Game 3 Situation

B

Blue_Chip

Money Addict
I do not fundamentally analyze the NBA, that is better left to guys like B.A.R. and rod_steel. I am good at waiting for what I call "automatic" bets or system plays. For the NBA I use an angle to bet during the regular season, and I wait for a situation to arise during the playoffs. The situation I look for in the NBA playoffs is, I think, a relatively common thought among bettors.

Where in a best of seven series two games are played at one team's court and then the next two games are on the other team's court. If the home team has won their first two games, I bet against them when they become the visiting team. That is, I want to bet that the team behind will make the series two-to-one.

Again, the principle is that the team that is up two-to-nothing has a slight psychological letdown, and the other team, which has its back against the wall, is fired up in front of their home fans. Historically, this bet has done much better than 50 percent. This is true even if you are laying the points (and they usually will be the favorite). One warning, however: Books have become wise to this situation and now usually adjust the line a couple of points, so it is not as strong as it once was.

Regular Season: 16-6-1 (73%)

Post Season: 9-3 (75%)
Round 1: 4-2
Conference Semis: 4-0
Conference Finals: 1-0
NBA Finals: 0-1
 
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Good post. I also think the refs give the benefit of the doubt to the team down 0-2, especially when they're at home. You can put the Suns in this category thanks to their sorry ass 2H showing.
 
This is true even if you are laying the points (and they usually will be the favorite). One warning, however: Books have become wise to this situation and now usually adjust the line a couple of points, so it is not as strong as it once was.


PHX -5.5 ? in game 3

Maybe.....
 
Take it for what its worth...

Now..Utah...and Houston...diff situation...books compensated huge
 
B.A.R. said:
Books DID NOT ADJUST cle-wash with that 4.5..its a perfect reverse off game 2
Click to expand...

I noticed that too. I think books sometimes adjust but not always, and this is a case where if you simply take the power ratings, minus Cavs HCA, add Wiz HCA, and you get the line for this game.

I think Houston is a lost cause, everyone knows it, and that is why you see the line inflation with the reverse situation. Utah sweeps...
 
I have to agree with you here Blue...and something that strikes me as odd here as well. Cleveland at home opens game as 2 pt fav, closes at 4-4.5. Cleveland Game 2 opens at 2-2.5, and closes there.

They sweep at home, and now go to Washington and they are 5 pt dogs? I was thinking 2.5-3.

I think LBJ gives Washington some hope here in game 3, and wins game 4, and closes these bitches out in Game 5.
 
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something tells me oddsmakers know what they're doing in setting the lines according to the series.

2007
game 1, cleveland -12.5
game 2, cleveland -11
game 3, cleveland -5
game 4, cleveland -6.5

2008
game 1, cleveland -4
game 2, cleveland -2
game 3, washington -5
game 4, washington ???? (-3.5ish or -3)
 
To expound on post #6...

Sagarin pure points (predictor) rating:
Cleveland = 90.31
Washington = 89.70
HCA = 3.54 (was 3.49 for Gm 1)

Washington -3 should be the line according to Sagarin ratings
Washington -4.5 is the line according to oddsmakers

Quoted above in post #1:
Books have become wise to this situation and now usually adjust the line a couple of points, so it is not as strong as it once was.

The books adjusted 1.5 pts as I expected.
 
Blue_Chip said:
I noticed that too. I think books sometimes adjust but not always, and this is a case where if you simply take the power ratings, minus Cavs HCA, add Wiz HCA, and you get the line for this game.

I think Houston is a lost cause, everyone knows it, and that is why you see the line inflation with the reverse situation. Utah sweeps...
Click to expand...
:shake:
 
nropp11 said:
something tells me oddsmakers know what they're doing in setting the lines according to the series.

2007
game 1, cleveland -12.5
game 2, cleveland -11
game 3, cleveland -5
game 4, cleveland -6.5

2008
game 1, cleveland -4
game 2, cleveland -2
game 3, washington -5
game 4, washington ???? (-3.5ish or -3)
Click to expand...

Game one in 2008 was 2.5 and game 2 was 1.5 fwiw
 
Updated lines are in post #1...

As I expected these lines are inflated. If I remain bored at work, I will post the mathematical work-up of the power ratings + HCA, so everyone can see the price of inflation on these lines.
 
Tonight's games:

HCA = 3.57 (Gm1=3.49 / Gm2=3.54 ... so as you can see, the HCA is increasingly important)

Pure points (predictor) rating:
Orlando = 95.09
Toronto = 91.91
Cleveland = 90.31
Washington = 89.69

According to the math, the lines should be Toronto -.5 & Washington -3. Instead, we see Toronto -4 & Washington -5 (been bid up, I first saw at -4.5). So, as expected, the lines have been inflated 3.5pts in the case of Toronto and 2pts on Washington.

Also, although it does not apply to the situation BAR and I discussed it above, the math points to Utah -6 but we see -8.5 at most books, showing a 2.5pt inflated price.

This used to be a good angle; however, you must bet the lines immediately after release, and that is assuming they are not released already inflated. Because of the inflation I deem this angle ineffective so far this post season, but I will still track for historical sake. In fact, I am on Cleveland ML tonight because getting 2:1 on my money for a team that will win the series 94% of the time is value. Also, I sometimes get intuitive feels for teams, and when the camera scrolled across the Washington bench as Gm2 came to a close, I saw a loss of motivation. Cleveland has crushed Washington's hopes of a competitive series.
 
Tonight's games:

HCA=3.62 (Gm1=3.49 / Gm2=3.54 / Gm3=3.57 ... HCA is increasingly important)

Pure points (predictor) rating:
San An = 95.39
Phoenix = 95.06
Dallas = 94.53
New Orleans = 96.42

According to the math, the lines should be Phoenix -3.5 & Dallas -1.5. Instead, we see Dallas -5 & Phoenix -6.5. So, as expected, the lines have been inflated 3.5pts in the case of Dallas and 3pts on Phoenix.

From yesterday: "I sometimes get intuitive feels for teams, and when the camera scrolled across the Washington bench as Gm2 came to a close, I saw a loss of motivation. Cleveland has crushed Washington's hopes of a competitive series."
:36_11_6: I better stick with angles rather than fundamental analysis.
 
lol it's all good bro. it could have easily been....

From yesterday: "....and when the camera scrolled across the Washington bench as Gm2 came to a close, I saw a team who couldn't wait to go home and sleep in their own beds. A team who wanted to go home and return the favor and beat their opposition by 30+."
 
1-1 on the night
4-2 to finish the first round of play

Time to wait for the situation during the second round of play...
 
your my new best friend, i haven't tried research yet for system nba plays but i like the idea and think it can be profitable. BOL to you.
 
Second round addition:

Utah -4

We will also add Cleveland to the mix if the Cavs cannot pull out a win in game two, in which case, every series in the second round would have qualified for this situational play.
 
god i have a hard time believe the Lakers will drop this one. The ML looks tasty to me at this point, but i think i'll lay off.

good luck tonight
 
Whew! that was close

Utah -4
Money%20II.gif


3-0 in second round

Cleveland -1.5 pending...
 
4-0 in second round

Time to wait until the situation arises again during the conference finals (if it ever does).

GL with your plays until then, gentlemen.
 
I was out of town this weekend so I could not post, but a play became available yesterday...

Spurs -5.5

The play was cash money. The only opportunity left this season for the situation will be in the finals... we shall see.

Overall record this post season is 9-2
 
BUMP!

LA folding like a lawn chair in Beantown gives this angle life one last time this season.

It should be ri-donk-ulous how inflated this line will be before tip, but that's how the chips fall when following this angle.

:popcorn:
 
Chip- I grabbed the Celts at +9.5 -110 feel this will adjust down, maybe middle. Thought's?
 
Chip- I grabbed the Celts at +9.5 -110 feel this will adjust down, maybe middle. Thought's?
Click to expand...

I think the line continues to move higher on LA. After Boston can win on the road and/or the Lakers lose at home, then the public will give up on the Lakers. The line seems ridiculous, but the public is not done betting LA; they are chasing losses, remember the cliche "the third time's a charm."

GL Terp
 
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Thanks, I guess since I already committed if it goes up to +11 I'll throw another Unit on it.
 
lovin it! Any lean on the total? I'm thinking over every game in LA but with this spread and a possible blow-out...its just a lean for now
 
Blue_Chip said:
A correlation between the over and a LA victory seems to make the most sense. We both expect a LA blowout win, so I agree with your over lean. GL Measy
Click to expand...

what would tha numbers say in this situation sofar this year in tha playoffs? team down 0-2 goin home whats tha o/u done in those games thats fit sofar, an even if theres a chance what did it do in tha reg season?
 
tru said:
what would tha numbers say in this situation sofar this year in tha playoffs? team down 0-2 goin home whats tha o/u done in those games thats fit sofar, an even if theres a chance what did it do in tha reg season?
Click to expand...

most teams that were down 0-2 in the playoffs this year were under teams no matter what the case (cavs, spurs, etc) but this is the lakers...far different and thats why they are in the finals...or maybe its just because i dont believe in trends but play each game 1 by 1
 
Lakers are winning game 3, and not just winning it is war now-- They will try and win this game in convincing fashion, so the CElts know that this series is going to be 3-2 leaving LA--

I actually do think now that Stern is a mischievous bastard, the home teams cannot get more calls to make it obvious-- Lakers were playing the same D vs Deron WIlliams, Boozer, Manu, Duncan and were not getting called fouls against--

It seems that STERN is trying to make this series go 7, and be an epic battle, and he ensured a longer series by giving the Celts game 2, by telling the refs to call ticky tack fouls vs LAKERS.

I think Lakers get 2 gift wrapped wins in LAKERS and possibly a slight advantage in the 3rd game, making the series 3-2 for one of the teams.
 
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