Friday why do i even try unders Discussion

[Play2win]

• Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

 

[tuck321]

Not seeing that mean anything regarding this Team but not sure what to do anyway. Ventura very bad this season on 5 but before very good.

 

[austinhous]

ST LOUIS is 21-4 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.

Last night I was 100% sure someone would post this today. I knew we would be reading this. Actually, if you just say "since the 2013 season" you get 20-4 SU which is what I went with, and in 2013 alone they went 13-0 in that situation. You can chalk up those wins to pitching, an opponent average of 2.1 runs per game, and it's understandable when you look to see who started those 24 games:

[TABLE="width: 617"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]games[/TD]
[TD]W - L (marg, %win)[/TD]
[TD]Avg Line[/TD]
[TD]o:Avg Line[/TD]
[TD]$ On[/TD]
[TD]$ Against[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]5-1 (3.00, 83.3%)[/TD]
[TD]-154.7[/TD]
[TD]142.5[/TD]
[TD]+$350[/TD]
[TD]-$360[/TD]
[TD]Lance Lynn[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]5-1 (2.17, 83.3%)[/TD]
[TD]-166.3[/TD]
[TD]152.2[/TD]
[TD]+$355[/TD]
[TD]-$365[/TD]
[TD]Shelby Miller[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]4-1 (2.00, 80.0%)[/TD]
[TD]-189.6[/TD]
[TD]170.6[/TD]
[TD]+$250[/TD]
[TD]-$260[/TD]
[TD]Adam Wainwright[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2-1 (-0.33, 66.7%)[/TD]
[TD]-113.3[/TD]
[TD]103.3[/TD]
[TD]+$65[/TD]
[TD]-$90[/TD]
[TD]Joe Kelly[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2-0 (2.50, 100.0%)[/TD]
[TD]-110.0[/TD]
[TD]-100.0[/TD]
[TD]+$200[/TD]
[TD]-$210[/TD]
[TD]John Lackey[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2-0 (5.50, 100.0%)[/TD]
[TD]-141.5[/TD]
[TD]121.5[/TD]
[TD]+$217[/TD]
[TD]-$227[/TD]
[TD]Michael Wacha[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)[/TD]
[TD]-120.0[/TD]
[TD]110.0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]Jaime Garcia[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

When you break it down you'll see that it's Garcia's first start in that situation. And if you look at who Garcia has faced this so far this year you get the Mets, D-Backs, Brewers, and Dodgers - none of whom have done much versus LHP this season. I'm backing KC tonight since they do better versus LHP, plus I found some stuff I liked about Ventura in this situation. A quick look at Yordano and you see that it's the more rest the better, and he was not on his best rest the last time he faced the Cards.

The Royals are 6-0 SU in Yordano's starts when he is coming off an outing in which he lasted fewer than 5.0 innings. He allowed 10 runs (9ER) in 42.2 innings pitched in those six starts (1.90 ERA). Also, the last two times Yordano was pitching on 5 days rest after allowing > 2 runs in his previous start he shut out both the Yankees and the Reds. And since last season, not counting October, KC is 20-7 SU versus the NL (9-3 SU away). They're also 9-4 SU in Ventura's starts lined at plus-money.

 

[Play2win]

Ventura hasn't been very good, already allowed 4 to Stl this season, a few starts back. Garcia record misleading, he's been good but unlucky not picking up wins after giving up 1 ER and 2 ER, KC minus a bat

 

[austinhous]

Cards 10-16 SU home versus the AL the last three seasons.

 

[Play2win]

Kc 3-7 L10 Ventura is a concern, should be a good game

 

[barmeezee]

orioles game total bouncing on and off the number at open (8)

 

[Inspekdah]

Some Sox bats with solid numbers vs Hutch, both teams should do enough scoring

Tailed on this.

Nice 1st inning from your Sox.

 

[austinhous]

Brewers 3-24 SU when they don't hit a home run.
Brewers 20-14 SU when they hit at least one home run.

 

[austinhous]

I think Hector might be due for some regression between his ERA and xFIP. And the Angels tend to score a lot of runs in their first game back from the east coast. I like the over. Ted the ump is coming off two consecutive unders and hasn't gone three consecutive games to the under this season. That's my first glance case for the over..

 

[nbafan88]

Great call on the over in Boston

 

[nbafan88]

yankee bullpen is gonna be getting lots of work today.... could get really ugly

michael kay just said pineda's control is not there today and many pitchers say that can happen when you get extra days rest

 

[RetroVK]

Brewers 3-24 SU when they don't hit a home run.
Brewers 20-14 SU when they hit at least one home run.

What a great stat. Thanks for posting it

 

[nbafan88]

Felix just gave up 8 runs in a 3rd of an inning

 

[austinhous]

can someone post some hot/cold team trends?

In the L3 games the Giants rank 3rd in OBP at 0.368 and 5th in slugging at 0.514. https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stats/

 

[Play2win]

SD playing pretty good ball lately, Upton back and nice come from behind win in latest at Atl is momentum to build off. I love pitchers in a routine and Despaigne is a prime example, when in a routine which hasn't been very often this season he has been much better and it shows as SD is 5-0 in his last 5 on 4 days rest, also very good at home and SD is 6-2 in his L8 home starts. We all know Kershaw capable of shutting down any lineup sans Stl anytime, anyplace. .but LAD only 2-5 L7 Kershaw road starts, LAD 2-5 L7 off a win, LAD 3-7 L10 road.

LA DODGERS are 0-9 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

 

[nbafan88]

yanks bullpen is gonna have muchas problemas this weekend

 

[nbafan88]

I think Hector might be due for some regression between his ERA and xFIP. And the Angels tend to score a lot of runs in their firstgame back from the east coast. I like the over. Ted the ump is coming off two consecutive unders and hasn't gone three consecutive games to the under this season. That's my first glance case for the over..

on the over 7.5 :cheers3::shake:

 

[austinhous]

:cheers3: