Friday we got the bad edwin jackson ayer Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
played BOS +152

leans from the BOL open:
CIN u7.5
CHW +167
TB +115
BAL +103
HOU +185

on the radar:
WAS u7
SD +111
NYM u7
 
going to Tribe game, hoping for over ump. really hoping it's not Gerry Davis. i hate having total when he's behind plate (so inconsistent), would likely pass. Astros are obviously the side, but i'm not one to fade the home team, and -200ish on Carlos Carrasco is the funniest thing i've seen since Johnny Manziel flashing his QB rating at the Redskins bench.

according to my notes, potential umps include Meals, Davis, Hamari, Davidson, Muchlinski, Estabrook (?), Miller. won't be Meals (just worked series in Bronx), Hamari (was in Minneapolis), Barry (will be behind plate in Cincy), likely won't be Miller (in LA).

weather could be cooperative for over. very humid and expected to stay that way. chance of rain, getting into Stros pen early can't be a bad thing. would expect Chisenhall to be back tomorrow.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
going to Tribe game, hoping for over ump. really hoping it's not Gerry Davis. i hate having total when he's behind plate (so inconsistent), would likely pass. Astros are obviously the side, but i'm not one to fade the home team, and -200ish on Carlos Carrasco is the funniest thing i've seen since Johnny Manziel flashing his QB rating at the Redskins bench.

according to my notes, potential umps include Meals, Davis, Hamari, Davidson, Muchlinski, Estabrook (?), Miller. won't be Meals (just worked series in Bronx), Hamari (was in Minneapolis), Barry (will be behind plate in Cincy), likely won't be Miller (in LA).

weather could be cooperative for over. very humid and expected to stay that way. chance of rain, getting into Stros pen early can't be a bad thing. would expect Chisenhall to be back tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Agree on the insanity of the Carrasco price and hope to take advantage of an overvalued CLE team, but Gerry is still one of the best over guys in the game and id love to have him behind the plate with an over lean
 
Surprised to see Baltimore as the dog, and figure they will close as a fave tomorrow. Especially after the Cubs played a game and a half this evening already, while Baltimore had the day off and was already in town for the WhiteSox series.

I got a nice chunk at +108 tonight.
 
Cubs have gone a season high 16 home games without scoring a 5+ run total
Their previous longest such streaks this season were 7 then 2 (6 times) games.
Before this streak they averaged one 5+ run total every 2.09 home games played.

Cubs have gone a season high 14 games without scoring a 5+ run total
Their previous longest such streaks this season were 6 then 5 (6 times) games.
Before this streak they averaged one 5+ run total every 2.57 games played.

After starting the season 5-6 SU playing @home off a SU loss, the Cubs have gone 12-5 SU in this spot since.

------

Baltimore is 1-3 SU & 0-4 on the runline (3.75 runs for, 5.00 runs ag.) this season off 4 wins in their previous 4 games.

Baltimore is 2-5 SU & 0-7 on the runline (3.14 runs for, 4.55 runs ag.) on the road this season off 3 wins in their previous 3 games.
 
GWarner27 said:
Agree on the insanity of the Carrasco price and hope to take advantage of an overvalued CLE team, but Gerry is still one of the best over guys in the game and id love to have him behind the plate with an over lean
Click to expand...

Thanks, GW. A few years ago, i had Davis as a solid over guy, but last three seasons his numbers seem to have skewed more to the under. A number of times when i've watched him, his zone has seemed very inconsistent, and i generally avoid totals with him or Diaz (though Diaz has been pretty consistent to the over this season). Like all decisions, perhaps time to revisit the one to avoid Davis totals.
 
Mariners have gone 18 games w/out conceding a 5+ run total:
League wide the next best streak this season is 13 games then 12 (twice) games.

Mariners have gone 28 games w/out conceding a 6+ run total:
League wide the next best streak this season is 19 (3 times) games then 18 (twice) games.

May 16-17 was the last time the Mariners lost 2 straight road games when at least 1 was against an AL opponent. Since then they are 8-0 SU & 7-1 on the runline off a road loss & playing on the road vs. an AL opponent (avg. 5.75 runs for/3.00 runs ag.; 6-2 to Over).

------

Red Sox are 1-10 SU their L11 home games scoring 5 runs or less, after going 19-21 SU in their previous 40 home games scoring 5 runs or less.
 
Braves are 11-9 to Over in road game 2's this season:
5-2 to Under vs. AL+NL West teams
9-4 to Over vs. all other teams

After starting the season 10-4 SU in road game 2's, Braves have gone 2-4 SU in their L6.

Braves are 4-7 SU (7-3-1 to Over) playing off a shutout win this season.

-----

Since July 25th, the Reds have gone 10-17 SU: 6-3 SU in game 2's & 4-14 SU in all other games (every game 2 loss was by a 1 run margin; games went 5-3-1 to Under).

Reds are 7-0 SU & 5-2 on the runline (avg. 5.14 runs for; 4-3 to Under) playing @home off a shutout loss this season.
 
Interesting game in Boston. Have to see if Ortiz and Ces play. Sea is 8-0 L8 after a loss, but they are also only 3-3 on current trip and 2-3 in Felix L5 starts. Bos just got swept at home. Kelly is serviceable.
 
scdoggy said:
Surprised to see Baltimore as the dog, and figure they will close as a fave tomorrow. Especially after the Cubs played a game and a half this evening already, while Baltimore had the day off and was already in town for the WhiteSox series.

I got a nice chunk at +108 tonight.
Click to expand...

agree, wish i had grabbed but was a little nervous about the extra motivation Arrieta should have after the O's gave up on him. Eyeing BAL for the series
 
BiffTFinancial said:
going to Tribe game, hoping for over ump. really hoping it's not Gerry Davis. i hate having total when he's behind plate (so inconsistent), would likely pass. Astros are obviously the side, but i'm not one to fade the home team, and -200ish on Carlos Carrasco is the funniest thing i've seen since Johnny Manziel flashing his QB rating at the Redskins bench.

according to my notes, potential umps include Meals, Davis, Hamari, Davidson, Muchlinski, Estabrook (?), Miller. won't be Meals (just worked series in Bronx), Hamari (was in Minneapolis), Barry (will be behind plate in Cincy), likely won't be Miller (in LA).

weather could be cooperative for over. very humid and expected to stay that way. chance of rain, getting into Stros pen early can't be a bad thing. would expect Chisenhall to be back tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Over probably a good thought there. Houston has really been hitting the ball well over L10 gms .270/4.9 r/9. Indians offense has been shitty but may get jump started facing Peacock who has been lit up recently. I am looking at Hou TT over or game over and agree price on Carrasco is crazy even though he has been good in two starts.
 
updated leans:
CIN -107/u7.5: Barry
CHW +172
TB +114
BAL -106
HOU +178
WAS u7
NYM u7.5
DET -103
OAK u7.5

on the radar:
SD +104
 
If I understand air density index, it would suggest that today at 59 it is abnormally low at Wrigley and could negatively affect ball movement for the hurlers.
 
Does Arrieta have any animosity toward Baltimore. Didnt hurt Price yesterday.Jake has owned Home/Day splits. For whatever reason, Gausman has had poor day performance.
 
Seattle is 11-3 after a day off
Kelly this season on 4 days rest is 0-3 with a ERA of 7.62
With Seattle and Felix both playing off losses-----
Smly is on best rest 4-0 2.97 ERA based 36.1 innings
 
tuck321 said:
Seattle is 11-3 after a day off
Kelly this season on 4 days rest is 0-3 with a ERA of 7.62
With Seattle and Felix both playing off losses-----
Smly is on best rest 4-0 2.97 ERA based 36.1 innings
Click to expand...

yeah my boston bet is toast, but not gonna sell off and take a loss
 
large trends for Tampa and Toronto. Stroman on 6 .69 ERA based on 13 innings. Under?
 
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