G-Man's Friday Play. Boise/San Jose State 10-24-08

G-Man

Pretty much a regular
Well... here is another great play IMO. This game measures up like my Browns + play over the Giants back on Monday night.

We have nearly the same spread 7-7.5 and the game is another sucker bet. This could be the second Shocktober (see avatar below) game this month.

I havent been impressed with Boise at all this year - especially after struggling with Bowling Green.

Well, here is only the third road game for Boise and this time they dont cover - and - I'm looking for a possible shocker SU win here as well.

For those who believe they really beat Oregon ( beside what the score said) - keep in mind here Oregon had third string and worse backup qb's play in that game, and they almost pulled it out. More so, Boise was playing a 17th ranked Oregon team without its best player. Boise wasnt even a top 25 team then. This ranking they have now is going to get tested here.

The Giants were undefeated when they went to Cleveland. They were also overconfident after smashing the Browns in the preseason mess that swayed the public and the Giants as well, into thinking it was going to be easy.

That Browns/Giants scenario isnt exactly the same with this game in San Jose, but the overconfidence is there for a Boise team that is truly nothing like Boise has fielded the past couple seasons. This is also the only team Boise has played on the road with a winning record with their starters playing. Oregon didnt have that.

San Jose is a vastly improved team even with 2 losses,(both on the road) and they are looking to kick some donkey-ass in this game.
Boise whipped them 42-7 last year in Boise.

SJ has been playing great defense as they have 13 interceptions and that was counting 3 road games. More validation of being improved is that they are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in the conference.

I am concerened with one stat. Kyle Reed who is hitting 69% of his passes, did have 3 ints last week against New Mexico St. giving him a TD/Int ratio of 7-6 on the season.

Boise QB Kellen Moore is hitting 72% and TD/Int is 13-3. That may change here against the first HEALTHY winning team they face this year.

Getting 7 plus at home is too many and I see them putting pressure with their defense on the Boise offense.

SJ is a solid team worthy of a large play, especially with a revenge game at home.


San Jose +7.5 (-115) (15 units)

ML +260 5 Units

Bets made on 10-21-08



GLTA


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you and i are thinking alike again...that browns play was my biggest of the year in the nfl, and this play is my biggest of the year in college...hope this one is just as easy

this is going to sound crazy due to the stats, but i have watched quite a bit of these two teams, and i actually think reed is the better qb than moore. moore is going to have to beat sjsu to compete, and i obviously am not confident that he can do so. this should be a bruising battle, as both teams want to run and stop the run...just think sjsu will be better at it. boise is not the high powered offense they've had in the past, but they do have some very solid backs. if they can't run, which i don't believe they will be able to, that throws a huge kink in what they do well in the passing game as well. you're absolutely right about that oregon game...a lot of very weird things happened in that game to allow them to win even with oregon's qb situation. i like a 24-20 sjsu win

:cheers:
 
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And don't forget what happened the last time a ranked team came into San Jose on a Friday night. Colt Brennan and company had to come back from 14 down with less than 5 minutes left in the game to tie it and eventually win it in O.T. Very similar situation tonight. SJSU basically played lights out against a very potent Hawaii offense up until the final 6 minutes in the game or so. SJSU also had a revenge factor in that game after getting blown out 54-17 the previous year in Hawaii.

Nice writeup G, GL
 
As an alumnus of SJSU I hope you all are right...been snakebitten the last 3 times a ranked opponent has come into SJSU to play...all 3 games lost in the last seconds after SJSU being up in the 4th...heartbreaking.

Great analysis and again hope Spartans can pull off major shocker!
Will be watching with many a Maker's Mark on hand...and in stomach.

GLTYA
 
G-man, go them already at +7.5 for 1 unit, hopefully I can get 8 before gametime and get another unit or two on them

BOL.
 
you and i are thinking alike again...that browns play was my biggest of the year in the nfl, and this play is my biggest of the year in college...hope this one is just as easy

this is going to sound crazy due to the stats, but i have watched quite a bit of these two teams, and i actually think reed is the better qb than moore. moore is going to have to beat sjsu to compete, and i obviously am not confident that he can do so. this should be a bruising battle, as both teams want to run and stop the run...just think sjsu will be better at it. boise is not the high powered offense they've had in the past, but they do have some very solid backs. if they can't run, which i don't believe they will be able to, that throws a huge kink in what they do well in the passing game as well. you're absolutely right about that oregon game...a lot of very weird things happened in that game to allow them to win even with oregon's qb situation. i like a 24-20 sjsu win

:cheers:


Sounds good to me!
 
I'm on the exact same plays and could not agree 1 bit more. I just posted a similar but less insightful write up:
The numbers all point to a Boise blow out, right? However, they are just 6-7 on the road ATS over past 3 years.
SJ ST on the other hand is 11-1 at home, which is just unreal.
As of now my play is SJST +7.5, 2 Units unless someone can talk me out of this....what am I missing?

A play I possibly like better is the under, Boise is 4-9 on the road and SJST is 4-8 at home for over/under. Past matchups have scored higher but perhaps the defenses are improved over prior years
 
I'm on the exact same plays and could not agree 1 bit more. I just posted a similar but less insightful write up:
The numbers all point to a Boise blow out, right? However, they are just 6-7 on the road ATS over past 3 years.
SJ ST on the other hand is 11-1 at home, which is just unreal.
As of now my play is SJST +7.5, 2 Units unless someone can talk me out of this....what am I missing?

A play I possibly like better is the under, Boise is 4-9 on the road and SJST is 4-8 at home for over/under. Past matchups have scored higher but perhaps the defenses are improved over prior years


You are right on the SJ defense. Boise has a good one but its only been tested by losers. Tonight will tell a lot.

Good Feedback with your facts. :shake:
 
While I disagree with BSU not being impressive, remember Oregon, I completely agree with this being a tough spot for them.

gl too us
 
As an alumnus of SJSU I hope you all are right...been snakebitten the last 3 times a ranked opponent has come into SJSU to play...all 3 games lost in the last seconds after SJSU being up in the 4th...heartbreaking.

Great analysis and again hope Spartans can pull off major shocker!
Will be watching with many a Maker's Mark on hand...and in stomach.

GLTYA


Cheers!:cheers:
 
And don't forget what happened the last time a ranked team came into San Jose on a Friday night. Colt Brennan and company had to come back from 14 down with less than 5 minutes left in the game to tie it and eventually win it in O.T. Very similar situation tonight. SJSU basically played lights out against a very potent Hawaii offense up until the final 6 minutes in the game or so. SJSU also had a revenge factor in that game after getting blown out 54-17 the previous year in Hawaii.

Nice writeup G, GL


Good points and Hawaii had no defense... SJ does! :shake:
 
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