Friday's CFB... a BIG bet and clock discussion!

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Hi guys. Ended up 1-2 last night.

Yes, the totals all flew over. It didn't appear as though last night's games had any adverse effects of the rules changes (that's for you cash)...

The main rule change that set off alarms and bells in my head and that the TV guys are not talking about hardly at all is the restarting of the clock on all plays that go out-of-bounds. The main difference between college and the Niffel all these years is that in college the clock ALWAYS STOPPED and STAYED STOPPED TIL THE NEXT SNAP on all plays that went out of bounds. Now, they stop it to spot the ball, then re-start it before the next play. As much as 25-30 seconds could run off. That's where I see the game being shortened by as much as 8-10 percent.

I also (and always) welcome thoughts on this subject in this thread.

Onto my biggest bet of the weekend:

Temple totally thrashed Army last year. They lost it on the scoreboard, 37-21. I have had this game circled for a long time. I laid 3 when this line first came out at CRIS last month and got some more 6.5 at -107 the other day. Would recommend laying the 7 as well. The Owls outgained Army 463-330 and had 25 first downs to 14 - but the defense only gave up 16 points. Army had two special teams scores and a defensive touchdown. Temple welcomes a wealth of talent back, as 21 of 22 starters, 53 lettermen and 47 playerswho saw playing time as freshmen and sophomores are back for Al Golden. The Owls finished 4-3 in their last seven and led the MAC in total defense...

Army returns little and are changing their offense. I'm willing to bet that they will struggle mightily to score more than one touchdown tonight.

Prediction: Temple 37, Army 10
The play: Temple -3, -6.5 (-107) for a big bet.

No opinion SMU/Rice. How can June Jones take out one of the most productive QBs of the last two years, a potential Niffel player, and throw him on the bench and as the third-stringer?

Talk about building from scratch....

GL!

:cheers:
 
damn it Rexy, I was going to lay off tonight, but since you like this I may tail gun it!!!

Good luck, buddy!
 
Looks good to me. Think Temple wins by 3 scores.

Got them -1 for back end of teaser, and -6.5 -120
 
This is what I was looking for. Worried about Temple being "Temple", even though I think they go bowling this year (or at least eligible. Temple and Buffalo bowl eligible in the same year? Good God!)

But hadn't looked in to the details of this game. Love that 3 TDs for Army aren't likely to be repeated and that Temple got better last year as the season progressed.
 
Temple laying points on the road always has to be a concern. BUt I like this coach a lot and he's got things headed in the right direction...

Counselor, that shit is hilarious.

Go ahead and bet it. You can't mush me...
 
like temple as well.

Some stats from last night in regards to the clock rule changes rex.

Here are the total number of combined pass attempts and rush attempts of the 6 key games last night. Then i list the average number of pass and rush attempts each team had in their games last year.

wake/baylor game 144 attempts
wake games last year 145 attempts
baylor games last year 148 attempts

ncst/scar game 126 attempts
scarolina games last year 142 attempts
ncst games last year 148 attempts

utep/buffalo game 129 attempts
utep games last year 153 attempts
buffalo games last year 141 attempts

vandy/miamioh game 133 attempts
miamioh games last year 143 attempts
vandy games last year 135 attempts

beavers/stanford game 147 attempts
beavers games last year 144 attempts
stanford games last year 147 attempts

troy/mtsu game 148 attempts
troy games last year 153 attempts
mtsu games last year 138 attempts
 
nice rex, I like temple as well tonight however i dont think i am going to play on them just becuase i had them last year...:hang:


Good luck Rex!
 
As my godfather, Larry Hunter says:

Good, better, best. Never let em rest. When the good get better, the better get best.
 
Question for you Rex, this game has been on my radar for a while now as well, but ive had to wait for my bookie to get this game and its been at 7 for a while.

Do you think this line will move before gametime? If yes, should I wait for 6.5 or lock it in before 7.5?
 
Not pertaining to lines/spreads...but I already hate that clock rule. Theres a reason that CFB is superior to NFL...and hat used to be one of the main reasons why....I cringed each time I saw it last night...
 
BAR - See my post in the thread over the summer about rules changes on page 1 - I said the same exact thing. Check out the disparity in the UTEP/UB and NCST/USC games on plays and tell me it doesn't matter.

Metsrp - Wiseguy money might well come on the dog but I suspect there will be enough public people backing Temple that it will close 7.5 or 8. But who knows...
 
The horsecollar and facemask rules are strange....too much variance between officials..

It will be an issue in a big game...mark it down..

Did he immediately pull him down by the shoulders or not?

Did he grasp it or not?
 
Interesting scout article today Rexy:


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]Clock Rules Could Bring Boost To Offenses [/FONT]<HR width="100%" SIZE=1></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]Matthew Hager[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]BuckeyeSports.com[/FONT]
</TD><TD align=right>[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]Aug 28, 2008[/FONT]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2>
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Ohio State is one of many schools that tried to use part of the preseason getting used to the NCAA's new play clock. Find out how the Buckeyes, as well as other players and coaches, feel about the new 40-second clock.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]No-huddle spread offenses have had a lot of success in recent years and changes to the play clock this season are likely to only help those offenses even more. However, all offenses could benefit from the new rules. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]The NCAA Football Rules Committee voted in February to adopt a play clock similar to what the NFL uses. While before offenses had a 25-second play clock that did not start until officials marked the ball ready for play, teams will now use a 40-second clock that will begin as soon as the previous play is blown dead. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]The rule change pleased many coaches who felt that there was too much of a difference between when some crews would start the play clock compared to others. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]“The single biggest complaint that coaches have had over the years, and I’ve been one of them, is that you’ll get a crew that will be a quick-whistle crew versus a slow-whistle crew,” said Purdue head coach Joe Tiller July 25 at the Big Ten Media Days in Chicago. “You never know until you’re in the midst of a game what tempo you’re playing to. I think the clock will even all that out. Every crew will work at the same tempo, which I think is a plus.” [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]The 25-second play clock will not be going away entirely. It will still be used on the first play following a change of a change of possession, as well as after timeouts, measurements and penalties. Even so, many Big Ten players and coaches fell that the change will help no-huddle and spread offenses keep defenses off balance. Several spread offenses call plays at the line of scrimmage and could take advantage of the quicker pace, limiting substitution opportunities for defenses. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]“It used to be they’d run out certain personnel grouping on the field and then you’d counter it,” Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Heacock said. “You always had time. I think offenses are dictating the tempo of the game and the offense is interested in speeding it up. As that happens you have less time on defense and you don’t have a great deal of time to shuffle people in and out. You better play what you’ve got on the field.” [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Ohio State used training camp as a way to get acclimated to the clock changes. Quarterback Todd Boeckman said the Buckeyes tried to pick up the pace during practices as a way to get ready for the season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]“We really speeded things up a little bit,” Boeckman said. “The play clock is going to be 40 seconds and all of practice we were using a 35-second clock just so we kind of had that hurry-up mentality.” [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]The Buckeyes were not alone in working with a faster pace during the preseason, either. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]“We had referees come to practice and it could catch people off guard this fall,” Michigan State quarterback Brian Hoyer said in Chicago. “You have to get used to it. Obviously it will speed the game up, but it might take a few games to get used to it.” [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]Football Bowl Subdivision – Division I-A – games averaged 3 hours, 23 minutes in 2007. That was an increase from 2006 when games averaged 3:07. The desire to shorten the length of games is one reason the NCAA decided to change the play clock. “Now by rule (time between plays) has to be consistent, and guys I know who have used it in the NFL have liked it,” Indiana head coach Bill Lynch said. "I think it will be a positive." The NCAA also made other timing changes for this season. The game clock will only stop until the ball is set on plays that go out of bounds, like on first downs. The clock will remained stopped as usual in the last two minutes of a half. Big Ten coordinator of football officials Dave Perry said the changes had been discussed for six to eight years before being adopted in 2007 and put into effect this year.[/FONT]


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Rex I'm seriously debating Temple as well. . . I just can't stop saying to myself "you're going to lay 7 with Temple on the road?"

I think I'm going to need a couple more drinks, but I'll get on it eventually I'm sure.

GL to us:cheers:
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Temple laying points on the road always has to be a concern. BUt I like this coach a lot and he's got things headed in the right direction...

Counselor, that shit is hilarious.

Go ahead and bet it. You can't mush me...
Click to expand...

Oh, Rex. Poor, poor, unwitting, Rex, so oblivious to my mushiness...

Just to prove my point...Temple -7 -120

I apologize in advance, sir. You are still one of my ATF's...

Well wishes,

Counselor
 
:cheers:

THanks for the Temple insight. I didn't realize how BRUTAL Army was going to be either. That Temple defense might make for some interesting unders come MAC season.
 
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