Game #7 Discussion - Pacers @ Thunder

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Time to start an independent thread for this winner take all Game #7 !!



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We have two days to prepare. Let's look at every angle and try to find some prop winners at the minimum!

Adjustments will be huge.

Can the Thunder increase that assist total?

Can the Thunder get hot from 3 at home?

Was Haliburton and the Achilles (?) injury simply running on adrenaline tonight?.

Where is the value on the total? We're down 12.5 points from the first game total now.

Talk to me!!
 
OT but kinda on...

Coaching.

So, I was just watching a reel of the last two minutes of Cleveland and Golden State playing G7 back in 2016.

What the heck was Kerr doing late in that game? He had two timeouts and left the series with one in his pocket. The one possession I understand letting them come up but after Barnes commits the 'foul to give' that's a time you should use a timeout to set up the 14 second defense (18.7 to play) and discuss how to proceed.

Nope. Nothing.

Credit LeBron with the block and Ky with the 3 but goodness Kerr was not good late that night.

Which brings me back to Sunday night. Who were trusting??

I need the game to be relatively close and I know who I'm trusting from there.

The next question -- two days to prep -- which coach makes the better adjustments?
 
Will the stripes dictate the game ? That is the only question.....these teams pretty even, but still think Pacers are better as of now....im obviously a fan
 
guinness said:
Will the stripes dictate the game ? That is the only question.....these teams pretty even, but still think Pacers are better as of now....im obviously a fan
Click to expand...
They can absolutely be a factor.

I hope they let the teams play.

That favors Indiana a bit, imo.

Go Pacers.
 
I hate to use the word destined on a gambling forum. How can ya not take the points at the very least?
I’ve bet less NBA this year than in a decade and was probably for the best.
 
In 12 Hours Since This Thread Started Line Has Gone From 8.5 to 7.5

(Couple Of 8's Out There)

Which Team Will Be Playing With Puckered Up Butts?!

Whose playing loose?

Whose Playing The "No One Expected Us To Be Here Anyway! Let's Go Have Fun!"
 
This series has become dominated by home court. Hasn't been close last few games. I've made nice money on TJ props but value there is gone. Haven't been able to lay large okc lines. See if anyone finds a good prop.
 
I think J-Dub Over 22.5 points is solid... From getting 40+ points and being mentioned with the greatest to being -40 in +/- and setting worst ever +/- rating in just one game... he is the type that should rebound from that...
 
Either way, I'm glad we got Game 7. Both teams are so much fun and not like any of the champs recent years - so we have epic series in the Finals.
 
You guys have a faulty memory of Game 4. Indy's big win probability was with under a minute left in the 3rd quarter, they were up 10 and the % was 78.7. OKC only needed 4 minutes to tie it at 89. From there Indy never led by more than 4. OKC took the lead for good with 2 minutes left and pulled away late.

That kind of comeback happens multiple times every week in the NBA. You can call it a meltdown (I disagree) but OKC always had a 1 in 5 chance or better of pulling that one out.

Compare to Game 1. OKC was up 13 with 9:37 left, win prob 97.8%. Indy sliced it to four with 5:42 left, 78.6 same as Indy game 4. Only from there OKC pushed it back 9 with 2:52 left (88%). Indy pops 2 threes but OKC still up 5 with 1:27 left (88%). At various times over the next minute OKC was better than 90% to win. Indy's first lead OF THE GAME occurs in the final second.

Indy pulled off a 50-1 or higher comeback. The two are not even comparable.
 
Gandolf said:
You guys have a faulty memory of Game 4. Indy's big win probability was with under a minute left in the 3rd quarter, they were up 10 and the % was 78.7. OKC only needed 4 minutes to tie it at 89. From there Indy never led by more than 4. OKC took the lead for good with 2 minutes left and pulled away late.

That kind of comeback happens multiple times every week in the NBA. You can call it a meltdown (I disagree) but OKC always had a 1 in 5 chance or better of pulling that one out.

Compare to Game 1. OKC was up 13 with 9:37 left, win prob 97.8%. Indy sliced it to four with 5:42 left, 78.6 same as Indy game 4. Only from there OKC pushed it back 9 with 2:52 left (88%). Indy pops 2 threes but OKC still up 5 with 1:27 left (88%). At various times over the next minute OKC was better than 90% to win. Indy's first lead OF THE GAME occurs in the final second.

Indy pulled off a 50-1 or higher comeback. The two are not even comparable.
Click to expand...
We're not comparing that...

But this series is pretty close and OKC in 5 wasn't the best projection TBH.
 
Gandolf said:
You guys have a faulty memory of Game 4. Indy's big win probability was with under a minute left in the 3rd quarter, they were up 10 and the % was 78.7. OKC only needed 4 minutes to tie it at 89. From there Indy never led by more than 4. OKC took the lead for good with 2 minutes left and pulled away late.

That kind of comeback happens multiple times every week in the NBA. You can call it a meltdown (I disagree) but OKC always had a 1 in 5 chance or better of pulling that one out.

Compare to Game 1. OKC was up 13 with 9:37 left, win prob 97.8%. Indy sliced it to four with 5:42 left, 78.6 same as Indy game 4. Only from there OKC pushed it back 9 with 2:52 left (88%). Indy pops 2 threes but OKC still up 5 with 1:27 left (88%). At various times over the next minute OKC was better than 90% to win. Indy's first lead OF THE GAME occurs in the final second.

Indy pulled off a 50-1 or higher comeback. The two are not even comparable.
Click to expand...

Yeah not close those 2. And if OKC didn’t lose a -5000 Gm 1 it was over a week ago
 
Frank has his flat 7 now.

Line movement has been something.

Quite curious what this does towards game time.

Even the ML is reasonable for the favorite now. That's obviously what I've been watching for my hedge possibilities...
 
Ok, I have no idea what happens today. I like both teams and I think both deserve to win in their own way. Not a fan of either, so don't have any special feelings attached...
I do think Thunder deserve more. Younger, but built so right and so well and deserve a shot at a dynasty... But I'm sure Pacers don't care.
While we all remember that Game 7 usually a tight one, here I can easily see Thunder rolling. In 3 games at home so far, Thunder been pretty dominant in all 3 and only heroics changed the dynamic in Game 1.
Still... it's so hard to take points against the Pacers. This team doesn't quit and Game 7 of the Finals - they will leave everything on the floor and yes, the longer Thunder can't break them or if Pacers trail big and manage a comeback - pressure will start to mount for the young Thunder.

I think ML Thunder win it, but have no intention playing it. I do like few props tonight:
1) Turner Under 17.5 P&R - Rebounds been a huge struggle for him and while he scores more on the road in this series, 17.5 gives enough room for me
2) J-Dub Over 22.5 points - Historically good Game 5, historically bad Game 6. This won't be just on him, but I think he will show up tonight. Him, SGA, Caruso and Dort are the guys I expect the most from tonight.
Those two I took. Two more thinking about:
3) That's why I like the Over 11.5 P+R for Dort - almost a veteran here - should be there in everything.
4) Also like Over 6.5 rebounds for Hartenstein - just usually delivers at home...
 
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