Games Im betting Sunday Sept 17 week 2....

[vanzack]

YTD record: 5-2 (this includes my total record from over at covers - I didnt post my monday night loss here but will include it in my record)

Generally, I see lots of value on the board this week. Overreactors to week 1 performances always give some week 2 values, but this week there is a lot.

1. Oakland (waiting on line but 12+) at Balt.
2. Cleveland +10 at Cincy.
3. Carolina PK at Minny.
4. Giants +3 at Philly.
5. Tampa (waiting on line but 5.5+) at Atlanta.
6. Green Bay +2.5 (matchbook) vs Saints.
7. San Fran +3 vs St Louis.

I will be glad to discuss any of these but I think you will see the common theme here.....

A lot of what I do in early weeks is ask "what if last week didnt exist". So lets set a line if GB was opening the season at home against the Saints in Week 1. I think GB would have been about a 2 - 3 point fav. So right away I see value in the line. The saints arent as good as they looked last week and the Pack arent as bad. If gb is able to execute their gameplan, Favre wont even be a big part of it. Why will the saints be able to stop the GB ground game? I dont see it. Before the browns game, everyone was saying how the Saints D was one of the worst in the league and I dont know why that has changed.

So in order of importance to me:
1. The spot for both teams. Saints second road game in a row, GB second home game. Saints won last week GB lost.
2. The line value created by overreactions to last weeks performances.
3. GB ground game should get going against NO and Favre shouldnt have to pass.

All of that makes my play GB +2.5

GL all

 

[JumpOnBoard]

agree w/ almost all of those and also agree w/ the reasoning...I'm not going to play Oak or GB, as I just don't feel u can get a real good read on what they are doing...but the value is squarely on that side..

I will be on CAR and TB for sure....CAR is in a better spot and TB has just owned Vick and that line is really inflated from week one performances..

CLE has played Cincy really tough and Crennel has gameplaned Carson very well, but Rudi has ran nuts vs the Brownies and their Oline looked very bad and Cincy's was extremely active...I wouldn't feel comfortable on either side of that one, but certainly more comfortable on the Cincy side...

I most likely will be on SF as well...even vs good STL teams, SF has owned that series...STL red zone ineptness is certainly going to make them a road fave....

GL this weekend bro...

 

[Killa]

vanzack- Steve Smith?

 

[tru]

vanzack i know for a fact wit tha way shit is right now my card will look very close to what u got. good luck, lets take some more money this week.

 

[vanzack]

vanzack- Steve Smith?

This play is in line with all of my other plays this week. If this was week 1 - what would this line be? I say Carolina -4.

Is carolina as bad as they looked last week? Everyone and their mothers predicted a SB run and now they stink because of one bad performance? Defensive teams like this bounce back bigtime after losses like the one they took - and if you think this defense will allow Minny to do what Wash just gifted them - I think you are wrong. I see a full out effort and defensive attack from the panthers that we didnt see last week - and a fairly easy win through turnovers and defensive pressure.

Brad Johnson? Washington made him look great. Did you see the pass rush scheme employed by Wash? The two outside rushers consistently took too wide of angles and all Brad did was take one baby step inside the pocket and the two rushers met each other behind him. It happened all game.

Carolina will put pressure on him and he will make mistakes. Dont buy the Monday Night hype that the crew was feeding - not saying you are - but they kept saying how Johnson was a great "game manager". I dont buy it for a second.

I would love for smith to play and be healthy - but I like this play even without him.

GL

:shake:

 

[The Farm]

not gonna lie van.....
Against ya on a few...

GL in week 2

 

[Santacapper]

LIke that Bucs play too Van. Im with you on the case of not that bad vs not that good adjustments in week 2.

I teased up SF, St Lou isnt a good road team, and they still havent scored an offensive touchdown.

GL

 

[horses]

Love Green Bay Van; one thing you didn't mention is New Orleans is on MNF the following week for the 1st time in forever. GL.

Also with you on Tampa Bay.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

GL Vanzack

like and agree with majority of the card.:shake:

 

[smh212]

I incorporate many of the same stategies that you do in week 2. I always say that if week 1 is good for anything, it's giving you value in week #2.

I played Tampa and Green Bay already. I'm waiting for that "13.5" to appear in Baltimore. Doubt I'll find one, but some of the square books are charging -115 for the "13", so you never know.

Good luck today Van.

 

[G-Man]

You should have won the Carolina play - no doubt.

 

[SteelBucsFan]

Van where`s your plays this week ? your 1 SOB but i enjoy your posts ...hope you like jets and gb......peace brother cincy + 7 value should be cincy -5 , jax +7 should be jax -2 but its not jax value +9..glta

 

[barmeezee]

you are gorgeous... good luck bro