Game 1 of the second round - NBA discussion thread

[divol]

[TABLE="class: linesTbl, width: 934"]
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - TUE 5/6[/h][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Tue 5/6[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]705[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Brooklyn Nets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+7 1.971[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 3.700[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 191.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]706[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Miami Heat[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-7 1.935[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.326[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 191.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Tue 5/6[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]707[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+6.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 3.560[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 205.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]06:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]708[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-6.5 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.345[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 205.5 1.926[/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[austinhous]

I like the Clips ATS. I think both teams going 7 games and coming in on short rest favors the team getting points. Especially after what the Clips have done as the road dog this year.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

My pov is be wary of teams coming off a peak (game 7 win), because there's only one way to go off a peak performance.

OKC/LAC features both teams off a peak, so whoever loses will allow the finger of hindsight to be pointed at them and say, they fell further off their peak.

OKC is off 2 elim game wins, so there's no argument the peak they're coming off is higher, potentially leading to a bigger fall. But the criticism they received (esp. Durantula) looked/looks to galvanise them (little argument they played most of their best ball over the final 2 games, Z-Bo present or not. I don't believe his presence would've prevented OKC winning the series). I doubt they're unaware if they start lousy vs. LAC that that criticism will return in a flash. They have something of the we've-something-to-prove mentality about them, which potentially mitigates their falling off the peak they reached vs. Mempiss.

No question GS suffered for not having Bogut, I'm not impressed with LA being unable to put those guys away in under 7 games with his efforts to counter them being absent (just as I'm not impressed with their game 7 effort in and of itself). I thought LA were frauds (re actual title contenders) before the playoffs began, my opinion hasn't changed on anything I saw w/them vs. GS. But they do catch OKC in a vulnerable spot in game 1 (off 2 elim game wins. They obv. take their toll more than usual playoff wins).

 

[divol]

I think that the fact that Thunder won both in a blowout, while Clippers had to sweat their last two games, gives Thunder the edge here.
I also think that Thunder will try to make their lives easiee this time and win both first two home games.

Somehow I doubt that one of the road teams will get a win in the first game of one of the four series.

 

[CASH]

lets talk about X and O's..

who is covering Durant for the clippers- certainly no one like tony allen, price and even lee - probably matt barnes and he should get 2 quick fouls and a T...

 

[Greencastle]

Wizards vs Pacers

2 best players
Wall vs George - slight edge to Wall

Big men
Gortat/Nene vs Hibbert/West - a year ago edge to Indy, right now edge to Wiz

Other starters
Beal/Ariza vs Lance/Hill - edge to Wiz

Bench
Booker/Webster/Miller vs Mahimi/Watson/Copeland - big edge to Wiz


Wizards off better rest, much more confident, playing the better ball and just handily beat a similar team in Chicago.

I like them to take the series at +160 and to take game 1 at +150

 

[wizardofodd]

Wizards vs Pacers

2 best players
Wall vs George - slight edge to Wall

Big men
Gortat/Nene vs Hibbert/West - a year ago edge to Indy, right now edge to Wiz

Other starters
Beal/Ariza vs Lance/Hill - edge to Wiz

Bench
Booker/Webster/Miller vs Mahimi/Watson/Copeland - big edge to Wiz


Wizards off better rest, much more confident, playing the better ball and just handily beat a similar team in Chicago.

I like them to take the series at +160 and to take game 1 at +150

yea, really close to pulling the trigger on them. Game 1 ML, if they lose then I will take the series on Wash

 

[braves]

lets talk about X and O's..

who is covering Durant for the clippers- certainly no one like tony allen, price and even lee - probably matt barnes and he should get 2 quick fouls and a T...

They don't have anyone and I think he will have big games In This series. Okc will also be able to play the pace they want in this series. I see okc winning this one in 6

 

[austinhous]

Thunder 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS at home versus Clips. Thunder are 2-5 SU and ATS in those games when Clips have had at least 1 day of rest and 0-4 SU and ATS when the Clips have had at least 1 day of rest and the Thunder have had less than 2 days of rest.

 

[divol]

I really don't see any reason to waste your money on the Wizards. They should be getting at least 4.00+ odds...

 

[aplous]

Really D? I think they have a decent shot to win this series.

 

[austinhous]

Wizards haven't won a game @IND since Apr 18, 2007. Since then they are 0-12 SU and 3-8-1 ATS. Still trying to find out if the fact they have had 5 days off to the Pacers' 1 day off should be significant or not given how the game is lined.

 

[CASH]

Wizards haven't won a game @IND since Apr 18, 2007. Since then they are 0-12 SU and 3-8-1 ATS. Still trying to find out if the fact they have had 5 days off to the Pacers' 1 day off should be significant or not given how the game is lined.

In an all serious question . How much weight do you put into these stats?

 

[braves]

I really don't see any reason to waste your money on the Wizards. They should be getting at least 4.00+ odds...

Aren't the wiz a better team than the hawks with a better backcourt?

Do you think the pacer's have fixed their issues?

Pacers don't have anyone who can create their own shot, so it's kinda all dependent on their defense.

I think it will be another tough series for the pacers.

 

[divol]

I will write my thoughts on the series later (if I have a chance - it's holiday in Israel), but basically, I just think that it's very wrong to compare Indi with Chicago and Wizards with the Hawks.

 

[austinhous]

In an all serious question . How much weight do you put into these stats?

Everyone has their "thing" and queries are what I lean on pretty heavily. But with so much situational info out there it is hard to put a lot of weight on one single thing. And there are tons of different scenarios. I like to get as many scenarios together as I possibly can and then try to make a lean based on my feel of all the different angles. Some angles are directly related to the situation, and some are more obscure like: Home team in game 1 of round 2 is 9-3 SU but only 3-8-1 ATS and 0-6 ATS L6 coming into the game on only 1 day of rest.

But when there is a more straightforward trend like this one: "Team A at Team B since 2007" then it holds a little more weight. By no means am I saying "go out and bet the Pacers right now because the Wizards haven't won there in the past seven years," because something that happened seven years ago is more arbitrary than the stuff that is happening in 2014. I think it's just something among many things to consider.

I think I see your point though, and I understand it can be frustrating when some dude quotes a random trend. And every time someone else posts a trend I have to go double check it and make sure, that's just how I do. I actually might nut up and post actual plays someday, but tend to do that more in the in-game threads at halftime and whatnot. I'm not trying to tout plays.

 

[divol]

I will write my thoughts on the series later (if I have a chance - it's holiday in Israel), but basically, I just think that it's very wrong to compare Indi with Chicago and Wizards with the Hawks.

Got few minutes so I will write my thoughts.

I think you can't compare Bulls to the Pacers.
They are similar on defense, though Pacers are better, but on offense? Two different teams.
You don't have a player that is a go to guy in Chicago. So in the final minutes, they are in trouble.
They also don't have any player other than Augustine that can create.

In Indiana you got Paul George, Stephenson and even Hill for that matter.

Bulls had very long stretches without the ability to score. Indiana should be much better at it.

As far as the Wizards, Pacers match up them really well.
No more Antic, Caroll, Scott and Millsap that can shoot three pointers. Nene and Gortat have decent mid range shot - that's it and that is something that Hibbert can deal with.

Unlike Teague, that once he went past Hill, he had open look to the basket, now Wall will have to face Hibbert in the paint - much more difficult task.

Pacers did great job on defense against the Wizards in regular season and that won't change I believe.

Took Pacers -4 and Under 183.5 here...

 

[CASH]

Everyone has their "thing" and queries are what I lean on pretty heavily. But with so much situational info out there it is hard to put a lot of weight on one single thing. And there are tons of different scenarios. I like to get as many scenarios together as I possibly can and then try to make a lean based on my feel of all the different angles. Some angles are directly related to the situation, and some are more obscure like: Home team in game 1 of round 2 is 9-3 SU but only 3-8-1 ATS and 0-6 ATS L6 coming into the game on only 1 day of rest.

But when there is a more straightforward trend like this one: "Team A at Team B since 2007" then it holds a little more weight. By no means am I saying "go out and bet the Pacers right now because the Wizards haven't won there in the past seven years," because something that happened seven years ago is more arbitrary than the stuff that is happening in 2014. I think it's just something among many things to consider.

I think I see your point though, and I understand it can be frustrating when some dude quotes a random trend. And every time someone else posts a trend I have to go double check it and make sure, that's just how I do. I actually might nut up and post actual plays someday, but tend to do that more in the in-game threads at halftime and whatnot. I'm not trying to tout plays.

thanks for the response- i don't have a problem with anyone throwing out these kind of stats, for me some of them are kinda just "wow", in this case they havent won a single game there in 7 years is just wow.
I hope people use their own discretion with this info, plus they are good for a snarky response like "wall and Beal weren't even in in middle school when this started"

 

[braves]

Got few minutes so I will write my thoughts.

I think you can't compare Bulls to the Pacers.
They are similar on defense, though Pacers are better, but on offense? Two different teams.
You don't have a player that is a go to guy in Chicago. So in the final minutes, they are in trouble.
They also don't have any player other than Augustine that can create.

In Indiana you got Paul George, Stephenson and even Hill for that matter.

Bulls had very long stretches without the ability to score. Indiana should be much better at it.

As far as the Wizards, Pacers match up them really well.
No more Antic, Caroll, Scott and Millsap that can shoot three pointers. Nene and Gortat have decent mid range shot - that's it and that is something that Hibbert can deal with.

Unlike Teague, that once he went past Hill, he had open look to the basket, now Wall will have to face Hibbert in the paint - much more difficult task.

Pacers did great job on defense against the Wizards in regular season and that won't change I believe.

Took Pacers -4 and Under 183.5 here...

Makes sense, Atlanta was able to stretch them defensively...

Are you counting on hibbert to be effective?

 

[CASH]

i think Hibbert comes to play this series, such a better matchup for him. If wiz going with their usual..

looking forward to see what the coaching has in-store - Wittman has some tape of how to make hibbert in-effective, not sure he has the 5 guys to be on the floor at once to spread it all out.
maybe wall, beal, ariza, webster, harrington - which would be very small.

Also think Stephenson beats the crap out of Beal early and often trying to knock the young kid off his game...

 

[CASH]

Got few minutes so I will write my thoughts.

I think you can't compare Bulls to the Pacers.
They are similar on defense, though Pacers are better, but on offense? Two different teams.
You don't have a player that is a go to guy in Chicago. So in the final minutes, they are in trouble.
They also don't have any player other than Augustine that can create.

In Indiana you got Paul George, Stephenson and even Hill for that matter.

Bulls had very long stretches without the ability to score. Indiana should be much better at it.

As far as the Wizards, Pacers match up them really well.
No more Antic, Caroll, Scott and Millsap that can shoot three pointers. Nene and Gortat have decent mid range shot - that's it and that is something that Hibbert can deal with.

Unlike Teague, that once he went past Hill, he had open look to the basket, now Wall will have to face Hibbert in the paint - much more difficult task.

Pacers did great job on defense against the Wizards in regular season and that won't change I believe.

Took Pacers -4 and Under 183.5 here...

I don't believe this to be true... sure indy was 2-1 vs them this year... one of them giving up 66 points after wiz had just won b2b on the road,, so to me it was more situational, i also believe Nene and beal were out for 1 of those games that they lost...

 

[emkee]

The commish put together the complete 'homer crew' in Game 7 of the Hawks v Pacers to advance the 1-seed. Period.

Hard to believe the Pacers have fixed all that is wrong, think it's a case of putting wallpaper over the cracks in the wall rather than repairing them.

 

[Grovehard]

lets talk about X and O's..

who is covering Durant for the clippers- certainly no one like tony allen, price and even lee - probably matt barnes and he should get 2 quick fouls and a T...

I wonder the same about Westbrook. CP3 is a gamer, but I don't see him keeping up with Westbrook given his health and the nature of the Warriors series. Having said that there are times Westbrook guards himself. For me, it's a bet on how frequently the hamster on the wheel controlling Westbrook's brain takes a break.

 

[nbafan88]

Joe Johnson says Nets match up "great" against 2-time defending champion Heat in 2nd-round series (ESPN) http://ift.tt/ZGB7f5

 

[nbafan88]

Okc is gonna have a lot easier time against the clippers than they did vs Memphis. That's for damn sure. I honestly don't like the clippers very much.

 

[nbafan88]

the pacers do not know how to operate offensively.... their point guard play is no where near the wiz... indy is going to go as far as their defense takes them imo

the wiz as an organization has not had much success and might get pasted tonight because of the bit of a layoff but i learned that the team is much better than what the general feeling was about them...


hibbert will have to be effective because Nene/Gortat will be a handful...

i think the wiz are a much more complete team than indy, period

 

[nbafan88]

• Washington won all three games in Chicago in its first-round series victory but has dropped 12 in a row in Indianapolis, a streak that dates back to the 2006-07 season. Given the Pacers had to go seven games to beat Atlanta after losing two of their first three home games to the eighth seed, that makes tonight’s opener “the biggest game of the series,” in the words of David West. Indiana coach Frank Vogel concurred. “We worked all season so we could get homecourt advantage, not so we can have to go on the road and win two road games,” Vogel said. “We want to win all our home games and it starts tonight.”

• The Wizards tied for the best road record in the East (22-19) during the regular season, so this is nothing new for the fifth seed. “I thought our guys in the Chicago series didn’t flinch,” said Wizards coach Randy Wittman. “They have great confidence in what it takes to win on the road and it’s no different coming in here tonight. Our guys look forward to it and it’s going to be tough, as all games are in the playoffs. The further you go, the tougher it gets. That’s what we have to understand heading into this first game.”

• In two losses here during the regular season, the Wizards averaged 69.5 points and shot 36 percent from the field. John Wall and Bradley Beal combined to shoot 14-for-47. Indiana’s Paul George averaged 16.7 points on 33 percent shooting against the Wizards.

• Against the Hawks, George had six double-doubles in seven games and set individual franchise records in a seven-game series with 75 rebounds, 68 defensive rebounds, 17 steals and 284 minutes played. Indiana set franchise marks in a seven-game series in the following categories: field goal attempts (536), 3-point field goals (54), 3-point attempts (149), fewest offensive rebounds (66), most defensive rebounds (249), most total rebounds (315) and defensive field goal percentage (.385).

• After using George to defend Hawks point guard Jeff Teague in the first round, Vogel plans to stick with George Hill against Wall, at least to begin the series. “I think it’s something we can go to,” Vogel said, “but I don’t think it’s something that we’ll see a heavy volume of, at least early in the series.”

• Veterans Luis Scola and Evan Turner did not play in the final two games against the Hawks but will return to the rotation against the Wizards, who allow the Pacers to employ more traditional defensive principles and matchups.

• Wittman said the Wizards’ points of emphasis against the Pacers would be very similar to the Chicago series. “It’s a physical team, big team, good defensive team, one that wants to play a pace to their liking. Those are the things we have to understand tonight,” he said. “It’s going to be a physical series. We’ve got to know that and be up for that right from the start. We’ve got to play our pace. We’ve got to create a situation where we’re playing to our pace and not theirs but to do that you’ve got to get started off defensively. It’s very similar to what we talked about going into the Chicago series.”

• Where the Pacers closed out the Hawks Saturday night, the Wizards have had nearly a week off since finishing off the Bulls in five games last Tuesday. Vogel said Washington’s edge is probably more in the extra time to prepare. “Our guys have been playing every other day for really the whole season so I don’t think it’s something where fatigue should be an issue for us,” he said. “In terms of preparation, maybe they’ve been looking at us a little deeper. These things can go either way.”

• The Pacers will start Hill, Lance Stephenson, George, David West and Roy Hibbert. Andrew Bynum and Solomon Hill are inactive.

• Washington counters with Wall, Beal, Trevor Ariza, Nene and Marcin Gortat. Glen Rice and Chris Singleton are inactive.

 

[Schrute]

I wonder the same about Westbrook. CP3 is a gamer, but I don't see him keeping up with Westbrook given his health and the nature of the Warriors series. Having said that there are times Westbrook guards himself. For me, it's a bet on how frequently the hamster on the wheel controlling Westbrook's brain takes a break.

hahahaha that's a great line

 

[BJPLAYER]

Everyone has their "thing" and queries are what I lean on pretty heavily. But with so much situational info out there it is hard to put a lot of weight on one single thing. And there are tons of different scenarios. I like to get as many scenarios together as I possibly can and then try to make a lean based on my feel of all the different angles. Some angles are directly related to the situation, and some are more obscure like: Home team in game 1 of round 2 is 9-3 SU but only 3-8-1 ATS and 0-6 ATS L6 coming into the game on only 1 day of rest.

But when there is a more straightforward trend like this one: "Team A at Team B since 2007" then it holds a little more weight. By no means am I saying "go out and bet the Pacers right now because the Wizards haven't won there in the past seven years," because something that happened seven years ago is more arbitrary than the stuff that is happening in 2014. I think it's just something among many things to consider.

I think I see your point though, and I understand it can be frustrating when some dude quotes a random trend. And every time someone else posts a trend I have to go double check it and make sure, that's just how I do. I actually might nut up and post actual plays someday, but tend to do that more in the in-game threads at halftime and whatnot. I'm not trying to tout plays.

love your stuff

 

[BJPLAYER]

The commish put together the complete 'homer crew' in Game 7 of the Hawks v Pacers to advance the 1-seed. Period.

Hard to believe the Pacers have fixed all that is wrong, think it's a case of putting wallpaper over the cracks in the wall rather than repairing them.

totally agree....hard to just decide today they are going to be a better team than they have been for 2 1/2 months

 

[BJPLAYER]

Joe Johnson says Nets match up "great" against 2-time defending champion Heat in 2nd-round series (ESPN) http://ift.tt/ZGB7f5

they do but there is that talent and age differential to consider....would lov to see the nets take them down but.......

 

[emkee]

I like the Clips ATS. I think both teams going 7 games and coming in on short rest favors the team getting points. Especially after what the Clips have done as the road dog this year.

:shake:

 

[Retburj13]

 

[divol]

Posted today's lines in the first post.

Amazingly bad game by the Pacers.
They allowed 17 boards under their own rims to the Wizards, when they took only 30 rebounds on defense themselves.
That means that more than 1/3 of Wizards missed shots, they got second chance.
You can't win when you can't control your own board.
Pacers took only 6 rebounds under Wizards board (Wizards took 36 defensive rebounds - so only 1/7 of Pacers missed shots they got a second chance to correct).

Still believe in the Pacers, but they got zero chance in the series, if they continue to lose the boards like that...

 

[divol]

Makes sense, Atlanta was able to stretch them defensively...

Are you counting on hibbert to be effective?

Yeah, I was actually counting on Hibbert to be the difference maker in this series.

On second thought... he is... just not on the side I was hoping for...

I still believe in him. Either something goes on with him - seriously fucked up shit in personal life or I don't know what...

This is his series. He should set the tone on defense, especially as far as controlling the boards (at least his own board).

 

[Lexington 125]

Portland had scored 122,112,116,123,98,98 in the series vs rox, 2-1 otr and rested

Spurs team totals were 119,111,109,93,108,92,90.

Spurs avg 105 ppg, Blazers avg 106 ppg for the season.

I don't put as much stock in this, but reg season meetings between these two totaled 220, 209, 220 and 193 (Blazers shot 38% there &19% from 3).


Now the line comes out 205.5? Blazers/Spurs line begging for over loot imo, I think there may be a much bigger emphasis on defense this series, I don't think Pop will want to run with the Blazers....

 

[nbafan88]

I think the nets get blown out today. I wish that they would just take it easy on pierce and KG tonight and take the loss. But that's not gonna happen.

 

[nbafan88]

Mark Jackson is about to be fired

 

[wizardofodd]

couldnt decide

heat/spurs/tigers ML parlay