gabe's MLB TRACKING/SELECTION thread 6-29 to 8-16 (Doing this for 7 weeks)

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Gyno

Guest
Been on quite the tear lately in baseball and this is usually the time I go on a run. Mid/late June to early to mid August. Hopefully not jinxing myself by doing this but since 2006 I have never had a bad July. I've had some terrible Aprils, May Junes and Septembers but this 8-9 week stretch has been good to me throughout the years and there are a lot of people who have witnessed this.


I am doing this thread for my own purposes , I want to look back at this thread and see how I bet during this time. Also my bet size increases during this time so posting all plays will keep me disciplined and on track.

Nonetheless I will post all plays from 6/29 to 8/16 in this thread. Hopefully it will be successful. I will still continue to post plays @ twitter as well. GL to everyone reading this.
 
So far this season: 102-90 +5.92 units (avg wager size 0.57 units)

6/29

Blue Jays -118 for 0.9 units
Cle/TB under 7 +110 for 0.6 units
OAK -0.5 FF -120 for 0.5 units.
 
quick thoughts:

[TABLE="class: tablehead"]
<tbody>[TR="class: stathead"]
[TD="colspan: 13"]Toronto Blue Jays Career statistics vs. Clay Buchholz[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: colhead"]
[TD]BATTER[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]AB[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]H[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2B[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3B[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]HR[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]RBI[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]BB[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]SO[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]AVG[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]OBP[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]SLG[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]OPS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-5890"]
[TD]Jose Bautista[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]55[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].255[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].328[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].364[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].692[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-29008"]
[TD]Ezequiel Carrera[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-32678"]
[TD]Chris Colabello[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].444[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].444[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].444[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].889[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-29563"]
[TD]Josh Donaldson[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].200[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].273[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].300[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].573[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-5904"]
[TD]Edwin Encarnacion[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]35[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].200[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].349[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].371[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].720[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-30636"]
[TD]Ryan Goins[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].474[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].474[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].632[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-6087"]
[TD]Maicer Izturis[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]23[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].391[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].481[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].522[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.003[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-32047"]
[TD]Munenori Kawasaki[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].200[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].250[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].200[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].450[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-6390"]
[TD]Russell Martin[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].316[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].316[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].947[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.263[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-5902"]
[TD]Dioner Navarro[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].294[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].333[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].353[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].686[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-32859"]
[TD]Kevin Pillar[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].333[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].400[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].333[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].733[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-5411"]
[TD]Jose Reyes[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]29[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].276[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].364[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].345[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].708[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-29505"]
[TD]Michael Saunders[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].250[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].400[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].250[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].650[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-30175"]
[TD]Justin Smoak[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].167[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].167[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].167[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].333[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-30188"]
[TD]Josh Thole[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].625[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].833[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.458[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-32938"]
[TD]Devon Travis[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].600[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].750[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.350[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-29439"]
[TD]Danny Valencia[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].125[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].222[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].125[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].347[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow bi"]
[TD]Totals[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]274[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]78[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]41[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]31[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]55[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].285[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].356[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].420[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].776[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



Dickey decent success vs RED SOX. Blue Jays rake @ home.

Better lineup, home field and better pitcher situation. I will gladly pay 18 cents.


Anderson shined in debut and new pitchers have an edge when they come into league. Karns has been a stud last few starts. Neither lineup intimdating and getting 10 cents. Will take it.


Hale always gives up at least 3 runs after 5 innings. A's at home, last AB and Graveman has been good. I will pay 20 cents and think A's have lead after 5.
 
Adding:

REDS TT ov 4 -115 for 0.5 units.

Pelfrey on road .311 OPP BA, 1.53 WHIP. 4.46 ERA

Reds hitting .281 last 7 games and I kinda like the lineup today, 6-8 hitters hot. I think the Reds at the very least should score 4 so feel this is a push or win type of wager.

GL
 
For Tuesday 6/30 getting on this early.


SEA/SD under 7 -115 for 0.6 units.
 
Look at these cold teams..

Last 7 games:

Mets batting .189, .571 OPS

Marlins 9 runs last 6 games . .241 OBP -529 OPS

Braves 10 runs last 6 games

Cubs 11 runs last 6 games
 
BTW Heritage rapes you on -1 lines.....


For example:

Oakland A's currently offering -207 and +110

Their -1 line is -161

If you make your own -1 line it's -146.

100 risk

[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]To Win Amount[/TD]
[TD]Wager Number[/TD]
[TD]Odds[/TD]
[TD]Amount To Risk[/TD]
[TD]Amount To Win[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cms_table_nAmount"]100[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_nOdd1"]-207[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_nTopRisk1"]98.57[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_nTopWin1"]47.62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_nOdd2"]110[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_nTopRisk2"]47.62[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_nTopWin2"]52.38[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]





Same exact thing but odds are -146 instead of -161.
 
OAK -1 (-146) for 0.5 units.


Feeling a 2-1 type of day. I think that is it.
 
Just 2 wagers today:


Angels -116 for 0.7 units
SEA/SD under 7 -115 for 0.6 units
 
Mike Montgomery,

Is this kid a future star? Are we watching someone blossom into an ace?
 
IN THREAD: 4-2 +0.64 units thread

SEASON: 106-92 +6.56 units

0.7* MIL/PHI over 4 -115 FF
Garza has been a gas can, Billingsley fresh off injury and only a few starts since 2013 so still rusty. Hitters park, weather obliges. Love this wager.

0.3* BREWERS TT ov 4
guaranteed 9 innings, Phillies BP can lit and I think Brewers lineup good enough to get this. Should get at least 3 vs Bills
 
won the FF in the 2nd and the TT in the 3rd. :)

IN THREAD: 6-2 +1.64 units

SEASON: 108-92 +7.56 units
 
Gabe said:
Thanks coge! Happy about d.green?
Click to expand...
Fuck yeah. Him and Curry can pick and roll with the best of them. And he's the hustle guy every team needs. Hustle, defense, does all the dirty work. Not to mention gets on the other team's nerves and that can get some people out of their game.

You're one of the better cappers I know when it comes to MLB. GL the rest of the baseball season.
 
108-92 +7.56 units
Dodgers ff - 0.5 -140 for 0.4
Mets tt under 2.5 -130 for 0.4
Dodgers RL +110 for 0.25 units

Dodgers ML -213 [3 way line] parlay to one open spot. For 0.3 risk

Kershaw going to put on a show tonight. I predict 8ip 1er 5h 1bb 10ks
 
1-3 -0.71 units.

7-5 +0.93 units thread

109-93 +6.85 units season.

Too bad turner couldn't score.
Was out all day, will come back tomorrow.
 
Hale is the worst pitcher in baseball. Likely to be sent back to minors or Bp very soon.*

Don't think az getting 5 runs is too much of a stretch.*

Corbin first start since 2013. Might be a little rusty. So 6 runs after 5 is not far fetched either .

Az tt over 4.5*
Col az ff ov 5*

All selections posted on twitter @gthenv*


Happy 4th everyone.
 
109-95 +6.85 units
Az tt ov 4.5 -120 for 0.5
Col az ff ov 5 for 0.4
Seattle -126 for 0.7
Happy 4th.
 
For some reason twitter wasn't working for me.
Had no idea those tweets ever went through.
 
Posted a play yesterday and forgot to post it here, this is the main reason I don't like posting plays because I forget to post them sometimes and the record keeping gets harder that way, that was one of the reasons I decided to only do this for 7 weeks.

I had Dodgers under 7 -105 for 0.5 units, this was posted on my twitter. I will add this to the record and by the way it lost, if it would of won I would add it too.


This thread: 9-7 +0.42 units
SEASON: 111-97 +6.34 units


Astros +0.5 FF -135 for 0.7 units
Really feel Kuechel will out pitch Carrasco here and love the fact that it can be tied and still win. Hate giving this juice but feel it has to be played.

Pirates -1 +115 for 0.6 units
Shields has been bad lately, Burnett has been solid. Pirates are a very good team. Price feels right.
 
I apologize for the poor line in the Pirates game. Don't understand the line movement, if anyone knows what is up let me know.
 
Parlay:

Risking 1 unit:

Dodgers -280 with 2 open spots that will be ending with Dodgers next two nights.
OPEN SPOT
OPEN SPOT


Hope this makes sense.
 
Gabe said:
Parlay:

Risking 1 unit:

Dodgers -280 with 2 open spots that will be ending with Dodgers next two nights.
OPEN SPOT
OPEN SPOT


Hope this makes sense.
Click to expand...

Why not just risk 1 unit tonight, then roll the winnings + the original 1 unit into the next 2 nights? I think the payout will be slightly better than the parlay. I have played around with this on "Leverage Plays" or "If Win" bets in the past. Since these are not overlapping games, you don't have to do anything special

I think you're doing this because it will be a better payout than a straight series bet or a prop bet for them to sweep. But I think my idea will squeeze out a few additional dollars
 
This thread: 10-9 -0.38 units
SEASON: 112-99 +5.54 units


Brewers -1 +106 for 0.8 units

Zona TT ov 4 -125 for 0.7 units

Tor/CWS ov 8.5 for 0.6 units

TB -0.5 FF +100 for 0.5 units


Sorry for the Dodgers yesterday.
 
Engineer said:
Why not just risk 1 unit tonight, then roll the winnings + the original 1 unit into the next 2 nights? I think the payout will be slightly better than the parlay. I have played around with this on "Leverage Plays" or "If Win" bets in the past. Since these are not overlapping games, you don't have to do anything special

I think you're doing this because it will be a better payout than a straight series bet or a prop bet for them to sweep. But I think my idea will squeeze out a few additional dollars
Click to expand...


You're probably right, I was just doing this to make it easier.
 
114-100 +6.06 units*

Stl/pitt under 7 -105 for 0.8
Laa/sea under 6.5 +105 for 0.6
Laa/sea under 7 -130 for 0.2

Will add a big one tomorrow.
 
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