2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets: Memphis Is Master of the Mid-Range
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, April 18, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
Series History
History is said to be a great indicator of what will happen.
Miami and Atlanta have already played each other four times, and we can learn a lot by analyzing those results.
While their series history is tied at two games a piece, the respective ways in which the Heat lost those two games creates promise for their outlook tomorrow.
Atlanta's first win against Miami came when Jalen Johnson scored 28 points and De'Andre Hunter scored 26 points.
Because Atlanta won by ten points, it is evident that both players were obviously huge factors in its victory.
Johnson, however, is out for the season, and Hunter now plays for Cleveland.
In Atlanta's other victory over Miami, the Heat missed an absurd 33 three-pointers.
To beat Miami, the Hawks will need to acquire much better players or they will need Miami to be utterly cold from behind the arc.
The Hawks obviously won't acquire new players, and Miami is one of the more efficient teams from behind the arc. So, neither alternative is realistic.
Miami's Half-Court Defense
Hawks backers will want to look to matchup analysis to help them think of a new way in which their team can win tomorrow.
But matchup details reinforce the positiveness of Miami's outlook tomorrow.
The Hawks, to explain, primarily want to attack the basket. They attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This positions them negatively against a Miami defense that focuses on protecting the basket and wants to limit field goal attempts around the basket even at the expense of allowing three-point attempts, which Atlanta is not good at converting.
Especially with Kel'el Ware, the Heat like to rely on drop coverage to help them protect the basket.
They also have defenders like Haywood Highsmith ably guard driving threats, as when he managed an incredible block against a driving Coby White in last night's game against Chicago.
Miami's Transition Defense
The Heat defense is also strong in transition, and not just in the half-court.
They allow the fourth-fewest points in transition per game.
Their excellence against transition basketball is relevant tomorrow because the Hawks attempt shots in transition at one of the highest rates.
In addition to struggling in the half-court, the Hawks will fail to rely on their transition offense.
Atlanta's Defense
It is hard to like the Hawks when you don't like their offense. They allow the third-most points per game.
They struggle, in particular, to limit field goal makes and field goal efficiency in the mid-range spaces where Miami likes to operate.
The Heat will certainly rely on Duncan Robinson, Alec Burks', and Tyler Herro's shooting prowess from behind the arc, but their efficiency especially 10-14 feet from the basket will come more saliently into play against Atlanta's defense.
Takeaway
Matchup details indicate that the Heat will have no problem scoring against what is already a weak Atlanta defense. The Hawks won't keep pace against Miami's tough half-court and transition defense.
The well-coached Heat will triumph past an Atlanta team that is, to speak more generally, simply not playoff-caliber without Jalen Johnson and De'Andre Hunter.
Best Bet: Heat pk at -112 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Friday, April 18, 2025 at 9:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum
The Spread
The Grizzlies are strongly favored in this game.
While the spread might initially feel big, keep in mind that Memphis is especially well-suited to cover large spreads. The Grizzlies' emphasis on transition basketball means that their games feature more points because they include a greater number of possessions and therefore of scoring opportunities.
It is generally easier for a team like Memphis to win by a greater point total.
This is less likely to be true against a team that can run with the Grizzlies, a team that can exploit their weakness in transition defense.
But the Mavericks are not such a team. Their transition offense ranks in the 24th percentile.
Hence, Memphis won three of its four games against Dallas this year, with the one exception created by a 37-point performance from superstar Luka Doncic who now plays for the Lakers. The Grizzlies won their three games against Dallas by eleven points or more.
They likewise won their games against Portland, Charlotte, and Toronto by huge amounts because those are likewise teams that cannot run with them.
Dallas Offense's Let-Down Spot
History indicates that Dallas will struggle to score enough points also because they scored 120 points last night. The Mavericks achieved an incredible output from behind the arc, which they will need to attain again tomorrow.
However, when they score 120 points in a given game, their offense regularly flounders in the following game.
On April 13, for example, they scored 97 points against Memphis after scoring 124 in their previous game.
Before that, they scored 91 points against the Clippers after amassing 120 points in their previous game.
The list continues with similar examples in their losses to the Nets and Knicks.
Mid-Range Battle
Dallas will need this game to be low-scoring in order for it to compete.
But the Mavericks struggle to defend mid-range spaces.
Hence, even though Anthony Davis was healthy when they played the Clippers on April 5, they allowed 135 points.
Last night, they allowed 33 points to mid-range maestro DeMar DeRozan.
Overall, they allow the eighth-most field goal makes both 5-9 feet and 10-14 feet from the basket. Memphis loves scoring in these spaces and will thrive in them tonight.
The Grizzlies have more than just one mid-range maestro. Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. both attempt the seventh-most field goals 5-9 feet from the basket. Desmond Bane is another example of a good mid-range threat for them.
On the other hand, Memphis matches up well against teams like Miami and Dallas because they rely heavily on scoring 5-14 feet from the basket and the Grizzlies are great at defending in these spaces.
Memphis will score a lot of points as it excels in the mid-range, whereas another reason why the Mavericks will struggle to score tonight is that they won't be able to count on scoring in the mid-range.
Jaren Jackson Jr. and Company
Memphis' effort on defense has sometimes been subpar this season, but it's postseason time, so the Grizzlies are trying hard. They gave up 121 points to Golden State on Tuesday, but stars Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry accounted for almost two-thirds of those.
With Kyrie Irving hurt, Dallas has one good scorer in Anthony Davis who will have to contend with former Defensive Player of the Year selection Jaren Jackson Jr.
Whereas JJJ plus guys like Morant and Bane will score a lot, Dallas will lack sufficient firepower.
Best Bet: Grizzlies -6.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, April 18, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
Series History
History is said to be a great indicator of what will happen.
Miami and Atlanta have already played each other four times, and we can learn a lot by analyzing those results.
While their series history is tied at two games a piece, the respective ways in which the Heat lost those two games creates promise for their outlook tomorrow.
Atlanta's first win against Miami came when Jalen Johnson scored 28 points and De'Andre Hunter scored 26 points.
Because Atlanta won by ten points, it is evident that both players were obviously huge factors in its victory.
Johnson, however, is out for the season, and Hunter now plays for Cleveland.
In Atlanta's other victory over Miami, the Heat missed an absurd 33 three-pointers.
To beat Miami, the Hawks will need to acquire much better players or they will need Miami to be utterly cold from behind the arc.
The Hawks obviously won't acquire new players, and Miami is one of the more efficient teams from behind the arc. So, neither alternative is realistic.
Miami's Half-Court Defense
Hawks backers will want to look to matchup analysis to help them think of a new way in which their team can win tomorrow.
But matchup details reinforce the positiveness of Miami's outlook tomorrow.
The Hawks, to explain, primarily want to attack the basket. They attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This positions them negatively against a Miami defense that focuses on protecting the basket and wants to limit field goal attempts around the basket even at the expense of allowing three-point attempts, which Atlanta is not good at converting.
Especially with Kel'el Ware, the Heat like to rely on drop coverage to help them protect the basket.
They also have defenders like Haywood Highsmith ably guard driving threats, as when he managed an incredible block against a driving Coby White in last night's game against Chicago.
Miami's Transition Defense
The Heat defense is also strong in transition, and not just in the half-court.
They allow the fourth-fewest points in transition per game.
Their excellence against transition basketball is relevant tomorrow because the Hawks attempt shots in transition at one of the highest rates.
In addition to struggling in the half-court, the Hawks will fail to rely on their transition offense.
Atlanta's Defense
It is hard to like the Hawks when you don't like their offense. They allow the third-most points per game.
They struggle, in particular, to limit field goal makes and field goal efficiency in the mid-range spaces where Miami likes to operate.
The Heat will certainly rely on Duncan Robinson, Alec Burks', and Tyler Herro's shooting prowess from behind the arc, but their efficiency especially 10-14 feet from the basket will come more saliently into play against Atlanta's defense.
Takeaway
Matchup details indicate that the Heat will have no problem scoring against what is already a weak Atlanta defense. The Hawks won't keep pace against Miami's tough half-court and transition defense.
The well-coached Heat will triumph past an Atlanta team that is, to speak more generally, simply not playoff-caliber without Jalen Johnson and De'Andre Hunter.
Best Bet: Heat pk at -112 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Friday, April 18, 2025 at 9:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum
The Spread
The Grizzlies are strongly favored in this game.
While the spread might initially feel big, keep in mind that Memphis is especially well-suited to cover large spreads. The Grizzlies' emphasis on transition basketball means that their games feature more points because they include a greater number of possessions and therefore of scoring opportunities.
It is generally easier for a team like Memphis to win by a greater point total.
This is less likely to be true against a team that can run with the Grizzlies, a team that can exploit their weakness in transition defense.
But the Mavericks are not such a team. Their transition offense ranks in the 24th percentile.
Hence, Memphis won three of its four games against Dallas this year, with the one exception created by a 37-point performance from superstar Luka Doncic who now plays for the Lakers. The Grizzlies won their three games against Dallas by eleven points or more.
They likewise won their games against Portland, Charlotte, and Toronto by huge amounts because those are likewise teams that cannot run with them.
Dallas Offense's Let-Down Spot
History indicates that Dallas will struggle to score enough points also because they scored 120 points last night. The Mavericks achieved an incredible output from behind the arc, which they will need to attain again tomorrow.
However, when they score 120 points in a given game, their offense regularly flounders in the following game.
On April 13, for example, they scored 97 points against Memphis after scoring 124 in their previous game.
Before that, they scored 91 points against the Clippers after amassing 120 points in their previous game.
The list continues with similar examples in their losses to the Nets and Knicks.
Mid-Range Battle
Dallas will need this game to be low-scoring in order for it to compete.
But the Mavericks struggle to defend mid-range spaces.
Hence, even though Anthony Davis was healthy when they played the Clippers on April 5, they allowed 135 points.
Last night, they allowed 33 points to mid-range maestro DeMar DeRozan.
Overall, they allow the eighth-most field goal makes both 5-9 feet and 10-14 feet from the basket. Memphis loves scoring in these spaces and will thrive in them tonight.
The Grizzlies have more than just one mid-range maestro. Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. both attempt the seventh-most field goals 5-9 feet from the basket. Desmond Bane is another example of a good mid-range threat for them.
On the other hand, Memphis matches up well against teams like Miami and Dallas because they rely heavily on scoring 5-14 feet from the basket and the Grizzlies are great at defending in these spaces.
Memphis will score a lot of points as it excels in the mid-range, whereas another reason why the Mavericks will struggle to score tonight is that they won't be able to count on scoring in the mid-range.
Jaren Jackson Jr. and Company
Memphis' effort on defense has sometimes been subpar this season, but it's postseason time, so the Grizzlies are trying hard. They gave up 121 points to Golden State on Tuesday, but stars Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry accounted for almost two-thirds of those.
With Kyrie Irving hurt, Dallas has one good scorer in Anthony Davis who will have to contend with former Defensive Player of the Year selection Jaren Jackson Jr.
Whereas JJJ plus guys like Morant and Bane will score a lot, Dallas will lack sufficient firepower.
Best Bet: Grizzlies -6.5 at -115 with BetOnline
