Friday Ump "Stalking" - weather/stats...and other thoughts

Dmoney416 said:
I probably worded poorly - didn't mean to imply that he was a gas can, but I have little confidence in him on a start-to-start basis. Just not a fan of betting on him in general.
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i can see what you mean then. I don't lay it with him much at all, with today being no exception. I'd much rather bet him at even money on the road against a good opponent then at home as big juice against some AAA clown. Like I said earlier, the opponent doesn't seem to matter much with him.
 
I had Over 8.5 -140 ... and i was just able to get Under 9.5 +200. So i'm hoping for exactly 9 runs. It'll be like hitting the jackpot!
 
So Rexy, I can't help but notice that there sometimes seems to be a pattern of you posting/betting against public money. Is this because you work for a book and you know that if you go against public money on this website that you can help your own interest/book even the money a little? I respect your insight, but sometimes cant help but think there is a conflict of interest in your postings. A lot of people respect your opinions/insight and if you are just posting opinions in order to get people to play the other way, there would seem to be a little problem with that. You liked the over in the Cubs game at 8.5 but then said you were playing the under at 9.5 after it got banged up by the public? Did you think the game would finish at 9? Not trying to rock the boat, but sometimes cant help but question your interests? just wondering if you think that your job influences your posts, everyone should know.
 
SunDev said:
So Rexy, I can't help but notice that there sometimes seems to be a pattern of you posting/betting against public money. Is this because you work for a book and you know that if you go against public money on this website that you can help your own interest/book even the money a little? I respect your insight, but sometimes cant help but think there is a conflict of interest in your postings. A lot of people respect your opinions/insight and if you are just posting opinions in order to get people to play the other way, there would seem to be a little problem with that. You liked the over in the Cubs game at 8.5 but then said you were playing the under at 9.5 after it got banged up by the public? Did you think the game would finish at 9? Not trying to rock the boat, but sometimes cant help but question your interests? just wondering if you think that your job influences your posts, everyone should know.
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Ut oh...
 
I think sane people understand that a desire to fade public opinion is an asset in sports betting. Thinking Rex is making dishonest picks is fairly amazing.
 
Sorry fellas, I gotta jet out for the night. GL on the Timmons and Campos stalk. If Campos lands in Houston, that's a pounder...
 
SunDev, and I mean this in a non-cynical fashion, do you realize how long Rexy's been publicly posting his picks? From blankets to BTB to here? Dude's been doing it for a long time.....well before he went to CR and worked for a book I'm pretty sure.
 
trust me, i enjoy reading everyone's opinions on this site. There is a lot of good insight. But can't help but question a person's interest. Not calling Rex out and not accusing him of bad intentions. But the dude does have a job and wants to do his job well. unfortunately that job is in the book making business. His opinion is respected here and holds sway. But on occasion i have seen examples like this where he liked a game liked today at 8.5 but then "bet" it the other way at 9.5. Was he that convinced it would finish at 9? I know this is a touchy subject and there is no good way to confront it, especially when it involves someone such as Rex who is very respected here. But can't help but shake my head sometimes. Sorry if i rub anyone the wrong way, in no way trying to.
 
SunDev said:
So Rexy, I can't help but notice that there sometimes seems to be a pattern of you posting/betting against public money. Is this because you work for a book and you know that if you go against public money on this website that you can help your own interest/book even the money a little? I respect your insight, but sometimes cant help but think there is a conflict of interest in your postings. A lot of people respect your opinions/insight and if you are just posting opinions in order to get people to play the other way, there would seem to be a little problem with that. You liked the over in the Cubs game at 8.5 but then said you were playing the under at 9.5 after it got banged up by the public? Did you think the game would finish at 9? Not trying to rock the boat, but sometimes cant help but question your interests? just wondering if you think that your job influences your posts, everyone should know.
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To answer your question about the game, 9 is the most popular number in baseball. If you would give me a reduced-juice (-105 or better) option to go OVER 8.5 and UNDER 9.5 or 10 in every game then I would do it blindly and be rich by the end of the year. So yes, I thought there was a chance the game could fall 9 or 10.

As to your I don't always post/bet against public money. Quite frankly, I don't care one bit who is on my side and/or who is against me. I have a lot of friends who work down here who can't tell me a thing about sports but they are good bookmakers and they win money betting because they follow certain professional players. I don't do that myself; I do my own work, make my own numbers and book off of them.

If you'll notice, I've never once said on here who I work for because I believe mingling any CTG affairs with my professional life could easily be construed as a conflict of interest. Everyone with a swinging dick on these forums (pops's thread is a good example) thinks that their information moves the line. The bottom line is that money moves the line, and there aren't too many people out there betting big money on the baseball right now.

Fair questions; I hope my answers were satisfactory.

GL tonight. I've got my camo on and am in the bushes with y'all... Let's stalk!
 
I hope my previous post answered your questions. Feel free to respond.

I am in the bookmaking business, but once I make my lines, I move them on volume. Really nothing else to it than that. You have to know how to book to do my job. Most people I know cannot do it as well as I can. The ones that do, I try to learn from.

I like contributing to the forum and have been a linesman at Covers (2003) and an owner/partner at three places since. We are really gaining steam here and have a good thing going and we're not even 3 years old yet.

Trust me, business is business. This is pleasure for me. The two don't mix.
 
fair enough. seriously was not trying to be a douche. But knowing your line of business it raised my eyebrows a little. No "uh oh's" needed shortline. sorry if i came across that way. Don't post very often (3 posts) obviously. But just wanted to hear from Rex. Satisfied. We're all good.
 
makes me hate that Nolasco's on my fantasy team but i have such a bad ERA/WHIP right now that it doesn't really matter what he does if i can get a win
 
really wanted an OVER in Philly, but i'm not sure i can do it with all those UNDER stats for Laz Diaz despite the 19-14 o/u last year
 
Shortline said:
Very, very rare side play for me...NYM -132
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132?? I'm seeing -117 on MB right now. Maybe it's not enough money, but i'm very intrigued by the Mets right now, too. Not sure i can back Livan and they killed me yesterday, but Cousins sitting at 25-10 for home teams is ridiculous
 
my mom was saying it's a nice day in Providence so that means it should be a nice night in Fenway.

...i leaned under originally but i'm not sure i want to play it cuz i can see Guthrie getting rocked as the Sox are pissed about that west coast debacle
 
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