Best NBA Player Props Today
Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel: Over 3.5 Total Made Three-Point Shots (+120) at Bovada
Indiana Pacers vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
Kon Knueppel is Charlotte’s best three-point shooter. He is converting 43.1 percent of his three-point attempts. Before his last game, he had been somewhat cold. But it was always clear that his slump would end soon. Most recently, he made four of his nine three-point attempts against Phoenix’s third-ranked perimeter defense, attesting to the success that he reliably enjoys even against the NBA’s most highly-ranked perimeter defenses.
Given the frequency with which he attempts nine or more three-pointers and given the fact that he has ended his slump, he can be counted on to make several three-pointers today. It is extremely reasonable to ask him to make at least four today for two reasons. One reason is his track record against Indiana: in three games against them, he is averaging five made threes. Moreover, he has had his best shooting performances in the second leg of a back-to-back, as when he made eight threes on January 29 against Dallas and seven threes on February 20 against Cleveland.
The Pacers have allowed over 120 points in seven of their last nine games. Charlotte loves to shoot threes, and many of its points tonight will come from its top shooter Knueppel.
Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels: Over 13.5 Total Points (+110) at Bovada
Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
When Brooklyn is playing, you should look to invest in opposing rim-attackers. Brooklyn allows the sixth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels is my weapon of choice tonight. On his team, he averages the second-most field goals per game in this space after Jalen Johnson. I prefer Daniels over Johnson because the latter player’s most recent games show that he can’t be counted on to score over 20 points – oddsmakers’ bar is set higher for him. Johnson has been depending on unusually strong three-point shooting to exceed that point total. Oddsmakers, in sum, accord Johnson too much respect.
So, in addition to the matchup favoring Daniels, I like Daniels because oddsmakers accord him less respect. Daniels had a slow start to the season – which explains why he didn’t score so many points in his previous games against the Nets. His March was substantially better, though, as evident in his increased points-per-month scoring average. He is continuing to improve, as he’s scored 18 points against Boston and 15 points against Orlando in his last two games, respectively. His success against the Celtics is particularly impressive given their top-ranking success at preventing shots closest to the basket. With Daniels’ matchup being so soft today and his form being so strong, he can be counted on to score at least 14 points.
Orlando’s Wendell Carter Jr. Over 12.5 Total Points (+130) at Bovada
Orlando Magic vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Dallas’ defense does a uniquely poor job of defending the space closest to the basket. The Mavericks allow the fourth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. From Orlando’s perspective, it is fitting for tonight’s matchup that they attempt field goals within this space at one of the highest rates. Normally, there would be plenty of Magic players to choose from for prop bets, which would make it difficult to choose a single player. However, Paolo Banchero has been somewhat cold. Desmond Bane has frequently been underperforming relative to his season scoring average. Anthony Black is out. Franz Wagner is still regaining form after a prolonged absence and must therefore be expected to continue to have his minutes limited. So, starting center Wendell Carter Jr. is clearly the guy to look at in this matchup as the Magic player who can be counted on the most to thrive against Dallas’ deficient rim protection.
Carter Jr. also enjoys good form, having scored 15 points against the Suns two games ago and, despite an overall awful performance from his team, 14 points in his last game against Atlanta. He gets a uniquely soft matchup tonight and, given his matchup edge, will be a fundamental part of Orlando’s bounce-back endeavor against a Dallas defense that has allowed at least 120 points in nine of its last ten games.
Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel: Over 3.5 Total Made Three-Point Shots (+120) at Bovada
Indiana Pacers vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
Kon Knueppel is Charlotte’s best three-point shooter. He is converting 43.1 percent of his three-point attempts. Before his last game, he had been somewhat cold. But it was always clear that his slump would end soon. Most recently, he made four of his nine three-point attempts against Phoenix’s third-ranked perimeter defense, attesting to the success that he reliably enjoys even against the NBA’s most highly-ranked perimeter defenses.
Given the frequency with which he attempts nine or more three-pointers and given the fact that he has ended his slump, he can be counted on to make several three-pointers today. It is extremely reasonable to ask him to make at least four today for two reasons. One reason is his track record against Indiana: in three games against them, he is averaging five made threes. Moreover, he has had his best shooting performances in the second leg of a back-to-back, as when he made eight threes on January 29 against Dallas and seven threes on February 20 against Cleveland.
The Pacers have allowed over 120 points in seven of their last nine games. Charlotte loves to shoot threes, and many of its points tonight will come from its top shooter Knueppel.
Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels: Over 13.5 Total Points (+110) at Bovada
Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
When Brooklyn is playing, you should look to invest in opposing rim-attackers. Brooklyn allows the sixth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels is my weapon of choice tonight. On his team, he averages the second-most field goals per game in this space after Jalen Johnson. I prefer Daniels over Johnson because the latter player’s most recent games show that he can’t be counted on to score over 20 points – oddsmakers’ bar is set higher for him. Johnson has been depending on unusually strong three-point shooting to exceed that point total. Oddsmakers, in sum, accord Johnson too much respect.
So, in addition to the matchup favoring Daniels, I like Daniels because oddsmakers accord him less respect. Daniels had a slow start to the season – which explains why he didn’t score so many points in his previous games against the Nets. His March was substantially better, though, as evident in his increased points-per-month scoring average. He is continuing to improve, as he’s scored 18 points against Boston and 15 points against Orlando in his last two games, respectively. His success against the Celtics is particularly impressive given their top-ranking success at preventing shots closest to the basket. With Daniels’ matchup being so soft today and his form being so strong, he can be counted on to score at least 14 points.
Orlando’s Wendell Carter Jr. Over 12.5 Total Points (+130) at Bovada
Orlando Magic vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Dallas’ defense does a uniquely poor job of defending the space closest to the basket. The Mavericks allow the fourth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. From Orlando’s perspective, it is fitting for tonight’s matchup that they attempt field goals within this space at one of the highest rates. Normally, there would be plenty of Magic players to choose from for prop bets, which would make it difficult to choose a single player. However, Paolo Banchero has been somewhat cold. Desmond Bane has frequently been underperforming relative to his season scoring average. Anthony Black is out. Franz Wagner is still regaining form after a prolonged absence and must therefore be expected to continue to have his minutes limited. So, starting center Wendell Carter Jr. is clearly the guy to look at in this matchup as the Magic player who can be counted on the most to thrive against Dallas’ deficient rim protection.
Carter Jr. also enjoys good form, having scored 15 points against the Suns two games ago and, despite an overall awful performance from his team, 14 points in his last game against Atlanta. He gets a uniquely soft matchup tonight and, given his matchup edge, will be a fundamental part of Orlando’s bounce-back endeavor against a Dallas defense that has allowed at least 120 points in nine of its last ten games.
