***G-Man's Bowl Games Week Three (3)***

[G-Man]

Bowls To date.
14-13 +690.00.

Monday. 2:30PM

Missouri -ML -135. over Iowa. 6 units
Just one year ago these same 17 Iowa starters were shut out against Tennessee 35-0. in the Bowls. They are 2.5 pt under dogs now against Missouri.
The Tigers return 14 starters with the QB. This is a big percentage of starters that BEAT Ohio State 14-3 last year.
I dont think Iowa has any where near the level of offense they need to compete with Missouri.
This year they did improve on offense with 28 pts /gm and 17 on defense on the season , But only 22-19 vs bowlers.

The Tigers lost to only three top level offenses - TexasA&M , Alabama and South Carolina. All far better than Iowa.
Iowa also only faced 4 teams all year with a winning record. Five (5) bowlers in all. Iowa was 3-2 vs Bowlers SU.
The only ranked teams were Iowa State and Ohio State, both losses.

Missouri played Eight (8) Bowlers (7 Winners) and went -5-3 SU. They out yarded those 8 teams by 4 yds per game.
In the 5 games Iowa played (4winners) - Iowa was out yarded by 86 yds per game.
Iowa starting QB was injured back on Nov.11th.
He is starting. BUT -- He was Not the opening day starter as
Quote:' "The Hawkeyes (8-4) got quarterback Brendan Sullivan back from injury for their Music City Bowl matchup with No. 19 Missouri (9-3) on Monday in Nashville, Tenn.

Sullivan hasn't played since he suffered a sprained ankle on Nov. 8 in a 20-17 loss to UCLA.

"He feels fully confident," Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. "The injury is in the history now, it's passed. Just getting caught up because he missed a couple weeks there. This has been a good period where he's getting some work."

Sullivan, who became starter after "Cade McNamara" suffered a concussion against Northwestern, has completed 24 of 35 passes for 344 yards and two touchdowns. >>> McNamara has opted out for transfer."

Those games Sullivan started were against non-bowlers Wisconsin and UCLA.
Iowa won 13-10 vs Neb in the last game of the season, but Neb had two turnovers and Iowa was out gained in that game by 170 yds!

Thats my story and Im sticking to it!
BOL

 

[WannaBcappeR]

Keep crushing it GMan , appreciate your posts as there's been multiple times you're on the opposite side of the majority here and it's great to get a different perspective. Followed you on a few of those winners as well. Cheers to a prosperous 2025!

 

[Gamlin1]

Great work G-Man. Have a safe and Happy New Years!!!

 

[G-Man]

Tuesday
NOON

Michigan+16.5 over Alabama.. 2 units
UNDER 46. 2 units
The Wolverines season record isn't impressive but they won against decent teams to get here. Ohio State, USC and Minnesota.
Mich also held the last 3 opponents to under 300 total yards each. Two were road games.

Bama just became a team that struggled in road games - beating only Wisconsin and LSU, While Losing to Oklahoma, Tennessee and Vanderbilt..

Michigan lost to. Texas, Oregon, Illinois and Indiana.

Michigan was also low scoring in road games putting up 13 @ohio State, 15@Indiana, 7@ Illinois and the season high 17 @ Washington. You read it right! Michigan played only FOUR road games all year!

In three games with Big 10 schools this year, the average win margin with the SEC winning all 3, was 24 points.
Michigan never scored over 15 pts vs any team with a defense that allowed 22 points or less.
If they hold Bama to 26 or less and score at least 14 pts, both the side and total win ATS.
The Portal system has claimed many players from both sides.
That why the units are low on this game.

2PM
Washington+1 Over Louisville. 3 units
Cardinals have no QB or Top WR. . Offense will be completely less productive.
Looking at how Washington played Oregon to the finish the season gives them a chance to score here and play some defense.
Both Louisville and Washington had horrible defenses vs bowlers.. Turnovers decide this one, is my best gusess.


3PM
South Carolina -8.5 over Illinois. 10 units
Up and coming Gamecocks won their last 6 games to finish the season. All 6 wins were dominating as they allowed only one team to score over 20 points!

3:30PM
LSU +3.5 over Baylor. 5 units
The Bears won their last two games on opponent turnovers. Collecting 7 in the two games.
Baylor lost all three games vs ranked teams this year.

LSU played far better teams overall. Nine (9) games were against winning record teams including Ole Miss, S,Carolina and Alabama. LSU went 2-1 vs them.

7:30PM
Penn State -11 over Boise. 6 units
.Massive advantage here for the PSU defense. They held 3 of 4 top ranked bowlers to 20 points or less. Only Oregon scored more. PSU was crushed by Oregon 45-37.
Speaking of Oregon, they also played Boise in week two and Boisie gave them all they could handle in a 37-34 Oregon win.
Big fact is that Boise played only two ranked teams all year - Oregon and UNLV.

PSU will be able to shut down the Boise run game with the nations #6 defense.- far better than what Oregon has.
PSU out gained all bowlers by an average of 106 yds per game.
The Lions scored 34 while allowing only 15 points per game all year.

More Wednesday.

 

[G-Man]

WEDNESDAY Jan 1st. (Happy New Year!)
1PM
Arizona State +13 over Texas. 10 units
ASU 1H. +7. even. 3 units
ASU UNDER 52 3 units.
ASU has one of the better passing defenses as they have allowed only 16 passing Td's while picking up 15 interceptions.

They are far better vs bowlers than Texas is with pts for and against. They played only 2 ranked Bowlers but won both.
They outscored all bowlers (5) by 7 pts per game.

Texas only out scored the last six bowlers (6) by 4 points per game (23-19). But its important to note that Texas played 10 winning teams.
ASU only played Five winning teams..

In ASU last 4 games they allowed 23pts once and under 19 on the other three.
The defensive passer rating is very good at 117.0, one of the best of all playoff teams.

ASU could win this SU. Lean the ML+390.

5PM
Ohio State ML- 135 over Oregon. 10 units.
Hard to beat the same team twice in the season.
Just ask Alabama a few years ago (2021) when they beat Georgia in the conference championship but got smashed in the National Championship game.
Both times Georgia was favored. Game one was Georgia -6. game two Georgia -3.
Same scenario today.
tOSU was a 3 pt favorite in Oregon and now is a 1 point favorite today.
Ohio State out gained seven (7) bowlers by an average of 145 yds per game.
Oregon out gained Six (6) bowlers by 45 yds per game.

Last fact: The first game the Buckeys out gained Oregon on their home field by 30 yards.
This game is a neutral site game. -Advantage - Ohio State.
After seeing what PSU did to Boise yesterday, its fair to say that the Oregon/Boise game was a bit more revealing about how good Oregon really is or Isn't?


Back for the late game.

 

[G-Man]

THURSDAY Jan 2nd.
4PM
Georgia +1 over Notre Dame. 6 units.
If you're looking for a comparison game - the Boise/Penn State game mirrors this game.
Notre Dame and Boise both have a 6.2 yds per rush average.
Notre Dame vs bowlers has a small total yds per game advantage of 38 yds per game.
Their strength is the run game.

Penn State shut down the Boise run game and Boise lost.

Georgia also has a dominating run defense that allows only 3.8 yds per rush and thats a solid number considering that Georgia played many ranked teams and bowlers with winning reords.
Something that ND didn't face much in regards to ranked teams. Only Indiana #9 and Army#19 are ranked.

Georgia faced #11 Alabama, #16 Ole Miss, #4 Texas (Twice), #7 Tennessee.
Considering the stats from those games, they are much more indicative of the teams true potential.
I can't see ND beating any of those teams.

While Beck is out for Georgia, it may be a good thing.
He struggled often during the season. His ratings fell from the prior two seasons. He was also only hitting at 64% this year while the two prior seasons he was at 72 and 74%.

Stockton is good in completed pass percentage at 78%. He doesn't have much in terms of yards, but he was good in the OT win over Texas 0 who is much better than Notre Dame...

Based on the schedule of opponent competition - I think Notre Dame is here only because they faced weaker teams.
This is another example of team with soft schedules and winning 12 games having been falsely ranked at #3 - because the ranking system is geared for wins - not stats vs quality of opponents.
Believe it or not, ND was out gained by USC in the last week of the regular season and allowed a season high 557 yards!
Last week they beat Indiana at Notre Dame in the weather - but this game is a road game in a Dome. I wouldn't put much emphasis on the win over Indiana last week. Indiana played one ranked team before that - Ohio State.

I based the 6 units on the fact that Georgia is starting a backup QB. Other wise it would be a 10 unit play.

7:30PM
Ole Miss,-17 over Duke. 5 units
One glaring fact is that Duke was a 21 dog to Miami, Florida.
Now they are a 17 point dog to a better team than what Miami was.

Duke is facing Top NFL QB prospect Jaxson Dart for Ole Miss..
Dart will likely be without his top WR in Harris.

Duke is starting a backup QB and a few other players have entered the portal system.

Ole Miss sand-bagged in the last regular season game wining 26-14 with a -26 line against a 2-10 Miss State team.
Since this is a final game for both teams - Im looking for Ole Miss to set some scoring milestones.

 

[gamer]

Just keep doing what you're doing. Good summaries and theses behind your leans. You don't need to be responding like you're conducting an AMA like that weirdo on the other forum wants.

 

[G-Man]

4PM
North Texas +14 over Texas State. 4 units
NT p[layed three bowlers that are all better than Texas State. The scoring difference were close or held the opponent ti lowers scoring than season averages were.
Memphis, Tulane and Army were all ranked when NT played them.

Texas State played one ranked team which was Arizona State.
Both teams played one common opponent which was South Alabama. NT won 52-38 - while Tex ST, won 45-38.

7:30PM
Virginia Tech +10 over Minnesota. 4 units.
A difference of 1 win separated these two in season records.
VT faced three winning bowlers in the last 4 games of the season. Syracuse, Clemson and Duke. All of them had more wins than Missisota.
Minny is also giving VT more points in this game than all three of the other teams gave VT.
Look for a close game..
One common opponent was Rutgers. Rutgers beat both VT and Minny. But VT was closer.

 

[G-Man]

Saturday
Liberty +4 over Buffalo. 5 units.
Liberty lost their starting QB to transfer, but he wasn't NFL grade material.
Buffalo- when losing- scores less than 17 points per game. They WERE the Dog to open. This line crossed over because of the liberty QB leaving. \
Also Buffalo was a MINUS 16 pts per game in scoring against bowlers.

 

[G-Man]

Missed out on the Start time. Sorry. Just bet it live Plus 12.5