vanzack
Pretty much a regular
YTD record: 5-2 (this includes my total record from over at covers - I didnt post my monday night loss here but will include it in my record)
Generally, I see lots of value on the board this week. Overreactors to week 1 performances always give some week 2 values, but this week there is a lot.
1. Oakland (waiting on line but 12+) at Balt.
2. Cleveland +10 at Cincy.
3. Carolina PK at Minny.
4. Giants +3 at Philly.
5. Tampa (waiting on line but 5.5+) at Atlanta.
6. Green Bay +2.5 (matchbook) vs Saints.
7. San Fran +3 vs St Louis.
I will be glad to discuss any of these but I think you will see the common theme here.....
A lot of what I do in early weeks is ask "what if last week didnt exist". So lets set a line if GB was opening the season at home against the Saints in Week 1. I think GB would have been about a 2 - 3 point fav. So right away I see value in the line. The saints arent as good as they looked last week and the Pack arent as bad. If gb is able to execute their gameplan, Favre wont even be a big part of it. Why will the saints be able to stop the GB ground game? I dont see it. Before the browns game, everyone was saying how the Saints D was one of the worst in the league and I dont know why that has changed.
So in order of importance to me:
1. The spot for both teams. Saints second road game in a row, GB second home game. Saints won last week GB lost.
2. The line value created by overreactions to last weeks performances.
3. GB ground game should get going against NO and Favre shouldnt have to pass.
All of that makes my play GB +2.5
GL all
Generally, I see lots of value on the board this week. Overreactors to week 1 performances always give some week 2 values, but this week there is a lot.
1. Oakland (waiting on line but 12+) at Balt.
2. Cleveland +10 at Cincy.
3. Carolina PK at Minny.
4. Giants +3 at Philly.
5. Tampa (waiting on line but 5.5+) at Atlanta.
6. Green Bay +2.5 (matchbook) vs Saints.
7. San Fran +3 vs St Louis.
I will be glad to discuss any of these but I think you will see the common theme here.....
A lot of what I do in early weeks is ask "what if last week didnt exist". So lets set a line if GB was opening the season at home against the Saints in Week 1. I think GB would have been about a 2 - 3 point fav. So right away I see value in the line. The saints arent as good as they looked last week and the Pack arent as bad. If gb is able to execute their gameplan, Favre wont even be a big part of it. Why will the saints be able to stop the GB ground game? I dont see it. Before the browns game, everyone was saying how the Saints D was one of the worst in the league and I dont know why that has changed.
So in order of importance to me:
1. The spot for both teams. Saints second road game in a row, GB second home game. Saints won last week GB lost.
2. The line value created by overreactions to last weeks performances.
3. GB ground game should get going against NO and Favre shouldnt have to pass.
All of that makes my play GB +2.5
GL all