*****G-Man's -GOY- Super Bowl Winner - Chiefs/Niners*****

[G-Man]

Season. Year to date: 119-79. (60%) . $+9,660.00

San Francisco vs Kansas City
Lots to consider.
Common opponents with playoff teams are main factors.
What happened in those games. How did they win or lose?
What were the tougher opponents up until this game?
Who was battle-tested the most all season.?

Lets compare a few,
Lions+4 beat KC in week-one in KC 21-20.
KC led 14-7 at the half.
Lions scored on a 50 yd int return to tie it up in the 3rd.
KC had 2 FG's the rest of the game. Lions scored a TD with 7 min remaining to win.
Chiefs never got close enough to win it with a fg.

SF -7 beat Detroit - but was getting run over with the Lions run game.
A second half defensive adjustment shutout Detroit in the 2nd half except for a back door TD with seconds on the clock.
Summary: Chiefs were underachieving in week one and continued to score less than the season earlier, as the year went on.

SF loses toBaltimore 33-19 in week. 14. Niners had 5 int's to lose badly, More important fact was the Niners had way more yardage in the loss. SF out gained Ravens by 110 yds. Calculate that into the performance and remove the 5 turnovers and SF wins easily.

Chiefs beat Balt in Balt in a tight game 17-10. Both scores were the lowest of both teams in a playoff game. (The Week before, Ravens rolled up 34 vs Houston. But Ravens were held to only 10 points in the first half). An indicator that a better defense could possibly beat Baltimore - which KC did.

KC lost to Green Bay 19-27.
SF beat GB 24-21.

How did they get here...
Chiefs played 3 teams with winning records at the time they played during the season before the playoffs started. They got here on a fairly weak schedule.
Those teams were Miami (6-2) Jacksonville(1-0) and Philly (8-1). None of the other teams had winning records during the regular season when KC played them.

SF played 6 teams with winning records. Rams (1-0), Dallas (3-1), Jacksonville (6-2) Seattle (6-4), Philly (10-1) Balt (11-3).

Who was battle-tested the most?
Niners were 5-1 su against those teams.
Chiefs were 2-1 SU against the teams they played.
Note: SF beat Philly 42-19.
While KC lost 17-21while being shut out in the second half - with a 17-7 halftime lead.

KC lacks a good running game.
Niners have McCaffrey, who could be MVP?
Both teams have great Tight Ends but Kelce is just better.
Niners run defense (3.8yds/Run) is better than KC(4.5).

Niners are superior on offense with #3 run game and #4 passing game while
KC is #17 running and #8 passing.
Based on level of competition - SF is better.

SF is the best defensive team the Chiefs have faced all season. Even better than Baltimore.
Baltmore was held to 110 yards less than what SF gained in the Ravens game when SF had 5 turnovers. Thats the secret ingredient in what decides this game.

The Ravens had 3 turnovers against KC and that big fumble by Flowers at the 1 yard line to change the outcome of that game.

My GOY Play.
SF ML (-130). 25 units. (waiting on Injury updates).
Will confirm bet on next updated injury report. Making sure Samuel, Kittle, McCaffrey and Purdy are all healthy.
May add some half-time bets(1&2) and total before game time.
It was a great season.
Thanks for all the feed back.
Best of luck to all.

 

[C-70 Blues]

Im confused. It is or isnt a GOY pick?

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

Best of luck Brother

Common opponents is a different way to cap a game for sure ...

Game seems like a coin flip imo ..
Tough spot for a GOY ..


Sweep your slate $$

 

[wiseplayer]

Season. Year to date: 119-79. (60%) . $+9,660.00

San Francisco vs Kansas City
Lots to consider.
Common opponents with playoff teams are main factors.
What happened in those games. How did they win or lose?
What were the tougher opponents up until this game?
Who was battle-tested the most all season.?

Lets compare a few,
Lions+4 beat KC in week-one in KC 21-20.
KC led 14-7 at the half.
Lions scored on a 50 yd int return to tie it up in the 3rd.
KC had 2 FG's the rest of the game. Lions scored a TD with 7 min remaining to win.
Chiefs never got close enough to win it with a fg.

SF -7 beat Detroit - but was getting run over with the Lions run game.
A second half defensive adjustment shutout Detroit in the 2nd half except for a back door TD with seconds on the clock.
Summary: Chiefs were underachieving in week one and continued to score less than the season earlier, as the year went on.

SF loses toBaltimore 33-19 in week. 14. Niners had 5 int's to lose badly, More important fact was the Niners had way more yardage in the loss. SF out gained Ravens by 110 yds. Calculate that into the performance and remove the 5 turnovers and SF wins easily.

Chiefs beat Balt in Balt in a tight game 17-10. Both scores were the lowest of both teams in a playoff game. (The Week before, Ravens rolled up 34 vs Houston. But Ravens were held to only 10 points in the first half). An indicator that a better defense could possibly beat Baltimore - which KC did.

KC lost to Green Bay 19-27.
SF beat GB 24-21.

How did they get here...
Chiefs played 3 teams with winning records at the time they played during the season before the playoffs started. They got here on a fairly weak schedule.
Those teams were Miami (6-2) Jacksonville(1-0) and Philly (8-1). None of the other teams had winning records during the regular season when KC played them.

SF played 6 teams with winning records. Rams (1-0), Dallas (3-1), Jacksonville (6-2) Seattle (6-4), Philly (10-1) Balt (11-3).

Who was battle-tested the most?
Niners were 5-1 su against those teams.
Chiefs were 2-1 SU against the teams they played.
Note: SF beat Philly 42-19.
While KC lost 17-21while being shut out in the second half - with a 17-7 halftime lead.

KC lacks a good running game.
Niners have McCaffrey, who could be MVP?
Both teams have great Tight Ends but Kelce is just better.
Niners run defense (3.8yds/Run) is better than KC(4.5).

Niners are superior on offense with #3 run game and #4 passing game while
KC is #17 running and #8 passing.
Based on level of competition - SF is better.

SF is the best defensive team the Chiefs have faced all season. Even better than Baltimore.
Baltmore was held to 110 yards less than what SF gained in the Ravens game when SF had 5 turnovers. Thats the secret ingredient in what decides this game.

The Ravens had 3 turnovers against KC and that big fumble by Flowers at the 1 yard line to change the outcome of that game.

My GOY Play.
SF ML (-130). 25 units. (waiting on Injury updates).
Will confirm bet on next updated injury report. Making sure Samuel, Kittle, McCaffrey and Purdy are all healthy.
May add some half-time bets(1&2) and total before game time.
It was a great season.
Thanks for all the feed back.
Best of luck to all.

I see blankets is showing the 9ers run D gives up 4.3 a carry.

 

[Gandolf]

Interesting choice to leave the Bengals entirely out of the analysis. They were 8-7 when KC beat them. KC also scored 25 on them in the win while the Niners only scored 17 in a loss, both with home games.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

The 49ers run D ranks toward the bottom in the metrics. Their surface-level numbers look so attractive because they’ve played in so many blowouts where the opponent had to abandon the run. We just saw what in close games Aaron Jones and the Lions did to them

 

[Inspekdah]

The 49ers run D ranks toward the bottom in the metrics. Their surface-level numbers look so attractive because they’ve played in so many blowouts where the opponent had to abandon the run. We just saw what in close games Aaron Jones and the Lions did to them

Pacheco and that offensive line are not Aaron Jones or the Lions oline and those 2 studs in the running game.

I think Armstead’s presence is finally apparent vs a middle of the road rushing attack.

 

[Inspekdah]

Also 9ers had a middle SOS but they did play and beat every NFC playoff team. 6-0 (throwing out last week).

 

[G-Man]

Im confused. It is or isnt a GOY pick?

Why are you confused? The Tiltle and the writeup both say GOY.

 

[G-Man]

The 49ers run D ranks toward the bottom in the metrics. Their surface-level numbers look so attractive because they’ve played in so many blowouts where the opponent had to abandon the run. We just saw what in close games Aaron Jones and the Lions did to them

The blowouts are because opponent couldn't run and abandoned it ...Six playoff teams during the season and a run defense of 3.8 yds per carry gives them the most tested and legitimate numbers.

 

[G-Man]

Interesting choice to leave the Bengals entirely out of the analysis. They were 8-7 when KC beat them. KC also scored 25 on them in the win while the Niners only scored 17 in a loss, both with home games.

Ya think KC would have beat them with Burrow?
Games with backup QB's were not counted.. The other 3 teams had starting QB's playing.

Things like a QB being out misleads the capacity of a team win.
Same with Browns and Bengals vs SF. Those weren't included in the analysis for the Super Bowl predication. SF had key players out.

Those reading should consider that KC is significantly softer than they were a year ago.
This year they scored 23 pts/gm on offense. Last year they were better with a 29pt scoring offense. Thats a huge drop and its why they have not beat some easy teams like they would have a year ago.

To rationalize the KC win over the Ravens was because Baltimore was an over rated team playing several games against backups and 2nd and 3rd string QB's.
Just a year ago the Ravens were a 20pt scoring team while allowing 19 on defense. This years number were falsely inflated because of broken opponents. Thats why it was a low scoring game between KC/Balt. Both teams were underachieving when you considered who they played and when.



SF lost nothing from last year. They scored 27 last year and this year its 29. - and thats including against 6 playoff teams. .

Everyone has their own perception on why a team will win. Mine are not based on who I like. Its based on numbers and common opponents which happen to be the best matchup factors in a SB play.
So many teams are no good during the season...But when we get enough games with good opponents at full speed with starting QB's, -Thats when the edges are showing up..
If either Baltimore or KC were playing SF both would be playing with weak numbers as explained above.

SF's numbers are real and thats why I wrote about them being battle-tested..

BOL To you.
Thanks for the feedback.

 

[Canes1]

Stay strong G Man. Don’t let the haters get you down.

 

[C-70 Blues]

Not trying to be a hater but still confused. Right after the GOY pick you say I'll confirm the bet after the updated injury report. You're saying you have not placed the bet yet?

 

[G-Man]

Not trying to be a hater but still confused. Right after the GOY pick you say I'll confirm the bet after the updated injury report. You're saying you have not placed the bet yet?

Wrote this play on Monday - before I posted on Tuesday - before injuries were reported... Was waiting on injury report for the readers. Meaning, to those who tail to hold off until report was available.

Yes - My bet is placed at -130.
Current updated report shows No injuries to the 4 players mentioned.
Go ahead and make your play . Or wait until game day.
I posted the play early for those interested. People ask questions about the play and there is no sense is waiting until game day.
Good points are made by many who read the play and that gives everyone better insight to other opinions to compare facts.
I dont think youre a hater. It wouldn't matter anyway.

I only use the capping advantages I see that produced my season record - as explained,
Its my GOY because of until size. Same units(25) as last years SB win on KC+2..

BOL on your play.

 

[C-70 Blues]

If the bet is already placed, which you said it is, then what is left to confirm? Also, I did a quick search here for that KC pick from last season but didn't find anything. Maybe you put it in someone elses post??

 

[G-Man]

If the bet is already placed, which you said it is, then what is left to confirm? Also, I did a quick search here for that KC pick from last season but didn't find anything. Maybe you put it in someone elses post??

Jeez! It was referring to confirming the injuries.

The KC win was posted elsewhere. I dont want traffic from here going there.
Youre starting to sound like some "characters" from another site who like to start trouble.

Youve been here for 4 months without many posts.(66)...
Here is the writeup from last year...
>>>>>>

Jan 31, 2023
Opening line PHI +1.
Current line PHI -1.5. (Tuesday Jan 31st)
Cross over in the numbers already.
Will be interesting to see what happens once injury updates are posted.


Update: Feb.
My Plays.
Chiefs +2 (SBK) over Eagles. 25 units
Under 52 (-109) (SBK). 10 Units
Lots of respect for both teams here, but one faced underachievers to get here.
I'm going with KC - and against Philly.

Capping factors statistically favor Eagles on the surface, but they faced a SF team that was over rated IMO and it was revealed in the Dallas game.
Philly also had two opponents that were or became easy pushovers.

Cowboys beat themselves in SF.
Dak. "int" Prescott was the reason Dallas lost. The SF defense gets al the credit for winning that game but not the SF offense.

In the KC/Cincy game, the teams played up to their recent defensive numbers which mean a lot at the end of the year..
They each held the opponent to below season averages on offense.

Last week I ranked KC and Cincy above the 9'ers and the Eagles, based on the last 5 games they played. But - Not on the fantastic "season averages" that put them up in the top rankings.
My thread from last week - Titled -"Who has the better defense right now?"
Here are my rankings from my post last week:
Complied from the last 5 games from each team.
,Points allowed.
Bengals 16.8 (Bengals played 2 of 5 at home.
Chiefs 18.2 (Played 3 of 5 at home.
Eagles. 20.6 (played 3 of 5 at home.
SF. 20.6 (Played 4 of last 5 at home.

The KC game last week was as good as it gets.
Each team could have won.
Knowing they didnt have a big advantage, by one team losing a 'Starting QB" early in th game, gives a solid read on who's coming to the Big Dance on Super Bowl Sunday.

Philly was solid on defense, but not facing a real QB was very revealing about who I think they are now.
I like Hurts a lot, but in that game when the competition (SF) was far better than the Giants - we should have seen a lot better from Philly than what they showed against a team with no QB.
Being at HOME they were somewhat pathetic.
If considering what they did on offense was important, then there is no way to back them now against KC.
The time of possession was all Philly. 37-22 minutes.
offensively Philly underachieved badly.
Passing 121.
Rushing 148. Most rushing yards were with the lead to run the clock.

SF had ONLY 11 first downs.
Passing 83 yds
Rushing 81 yds
No QB = means no yardage. The score was real, but not the offensive performance by Philly to match it.
Thats important now for the SB game.

Facing either KC or Cincy would not matter here. Both teams are good enough to beat Philly.
The Eagles hit a near season LOW on offense for the year, That should NEVER happen when the opponent never has the ball and is playing with zero offense.

Based on the last 5 games before last week, KC has the better defense. Now with the recent performance on the Philly offense, KC has the better offense right now. Philly caught two teams with little to offer.

Im not using the SF game to consider the defensive play by Philly. Without at starting QB for SF, the Defensive numbers are misleading.

The season defensive averages for points allowed are nearly identical for KC and Philly. (21 pts per game) Not something many would notice when seeing that Philly rankings were so high all season. But again, we are considering the last 5 previous games as a relative point for the current teams.

Placing my bet today is mainly because I see that Two of the WR's for KC are now "probable", as to when the line came out they were questionable.
Mahomes should be in better condition with 12 days rest.
The line can only go against me if everyone on KC is 100% for the game and if the masses start going to KC as we get closer to he game.

Lastly - Coaching playoff experience may be important here.
Reid has 37 games. Sirianni 3.

Again I repeat, that Philly was very conservative against SF, but since the QB was out they didn't really do much with all that lopsided T.O.P. with 37 minutes of having the ball.
I think Mahomes and Burrow are both better than Hurts as QB's, but Hurts has the better run capability for this game. Hurts has a 4.6 yds average and 13 rushing Td's.
That could be the only issue for the Chiefs?
My Plays are as posted above.
GL

 

[Timh]

BOL great work on the season!

 

[C-70 Blues]

You mean confirming the injury report that all of us can see on our own? Relax and good luck with your selection even though its wrong.

 

[HUNT]

Good luck g man. Take it to the man

 

[G-Man]

You mean confirming the injury report that all of us can see on our own? Relax and good luck with your selection even though its wrong.

Its wrong? Then why did you ask all the questions and even bother to read it...LOL

Go ahead and tell me what is wrong with it and why?

Tell us why KC will win...

 

[EL CAPO]

you also left out the vikings and eagles common opponents....each favoring the other team, so - the margins are thinner then you think.....and I by in large agree with your handicapping style, common opponents, but feel in nfl, it is necessary due to the parity to adjust for momentum much more then college

You have 0 adjustment or factor for the fact the chiefs are hot ?.......also can look at packers to end the year, or multiple teams yearly that make postseason runs

Record vs playoffs teams - this held true vs buffalo as a negative to kc, and also in comparison to baltimore.

I disagree that the niners are better as a team this year then last year , and disagree with the assertion the niners have a better defense then the ravens........also i disagree at strength of schedule being better for san fran here - it's negligible as everyone knows entire nfl is watered down

As a whole, during the regular season the niners were better, but this is not bama vs georgia type comparison vs other college teams, this is nfl........i try to bleed out all the seahawks and cardinals games on this niners schedule, they are not a super great team and have flaws, defense regressed from last year mightily, and are facing the hottest coach and qb in the league who have made adjustments postseason.

 

[EL CAPO]

Interesting choice to leave the Bengals entirely out of the analysis. They were 8-7 when KC beat them. KC also scored 25 on them in the win while the Niners only scored 17 in a loss, both with home games.

the bengals game was some of the worst defense i've seen all season, ......up there with the lions...........kc has the better defense here according to eye test.

 

[2daBank]

Pacheco and that offensive line are not Aaron Jones or the Lions oline and those 2 studs in the running game.

I think Armstead’s presence is finally apparent vs a middle of the road rushing attack.

i'm not saying i'll be on kc, i dunno i can stomach being against them after the redic amount i lost on ravens, even tho im still convinced if i called plays and lamar was himself instead of trying to be what they wanted him to be ravens win that game easy! of course i'm also convinced if i coached lions they would have won also! (notice i say call plays for ravens cause i respect john harbaugh even tho i dont know how he let todd munchkin talk him into that asinine game plan of 6 rush attempts!! i say coach lions cause i doubt i could call better plays than lions oc but the knee biter might be good in a lot of ways he one the few guys in the league who could possible get more shit in his pants in the big spot/game than shanny who wasn't much better without Campbell's help!!! opposite of ravens shanny retarded ass kept running mccaffery into a excellent run d, shanny might be one the best play designers in the league but his choices in the big games have been horrific most his career!). all that said i think you crazy to say pachecho and kc run blocking is any less than jones and packers. unless Pacheco hurt he every bit the rb jones is, kc line has had pass pro issues but they a pretty nasty run blocking unit! i think it would be very foolish to dismiss kc run game, or the fact despite all shanny is elite at when he on the field across from andy he lacks certain qualities that tend to show up in these big games

 

[Inspekdah]

i'm not saying i'll be on kc, i dunno i can stomach being against them after the redic amount i lost on ravens, even tho im still convinced if i called plays and lamar was himself instead of trying to be what they wanted him to be ravens win that game easy! of course i'm also convinced if i coached lions they would have won also! (notice i say call plays for ravens cause i respect john harbaugh even tho i dont know how he let todd munchkin talk him into that asinine game plan of 6 rush attempts!! i say coach lions cause i doubt i could call better plays than lions oc but the knee biter might be good in a lot of ways he one the few guys in the league who could possible get more shit in his pants in the big spot/game than shanny who wasn't much better without Campbell's help!!! opposite of ravens shanny retarded ass kept running mccaffery into a excellent run d, shanny might be one the best play designers in the league but his choices in the big games have been horrific most his career!). all that said i think you crazy to say pachecho and kc run blocking is any less than jones and packers. unless Pacheco hurt he every bit the rb jones is, kc line has had pass pro issues but they a pretty nasty run blocking unit! i think it would be very foolish to dismiss kc run game, or the fact despite all shanny is elite at when he on the field across from andy he lacks certain qualities that tend to show up in these big games

I just think the rushing attack isn't as dynamic as the teams SF has recently faced. Pachecho a north south guy, and the end around speed that the Lions and physicality the Packers had at WR made guarding the rush very difficult. Chiefs JET is the hardest player to account for in that offense and he's on IR. With that said if Chase Young is out there just run at him and you'll gash the 9ers.

 

[Inspekdah]

Interesting choice to leave the Bengals entirely out of the analysis. They were 8-7 when KC beat them. KC also scored 25 on them in the win while the Niners only scored 17 in a loss, both with home games.

You can't compare those 2 teams. Completely different a surging SB fav Bengals team when they played @ SF (who was missing a few key players) vs. that exhausted and beaten down Bengals team who fell apart after dominating KC early. I was on KC big in that 1, too.

 

[Gandolf]

You can't compare those 2 teams. Completely different a surging SB fav Bengals team when they played @ SF (who was missing a few key players) vs. that exhausted and beaten down Bengals team who fell apart after dominating KC early. I was on KC big in that 1, too.

I thought it was appropriate since the results for Detroit playing a healthy Niners teams and a KC team without Kelce or Chris Jones four months apart were being used.

 

[Inspekdah]

I thought it was appropriate since the results for Detroit playing a healthy Niners teams and a KC team without Kelce or Chris Jones four months apart were being used.

Ah, I see now.

 

[2daBank]

I just think the rushing attack isn't as dynamic as the teams SF has recently faced. Pachecho a north south guy, and the end around speed that the Lions and physicality the Packers had at WR made guarding the rush very difficult. Chiefs JET is the hardest player to account for in that offense and he's on IR. With that said if Chase Young is out there just run at him and you'll gash the 9ers.

in fairness for some reason i think the rain helped packers and jones which silly niners don't know their own field better! you might have me on styles, i love pacheco but you right his style and kc run game might play more into niners d than packs did, i was honestly shocked packers ran on ya'll like they did, red zone saved ya'll that game which now that i think bout might be becoming one of Lafluer (who in general i think pretty good) fatal flaw as it ain't the 1st playoff game that packers sunk themselves not cashing in tds! after the packers game i all a sudden was thrilled to take lions and points which never thought be the case, as you know i like your niners a lot, but after pack game i was sure lions could def run ball and unlike pack lions very good in red zone, lucky for niners campbell has no understanding of math, time and place for everything, or any other dumb shit reason he didn't put his team up 17 w 5 min to go in 3rd! call me crazy but id like to still be up 2 scores of god forbid my opponent catches some luck box bomb off my defenders head!! lol.

anyways moral of the story you have some valid points but i still have to look and think bout cause i still think there a path to pachecho having success also, maybe differently but big andy is so freaking clever he might find a way. this a lot different from
last few SB's, im a long way from deciding to bet either team in this one. im gonna try to keep stacking ncaa prop cash and worry bout it later, maybe there ain't a big play for me in this one? i was baffled ravens couldn't stop kc early (andy so clever), wasn't surprised at all ravens d figured it out once andy had thrown everything but the kitchen sink at them, still scratching my head how ravens had so many bullets in that gun they kept shooting themselves in the foot with! i dont believe for a min kc should be here but mahomes and andy win a lot of games like that and shanny been known to have a bit the opposite going his career!

 

[G-Man]

you also left out the vikings and eagles common opponents....each favoring the other team, so - the margins are thinner then you think.....and I by in large agree with your handicapping style, common opponents, but feel in nfl, it is necessary due to the parity to adjust for momentum much more then college

Vikings didnt have their starting QB? They dont count.
The Eagles game was included? Not sure what you are saying?

You have 0 adjustment or factor for the fact the chiefs are hot ?.......also can look at packers to end the year, or multiple teams yearly that make postseason runs

They're not that hot!...They never scored more than than 17points against Baltimore and only 27 vs Miami in zreo temps.. and squeaked by Buffalo while being out yarded badly. I dont count 2 games agains the Chargers and Bengals as wins for being hot? They are good but the public is not seeing everything except 3 games.
I also make it clear that the Run game for SF is the best in the league and is complemented by a very good running QB. KC run game is not on par with SF.

Record vs playoffs teams - this held true vs buffalo as a negative to kc, and also in comparison to Baltimore.

I disagree that the niners are better as a team this year then last year , and disagree with the assertion the niners have a better defense then the ravens........also i disagree at strength of schedule being better for san fran here - it's negligible as everyone knows entire nfl is watered down.

Well - KC played only 3 playoff teams.. In fact KC was less effective against Miami than what Baltimore did to Miami.

As a whole, during the regular season the niners were better, but this is not bama vs georgia type comparison vs other college teams, this is nfl........

So?

I try to bleed out all the seahawks and cardinals games on this niners schedule, they are not a super great team and have flaws, defense regressed from last year mightily, and are facing the hottest coach and qb in the league who have made adjustments postseason.

If any team that remains is regressed - its KC, scoring 29pts a game last year and only 23 this year.
SF was better on offense moving from 27 up to 29 pts/gm and ranked #3 in the entire NFL on defense - while still facing 6 playoff teams.,
How is SF regressing "Mightily" ? LOL - when the SF defense is the same.@18pts per game.

What i see is that Detroit lived up to its last 6 games last year (2022) and played well in all the games this year. GB was improved a lot. Philly was still great at 10-1 when SF played them and Dallas was about the same.

KC faced two teams that improved from last year to this year - Detroit and Green bay. They lost both!. They also lost to Philly SU...

SF beat all 3. Two in the playoffs!
If it was the other way around and if KC would have beat 3 teams that beat SF - then the Chiefs would be the favorite and would likely be the winner...
Not Now.

These main points are why SF is my play along with the writeup factors.

BOL to you on your play.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Vikings didnt have their starting QB? They dont count.
The Eagles game was included? Not sure what you are saying?

They're not that hot!...They never scored more than than 17points against Baltimore and only 27 vs Miami in zreo temps.. and squeaked by Buffalo while being out yarded badly. I dont count 2 games agains the Chargers and Bengals as wins for being hot? They are good but the public is not seeing everything except 3 games.
I also make it clear that the Run game for SF is the best in the league and is complemented by a very good running QB. KC run game is not on par with SF.

Well - KC played only 3 playoff teams.. In fact KC was less effective against Miami than what Baltimore did to Miami.

So?


If any team that remains is regressed - its KC, scoring 29pts a game last year and only 23 this year.
SF was better on offense moving from 27 up to 29 pts/gm and ranked #3 in the entire NFL on defense - while still facing 6 playoff teams.,
How is SF regressing "Mightily" ? LOL - when the SF defense is the same.@18pts per game.

What i see is that Detroit lived up to its last 6 games last year (2022) and played well in all the games this year. GB was improved a lot. Philly was still great at 10-1 when SF played them and Dallas was about the same.

KC faced two teams that improved from last year to this year - Detroit and Green bay. They lost both!. They also lost to Philly SU...

SF beat all 3. Two in the playoffs!
If it was the other way around and if KC would have beat 3 teams that beat SF - then the Chiefs would be the favorite and would likely be the winner...
Not Now.

These main points are why SF is my play along with the writeup factors.

BOL to you on your play.

They don’t count? But Chiefs missed Jones and Kelce when they lost to Lions, and they still count? This is mental gymnastics.

 

[Inspekdah]

Vikings didnt have their starting QB? They dont count.
The Eagles game was included? Not sure what you are saying?

They're not that hot!...They never scored more than than 17points against Baltimore and only 27 vs Miami in zreo temps.. and squeaked by Buffalo while being out yarded badly. I dont count 2 games agains the Chargers and Bengals as wins for being hot? They are good but the public is not seeing everything except 3 games.
I also make it clear that the Run game for SF is the best in the league and is complemented by a very good running QB. KC run game is not on par with SF.

Well - KC played only 3 playoff teams.. In fact KC was less effective against Miami than what Baltimore did to Miami.

So?


If any team that remains is regressed - its KC, scoring 29pts a game last year and only 23 this year.
SF was better on offense moving from 27 up to 29 pts/gm and ranked #3 in the entire NFL on defense - while still facing 6 playoff teams.,
How is SF regressing "Mightily" ? LOL - when the SF defense is the same.@18pts per game.

What i see is that Detroit lived up to its last 6 games last year (2022) and played well in all the games this year. GB was improved a lot. Philly was still great at 10-1 when SF played them and Dallas was about the same.

KC faced two teams that improved from last year to this year - Detroit and Green bay. They lost both!. They also lost to Philly SU...

SF beat all 3. Two in the playoffs!
If it was the other way around and if KC would have beat 3 teams that beat SF - then the Chiefs would be the favorite and would likely be the winner...
Not Now.

These main points are why SF is my play along with the writeup factors.

BOL to you on your play.

Great points.

 

[Inspekdah]

They don’t count? But Chiefs missed Jones and Kelce when they lost to Lions, and they still count? This is mental gymnastics.

Some of the games without starting QBs were basically free wins. Talking TD swinging spreads, not half points like a DT/TE.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Some of the games without starting QBs were basically free wins. Talking TD swinging spreads, not half points like a DT/TE.

CJ a game-changer on defense and Kelce was Mahomes‘ only target.

 

[EL CAPO]

Kirk cousins didn't play against both teams ?? Yes he did

Look at chiefs run game and total yards vs dolphins regular season vs post season and tell me they aren't hot.......the run game has improved. Chiefs o outplayed regular season projections in all 3 postseason games and had another TD vs Baltimore on a screen called off for a bull holding call .....23 points at half should of been...predictably went into Conservative mode with a lead 2nd half and didn't need to score with a great d.

Georgia 21 was clearly and obviously in everyone and their square brothers opinion the superior regular season team with insane dominance.....this isn't in that level of difference of regular season disparity and small adjustments by coaching staffs make big differences in nfl

 

[EL CAPO]

They don’t count? But Chiefs missed Jones and Kelce when they lost to Lions, and they still count? This is mental gymnastics.

Cousins played both games

 

[G-Man]

They don’t count? But Chiefs missed Jones and Kelce when they lost to Lions, and they still count? This is mental gymnastics.

Correction. I mis-spoke on the QB being out.
I was actually referring to that Minnesota was NOT a winning team when KC played them... They were 1-3 SU then.
But teams with losing records at the time the games were played were not counted.
Cousin was playing but Minnesota was 1-3.

I was just saying SF was 3-0 and KC was 0-3. but when SF played all three teams, they all had starters. I was only replying to your reply.

Also I didnt include the First game of the season with Detroit in the write up analysis.
thats why they weren't used because Detroit didnt have a winning record yet 0-0 in the first game of the season.
BUT all-in-all. SF played all 6 teams with starting QB's... But the Vikings game didnt count as noted in the analysis.

Remember -I said KC only played THREE "winning-record" teams DURING the season....when they met.
Even though KC lost they still had Moahomes for every game. They should have won one of those games but didnt.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Correction. I mis-spoke on the QB being out.
I was actually referring to that Minnesota was NOT a winning team when KC played them... They were 1-3 SU then.
But teams with losing records at the time the games were played were not counted.
Cousin was playing but Minnesota was 1-3.

I was just saying SF was 3-0 and KC was 0-3. but when SF played all three teams, they all had starters. I was only replying to your reply.

Also I didnt include the First game of the season with Detroit in the write up analysis.
thats why they weren't used because Detroit didnt have a winning record yet 0-0 in the first game of the season.
BUT all-in-all. SF played all 6 teams with starting QB's... But the Vikings game didnt count as noted in the analysis.

Remember -I said KC only played THREE "winning-record" teams DURING the season....when they met.
Even though KC lost they still had Moahomes for every game. They should have won one of those games but didnt.

KC beat 1-0 Jax. That was before Jax‘s later-season defensive collapse. KC also beat the Dolphins. I don’t get where you‘re getting this stat from, unless there’s some arbitrary reason why these win’s don’t count? Their O started to put things together toward the end, only their opponents happened to be losing teams — Bengals fringe playoff team tho. And why restrict it to during the regular season? Again seems arbitrary to me.

 

[G-Man]

KC beat 1-0 Jax. That was before Jax‘s later-season defensive collapse. KC also beat the Dolphins. I don’t get where you‘re getting this stat from, unless there’s some arbitrary reason why these win’s don’t count? Their O started to put things together toward the end, only their opponents happened to be losing teams — Bengals fringe playoff team tho. And why restrict it to during the regular season? Again seems arbitrary to me.

Yes they did. It was posted in the paragraph of My writeup > where I said "How Did They Get here"...

You are right - I overlooked the Miami game on Nov. 5th. OOPS!

I use the regular season stats because playoff games arent enough of an accumulation of consistancy. Especially for week one Wild Card or First Playpff game for any team.
Otherwise I would have used the Houston thrashing by Baltimore 34-10 to compare the Ravens for their game against KC. I would have been misled by that outcome.

Playoff games aren't true enough to any reliable data, unless we have the same teams from a year ago with the same players playing again this year.

But the lines are made with all that over reaction by the masses.
The Public loves Dogs that win SU and plays them historically the following week - which is what we now have with the masses (62%) on KC against SF. Especially if they beat a public team was ranked No#1.

IMO the regular season numbers have the most value coming into the playoffs.

The Ravens reg season numbers on offense and defense where way over inflated. They faced several broken teams (4 games in the North division) that were against broken teams.

KC/Buffalo were more even by who each played - but I felt that KC has the better offense. It was a shootout but it won.

Someone made the comment that KC would score more on SF than they did on Baltimore...
But I see it that SF will score way more on KC than Balt did because SF has the complete offense with McCaffrey.

In College you have only regular season games to decide who is in the National Championship Final Four and who is better.

They get one pre selected playoff game based on Ranking and its really misleading.
Just like when TCU beat Michigan or Alabama beat Georgia in a conference playoff game and two weeks later Georgia killed Alabama in 2021 Nat Champ game- Then Killed TCU a year later 2022 in the National Champ game.!
The regular season games were what mattered..
The huge masses were buried when TCU was crushed by Georgia after TCU blew out Mich.
Its all an over reaction instead of seeing who they played all year to get there....


In NFL each playoff game isnt enough either - so regular season games is all that there is ...
A 2-3 game playoff run doest tell enough.

I guess we'll all see next week.

Thanks for pointing out the Maimi game.

Appreciate the feedback.

GL.

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

CJ a game-changer on defense and Kelce was Mahomes‘ only target.

He changed the outcome of the BILLS Chiefs game all by himself ...
Batted down what would have been a wide open td in the first half on 3rd down ( Bills settled for FG) ...On Bills final drive he pushed Dawkins in to Allen altering his throw to a wide open Shakir for what could have been a game winning TD .

JONES is a DEFENSIVE MVP in the playoffs..Absolute stud when the game is on the line.

 

[C-70 Blues]

SF loses toBaltimore 33-19 in week. 14. Niners had 5 int's to lose badly, More important fact was the Niners had way more yardage in the loss. SF out gained Ravens by 110 yds. Calculate that into the performance and remove the 5 turnovers and SF wins easily.

First lets discuss the yardage. SF gained 166 yards AFTER falling behind 33-12 in the fourth qtr. That was all garbage yardage that youre referring to. Also, the 9ers outgained Baltimore by 86, not 110 yards.

Second, and more important, the five turnovers committed by the niners. You say they would have won easily if the 5 turnovers were subtracted. Why would you subtract the turnovers?? Arent they a huge part of the game???

 

[Inspekdah]

He changed the outcome of the BILLS Chiefs game all by himself ...
Batted down what would have been a wide open td in the first half on 3rd down ( Bills settled for FG) ...On Bills final drive he pushed Dawkins in to Allen altering his throw to a wide open Shakir for what could have been a game winning TD .

JONES is a DEFENSIVE MVP in the playoffs..Absolute stud when the game is on the line.

Interior pressure would have absolutely destroyed Jimmy G. Thankfully Big Cock Brock can roll a bit away. He'll have to as Jones wants a contract!

 

[Inspekdah]

SF loses toBaltimore 33-19 in week. 14. Niners had 5 int's to lose badly, More important fact was the Niners had way more yardage in the loss. SF out gained Ravens by 110 yds. Calculate that into the performance and remove the 5 turnovers and SF wins easily.

First lets discuss the yardage. SF gained 166 yards AFTER falling behind 33-12 in the fourth qtr. That was all garbage yardage that youre referring to. Also, the 9ers outgained Baltimore by 86, not 110 yards.

Second, and more important, the five turnovers committed by the niners. You say they would have won easily if the 5 turnovers were subtracted. Why would you subtract the turnovers?? Arent they a huge part of the game???

9ers went right down the field and pushed Balty around on defense first 10 mins of that game before the pick. The other 3 were bad luck tipped passes.

It happens but very hard to cap.

 

[C-70 Blues]

9ers went right down the field and pushed Balty around on defense first 10 mins of that game before the pick.

Yardage does not equal success. That's fantasy football rationale right there.

 

[G-Man]

"Yardage does not equal success". That's fantasy football rationale right there.

LOL. Does it indicate failure?

Yardage...It indicates ball movement and scoring success.. Fantasy stats mean nothing in winning games by points off turnovers. . And points are greatly affected by turnovers...

The Chiefs averages this year were - Including playoffs.
Passing yds/gm. For.245. Against 178.
Rushing. For. 109. Agianst. 115

SF Passing. For. 257. Against. 216
Rushing.For. 140. Against 97.

SF has the Edge!
When was the last time a negative yardage team made it to the SB?

SF out-yarded 14 teams in games this year. KC 13.
Thats not an indicator of success???

 

[MikeU]

Season. Year to date: 119-79. (60%) . $+9,660.00

San Francisco vs Kansas City
Lots to consider.
Common opponents with playoff teams are main factors.
What happened in those games. How did they win or lose?
What were the tougher opponents up until this game?
Who was battle-tested the most all season.?

Lets compare a few,
Lions+4 beat KC in week-one in KC 21-20.
KC led 14-7 at the half.
Lions scored on a 50 yd int return to tie it up in the 3rd.
KC had 2 FG's the rest of the game. Lions scored a TD with 7 min remaining to win.
Chiefs never got close enough to win it with a fg.

SF -7 beat Detroit - but was getting run over with the Lions run game.
A second half defensive adjustment shutout Detroit in the 2nd half except for a back door TD with seconds on the clock.
Summary: Chiefs were underachieving in week one and continued to score less than the season earlier, as the year went on.

SF loses toBaltimore 33-19 in week. 14. Niners had 5 int's to lose badly, More important fact was the Niners had way more yardage in the loss. SF out gained Ravens by 110 yds. Calculate that into the performance and remove the 5 turnovers and SF wins easily.

Chiefs beat Balt in Balt in a tight game 17-10. Both scores were the lowest of both teams in a playoff game. (The Week before, Ravens rolled up 34 vs Houston. But Ravens were held to only 10 points in the first half). An indicator that a better defense could possibly beat Baltimore - which KC did.

KC lost to Green Bay 19-27.
SF beat GB 24-21.

How did they get here...
Chiefs played 3 teams with winning records at the time they played during the season before the playoffs started. They got here on a fairly weak schedule.
Those teams were Miami (6-2) Jacksonville(1-0) and Philly (8-1). None of the other teams had winning records during the regular season when KC played them.

SF played 6 teams with winning records. Rams (1-0), Dallas (3-1), Jacksonville (6-2) Seattle (6-4), Philly (10-1) Balt (11-3).

Who was battle-tested the most?
Niners were 5-1 su against those teams.
Chiefs were 2-1 SU against the teams they played.
Note: SF beat Philly 42-19.
While KC lost 17-21while being shut out in the second half - with a 17-7 halftime lead.

KC lacks a good running game.
Niners have McCaffrey, who could be MVP?
Both teams have great Tight Ends but Kelce is just better.
Niners run defense (3.8yds/Run) is better than KC(4.5).

Niners are superior on offense with #3 run game and #4 passing game while
KC is #17 running and #8 passing.
Based on level of competition - SF is better.

SF is the best defensive team the Chiefs have faced all season. Even better than Baltimore.
Baltmore was held to 110 yards less than what SF gained in the Ravens game when SF had 5 turnovers. Thats the secret ingredient in what decides this game.

The Ravens had 3 turnovers against KC and that big fumble by Flowers at the 1 yard line to change the outcome of that game.

My GOY Play.
SF ML (-130). 25 units. (waiting on Injury updates).
Will confirm bet on next updated injury report. Making sure Samuel, Kittle, McCaffrey and Purdy are all healthy.
May add some half-time bets(1&2) and total before game time.
It was a great season.
Thanks for all the feed back.
Best of luck to all.

Appreciate your posts and insights all season long my G-MAN. BOL on the Super Bowl

 

[C-70 Blues]

"Yardage...It indicates ball movement and scoring success.. Fantasy stats mean nothing in winning games by points off turnovers. . And points are greatly affected by turnovers..."

If you believe points are greatly affected by turnovers why do you still consider that ass-kicking SF took at the hands of Baltimore as a fluke?

 

[Inspekdah]

"Yardage...It indicates ball movement and scoring success.. Fantasy stats mean nothing in winning games by points off turnovers. . And points are greatly affected by turnovers..."

If you believe points are greatly affected by turnovers why do you still consider that ass-kicking SF took at the hands of Baltimore as a fluke?

Because as he writes. Points are greatly affected by turnovers.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Because as he writes. Points are greatly affected by turnovers.

Are you going to offer a substantive response to the claim or just uselessly scoff at it?

 

[Inspekdah]

Are you going to offer a substantive response to the claim or just uselessly scoff at it?

I feel like G Man is clearly insinuating and answering that turnovers equal variance in scoring. The who guy is asking the same question again and it’s already been answered by the bolded comment.

 

[C-70 Blues]

When is he going to respond to my line by line breakdown of his "capping reasons" to take SF? He has this a 25 unit game of the year but he doesn't show any evidence of SF having a huge advantage over KC. Maybe you guys should take a look at that as well.