G-Man
Pretty much a regular
2024. Season: 213- 169 .( 55.5%) Plus+ +16,574.00
Week zero. 1-2. -398.00
THURSDAY Aug 28. 5:30PM
Ranked #25. BSU -5.5 (Open 9.5) (33-68) 10 units
Only ranked team on the day.
Boise returns 14 starters w/QB from a plus 14 coring team and a great 23 point defense. They can only be better than last year.
Boise is impressive as they lost to PSU in olayoffs - but Boise had 4 turnovers in a 31-14 loss and still outgained PSU.
USF. Returns 16 starters w QB but was only a plus 2 scoring team.
Public drove opening line down by 3.5 pts? USF lost 3 of 4 of its games LY to higher scoring +plus teams.
One other loss was to Rice who was lower scoring than USF.
Consensus Bets are 63% on USF but lets note" This USF team won its bowl game against San Jose St but was out yarded by 150 yds. SJSU was ranked in the worst 50-% at 65th on offesne and 74th on defense last yer. Both teams were 0-5 SU vs bowlers before the bowl matchup. The USF defense will never stop the seasoned Bosie offense.
Bosie brings back a lot from last year and was a top ranked #4 team on offesnse and #33 defense a year ago. They can only get better with this returning group.
Rutgers -15.5 (Open 10.5) (31-57) 10 Units
Ohio has hardly any returning on defense. Just 4 return from last year. That will be what takes them down from last years conferece winner. Bobcats were a plus +11 team, but will struggle to break even this year. The defense was solid at 18 pts allowed per game but with only 4 returning defensive starters, expect the D to allow an extra 7 pts + per game this year.
Rutgers is returning a great group. Seventeen starters(17) w /QB which will bring them up in the standings this year. They were a plus 4 team LY with a tough schedule and went 7-6. They can name the score against Ohio and should be at full throttle for game 1.
OHIO allowed over 40p.st /gm vs out of conferecen teams last year. They bring back a small fraction of player swho were good on defense a year ago, but they were never good out of their division.
NC State now -14. (Open -12.5) (39-43) 5 units
NS St. They lost to E. Carolina in last years final game This will be a revenge game. NC St. as they return 17 starters w/QB. They were a negative scoring team LY, 29-30 but will see significant improvement this year. Last time they returned more than 5 defensive starters, they owned a 19 pt defense. If that continues this year, after allowing 31 pts/gm, they should put up wins.
East Carolina returns a fraction of the team rhey had a year ago. Only 7 total starters are back 5 on offense w/QB. LY they were a plus 5 scoring team (32-27) but those numbers should flip significantly with this squad. The points here for game one(1) wont help them.
UCF now -20.5 (Open -16.5) (33-68) 5 units
UCF- A stat that you cant find in the past results? UCF pulled in 25 prime transfers, including QB's Cam Fancher who had 28 starts at Marshall and FAU and Taven Jackson (Indiana).. They are ranked 6th in nation with this off-season transfer portal.
That should completely reverse their 4-8 record from last year. $$$.
JVSU. They lack returnees. Only six(6) are back. The solid 9-5 2024 season with a plus 10 scoring advantrage will vanish this year. Also gone is head coach Rich Rodriguez who now boards in West Virginia.
WYOMING Now - 5.5 . (Open 9.5) (27-58) 5 units
The Cowboys Return 14 starters w/QB . the defense with be tested with only 5 of them returning.
LY the Cowboys were a minus -9 point scoring team
In the best of the last 4 years, Wyo never scored more than Plus 3 in any season. Hard part for them wil be stopping opponents although they did manage a somewhat respectable defense, allowing 28 points per game.
More important was that Wyoming faced three straight bowlers in the last three games to finish the season and held all three to 24pts or less by allowing only 24pts to Colorado State, 17 to Bosie, and 14 to Washington State. Very impressive numbers vs those winning teams.
Akron. Returns 8 starters but only 5 w/QB on offense and 3 on D. They are a negative -12. scoring team. They wont do much in week 1.
Neither team was in a Bolw game LY but Ming is far more talented with retuning 14 players
Minnesota Now 17.5.> (18) (Open 17.5) (16-60) 5 Units
Minnesota returns a solid group of 13 and owned a 17pt defense last year. They were a plus 12 team and may have trouble on offense with a transfer QB from BC. Defensively it doesn't look like another 12th ranked 17 point defense, so if they are a plus team of 6 or more TY it will be all anyone could expect.
The schedule they had LY was brutal and they still manged to hold every opponent to 27 pts or less except IOWA. They also were only out-gained by 19 total yeads vs 7 bowlers!
Buffalo. They return a large group of 16 w/QB with a Plus 3 team. The defense should post some better numbers from the 26pts/gm they allowed LY - but it wont be against better teams.
As decent as they were on defense last year overall, they had four losses and were blown out. by allowing an average of 44 points per game.
Minn should have a good day in week one against this group.
WISC Now 17.5 (18) Open -17.5) 5 units
Badgers were dead even last year scoring, allowing 23 pts per game. They return 14 starters w/QB and knowing that they faced the last 7 games vs Bowlers (three ranked in top 5) and still managed to not get outscored for the year - puts them up a notch on opening day VS Maimi. Oh. If the Bowlers game points Wisconsin allowed were tallied, you would see they gave up and avg of 39 pts. Playing Mia, O in week one(1) should not be close.
Miami, OH
By far the worst team with only 1 returning legitiment starter (Transfer QB-Finn from Baylor) on offense from last year with only 5 on defense.
They pulled some transfers (14) but losing 16 from a year ago with a tteam that was an estblished winners in back-to-back seasons prior - will have a hard time getting to that level of talent from transfers.
They open with two impossible games and will be 0-2. Wisconsin and Rutgers.
NEB now -6.5 (open -7) (27-67) 5 units
Nebraska returns 15 starters w/QB and arrives with a bowl level squad for the first time in the L4 years. They were a plus 5 scoring team with better-than-most defense, which allowed only 19 pts per game.
Opening on the road vs Cincinnati in a neutral site game in KC Arrowhead stadium, should produce a completely focused SU win as they wont be facing much compeltition in the first 3 weeks until they face Michigan in week four(4).
Cincinnati returns a large group with 16 starters w/QB and nine of those are on defense. They return a larger group of "production" players and should be completive until they face ranked teams. They were outscored by bowl-level teams last year, that produced a losing season at 5-7. They still managed to end up even in points scored and allowed for the yar at 25 per game/ That gives them a good chance to become a positive scroing team with all the returning players. That makes for a good underdog getting points ATS.
Cincy was 0-5 SU and 0-5 TATS against Bowlers and winning record teams, to finish the season LY.
Friday
Georgia Tech -4.5 3 units
Colorado transfered Liberty conf player of the year QB Kaiden Salter to replace NFL drafted Sheddeur Sanders.
He wont be good enough. He has only a 56% completion rate LY. Its hard to replace a QB that was drafter the prior year.
GT returns 14 starters with the QB and will be solid this season.
Sam Houston +9.5 3 units.
Both teams bring less than 6 returing starters rom a year ago. Both were Bowlers last year. Both winners.
A near Home field game in Houston should perk up Sam Houston for this game. Take the points.
UNLV returns only 5 sstarters.
With one game played already by Sam Houston, they should improve from last weeks loss.
San Jose State -13.5 3 units
SJSU returns a solid grpoup with 13 starters with starting QB.
C.Mich returns a negative scoring team with a defense that allowed 40 pts/game on the road.
Saturday. Big Games Day.
NOON:
Tennessee -14. over Syracuse. 10 units
Vols were a # 8 offfense and #3 defense last year. No way for Cuse to stay in this with only 10 total starters back/
They pulled in LSU backup QB Rickie Collins, but facing Tenn will prove impossible with that defense in which 8 starters return..
Tennesse was a PLUS 20 scoring team LY and that includes beating Florida and Alabam by holding both teams to 17 points each. Cuse will never score much on this group.
OHIO State ML -120. 10 units
Public is on Texas and will put Arch Manning up against the toughest team he will face all year in the Shoe. This is the revenge game of the year without a doubt . But Ewing was an outstanding QB in the Bowl playoff game vs OSU and Manning isnt at that level.
Texas does have a great defense with 7 starting players back but you need to score more than 24 points to beat OSU and they wont be quite as good as they were last year, allowing 15 pts per game. But they allowed OSU to roll up 370 yds in a neutral site game?
One issue will be that TEX lost all four statng offenseive linemen. That level of talent is hard to replace. The OSU pass rush wont be stopped..
The Buskeyes always re-load and thats what keeps them beating good teams.
In the last 2 seasons when Ohio State didnt return a starting QB, they still managed to average 31 and 46 points per game in those seasons. They always have a solid run game to play.
While Ohio State lost an NFL drafted QB in Will Howard, keep in mind he was a sixth round pick and not one of the top tier drafted. So the drop off may not be as sgnificant as many would expect - If at all.
Georgia -38 3 units
Marshall will have to wait until next game to score. This team returns only 4 starters. They lost 25 players and their head coach who went to MIssissippi State. This will be a learning curve for Marshall this year. Maybe a severe Dead Man curve, as they will likely struggle to make a .500 record.
The small bet is because Georgia may quit out of pity for this rebuilding team. Better nknown as the Back Door Cover.
Forida State +14 over Alabama. 3 units
FSU 1H +7. 3 units
FSU made out big in the transfer portal They also have 6 new coaches to bolster an offnese that now includes BC star QB Tommy Castellanos who massed 5100 yds with BC and UCF
The Tide struggled last year in road games on the season/ They managed 3pts at Oklahoma and only 13pts vs Michigan. That is nothing like what Saban was.
Clemson -3.5 over LSU. 5 units
Clemson rolled up 400 yds vs Texas LY and 24 points. The Texas defense only alowed 15 points avg on the season. LSU could never be compared with that.
Clemson returns 17 starters with the QB in a home game that likely to pull out a win here.
LSU' three (3) lowest scoring games last year were on the road against USC, A&M and Florida. Those games were 20, 16 and 13 pts.
Sunday
Notre Dame ML -130 over Mia Fla. 10 units
Number #1 Offense ayear ago was Miami Fla. But they never faced one opponent at the level of ND. Lots of transfers came to Mia in hopes of National Championship. In game one(1) on the season this will be the top team they play all year.
They stole Carson Beck from Georgia at QB, but if you dont play defense then you dont get the ball much.
The Caines bring back 8 starters on D' but they were a 25 pt defense which isnt good enough to stop a team like ND here.
Looking at the last 4 games both teams played out last year, ND was clearly playing far better competition.
Even with the number one(#1) offense last year, Mia lost 3 of the last 4 games including the loss to Iowa State in the Bowl game, 41-42.
MONDAY (Labor Day) Sept 1st. 6 units
NC +3.5.
Here we go! Its Billy-ball now at the college level. If he ends up doing what Nick Saban did, (Both coaches early days in Cleveland) this could be a tremendous team. The defensive Guru should put together a squad that may just end up with a top 25 defense. If that happens - then TCU is in trouble in the first game.
Week zero. 1-2. -398.00
THURSDAY Aug 28. 5:30PM
Ranked #25. BSU -5.5 (Open 9.5) (33-68) 10 units
Only ranked team on the day.
Boise returns 14 starters w/QB from a plus 14 coring team and a great 23 point defense. They can only be better than last year.
Boise is impressive as they lost to PSU in olayoffs - but Boise had 4 turnovers in a 31-14 loss and still outgained PSU.
USF. Returns 16 starters w QB but was only a plus 2 scoring team.
Public drove opening line down by 3.5 pts? USF lost 3 of 4 of its games LY to higher scoring +plus teams.
One other loss was to Rice who was lower scoring than USF.
Consensus Bets are 63% on USF but lets note" This USF team won its bowl game against San Jose St but was out yarded by 150 yds. SJSU was ranked in the worst 50-% at 65th on offesne and 74th on defense last yer. Both teams were 0-5 SU vs bowlers before the bowl matchup. The USF defense will never stop the seasoned Bosie offense.
Bosie brings back a lot from last year and was a top ranked #4 team on offesnse and #33 defense a year ago. They can only get better with this returning group.
Rutgers -15.5 (Open 10.5) (31-57) 10 Units
Ohio has hardly any returning on defense. Just 4 return from last year. That will be what takes them down from last years conferece winner. Bobcats were a plus +11 team, but will struggle to break even this year. The defense was solid at 18 pts allowed per game but with only 4 returning defensive starters, expect the D to allow an extra 7 pts + per game this year.
Rutgers is returning a great group. Seventeen starters(17) w /QB which will bring them up in the standings this year. They were a plus 4 team LY with a tough schedule and went 7-6. They can name the score against Ohio and should be at full throttle for game 1.
OHIO allowed over 40p.st /gm vs out of conferecen teams last year. They bring back a small fraction of player swho were good on defense a year ago, but they were never good out of their division.
NC State now -14. (Open -12.5) (39-43) 5 units
NS St. They lost to E. Carolina in last years final game This will be a revenge game. NC St. as they return 17 starters w/QB. They were a negative scoring team LY, 29-30 but will see significant improvement this year. Last time they returned more than 5 defensive starters, they owned a 19 pt defense. If that continues this year, after allowing 31 pts/gm, they should put up wins.
East Carolina returns a fraction of the team rhey had a year ago. Only 7 total starters are back 5 on offense w/QB. LY they were a plus 5 scoring team (32-27) but those numbers should flip significantly with this squad. The points here for game one(1) wont help them.
UCF now -20.5 (Open -16.5) (33-68) 5 units
UCF- A stat that you cant find in the past results? UCF pulled in 25 prime transfers, including QB's Cam Fancher who had 28 starts at Marshall and FAU and Taven Jackson (Indiana).. They are ranked 6th in nation with this off-season transfer portal.
That should completely reverse their 4-8 record from last year. $$$.
JVSU. They lack returnees. Only six(6) are back. The solid 9-5 2024 season with a plus 10 scoring advantrage will vanish this year. Also gone is head coach Rich Rodriguez who now boards in West Virginia.
WYOMING Now - 5.5 . (Open 9.5) (27-58) 5 units
The Cowboys Return 14 starters w/QB . the defense with be tested with only 5 of them returning.
LY the Cowboys were a minus -9 point scoring team
In the best of the last 4 years, Wyo never scored more than Plus 3 in any season. Hard part for them wil be stopping opponents although they did manage a somewhat respectable defense, allowing 28 points per game.
More important was that Wyoming faced three straight bowlers in the last three games to finish the season and held all three to 24pts or less by allowing only 24pts to Colorado State, 17 to Bosie, and 14 to Washington State. Very impressive numbers vs those winning teams.
Akron. Returns 8 starters but only 5 w/QB on offense and 3 on D. They are a negative -12. scoring team. They wont do much in week 1.
Neither team was in a Bolw game LY but Ming is far more talented with retuning 14 players
Minnesota Now 17.5.> (18) (Open 17.5) (16-60) 5 Units
Minnesota returns a solid group of 13 and owned a 17pt defense last year. They were a plus 12 team and may have trouble on offense with a transfer QB from BC. Defensively it doesn't look like another 12th ranked 17 point defense, so if they are a plus team of 6 or more TY it will be all anyone could expect.
The schedule they had LY was brutal and they still manged to hold every opponent to 27 pts or less except IOWA. They also were only out-gained by 19 total yeads vs 7 bowlers!
Buffalo. They return a large group of 16 w/QB with a Plus 3 team. The defense should post some better numbers from the 26pts/gm they allowed LY - but it wont be against better teams.
As decent as they were on defense last year overall, they had four losses and were blown out. by allowing an average of 44 points per game.
Minn should have a good day in week one against this group.
WISC Now 17.5 (18) Open -17.5) 5 units
Badgers were dead even last year scoring, allowing 23 pts per game. They return 14 starters w/QB and knowing that they faced the last 7 games vs Bowlers (three ranked in top 5) and still managed to not get outscored for the year - puts them up a notch on opening day VS Maimi. Oh. If the Bowlers game points Wisconsin allowed were tallied, you would see they gave up and avg of 39 pts. Playing Mia, O in week one(1) should not be close.
Miami, OH
By far the worst team with only 1 returning legitiment starter (Transfer QB-Finn from Baylor) on offense from last year with only 5 on defense.
They pulled some transfers (14) but losing 16 from a year ago with a tteam that was an estblished winners in back-to-back seasons prior - will have a hard time getting to that level of talent from transfers.
They open with two impossible games and will be 0-2. Wisconsin and Rutgers.
NEB now -6.5 (open -7) (27-67) 5 units
Nebraska returns 15 starters w/QB and arrives with a bowl level squad for the first time in the L4 years. They were a plus 5 scoring team with better-than-most defense, which allowed only 19 pts per game.
Opening on the road vs Cincinnati in a neutral site game in KC Arrowhead stadium, should produce a completely focused SU win as they wont be facing much compeltition in the first 3 weeks until they face Michigan in week four(4).
Cincinnati returns a large group with 16 starters w/QB and nine of those are on defense. They return a larger group of "production" players and should be completive until they face ranked teams. They were outscored by bowl-level teams last year, that produced a losing season at 5-7. They still managed to end up even in points scored and allowed for the yar at 25 per game/ That gives them a good chance to become a positive scroing team with all the returning players. That makes for a good underdog getting points ATS.
Cincy was 0-5 SU and 0-5 TATS against Bowlers and winning record teams, to finish the season LY.
Friday
Georgia Tech -4.5 3 units
Colorado transfered Liberty conf player of the year QB Kaiden Salter to replace NFL drafted Sheddeur Sanders.
He wont be good enough. He has only a 56% completion rate LY. Its hard to replace a QB that was drafter the prior year.
GT returns 14 starters with the QB and will be solid this season.
Sam Houston +9.5 3 units.
Both teams bring less than 6 returing starters rom a year ago. Both were Bowlers last year. Both winners.
A near Home field game in Houston should perk up Sam Houston for this game. Take the points.
UNLV returns only 5 sstarters.
With one game played already by Sam Houston, they should improve from last weeks loss.
San Jose State -13.5 3 units
SJSU returns a solid grpoup with 13 starters with starting QB.
C.Mich returns a negative scoring team with a defense that allowed 40 pts/game on the road.
Saturday. Big Games Day.
NOON:
Tennessee -14. over Syracuse. 10 units
Vols were a # 8 offfense and #3 defense last year. No way for Cuse to stay in this with only 10 total starters back/
They pulled in LSU backup QB Rickie Collins, but facing Tenn will prove impossible with that defense in which 8 starters return..
Tennesse was a PLUS 20 scoring team LY and that includes beating Florida and Alabam by holding both teams to 17 points each. Cuse will never score much on this group.
OHIO State ML -120. 10 units
Public is on Texas and will put Arch Manning up against the toughest team he will face all year in the Shoe. This is the revenge game of the year without a doubt . But Ewing was an outstanding QB in the Bowl playoff game vs OSU and Manning isnt at that level.
Texas does have a great defense with 7 starting players back but you need to score more than 24 points to beat OSU and they wont be quite as good as they were last year, allowing 15 pts per game. But they allowed OSU to roll up 370 yds in a neutral site game?
One issue will be that TEX lost all four statng offenseive linemen. That level of talent is hard to replace. The OSU pass rush wont be stopped..
The Buskeyes always re-load and thats what keeps them beating good teams.
In the last 2 seasons when Ohio State didnt return a starting QB, they still managed to average 31 and 46 points per game in those seasons. They always have a solid run game to play.
While Ohio State lost an NFL drafted QB in Will Howard, keep in mind he was a sixth round pick and not one of the top tier drafted. So the drop off may not be as sgnificant as many would expect - If at all.
Georgia -38 3 units
Marshall will have to wait until next game to score. This team returns only 4 starters. They lost 25 players and their head coach who went to MIssissippi State. This will be a learning curve for Marshall this year. Maybe a severe Dead Man curve, as they will likely struggle to make a .500 record.
The small bet is because Georgia may quit out of pity for this rebuilding team. Better nknown as the Back Door Cover.
Forida State +14 over Alabama. 3 units
FSU 1H +7. 3 units
FSU made out big in the transfer portal They also have 6 new coaches to bolster an offnese that now includes BC star QB Tommy Castellanos who massed 5100 yds with BC and UCF
The Tide struggled last year in road games on the season/ They managed 3pts at Oklahoma and only 13pts vs Michigan. That is nothing like what Saban was.
Clemson -3.5 over LSU. 5 units
Clemson rolled up 400 yds vs Texas LY and 24 points. The Texas defense only alowed 15 points avg on the season. LSU could never be compared with that.
Clemson returns 17 starters with the QB in a home game that likely to pull out a win here.
LSU' three (3) lowest scoring games last year were on the road against USC, A&M and Florida. Those games were 20, 16 and 13 pts.
Sunday
Notre Dame ML -130 over Mia Fla. 10 units
Number #1 Offense ayear ago was Miami Fla. But they never faced one opponent at the level of ND. Lots of transfers came to Mia in hopes of National Championship. In game one(1) on the season this will be the top team they play all year.
They stole Carson Beck from Georgia at QB, but if you dont play defense then you dont get the ball much.
The Caines bring back 8 starters on D' but they were a 25 pt defense which isnt good enough to stop a team like ND here.
Looking at the last 4 games both teams played out last year, ND was clearly playing far better competition.
Even with the number one(#1) offense last year, Mia lost 3 of the last 4 games including the loss to Iowa State in the Bowl game, 41-42.
MONDAY (Labor Day) Sept 1st. 6 units
NC +3.5.
Here we go! Its Billy-ball now at the college level. If he ends up doing what Nick Saban did, (Both coaches early days in Cleveland) this could be a tremendous team. The defensive Guru should put together a squad that may just end up with a top 25 defense. If that happens - then TCU is in trouble in the first game.
