Friday Night Play

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Hey guys. Haven't posted a thread in quite a while. Posted up until a couple weeks ago going 15-20 or so in CFB, because I was forcing things and playing too many games. I honestly think posting has something to do with it - it's like I want to get something up and end up forcing things.

Anyway, since I quit I've been very selective and have been on a 11-4 run since then in all sports. Back in the black now for CFB by a couple units and have one that I like tonight....


Pretty perfect situation tonight in San Jose. Boise St. comes in ranked #13 and with a true freshman at the helm, who is playing some good football. I was looking at some numbers yesterday and told myself that I was going to fade Boise St the next road game against a decent squad, because I believe that they are terribly overrated. They are the highest ranked team in the nation that has not played a single Top 30 team this year. You may say, "Now Ramble, what Top 30 team has San Jose St played?", and I would answer: none. Then again, San Jose St isn't laying 7 points on the road to a solid team at home.

Aside from the fact that Boise St is overrated, there are two main reasons I think San Jose St is a solid bet.

First, for a team like this to compete you have to have a good defense. San Jose St has that. They are 13th in the nation in yards allowed, including 11th in rush D and 36th in Pass D. They have two guys that lead the nation in tackles for loss and interceptions, respectively. Boise St has struggled to run on the road this year (1.1 ypc at Oregon on 34 attempts) and I think SJST will play well in that regard. I know San Jose St hasn't had the toughest schedule, but it has been tougher than the Broncos'.

Second, I think SJST obviously has emotion on their side. We have seen what happens to ranked teams that come to play in their stadium. They have always played good ranked teams close, but failed to finish the game. I think the players believe they can win this game, and being on National TV to prove it doesn't hurt either. Previous SJST teams have faltered near the end, but this is an improved Spartans team. I don't know if they get the Mouse of their collective backs, but they sure as hell are going to go all out to do it. They are 5-2 on the year, undefeated at home, and are 5-1 ATS.

Whether this wager wins or loses, I think this situation is as good as they come. Going to be a tough upset but I'll sprinkle some chips on the ML too.

The Play: San Jose St +7.5 (-106 at MB)

:shake:
 
Last edited:
G/L Ramble...

Just thinking out loud - is it possible that SJST's defensive rankings are over-valued because they have played some pretty shitty teams? Look at who they played...Any juggernaut offenses? Im not saying they are a dog, but everyone and their mother on this board and other boards are taking SJST - the consensus got to be 90% from my sampling......Maybe everyone is mixing up their Spartans and think that this game is in E. Lansing tonight......
 
it's like I want to get something up and end up forcing things

First off Good Luck. Second I completely agree with that statement especially if your are pllaying mutilple sports and multiple games . I often feel obligated to play something after I posted or commented on it or feel like because there is a game I need to have an opinion on it .

So I completely understand where you are coming from and why I prefer to dabble in the discussion threads rather then start threads . I can say what I feel and have people decide for themselves rather then feel obligated to play certain things in a certain manner ......

Have a small play on SJ ST as well but like Boise 1st H a tad...nothing big for me actually a game I want to see some of...

GL and your not crazy for feeling that way.:shake::cheers:
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
G/L Ramble...

Just thinking out loud - is it possible that SJST's defensive rankings are over-valued because they have played some pretty shitty teams? Look at who they played...Any juggernaut offenses? Im not saying they are a dog, but everyone and their mother on this board and other boards are taking SJST - the consensus got to be 90% from my sampling......Maybe everyone is mixing up their Spartans and think that this game is in E. Lansing tonight......
Click to expand...

Yeah, sorry when I'm posting sometimes I don't post the right things, Haha.

You question is answered in my post above. They haven't played anyone but neither has Boise St! By your line of thought, Boise St's offensive numbers are over-valued. Then we'd have a wash. And my team is catching 7. :shake:
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
G/L Ramble...

Just thinking out loud - is it possible that SJST's defensive rankings are over-valued because they have played some pretty shitty teams? Look at who they played...Any juggernaut offenses? Im not saying they are a dog, but everyone and their mother on this board and other boards are taking SJST - the consensus got to be 90% from my sampling......Maybe everyone is mixing up their Spartans and think that this game is in E. Lansing tonight......
Click to expand...

I'm not saying this is a hammertime play. However, I will bet this situation every day and twice on Sunday. Overrated Boise St squad, who is not the same as past squads, laying 7.5 on National TV to a team who has covered every game but 1 this year, has played every ranked team that shows up close, is better than years past, and is anxious to prove that they can finish games against big opponents.

All day, whether it wins or loses this time. :shake:
 
SportsNut said:
it's like I want to get something up and end up forcing things

First off Good Luck. Second I completely agree with that statement especially if your are pllaying mutilple sports and multiple games . I often feel obligated to play something after I posted or commented on it or feel like because there is a game I need to have an opinion on it .

So I completely understand where you are coming from and why I prefer to dabble in the discussion threads rather then start threads . I can say what I feel and have people decide for themselves rather then feel obligated to play certain things in a certain manner ......

Have a small play on SJ ST as well but like Boise 1st H a tad...nothing big for me actually a game I want to see some of...

GL and your not crazy for feeling that way.:shake::cheers:
Click to expand...

Thanks for the thoughts. It's very odd that as soon as I stop posting I stopped forcing things, so for now that is what I'm going to attribute it to. Good luck with your Boise 1st H bet - I may be looking to play Boise for half my bet at half time if San Jose St is dominating, as they have been known to falter near the end. :shake:
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
G/L Ramble...

Just thinking out loud - is it possible that SJST's defensive rankings are over-valued because they have played some pretty shitty teams? Look at who they played...Any juggernaut offenses? Im not saying they are a dog, but everyone and their mother on this board and other boards are taking SJST - the consensus got to be 90% from my sampling......Maybe everyone is mixing up their Spartans and think that this game is in E. Lansing tonight......
Click to expand...
:36_11_6:
 
RambleOn said:
Yeah, sorry when I'm posting sometimes I don't post the right things, Haha.

You question is answered in my post above. They haven't played anyone but neither has Boise St! By your line of thought, Boise St's offensive numbers are over-valued. Then we'd have a wash. And my team is catching 7. :shake:
Click to expand...


You may be right - Boise's offensive numbers may be inflated....But Boise's stats arent what the SJST backers are touting in their rationale for taking the points....Dont care who was out for Oregon at QB, winning in that stadium against Pac-10 athletes is a nice win......Better than any win SJST has.....I wish you the best!
 
Fondybadger said:
What do you see the final score being?
Click to expand...

San Jose St has allowed 10, 10, and 7 at home this year, but as well know Boise St is going to be their toughest defensive test yet. Boise St has won 2 on the road, winning by 17 and 5 and scoring 37 and 24. I don't think we see Boise over 21 pts and am looking at playing their team total under 24. Honestly think it creeps under with a 21-17 or 21-20 type game either way. :shake:
 
Have agreed with many of your plays over the time I've been lurking here. Glad to see you on this. You've also encouraged me to throw a bit on the ML. Let's cash it.

:cheers:
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
Have agreed with many of your plays over the time I've been lurking here. Glad to see you on this. You've also encouraged me to throw a bit on the ML. Let's cash it.

:cheers:
Click to expand...

Very kind of you, thanks. :shake: Good luck to us.


Actually just got -106 at Matchbook. :cheers:
 
I'm pretty close to making a large play on the Boise State TT O24 for about 2.5x+ my normal and 1H O13 and -7 for around my normal amount

Here's my thoughts...
  1. Boise State is averaging 32.5 ppg and 421.2 total ypg
  2. Red-shirt freshmen Moore has completed 72.4 percent of his passes for 1,591 yards and 13 scores, with 3 interceptions.
  3. Ian Johnson has rushed for 363 yards and four scores
  4. Boise State has only surrendered six sacks this season
  5. Only scored under 24 points once this season (yes it's not the same dynamic offense of past years, but they consistently put up 28-35 points a game)
  6. Boise State defense allows 10.5 ppg
  7. SJST QB has struggled this season
  8. Seeing good field position for Boise State most of the night
  9. SJST can attribute there good record to pressure up front and getting tackles for losses (something Boise State should be able to able to avoid)
Predicted Final 34-10 Boise State
 
  1. Boise State is averaging 32.5 ppg and 421.2 total ypg
  2. Red-shirt freshmen Moore has completed 72.4 percent of his passes for 1,591 yards and 13 scores, with 3 interceptions.
  3. Ian Johnson has rushed for 363 yards and four scores
  4. Boise State has only surrendered six sacks this season
  5. Only scored under 24 points once this season (yes it's not the same dynamic offense of past years, but they consistently put up 28-35 points a game)
  6. Boise State defense allows 10.5 ppg
  7. SJST QB has struggled this season
  8. Seeing good field position for Boise State most of the night
  9. SJST can attribute there good record to pressure up front and getting tackles for losses (something Boise State should be able to able to avoid)
Click to expand...
Not happy to see you against us here, Fondy. Don't get too caught up in these numbers with Boise having the 104th best strength of schedule. This defense is going to test Moore tonight. I just don't think this is a good spot to put big units on Boise on the road. Good health to you though, Fondy. You're a great capper and I usually agree with most of your plays.
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
You may be right - Boise's offensive numbers may be inflated....But Boise's stats arent what the SJST backers are touting in their rationale for taking the points....Dont care who was out for Oregon at QB, winning in that stadium against Pac-10 athletes is a nice win......Better than any win SJST has.....I wish you the best!
Click to expand...

sword, i am not trying to bash your thoughts here or anything and i can certainly see your point, but just curious --- did you watch that oregon/boise game? i think the win was deceiving in many ways, not just the qb situation is the reason i ask

and i don't know if it was in this thread or not, but someone mentioned, what have they done against neb/stanford (the only good teams)- they lose by more than a td in both of those...and the fact is they could have easily won either of those games. they were in both of them until late, and both scores are very deceiving. nebraska it was 14-12 in the fourth quarter, and kyle reed, sjst's qb got knocked out of the game. neb was OUTGAINED by this squad for the game, and sjst missed 2 fgs and an extra point. neb scored on a kick return and a pick that was returned to the sjst 14 yard line. they also threw another fourth quarter pick threatening that deflating any hope, and nebraska scored a garbage td. the stanford game was infamous around here and it was a very even game as well...they jumped out to a 10-0 lead early on stanford, and stanford didn't lead until late in the 3Q, when they kicked a 53 yarder. in the 2Q...on the 2 yard line going in for a td, sjst fumbled into the back of the endzone, and on a critical play, stanford's qb caught a pass that was deflected and ran with it for the then-biggest play for stanford of 25 yards. stanford shut sjst out of the endzone when they were threatening when stan was only up 16-10 late in the fourth on a fourth down sack, then marched down and scored a td with something like 19 seconds left to make it look a lot worse than it was.

i also think it was quite impressive holding nm state to 14 pts on the road...

i know that may sound like excuses for sjst, but those are bigger schools with better athletes on the road, and it's definitely excusable for them to fold with the game on the line late as 27 (?) and 9 (?) point underdogs. being at home against comparable talent (i personally think they are simply the better football team straight up), i expect them to close a big win out
 
Mr. McIlhon said:

[/list]
Not happy to see you against us here, Fondy. Don't get too caught up in these numbers with Boise having the 104th best strength of schedule. This defense is going to test Moore tonight. I just don't think this is a good spot to put big units on Boise on the road. Good health to you though, Fondy. You're a great capper and I usually agree with most of your plays.
Click to expand...


I don't really feel there's much of a difference in S.O.S. for either of these two teams as they're both so far down there, other than to say they haven't played much of anything. SJST has played Boise State pretty decently at home, but have never beat them there. While the defense may test Moore, I feel the line will provide the necessary help and Ian Johnson will do enough on the ground to keep SJST honest. I can see this game starting off a bit slowly, but as the game wears on and field position switches around, Boise State will have the edge. Also see some late scoring in this game on defense/special teams and Boise State maybe putting one late with a backdoor cover if need be (although I think they'll be up 17-3ish at half).
 
Fondybadger said:
I'm pretty close to making a large play on the Boise State TT O24 for about 2.5x+ my normal and 1H O13 and -7 for around my normal amount


Here's my thoughts...
  1. Boise State is averaging 32.5 ppg and 421.2 total ypg
  2. Red-shirt freshmen Moore has completed 72.4 percent of his passes for 1,591 yards and 13 scores, with 3 interceptions.
  3. Ian Johnson has rushed for 363 yards and four scores
  4. Boise State has only surrendered six sacks this season
  5. Only scored under 24 points once this season (yes it's not the same dynamic offense of past years, but they consistently put up 28-35 points a game)
  6. Boise State defense allows 10.5 ppg
  7. SJST QB has struggled this season
  8. Seeing good field position for Boise State most of the night
  9. SJST can attribute there good record to pressure up front and getting tackles for losses (something Boise State should be able to able to avoid)
Predicted Final 34-10 Boise State
Click to expand...

i think reed will outperform moore tonight, and i don't think it will be close. i see a 24-20 sjst win. bol fond
 
I'm leaning Spartans for a moderate play, but what about this total?

The UNDER is screaming at me from down the hall begging to be the biggest play of the weekend. Spartans offense is dreadful, and they're up against a stout Boise defense. Personally I don't think San Jose puts up more than 13-14 points here, and with Boise I'd expect a healthy dose of Ian Johnson. They aren't going to put their Freshman QB in 3rd and longs against this team with a solid defense at home on a Friday night.

I see a squeaker, but the UNDER looks to be the play here.
 
Also, does anyone know the status of Jef SChweiger (starting C for SJST)? Listed as questionable for tonight, but no way I bet a team without its center.....
 
RambleOn said:
I honestly think posting has something to do with it - it's like I want to get something up and end up forcing things.
Click to expand...

Thats an interesting topic for the "talkin shop" thread... Interesting because I kind of feel the opposite.. I feel like when I am not posting I have no one I am accountable to except myself and I'll tend to play some marginal plays just for action.. Whereas if I am posting I feel like I am more accountable and have a better dicipline to only to share my best plays..

A couple years ago I would post but also make a few plays I didn't post and I noticed my posted plays, as an overall percentage, always hit at a higher percentage. So now, I only play what I post and it has helped my discipline IMO.. Don't chase as much and tend to focus on only on what I view as my best of the best plays. (unless I just can't get to a computer or if it is a quick turnaround on a HT wager)

I just find that interesting that we look at the aspect differently.. No right way just interesting... I would be interested how others feel on this topic.. Mods can move my post to the Talkin shop section if they like because thats really were it belongs and don't want to jumble my boys thread..

GL on the play btw ramble.. Leaning the other way but not sure its a play.
 
ian johnson really isn't the focal point of this offense anymore, and it could be argued he's not even the best back on the team. still an excellent leader, etc, but his role has diminished....he's averaging less than 11 carries per game the last 3 games, and avery (sick back) and harper have seen the ball more. i doubt he'll be too effective today (although maybe on kick returns), or any rb for that matter. i don't think moore can play mistake free football and make the right throws when he HAS to...which should be tonight.
 
YOu're right broadway - I should have said that the running game is more of a focal point. My point is that Boise is now a running team. And it looks like the linesmakers have adjusted the total here, but it may not be enough.....
 
scdoggy said:
Also, does anyone know the status of Jef SChweiger (starting C for SJST)? Listed as questionable for tonight, but no way I bet a team without its center.....
Click to expand...

unless i have been reading wrong -- Schweiger is a DE; and he should play. starting center is Paysinger and he hasn't missed time to the best of my knowledge
 
broadwayjoe said:
i think reed will outperform moore tonight, and i don't think it will be close. i see a 24-20 sjst win. bol fond
Click to expand...

I'm staying FAR away tonight (unless I start drinking)...but I don't understand this take after Reed's POOR showing @ NMSU last week:

While San Jose State did post 31 points against New Mexico State last week, it is hard to give much credit to the team's offense. After all, the Spartans scored just two offensive touchdowns on drives of 38 and 12 yards, respectively. Kyle Reed struggled under center, completing 8-of-18 passes for 50 yards with three interceptions and no scoring passes. Fortunately, the ground attack proved to be productive, as Yonus Davis rushed for 107 yards and one touchdown, while Brandon Rutley had 50 yards and a score on nine carries.

And I'd wager that Boise's D is much better then NMSU...:shake:
 
MrMulligan said:
I'm staying FAR away tonight (unless I start drinking)...but I don't understand this take after Reed's POOR showing @ NMSU last week:

While San Jose State did post 31 points against New Mexico State last week, it is hard to give much credit to the team's offense. After all, the Spartans scored just two offensive touchdowns on drives of 38 and 12 yards, respectively. Kyle Reed struggled under center, completing 8-of-18 passes for 50 yards with three interceptions and no scoring passes. Fortunately, the ground attack proved to be productive, as Yonus Davis rushed for 107 yards and one touchdown, while Brandon Rutley had 50 yards and a score on nine carries.

And I'd wager that Boise's D is much better then NMSU...:shake:
Click to expand...

i could definitely see why you wouldn't think so...mostly just a gut feeling seeing the talent of these two and the defenses of both teams quite a bit...completely different situation than that nm state game, and no question boise has a better defense...much better, sometimes all the stats in the world don't matter, and i just feel that the opportunities will be there for him, and he'll make the plays he needs to. moore hasn't had any pressure on him at all, and he will tonight in a tight game on the road where they will struggle to run...

:cheers:
 
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