***G-Man's NFL Playoffs -Wild Card Weekend***

G-Man

Pretty much a regular
Saturday 4PM
Rams -9.5 (-133) over Panthers 5 units

3rd best defense in the NFC should handle the low wcoring Panthers - combined with the Rams #1 scoring offesne at 30pts/gm.
Panthers averaged only 19pts game.
Add to the fact then when playing winners they only scored 10pts vs jacksonville, 13 vs New England, 16 on GB, 9 vs SF.
Lets not ignore the super game they had with the Rams where they upset LA 31-28 as a 10pt dog, in which they are again this week.

But lets note that the Rams had 3 turnovers -one a pick6- and outgained the Panthers in the loss.
What I am,concerned with - is how shiity McVey coached in games with leads.
Last four games he went "prevent" and theyve allowed 37,37, 24, and 20pts . It prevented 2 SU wins.
He blows two games with huge leads and lost on the last drive. One to shit Arizona and the other to Seattle.
He is a "coaster" coach and hardly shuts down the opponent lately, even bad ones.
Bryce Young will have a hard time getting the ball with the top scoring offense and long drives for for the Rams.
Carolina is the only team in the NFC playoffs that is a negative scoring team (-4). That shoud continue in this game.

8PM
Packers +1.5 over Chicago. 5 units Prime Network

Why they played to win last week was a surprise. They ended up burning out the team for a game they should have rested.
Bears have the 2nd lowest win margin on average of 2pts and game and the 22nd worst defense overall. Not a good combination when faving Jordan Love this week. No doubt that Love will be healthy and the Packers defense which is ranked 11th, will have a chance to win this.
Even though the Packers scoring pts is only 2 pts average like the Bears. But lets not forget that when Love was out, those numbers were affected.
When Love played back on Dec7th, GB won 28-21 as a 6.5 favorite. (Getting 1 here in Chi-Town is a gift).
He did not play much in the next game as he went out with an injury early - when Chi won. GB ws up 6-0 at that point.

Sunday.
1PM
Buffalo ML-122 over Jacksonville. 10 units

One reason only.
Bills have the number one passing defense in the NFL. Many dont know that. The Jags can't live by the run alone. In big games like this Turnovers are huge. When forced to pass it could be hard to the Jags to stay in it.
Buffalo also has the number 2 rushing offense. Jags have the number ONE rushing defense. So if it comes sdown to quarterbacks, Allen win this.

4:30
Philly -4.5 over San Fran. 5 units

Niners showed what happens to them against defenses thata are good. Seahawks embarresed them.
Now in Philly they face a team that has actually imporved late in the season.
Last week vs Seattle, Purdy did nothing and NcCaffery did less.Niners only had NINE(9) first downs. EAGLES play all four qtrs regaedless of the score.
Eagles are on the mark playing solid defense. They beat Buffalo in Buffalo, Did not play starterss last week vs Wash. Had one bad game vs Chargers in LA but had five(5) turnovers in a 22-19 loss.
SF is facing #3 defense in the NFL allowing 19pts/gm


8PM
PATROITS -3 (-130). over Chargers. 8 units

They say that New England played a very soft schedule. They did. The Jets and the Dolphins wrern't competitive teams Bills had them twice also.
But more important is the fact that the Chargers played no winning teams on the road except Jags and Denver in the last game.!
First game of the season was neutral site with KC. Doesnt count.
In road games they played Raiders, Giants, Miami, Tennessee, Got crushed in jacksonville 35-6, barely beat injured KC and beat Dallas.
In the rankings - the Chagers do well but no betterthan the Pats.
Road games are the downfall for the Charger swhen playing winners. It could be close but NE can handle the Harbaughs. They also beat Baltimore in baltimore back on Dec 21st. 28-24.


Monday Nighter Jan 12th
Houstion ML -170 over Pittsburgh. 10 units.

Bet this game like an MLB game. all you have to do is win.

Weather in Putt likely to be above freezing according to upcoming outlook. Also we have a Cold weather QB from Ohio State in C.J. Stroud who already broke John Elways win record in his first three years in the NFL/
Hes on a 9 game win streak and the Steelers played their Big game on Sunday night vs Ravens. Both Pitt and Baltimore lacked defense all year thats why the Steelers finished 10-7.

Pitt only ourscored all opponets by a measly 10 total points in 17 games. Amazing stat considering they played 4 games against bad Cincy and worse Cleveland.

Forget the strealk on Monday Nights with the Steelers. They didnt get to pick the opponent this week -and which game they wanted to use this time, like duiring the regular seaaon.

Houston is the best defense in the NFL and is a plus +6 scroing team.
Houston allowed the 2nd lowest points combimed in all road games this year. Only 15pts/gm . Only Seattle scored over 20.
Seattle was no#1 with only 14.1.!!!
Wouldn't surprise me if those two teams made the SB with those defenses.

Feedback welcome. BOL to all.
 
Last edited:
Do you see anyone stopping the Rams in the NFC?

No Adams for this recent slide.

As a 9er fan, I don’t want to bet against them with a future if they have to play second round. But as soon as Philly knocks off SF - I don’t see Philly or Seattle slowing down the Rams. Both spots the Rams have lost barely on final possessions last FEW times but now they’re healthy and a much better overall roster.
 
Do you see anyone stopping the Rams in the NFC?

No Adams for this recent slide.

As a 9er fan, I don’t want to bet against them with a future if they have to play second round. But as soon as Philly knocks off SF - I don’t see Philly or Seattle slowing down the Rams. Both spots the Rams have lost barely on final possessions last FEW times but now they’re healthy and a much better overall roster.
Thanks for the feedback.

McVey is the problem. he blows leads with his prevent defense. He lost 2 of the last 4 games doing his defensive shit.
Rams cant win it all unless he stops using the prevent. I think Houston and Seattle are the likley SB contenders. They have the best defenses in both leagues.

Cant see Rams beating Seattle since what McVey did last 4 games they played. He cost them home Field advantage!

Lets not forget...Even though Seattle won - they did it also having 3 turnovers. Rams should have never lost that game.
Next time, the game will likley be clean and Hawks can dominate with the better defense. ..As far as SF, I think they are just hurting with injuries and beating Philly in Philly is nearly impossible.
BOL.
 
Thanks for the feedback.

McVey is the problem. he blows leads with his prevent defense. He lost 2 of the last 4 games doing his defensive shit.
Rams cant win it all unless he stops using the prevent. I think Houston and Seattle are the likley SB contenders. They have the best defenses in both leagues.

Cant see Rams beating Seattle since what McVey did last 4 games they played. He cost them home Field advantage!

Lets not forget...Even though Seattle won - they did it also having 3 turnovers. Rams should have never lost that game.
Next time, the game will likley be clean and Hawks can dominate with the better defense. ..As far as SF, I think they are just hurting with injuries and beating Philly in Philly is nearly impossible.
BOL.

I have a Seattle sb future so I hate arguing this side but I don’t think the turnovers an anomaly. It was a turnover fest both times Seattle played rams this year. It is true despite 4-5 turnovers the 1st meeting Seattle had a long fg try at end, despite the turnovers 2nd time around they got the luckiest 2 point conversion in the history of man. I agree if they play clean they win but given the last 3x I’ve seen darnold vs the rams d that doesn’t seem all that likely! I’m really hoping bears or philly lose this weekend (preferably bears since im on Philly-3) so Seattle doesn’t have to see rams til the championship gm and I can start thinking bout locking up some profit.
 
Here are some partial capping factors that may come in handy.

What really matters in the playoffs? Only games with other playoof teams. NOT the entire regular season.
Most important is the defenseive pts allowed...

Rams Played. Hou 14-9., Phi 26-33., SF 23-26., jags 35-7., SF 42-26, SEA 21-19., Caro 28-31., SEA 37-38.
O. 226. =28.25 D. 188.=23.5
Rams Plus +4.75.

Carolina. Jags 10-26., NE 13-42., BUFF 9-40., GB 16-13., SF 9-20., Rams 31-28., Sea 10-27.
O. 98 -14.0 D. 196. =28.0
Caro Minus -14.0

Rams by 18.


Buffalo played , NE 20-23, Caro 40-9, Hou 19-23, PIT 26-7, NE 35-31, Philly 12-13.
Bills pts/gm O 27.5. D 20.8
Bills Plus +6.25

Jags played Caro 26-10, Hou 17-10, SF 26-21, SEA 12-20, Rams 7-35, HOU 29-36, CHRGERS, 35-6, DEN 34-20.
Jags pts/gm O 23.5. D 19.75
Plus +4.25

Bills by 2.



SFran SEA 13-17, Jags 21-26, Rams 26-23, Hoy 15-26, Rams 26-42, Caro 20-9, CHI 42-38, SEA 3-13.
SF O. 166. =20.75... D. 194 =24.25.
SF Minus -3.50

PHI. Rams. 33-26, DEN 17-21, GB 10-7.., DET 16-9., CHI 15-24, CHARGRS 19-22.,
BUFF 13-12.
O. 123.=17.50. D. 121. 17.28.
Phi +0.25
Phi by 4.


Chargers. DEN 23-20. PITT 25-10., Jags 6-35., PHI 22-19., HOU 16-20, Den 13-3.
O. 105. =17.50 D. -107. 17.80.
Minus -1.

NEW Eng. Pit 14-21., Caro 42-13., Buf 23-20., BUF 31-35.,
O. 110 =27.50. D. 89.=22.25
Plus. +5.25

Pats by 6




Green Bay. Played. Pitt 35-25., Caro 13-16., Phi 7-10., CHI 28-21., DEn 26-37., CHI 16-22,
O. 125. 20.8. D 131. -21.8
GB minus - 1


Chicago Played. Pitt 31-28., PHI 24-15., GB 21-28., SF 38-42. GB 22.16.
O. 136. 27.20 D. 129. 25.80
Chi Plus 1.40.

Chi by 2. ?
GB played one more team. Denver. EDGE GB.



Houston Played. Rams .9-14. Jags 10-17., SEA 19-27., SF 26-15., Den 15-18., jags 36-29., Buff. 23-19., Chargers. 20-16.
O. 158 =19.75 D. 155.=19.20
Plus 0.50

Pitt Played. SEA 17-31., NE 21-14., GB 25-35., Chargers 10-25., CHI 28-31., Buff 7-26.,
Pitt O. 108.=18.0 D. 162.-27.0
Pitt Minus, -9.0


Houston by 10


The worst scoring teams are the Chargers and Panthers.
 
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