But there is also too much here in a 10 point spread just because the Eyes are starting a 3rd string QB.
So with that said, lets say that the Buckeyes were starting their first string qb. What then would be the line here? Maybe 6? This kid starting was absolutey great in the game against Wisky to win the BIG 10. The Badgers knew they had to stop the run to compete as they had little fear from the Buckeye 3rd string QB. They couldn't do it as Ohio St. ran all day and the QB only made 17 attempts hitting 12 times for 257 yds.

Now I know that Wisky doesn't have the defense that Bama has - but the Buckeyes have a great run defense and can slow any one down. Bama has one of the best run defenses of all Bowl teams but they will find a completely different animal trying to stop the Buckeyes run game that is averaging 265 yes per game.

One more note. I have always believed that when a team loses a QB that goes to the NFL, it loses much more talent than some would think. Just because Bama has made it to another Sugar bowl with the current QB, doesn't mean they are anywhere near as good as last year despite the 12-1 record. As I mentioned in my early write ups I think the SEC is very diluted this year. Bama's low-scoring in road games shows me a lot.
Now IF you had AJ McCarron starting, my money would be on Bama minus the 10 all day. But -Thats not the case for this game.

Again, thanks for the feedback.

BOL on all the games.
 
u crrushing bro..keep up the good work..i like the buckeyes too..best oline in football imo.
 
BOWL and NFL capping Angles.

One factor that I use that is crucial in Bowls and NFL Playoffs is points per first down. Offensive and Defensive. You will be stunned how big this is in certain games.
This is a mammoth task to go through after doing all your common capping homework.

I admit I don;t always do this because I'm convinced i have enough info already. When I lose that game - I go back sometimes and redo the game with my points per first downs equation. Thats when I find out if I as wrong or not.

There are games we lose, that the team simply didn't deliver. That is something that will never cahnge. But when a game is capped, the points per first downs is important beyond common capping.

I learned this back when I was betting NFL sides in the days of Montana , Marino and others who were dominating at times. What the big advantage was when lines were over 10 points on any given game.
You'd be surprised how many lines like that became very small if the favorite is able to expose a defense that allows a ton of first downs even thought they don't allow a lot of points.
Years ago one capping sheet use to show all this in a tidy column. That made it real easy to cap. But most don't divide it up any longer and that makes for a lot more work.

OK so what is it that i do? Here it is.

Team A ( Alabama) has scored 482 points on offense and had 319 first downs. That means that they score 1.51 points for every first down they make.

ON defense team A allows 211 first downs and 216 points. That means they allow 1.02 points per first down they give up.

Team B (Ohio State) scored 588 points on 355 first downs. That means that the Buckeyes score 1.75 points every time they make a first down.

On Defense they allowed 242 first downs and allow 275 points. That means they allow 1.13 points per first down.

If you say that Bama will have played 13 games then you divide the first down by 13 to expect a probable amount of first downs for this game against the Buckeyes.
Same thing is done for Ohio state.
Team 'A' 319 divided by 13 = 24.5 first downs. Resulting in 24.5 multiplied by 1.51 = 36.99 points on offense projected for the game by Bama. .

On defense its. 16.23 first downs allowed and multiplied by 1.02 pints =16.55 points.
right now Bama should score 36.99 and allow 16.55 points.

Ohio State should score 355 first downs divided by 13 games is 27.30 first downs multiplied by 1.75 points = 47,77 points scored on offense.

On defense its. 242 first downs divided by 13 games and its 18.61 first downs = 21.03 points allowed projected for this game.

Buckeyes should score 37.77 and allow 21.03 points.

Now these are only averages from the whole season. You then have to use only bowl game stats Teams in bowl games this year that they have played) to get a better accuracy and possible out come. When that is done you then do a contrast to eacj oher.

Example
Bama First down on offense 24.5 first downs = 36 points
Buckeyes 1st downs on offense 27,30 = 47 points

Bama defense is 16.23 downs = 16 points
Buckeyes defense is 18. 61 first downs = 21 points.

You then subtract the Bama offense 36 points from the OSU offense 47 points and the advantage is for OSU by 11 points on offense

You the do the same with defense. ODU allowed 21 and Bama allowed 16 and the advantage is 5 for Bama. You then see that Ohio State has 11 and zbama has 5 and subtract the 5 from the OSU 11 and you get an advantage of 6 for the game by OSU. Add in the 10 points spread for the Buckeyes and now they have an advantage of 16 points and should win this game by that much when given the spread. Real score outcome should be Buckeyes win SU by 6.

If you take the time to dissect the bowl game opponents they have both played then the stats should show you who may win. Remember this is using the whole season of games for both teams. You should ONLY use Bowl opponents to do this and more importantly all the road games get priority for comparison...

GL Do The math.
 
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BOWL and NFL capping Angles.

One factor that I use that is crucial in Bowls and NFL Playoffs is points per first down. Offensive and Defensive. You will be stunned how big this is in certain games.
This is a mammoth task to go through after doing all your common capping homework.

I admit I don;t always do this because I'm convinced i have enough info already. When I lose that game - I go back sometimes and redo the game with my points per first downs equation. Thats when I find out if I as wrong or not.

There are games we lose, that the team simply didn't deliver. That is something that will never cahnge. But when a game is capped, the points per first downs is important beyond common capping.

I learned this back when I was betting NFL sides in the days of Montana , Marino and others who were dominating at times. What the big advantage was when lines were over 10 points on any given game.
You'd be surprised how many lines like that became very small if the favorite is able to expose a defense that allows a ton of first downs even thought they don't allow a lot of points.
Years ago one capping sheet use to show all this in a tidy column. That made it real easy to cap. But most don't divide it up any longer and that makes for a lot more work.

OK so what is it that i do? Here it is.

Team A ( Alabama) has scored 482 points on offense and had 319 first downs. That means that they score 1.51 points for every first down they make.

ON defense team A allows 211 first downs and 216 points. That means they allow 1.02 points per first down they give up.

Team B (Ohio State) scored 588 points on 355 first downs. That means that the Buckeyes score 1.75 points every time they make a first down.

On Defense they allowed 242 first downs and allow 275 points . That means they allow 1.13 points per first down.

If you say that Bama will have played 13 games then you divide the first down by 13 to expect a probable amount of first downs for this game against the Buckeyes.
Same thing is done for Ohio state.
Team 'A' 319 divided by 13 = 24.5 first downs. Resulting in 24.5 multiplied by 1.51 = 36.99 points on offense projected for the game by Bama. .

On defense its. 16.23 first downs allowed and multiplied by 1.02 pints =16.55 points.
right now Bama should score 36.99 and allow 16.55 points.

Ohio State should score 355 first downs divided by 13 games is 27.30 first downs multiplied by 1.75 points = 47,77 points scored on offense.

On defense its. 242 first downs divided by 13 games and its 18.61 first downs = 21.03 points allowed projected for this game.

Buckeyes should score 37.77 and allow 21.03 points.

Now these are only averages from the whole season. You then have to use only bowl game stats Teams in bowl games this year that they have played) to get a better accuracy and possible out come. When that is done you then do a contrast to eacj oher.

Example
Bama First down on offense 24.5 first downs = 36 points
Buckeyes 1st downs on offense 27,30 = 47 points

Bama defense is 16.23 downs = 16 points
Buckeyes defense is 18. 61 first downs = 21 points.


You then subtract the Bama offense 36 points from the OSU offense 47 points and the advantage is for OSU by 11 points on offense

You the do the same with defense. ODU allowed 21 and Bama allowed 16 and the advantage is 5 for Bama. You then see that Ohio State has 11 and zbama has 5 and subtract the 5 from the OSU 11 and you get an advantage of 6 for the game by OSU. Add in the 10 points spread for the Buckeyes and now they have an advantage of 16 points and should win this game by that much when given the spread. Real score outcome should be Buckeyes win SU by 6.

If you take the time to dissect the bowl game opponents they have both played then the stats should show you who may win. Remember this is using the whole season of games for both teams. You should ONLY use Bowl opponents to do this and more importantly all the road games get priority for comparison...

GL Do The math.

I'm sure I am missing something so if you have a minute to clarify for me. It seems like all the math with first downs is wasted time because your numbers are the same if you just take total points / games played and you get the same numbers as your FD avg x pt per FD.

Using your numbers:

Bama O scores 482 in 13 games = 37.07 ppg
* your first down formula says they will score 36*
Bama D allows 216 in 13 games = 16.62 ppg
*your first down formula says they will allow 16*

Ohio St O scores 588 in 13 games = 45.23 ppg
*your first down formula says they will score 47*
Ohio St D allows 275 in 13 games = 21.15
*your first down formula says they will allow 21*

It seems like the same thing right? But just taking a teams scoring average and pts against average compared with their opponent isn't all that great of a tool is it?

Again, I'm sure I am missing something and would appreciate any insight.
 
So you are saying the line for ohio state and Alabama is off 16 points?

If so, "Exit stage left" for me but good luck.

Incidentally, the national average is 1.385. I use that to look at how lucky and unlucky teams have gotten with their scoring over the course of the year, accounting/adjusting for teams with big play capability and teams who are going to grind it out in pieces, accounting for weather and accounting for quality (and matchup) of opponent. I think the national average is a complete number that accounts for most anomalies of luck. I love first downs as a stat but your line creation using it is flawed in my opinion. But there are many different ways to approach things and if it wins for you, I am happy for you. Can't say that I have tracked it.


Do you use power ratings? Those are probably the most useful tool in handicapping bowl games.
 
Also, can you tell me what your system would line Marshall vs Florida State? Just run through it just as you did with bama ohio state. Thanks for your help in making me understand.
 
[TABLE="width: 1235"]
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col span="4"></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Marshall Games Played[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Florida State Games Played[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Marshall[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bowl Opponent[/TD]
[TD]Pts for[/TD]
[TD]pts against[/TD]
[TD]FD for[/TD]
[TD]FD Allowed[/TD]
[TD]fd per game vs bowl[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]fd allowed per game vs bowl[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"] pts expected[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts allowed expected[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rice[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WKU[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Latech[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NIU[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]185[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]28.75[/TD]
[TD]22.75[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46.25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31.75[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Pts per First Down vs Bowl Teams[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.6086957[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Pts Allowed per First Down vs Bowl Teams[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.3956044[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 7"]Do you remove a game for skewing? What if that game went to overtime? Double overtime?[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 7"]In the case of Ohio State for instance, would you remove the Wisconsin game from the analysis?[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 13"]Isn't creating a line based on a few bowl opponents in and of itself misleading to you on several levels? Do you apply all bowl eligible teams? For instance, GA Southern would be favored over every sun belt team that actually went to a bowl but they were not eligible. Or for instance, Virginia ... who would be favored over every bowl team that came out of the MAC or Sunbelt but did not achieve bowl eligibility. Do you include Virginia as a bowl team? If not, how do you reconcile that?[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Florida State[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bowl Opponent[/TD]
[TD]Pts for[/TD]
[TD]pts against[/TD]
[TD]FD for[/TD]
[TD]FD Allowed[/TD]
[TD]fd per game vs bowl[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]fd allowed per game vs bowl[/TD]
[TD]pts expected[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts allowed expected[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oklahoma ST[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]clemson[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ncsu[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ndame[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ville[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]miami fl[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]bcollege[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]florida[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]georgia tech[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]300[/TD]
[TD]244[/TD]
[TD]194[/TD]
[TD]197[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.56[/TD]
[TD]21.89[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33.3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Pts per First Down vs Bowl Teams[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5463918[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Pts Allowed per First Down vs Bowl Teams[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.2385787[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts expected Marshall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46.25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]pts expected FSU[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33.3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]difference[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.95[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts allowed expected Marshall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31.75[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts allowed expected FSU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]difference[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4.6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Line[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Marshall favored by 8 points ?[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]I must have done it wrong?[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I'm sure I am missing something so if you have a minute to clarify for me. It seems like all the math with first downs is wasted time because your numbers are the same if you just take total points / games played and you get the same numbers as your FD avg x pt per FD.

Using your numbers:

Bama O scores 482 in 13 games = 37.07 ppg
* your first down formula says they will score 36*
Bama D allows 216 in 13 games = 16.62 ppg
*your first down formula says they will allow 16*

Ohio St O scores 588 in 13 games = 45.23 ppg
*your first down formula says they will score 47*
Ohio St D allows 275 in 13 games = 21.15
*your first down formula says they will allow 21*

It seems like the same thing right? But just taking a teams scoring average and pts against average compared with their opponent isn't all that great of a tool is it?

Again, I'm sure I am missing something and would appreciate any insight.

Glad to respond.
No its not the same. I just used season totals to show the example of the math. Remember, I said you have to use only the bowl teams that they played. Then you use the road games as a priority. If you of the contrast between the season games , then the bowl-level teams games, then the road bowl-level teams games, you start to see the true effects of competition levels and away games, as these are all away games for both teams in a bowl game. Then after all those stats are done, you start to see what happens as the yds per points vary. To make it simpler to see, the home field stats are usually better than the away stats. But when you dissect the below average teams games and only get a better reading from bowlers then the differences show up. This is why when I ca[p a bowl game I first see who played how many bowl level teams and where. If you simply chose the team with the best points and that team happened, to have played 13 games against all non-bowl quality teams, then the numbers would be way off. You then would likely get a bad read on how good each team is.

Ohio Sate and Bama both have similar points scored on the reg season and when playing bowl level teams they are within a pt or 2 each on offense and defense. But looking a bit closer - Bama scored 20 or less in 3 of 4 road games that are against teams in bowls. To me thats a huge difference in who they really are. Also, when you see how much more or less 1st downs are made or allowed on defense, and then see how many points are generated you can start to use the different amounts of 1st down and mulitply then to a potential outcome. If everything was equal between the two teams, then the Buckeyes would win by 6 and then the extra 10 points is a margin for the underdog to have a better chance to win ATS as well. If we reversed the Numbers on both teams as I showed in my example, then Bama would clearly have a 6 point advantage and still have trouble covering the 10 point spread.
Things are not equal as it is right now and that is why you need to use as many bowl -level teams that each has played. If all we had to go on was Bama playing 13 Division II teams, that would show us nothing when playing a team with a winning record that made it to a bowl game.

Hope this helped to clear it up a bit.
 
So you are saying the line for ohio state and Alabama is off 16 points?

If so, "Exit stage left" for me but good luck.

Incidentally, the national average is 1.385. I use that to look at how lucky and unlucky teams have gotten with their scoring over the course of the year, accounting/adjusting for teams with big play capability and teams who are going to grind it out in pieces, accounting for weather and accounting for quality (and matchup) of opponent. I think the national average is a complete number that accounts for most anomalies of luck. I love first downs as a stat but your line creation using it is flawed in my opinion. But there are many different ways to approach things and if it wins for you, I am happy for you. Can't say that I have tracked it.


Do you use power ratings? Those are probably the most useful tool in handicapping bowl games.


Clown. No Im not saying the line is off by 16 points. I was showing an example by using ALL the regular season games as a starting point for contrast. One problem in College is that its hard to put two teams with close enough true comparison in a bowl game.. The won/loss record is meaningless often. That is why everyone wants a new playoff system in College .
Is Mississippi better than Bama? Is VTech better th Ohio State? Those two teams are the only games they both lost to. Yet "rankings" by the NCAA says there not or they would be ranked higher, I guess.

The only problem with your national average is that you are using losers as a comparison to winners and averaging them out. Thats one reason that bowl game are lopsided at the end on the scoreboard.
 
Gee man, I'm not sure I quite follow but I hope you crush these bowl games. Would love to see the buckeyes win
 
[TABLE="width: 1235"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Marshall Games Played[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Florida State Games Played[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Marshall[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bowl Opponent[/TD]
[TD]Pts for[/TD]
[TD]pts against[/TD]
[TD]FD for[/TD]
[TD]FD Allowed[/TD]
[TD]fd per game vs bowl[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]fd allowed per game vs bowl[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"] pts expected[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts allowed expected[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rice[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WKU[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Latech[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NIU[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]185[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]28.75[/TD]
[TD]22.75[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46.25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31.75[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Pts per First Down vs Bowl Teams[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.6086957[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Pts Allowed per First Down vs Bowl Teams[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.3956044[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 7"]Do you remove a game for skewing? What if that game went to overtime? Double overtime?[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 7"]In the case of Ohio State for instance, would you remove the Wisconsin game from the analysis?[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 13"]Isn't creating a line based on a few bowl opponents in and of itself misleading to you on several levels? Do you apply all bowl eligible teams? For instance, GA Southern would be favored over every sun belt team that actually went to a bowl but they were not eligible. Or for instance, Virginia ... who would be favored over every bowl team that came out of the MAC or Sunbelt but did not achieve bowl eligibility. Do you include Virginia as a bowl team? If not, how do you reconcile that?[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Florida State[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bowl Opponent[/TD]
[TD]Pts for[/TD]
[TD]pts against[/TD]
[TD]FD for[/TD]
[TD]FD Allowed[/TD]
[TD]fd per game vs bowl[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]fd allowed per game vs bowl[/TD]
[TD]pts expected[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts allowed expected[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oklahoma ST[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]clemson[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ncsu[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ndame[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ville[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]miami fl[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]bcollege[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]florida[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]georgia tech[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]300[/TD]
[TD]244[/TD]
[TD]194[/TD]
[TD]197[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.56[/TD]
[TD]21.89[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33.3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Pts per First Down vs Bowl Teams[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5463918[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Pts Allowed per First Down vs Bowl Teams[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.2385787[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts expected Marshall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46.25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]pts expected FSU[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33.3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]difference[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.95[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts allowed expected Marshall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31.75[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]pts allowed expected FSU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 3"]Marshall favored by 8 points ?[/TD]
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I cant use these because the two are not ranked in a similar range. Marshall is unranked . There is some value in trusting that the NCAA has some accuracy in matching the teams up. How Silly would it be if marshall was Playing Fla State today? What line would you say? Maybe 30? Marshall played teams with a winning percentage of only 40 %. How many team did Marshall play that were ranked?

I do believe that power ranking by the NCAA are fair value to matching up the bowl games. Or as close as you can get until they have a bigger playoff picture to get team to play each other.
 
Glad to respond.
No its not the same. I just used season totals to show the example of the math. Remember, I said you have to use only the bowl teams that they played. Then you use the road games as a priority. If you of the contrast between the season games , then the bowl-level teams games, then the road bowl-level teams games, you start to see the true effects of competition levels and away games, as these are all away games for both teams in a bowl game. Then after all those stats are done, you start to see what happens as the yds per points vary. To make it simpler to see, the home field stats are usually better than the away stats. But when you dissect the below average teams games and only get a better reading from bowlers then the differences show up. This is why when I ca[p a bowl game I first see who played how many bowl level teams and where. If you simply chose the team with the best points and that team happened, to have played 13 games against all non-bowl quality teams, then the numbers would be way off. You then would likely get a bad read on how good each team is.

Ohio Sate and Bama both have similar points scored on the reg season and when playing bowl level teams they are within a pt or 2 each on offense and defense. But looking a bit closer - Bama scored 20 or less in 3 of 4 road games that are against teams in bowls. To me thats a huge difference in who they really are. Also, when you see how much more or less 1st downs are made or allowed on defense, and then see how many points are generated you can start to use the different amounts of 1st down and mulitply then to a potential outcome. If everything was equal between the two teams, then the Buckeyes would win by 6 and then the extra 10 points is a margin for the underdog to have a better chance to win ATS as well. If we reversed the Numbers on both teams as I showed in my example, then Bama would clearly have a 6 point advantage and still have trouble covering the 10 point spread.
Things are not equal as it is right now and that is why you need to use as many bowl -level teams that each has played. If all we had to go on was Bama playing 13 Division II teams, that would show us nothing when playing a team with a winning record that made it to a bowl game.

Hope this helped to clear it up a bit.


Maybe it's me, but it looks like you are setting parameters to fit the result you want. Alabama scored 20 or less in 3 of the 4 road games this year. True. They also gave up 23, 13, and 13 in those games, and 20 in the road game that doesn't count for you. In Ohio St's 5 road games, they only gave up less than 24 once, and it was against a service academy. Is that indicative of Ohio St's defense? Ohio St only played one offense as good or better statistically than Alabama, and gave up 37. Also, no mention that 86% of Ohio St's total offense from the QB position this season will be in street clothes.

Sorry to clutter your pick thread. Feel free to move this discussion to my SEC thread as it is a discussion thread, and not a pick thread as yours is.
 
Maybe it's me, but it looks like you are setting parameters to fit the result you want. Alabama scored 20 or less in 3 of the 4 road games this year. True. They also gave up 23, 13, and 13 in those games, and 20 in the road game that doesn't count for you. In Ohio St's 5 road games, they only gave up less than 24 once, and it was against a service academy. Is that indicative of Ohio St's defense? Ohio St only played one offense as good or better statistically than Alabama, and gave up 37. Also, no mention that 86% of Ohio St's total offense from the QB position this season will be in street clothes.

Sorry to clutter your pick thread. Feel free to move this discussion to my SEC thread as it is a discussion thread, and not a pick thread as yours is.

Its my thread so I don't mind the clutter.

You have great points.
But here is my impression. First of all- in two of the road games ARK and Tenn are unranked. Wouldn't you expect Bama to demolish an unrated team? Second. LSU is ranked #23. (that being generous in my opinion just because they are from the SEC and because they are LSU.) Now you can go look up the stats on them and you will see that LSU was ranked #2 in defense, yet only 58th in offense. So what strong threat did they present to Bama? Yet Bama struggled with them. Last team is Mississippi. Ranked #9. First in defense and 47th in offense. yet Ole Miss is a dog to TCU coming up this week. Plus Miss beat Bama, lost to LSU by 3 and beat Miss State.
You take all three of those games within the SEC and how are they a dog to TCU? In my opinion its like Ive said early on in this Bowl thread. I think the whole SEC is diluted this year and if they weren't, they be rolling along as huge favorites in every game. Yet they've been dogs early and now I believe they are over priced in games coming. The LSU line with NDame is suspect.
 
I agree that the SEC isn't that strong, or at least there is significant parity. But that doesn't really mean anything in the individual games. What's the difference between Penn St and LSU? Not much IMO, other than LSU's significant talent edge. But statistically I'd wager they are similar. And the Tenn game you reference, it was 27-0 midway through 2nd quarter. Credit them for fighting back, but Alabama was on cruise control before they even faced a 4th down.

More than ever, college football is a week to week league, and I think we all make the mistake sometimes of looking at stats and rankings, and lose focus on the individual team matchups. Also have to factor in growth of team as the season progresses. Nobody thinks that Ohio St is still the same team that got worked at home by Va Tech. Gave up 37 points to a team that went stretches of 3-4 games without scoring 37. Alabama is not the same team that lost to Ole Miss and almost lost to Arkansas. If our overrated TE had made just a little effort, we would have beaten Ole Miss. My point is that I don't think you can take small sample sizes to make general conclusions, especially when the variables are manipulated in a way to meet the desired conclusion.

I think Ole Miss will put up a much better fight than people expect. There are several future NFL players on that defense. I don't know TCU's roster, but I doubt they have more than 3 on the whole team. LSU will destroy ND IMO
 
I agree that the SEC isn't that strong, or at least there is significant parity. But that doesn't really mean anything in the individual games. What's the difference between Penn St and LSU? Not much IMO, other than LSU's significant talent edge. But statistically I'd wager they are similar. And the Tenn game you reference, it was 27-0 midway through 2nd quarter. Credit them for fighting back, but Alabama was on cruise control before they even faced a 4th down.

More than ever, college football is a week to week league, and I think we all make the mistake sometimes of looking at stats and rankings, and lose focus on the individual team matchups. Also have to factor in growth of team as the season progresses. Nobody thinks that Ohio St is still the same team that got worked at home by Va Tech. Gave up 37 points to a team that went stretches of 3-4 games without scoring 37. Alabama is not the same team that lost to Ole Miss and almost lost to Arkansas. If our overrated TE had made just a little effort, we would have beaten Ole Miss. My point is that I don't think you can take small sample sizes to make general conclusions, especially when the variables are manipulated in a way to meet the desired conclusion.

I think Ole Miss will put up a much better fight than people expect. There are several future NFL players on that defense. I don't know TCU's roster, but I doubt they have more than 3 on the whole team. LSU will destroy ND IMO

Thanks gps. I appreciate the feedback. You make great points about a week-to-week league. You're right. Small samples can be indicators or misleading situations so it depends on what you win with when capping. I don't have all the answers, but I do feel that all stats mean something. Maybe all won't produce the outcome we want but we use what we feel is important.
One big question I have always had is, what does it take to be ranked in the NCAA? Wins or Stats? So often winning teams get ruled out and some winning teams are over rated.

In my points per first down subject I have always had better results in pro games. The NFL is a more consistent league with playoffs because all the teams have a decent chance to win on any given day. Pointspreads are easier to find an advantage in NFL because winning teams usually have played common opponents and you get a bit better read.
 
On a 16-3 Bowl Sides Run.

Posting Jan 1st plays now.
 
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