All right, I have been spending an inordinate amount of time on this game and feel like I have it capped to a tee. Obviously things can happen but I think they will happen in my favor. Lets go step by step through this match up.
First we will go game-by-game through Connecticut’s schedule this season:
Week 1:
They played a non board game against Rhode Island. This is the usual cupcake cakewalk as the Huskies rolled 52-7. The key stat for us in capping tonight’s present game is that R.I gained 198 yards via the ground game. A bye week would follow.
Week 3:
Wake Forest was the opponent. The Deacons cruised to a 24-13 victory. Wake rushed for 163 yards (4.1 per). Hernandez had a nice game for Uconn (19-32 197) although he did throw 2 picks, one of which proved costly as it was returned all the way.
Week 4:
A 14-7 win here for Uconn. This was an odd game to say the least. The Huskies scores came on a 39-yard INT return and a 35-yard run play. For the game, Indiana rushed 27 times for exactly zero yards. We will throw this out as an abnormality in Uconns season. Uconn themselves passed for just 16 total yards on 6 completions. Hernandez was the QB here as well.
Week 5:
Navy came to town and the result was a 41-17 loss for the Huskies. This is the team most similar to WVU in style. The middies rushed for an incredible 504 yards (even for them). They complemented that with 141 passing yards as well. Uconn QB Bonislawski passed for 176(15-37 attempts). The vast number of attempts and subsequent okay yardage needs to be attributed to the fact that they were in a comeback mode.
Week 6:
South Florida put the beat down on Uconn 38-16. Once again, as we mention the Uconn passing statistics lets mention that they faced 14-0 and 28-9 deficits. Bonislawski was 20-40 for 201 yards. South Florida gained 213 via the ground.
Week 7:
Army came to town and left a 21-7 loser. Note that the Army QB left in first quarter. Uconn jumped to a 14-0 lead in that first quarter off two huge plays. A PR touchdown and a Terry Caulley 98 yard run. Take away the Caulley run and Uconn struggled via the ground averaging less than 3.7 ypc. Bonislawski was 10-22 for 139 yards.
To summarize: The wins came against a non-board team; a team that lost its starting QB and a team whose head coach was absent. Also, 3 huge plays contributed to the 5 touchdowns in the wins against Indiana and Army. Basically, the offense hasn’t had much consistency. In the losses, the defense has gotten shelled.
Now I want to turn my attention to West Virginia. My first look here is at the rushing numbers for WVU and its opposition so far this season game-by-game:
Opponent Name WVU Rushing Opponent rushing
Marshall ------------309----- ------------147(4.6)
E. Washington------410 -----------------79(3.8)
Maryland -----------361 -----------------134(4.1)
E. Carolina ---------152 ----------------42(1.8)
Miss State ----------330 -----------------113(3.1)
Syracuse------------ 457------------ -----116(3.3)
We all know how well the Mountaineers run. Slaton and White are the scariest running combo in the country. They will break the big one sooner or later each game. Its also usually not a one time occurrence. You can take those rushing stats against how you want to. We know that WVI is involved in many blowouts so obviously other teams are not pounding the ball. That’s why I showed the YPC for each game so you could get a better feel for how solid the WVU defense is against the run.
Lets look back at WVU’s season in a quick scope here. All I want to concentrate on is their defense. They have come under fire for some shoddy performances on defense. I agree that their defense is not the best. I also know that it’s the pass defense that kills them. Many cappers here made those points before the Maryland game. It almost came true as Hollenbach nearly passed them into a back-door cover. ECU passed all over them as well and that’s why the game was in doubt till quite late.
I am none too impressed with the Uconn QB’s. They are downright not good. The only time they have put up numbers are in come from behind scenarios. They may put up numbers in this game, but it will be late. Perry Patterson was 9-21 for 146 yards last week. That included one huge gain for a TD. I wouldn’t say the Uconn QB is better than Patterson. I would say they merit the same recognition.
As for the Uconn run game, I think WVU can hold it down. They may have a big run or a have a drive in the game but overall I expect a solid effort from the WVU defense against the run. They have done it so far this year and I expect no less.
We know WVU is going to run the ball. Previous history shows they can do it against Uconn. Navy showed a run oriented offense can do it in this spot. The Huskies run defense is just plain poor. WVU should get 300-400 yards on ground in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if it got well over 400.
The WVU pass game has gotten better and better each week since Pat White has started. He is still prone to picks at times but he makes better decisions and is becoming more accurate. Big plays out of the passing game cannot be discounted.
Here’s a quick recap of last years game:
WVU won handily 45-13. They dominated with 22-9 edge in first downs. They did okay on ground for them (57-228) while completely shutting down Uconn ground wise(38-12).
I think you get my drift here. This is matching strengths against weaknesses. There is a reason this line has jumped from 17 to 22.5. Yeah, it’s a public favorite and those can fall flat on their faces on Friday nights but not this time my friends. I wouldn’t lay much chalk with WVU against teams that can pass. That’s a no-no this year as you will see in 11 days or so with the UL-WVU game. This isn’t a look ahead for WVU yet as they will have almost 2 weeks off after to prepare for the contest. Uconn may want to bill this as its GOY but Marshall did same thing and look what happened to them when they played WVU.
No coincidence which teams have covered against WVU this year. The two teams with decent passing games. This Uconn squad will not be a decent passing team anytime this year.
I expect WVU to score often and early and expect them to get short fields with turnovers. This total will go well over and WVU should roll them. I am quite confident on this game. I don’t play side and total often but I love this game and think it will be the easiest winner this week. The only thing I can hit myself on is not playing this earlier. No worries, it still covers.
Good luck all.
WVU 49-10
WVU –22.5 –108 4 UNITS
WVU/UCONN over 48 –105 2 UNITS.
First we will go game-by-game through Connecticut’s schedule this season:
Week 1:
They played a non board game against Rhode Island. This is the usual cupcake cakewalk as the Huskies rolled 52-7. The key stat for us in capping tonight’s present game is that R.I gained 198 yards via the ground game. A bye week would follow.
Week 3:
Wake Forest was the opponent. The Deacons cruised to a 24-13 victory. Wake rushed for 163 yards (4.1 per). Hernandez had a nice game for Uconn (19-32 197) although he did throw 2 picks, one of which proved costly as it was returned all the way.
Week 4:
A 14-7 win here for Uconn. This was an odd game to say the least. The Huskies scores came on a 39-yard INT return and a 35-yard run play. For the game, Indiana rushed 27 times for exactly zero yards. We will throw this out as an abnormality in Uconns season. Uconn themselves passed for just 16 total yards on 6 completions. Hernandez was the QB here as well.
Week 5:
Navy came to town and the result was a 41-17 loss for the Huskies. This is the team most similar to WVU in style. The middies rushed for an incredible 504 yards (even for them). They complemented that with 141 passing yards as well. Uconn QB Bonislawski passed for 176(15-37 attempts). The vast number of attempts and subsequent okay yardage needs to be attributed to the fact that they were in a comeback mode.
Week 6:
South Florida put the beat down on Uconn 38-16. Once again, as we mention the Uconn passing statistics lets mention that they faced 14-0 and 28-9 deficits. Bonislawski was 20-40 for 201 yards. South Florida gained 213 via the ground.
Week 7:
Army came to town and left a 21-7 loser. Note that the Army QB left in first quarter. Uconn jumped to a 14-0 lead in that first quarter off two huge plays. A PR touchdown and a Terry Caulley 98 yard run. Take away the Caulley run and Uconn struggled via the ground averaging less than 3.7 ypc. Bonislawski was 10-22 for 139 yards.
To summarize: The wins came against a non-board team; a team that lost its starting QB and a team whose head coach was absent. Also, 3 huge plays contributed to the 5 touchdowns in the wins against Indiana and Army. Basically, the offense hasn’t had much consistency. In the losses, the defense has gotten shelled.
Now I want to turn my attention to West Virginia. My first look here is at the rushing numbers for WVU and its opposition so far this season game-by-game:
Opponent Name WVU Rushing Opponent rushing
Marshall ------------309----- ------------147(4.6)
E. Washington------410 -----------------79(3.8)
Maryland -----------361 -----------------134(4.1)
E. Carolina ---------152 ----------------42(1.8)
Miss State ----------330 -----------------113(3.1)
Syracuse------------ 457------------ -----116(3.3)
We all know how well the Mountaineers run. Slaton and White are the scariest running combo in the country. They will break the big one sooner or later each game. Its also usually not a one time occurrence. You can take those rushing stats against how you want to. We know that WVI is involved in many blowouts so obviously other teams are not pounding the ball. That’s why I showed the YPC for each game so you could get a better feel for how solid the WVU defense is against the run.
Lets look back at WVU’s season in a quick scope here. All I want to concentrate on is their defense. They have come under fire for some shoddy performances on defense. I agree that their defense is not the best. I also know that it’s the pass defense that kills them. Many cappers here made those points before the Maryland game. It almost came true as Hollenbach nearly passed them into a back-door cover. ECU passed all over them as well and that’s why the game was in doubt till quite late.
I am none too impressed with the Uconn QB’s. They are downright not good. The only time they have put up numbers are in come from behind scenarios. They may put up numbers in this game, but it will be late. Perry Patterson was 9-21 for 146 yards last week. That included one huge gain for a TD. I wouldn’t say the Uconn QB is better than Patterson. I would say they merit the same recognition.
As for the Uconn run game, I think WVU can hold it down. They may have a big run or a have a drive in the game but overall I expect a solid effort from the WVU defense against the run. They have done it so far this year and I expect no less.
We know WVU is going to run the ball. Previous history shows they can do it against Uconn. Navy showed a run oriented offense can do it in this spot. The Huskies run defense is just plain poor. WVU should get 300-400 yards on ground in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if it got well over 400.
The WVU pass game has gotten better and better each week since Pat White has started. He is still prone to picks at times but he makes better decisions and is becoming more accurate. Big plays out of the passing game cannot be discounted.
Here’s a quick recap of last years game:
WVU won handily 45-13. They dominated with 22-9 edge in first downs. They did okay on ground for them (57-228) while completely shutting down Uconn ground wise(38-12).
I think you get my drift here. This is matching strengths against weaknesses. There is a reason this line has jumped from 17 to 22.5. Yeah, it’s a public favorite and those can fall flat on their faces on Friday nights but not this time my friends. I wouldn’t lay much chalk with WVU against teams that can pass. That’s a no-no this year as you will see in 11 days or so with the UL-WVU game. This isn’t a look ahead for WVU yet as they will have almost 2 weeks off after to prepare for the contest. Uconn may want to bill this as its GOY but Marshall did same thing and look what happened to them when they played WVU.
No coincidence which teams have covered against WVU this year. The two teams with decent passing games. This Uconn squad will not be a decent passing team anytime this year.
I expect WVU to score often and early and expect them to get short fields with turnovers. This total will go well over and WVU should roll them. I am quite confident on this game. I don’t play side and total often but I love this game and think it will be the easiest winner this week. The only thing I can hit myself on is not playing this earlier. No worries, it still covers.
Good luck all.
WVU 49-10
WVU –22.5 –108 4 UNITS
WVU/UCONN over 48 –105 2 UNITS.
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