***G-Man's Bowl Games Dec 16-20***

G-Man

G-Man

Pretty much a regular
Tuesday.
J'Vill St. +1 over Troy. 6 units
One year ago JVS had the dominating run game. It was thought that since losing 8 players on offense coming into this year, that the run game would vanish. Instead - it prospered again with a dominationg avg/carry of 5.53 and good enough to run up 3,354 rushing yds on the season. These numbers are superior to what Troy can bring to this game.
Troy only avg 2.79 yds.carry and they rely on the pasing game which isnt dominate - as ther offense is just average overall. They also lack stopping the run by allowing 4.70 yds/rush.
In addition - Troy is minus in first downs vs opponents. That means they wont get the ball, when the opponent is running wild.
In total offense per play - Troy is also negative with 4.73 to opponents with 5.69.



Wednesday
Old Dominion +3.5 (-120_ over South Florida. 6 units (Game is in Orlando).
O D was crushed by one team all year. James Madison -63-27.
T hey also were beat by Marshall but the yardage was even. Old D lost that game on 5 turnovers.
USF allowed over 40pts/game vs winners this year.
OD has the better defense vs Bowlers and during the regular season.
New HC for USF also gives the advantage to Old D.
With both startting QB's out (transfers)- this one goes to the better defense.
IN the last 5 games Old Dom never allowed over 21 points.
Team scoring last 2 yrs
OD LY36-26. TY 29-26
Team scoring last 2 yrs
USF LY 26-28. TY24-24.

Delaware +3 over Lousiiana. 5 units
Delaware has the superior QB, No.#1 in cnference USA with 302.2 yds /game passing.
Delaware faced 6 bowlers this year and was only outscored by 5pts/game average.
They also played close games by only being outgained by an average of only 10 total yardsper game.
ULL has negative yrds passing vs opponets and also negative yds rushing. Facing the better QB should trouble for ULL tonight.

Back thursday
 
Bowls this week 3-0.
Bowls overll 3-1.

Thursday.
Missouri St. +1.5 over Arky state. 4 units
Arky state faced negative scoring bowlers last 2of3 games and still lost. Only win by 1 pt over negative scorung Appt st. was narrow and in the last 4 games Arky st is losing the turnover battle.
Arky is also minus in total yds and rushing yds vs bowlers.
looking at ONE huge loss for Missouri state to USC by a whopping 73-13 score - actually faulted their numbers badly. They were competitive in other games vs bowlers.
Both teams played Kennesaw state and lost.
But in the Missouri state game the yardage was imperessive because they managed 504 yds @ Kenne and lost on a late TD with 27 secomds on the clock.




Friday
Western Mich -3 over Kennesaw state 4 units
Impressive games with Jville State leads to this play with W. Mich. But I dont think that JVS could beat WM.
Kenne beat J'ville in conference playoff game after losing to JVS 1 month earlier in the season.
Most important was that in the first game, Kenne had 4 huge turnovers in the loss 35-26. But they actually oputgained JVS by 130 yds.
In the rematch last week both teams played defense and yards were at season lows in a 19-15 gam,e.
WMich had a similar situation as well losing to Miami Oh earlier in the season then beating Mia, O in their playoff game last week.
The major advantage with these two teams is the W.Mich defense. Its allowing only18pts/gm during the season. a full td less than Kenne and far better than what JVS had this season.
I think that Kenne will have a season low in scoing much like the 19-16 game, with JVS last week.

NC State -3 (-120) over Memphis. 5 units
Sixteen (16 ) starrters back with he QB is the main difference here for N.C.State. They were beat by East Carolina last year in a bowl game. Returning a good group with experience is that cosistencey should prevail IMO this year. N.C. State returned the favor in game one this year by beating E. Carolina.

Memphis lost SU to 17th ramked Tulane and to22 ranked Navy.
N.C. State faced @10 Miami, #9 Notre Dame, #20 Virginia and #24 GT. I dont belive that Memphis is as good as GT or Virginia. N.C State beat both.


Oklahoma PK -110. over Alabama. 10 units.
Tide isnt a good road team. Lost 2 of 3 season losses on the road. Second straight year with more than 2 total losses on the season. Pay atention to what the two Georgia games were like. Bama beat them early in the season and Georgia wasnt operating well at all. Next game for Conference Champ and Georgia kicked their ass. What did Georgia do? The held Bama to a season low of only 209 total yards. That Conf Championship game probably exposed how weak Bama realy is.
They out gained Oklahoma last game, but Sooners still won in Alabama. Bama had three turnovers in that loss and held Sooners to a SEASON LOW of only 212 yds!
But traveling to Norman Oklahoma should put the Sooners back at full strength in this CFP game.
Line last game was Bama favored by -6.5. To make Oklahoma the dog at home indicates that the public is alll over Bama in a huge revenge game.

Points scored show me a different outcome. Regular season numbers show Bama as a 31pt offense and a 17pt defense. But when playing Bowlers they drop radically down to only 24points per game. Not a strong number for a road team vs higher ranked opponent.
My thoughts are that the Sooners played their worst game of the season at Bama last time and they can only be better the next time.
Meanwhile Bama being less effective in road games, gives all the advantage to the Sooners.
Hello Nick Saben! Please come back!

Back Saturday
 
Hey Sooners...You gotta play the whole game!

Saturday
12 NOON
Miami +3.5 (-125) over Tex A&M. 5 ints
Both played Notre Dame Both won, but Miam played better defense than what A&M played.
Miam holds a 6 pt defensive edge vs Bowlers over A&M. Im on the Dog today.
3:30
Ole Miss -17 over Tulane. 5 units
Green Wave in road games and vs bowlers drop badly on defense. The last tie these two played was back on Sept 20th and Ole miss out gained Tulane by 250 yds. Theyaalso won 45-10.
More important is the dact that Miss held Tulane to one FG through the game untill there was 3.42 on the clock in the 4th qtr. wha Tulane scored their only TD.
Tulane QB Retzlaff was held to 58 passing yds.
Wha different today? The run game has improved for Green. But not likly against Miss.




7:30PM
Oregon -20.5 (BM) over James Madison. 7 units
They (JMU)were a 15pt dog at Louisville in the 2nd game of the season. They lost 28-14. The QB was Barrett. He started all the games this season. His QB rate was only 107.0 vs the Cardunals.. Now he's facing the only ranked team he faced in 2 years and is only a 21 pt. dog.
So, it appears that odds makers have so much play on JM from the public that they saying the Lousiville is almost as good as Oregon? My guess would be that if Oregon played louisville the Ducks would be favored by at least 17 pts.
The opening line of Ducks -21 has been not been bet down? Odds makers have the public heavy on the dogs today. All three of tem .
Louisville was a 8-4team with a plus scoring avg of only 9 pts who only played one other ranked team -Virginia - and they lost.
Oregon is a battle tested team who faced #1 Indiana and USC ranked #16th.
USC was a plus 14 scoring team while Indiana was a plus 31 scoring team.
James madison will be up against one of the best defenses of all the bowlers vs the pass. They held all opponents to only 144 on the season and 177 vs bowlers.
My point here is that Louisville held JM to only 134 tds passing. Louisville passing defense allowed 191 yds passing and was wrose ve bowlers. But they shut down JM to a season low until the Troy game.
The run is the strenght of JM but when facing better teams that vanished as well. Wash State held them to 174, L'ville to 126. and total yards were both season low for JM.
Oregon is far better than anyone JM has faced. Ducks wont let up. No back doors today.
 
Bowl. Dec 13. Boise L-. -440
Week 1 DEc 16-20. .Bowls -7-3
Overall. 7-4. +850.00

W+3600
L-2750
+850.00
 
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