G-Man's Bowls Dec 22-29.

Tuesday. 2pm
Toledo +11.5 over Lousiville. 10 units

Toledo has theh 7th best defense in all of college. They are the only team that compared defensively with the top 6 playoff teams on defense.
The Rockets (8-4), who have won four straight, ranked third nationally among Football Bowl Subdivision schools at the start of bowl season in allowing just 247.8 yards per game. The other teams in the top six made the College Football Playoffs.
Toledeo wasa plus 20 scroing team with a 12 pt defense. Something that Louisville never faced all year.

5PM
W, KY +1.5 over S.Miss. 10 units.
Both were favored in the last game. But W.KY faced the better team (JVS) than Troy, who was the S.Miss opponent..

9PM
Ohio +6.5 over UNLV. 10 units.
UNLV beat one team with a winning record at the time they played - this year that made the bowls. They won by 3 bur didnt cover the spread over Utah State. - who was terrible yesterday vs Wash St..
UNLV has the top QB in the Conference but faced more losers than winners. So I discount the numbers somewhat, because of that.
UNLV did beat Miami , ohio early in te year but Mia had 4 turnovers in a close game 41-38. and Mia was 0-2 at that point on the season.

Ohio faced Ohio State and held them to only 37 pts to vaildate their solid defense. They also played Miam, O and won 24-20. even though Ohio had two turnovers (who was much improved since playing UNLV and had a 5-3 record) in the win.
In comparison Ohio was more effective on defense than what UNLV was vs Mai, O.
Expect the same today.
 
Bowls 3-0 yesterday
Overall. 10-5. +3,850.00

Wednesday;
Christmas Eve. Merry Christmas to all.

Cal +1.5 over Hawaii. 5 units

One reason.
Sagapolutele, a Hawaii native, ranked among the top freshman quarterbacks in the nation in his first season at Cal. He has thrown for 3,117 yards and 17 touchdowns, becoming just the second quarterback in FBS history to start a college career with 12 straight 200-yard games.

Lupoi admitted his first goal at Cal was to keep Sagapolutele from following in the footsteps of Fernando Mendoza, who left Cal for Indiana after last season en route to winning the Heisman this year.

This year -the Cal QB room welcomed ex-Ohio State arm Devin Brown and FORMER Hawaiian gunslinger Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who tossed 46 TDs to 3 INTs last fall for Hawaii.

Source. Field level media - Marc
Lawrence pre-season Preview Guide.
 
Overall. 10-6. +3,300.00

Friday. 1PM
Nortwestern -9.5 (-129) DK. over Central Michigan. 6 units
This CM team is the worst team in the bowls when playing against bowlers. CM is a minus 27pts in scoring/gm. They also have the lowest offensive numbers of all bowlers averaging only 11 pts/game.
How did they get here? They faced 4 winning teams all year and 8 losers.
The only caution here is that they played to a 21-3 loss to Toledo. Which could give Northwestrn a run for the money if those two were matched up.
But facing common opponents Like Michigan, N'Western was competitive and lost 22-24 while CMU was not and lost 63-3.
NW also faced 7 winning Bowlers from the Big 10, so its not like they can't compete. They still managed ro make a bowl game.

4:30
New Mexico + 2.5 (-124) DK over Minnesota. 6 units
The only game where Minnesota scored more than 23 points, was against Northwestern (See Above writeup) in the last month. They lost to Northwestern 35-38.

Minnesota is also a negative minus -18pts team vs Bowlers. Only averaging 15pts/gm on offense while allowing 33 on defense.
NM held 5 of the last 6 opponets to under 22pts and also faced 5 bowlers on the season but out-scored 3 of them .Only Boise and Michigan beat NM.
To put it in perspective - last year Mnneosta was only a minus -2 team in scoring vs bowlers (21-23). This is a far different team this year.

UTSA -4.5. (-126( DK over FIU 2 units
FIU under 60. 2 units
The FIU team was solid against 2 bowlers beating J'Ville St and Kennesaw St.
Also FIU improved in the last 4 gamas going 4-0 SU to make a bowl.
UTSA has the better team but defensively neither team is any good and are allowing over 30pts /game.
 
Saturday
Cold weather in MD 38d.
Pitt -13 over East Carolina. 5 units

Penn St35 over Clemson. 10 units
Tigers were 1-2 TY vs bowlers. Only beat ouisville. by 1 pt.
Penn state defesnse 22pts vs bowlers, is far better than Clemson.

Army -8.5 over Conn. 5 units
Transfer portal for Conn is startting a 4th string QB.

BYU -3.5 over GT. 5 units
BYU beat Utah and Arizona . GT isnt as good as those teams.

Miami, O +5.5 over Fresno State. 5 units

North Texas -7 over SD State 6 units

Virginia +4.5 over Missouri. 10 units
Missouri was 1-5 SU vs bowlers while Virgnia was 5-2.

LSU +1 pver Houston 4 units
 
Georgia Southern -10 over Appy state. 4 units

Line went from -2 to -10.
No startting QB's fpr Appy state. Transfers.
The Actual opening line originated from the earlier game where GA won 25-23 as a 5 pt under dog @ Appy on Nov 6th.
GA can run and pass.
Appy state relied solely on the passing game. They run for inder 100 yds /game/
Unless Appy State surprises and starts one of the 2 QB's who are in trabsfer portal, then this should be a one side scoring day for GA/
Watch at game time ro see who starts for Appy. If its not Kolb or Swann then Ga is the play.
 
G-Man said:
Georgia Southern -10 over Appy state. 4 units

Line went from -2 to -10.
No startting QB's fpr Appy state. Transfers.
The Actual opening line originated from the earlier game where GA won 25-23 as a 5 pt under dog @ Appy on Nov 6th.
GA can run and pass.
Appy state relied solely on the passing game. They run for inder 100 yds /game/
Unless Appy State surprises and starts one of the 2 QB's who are in trabsfer portal, then this should be a one side scoring day for GA/
Watch at game time ro see who starts for Appy. If its not Kolb or Swann then Ga is the play.
Click to expand...
It should also be noted that GS was up 19-3 halftime against App State.
 
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