Friday Night Action: Huge side and solid total inside with detailed analysis

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
All right, I have been spending an inordinate amount of time on this game and feel like I have it capped to a tee. Obviously things can happen but I think they will happen in my favor. Lets go step by step through this match up.

First we will go game-by-game through Connecticut’s schedule this season:

Week 1:

They played a non board game against Rhode Island. This is the usual cupcake cakewalk as the Huskies rolled 52-7. The key stat for us in capping tonight’s present game is that R.I gained 198 yards via the ground game. A bye week would follow.

Week 3:

Wake Forest was the opponent. The Deacons cruised to a 24-13 victory. Wake rushed for 163 yards (4.1 per). Hernandez had a nice game for Uconn (19-32 197) although he did throw 2 picks, one of which proved costly as it was returned all the way.

Week 4:

A 14-7 win here for Uconn. This was an odd game to say the least. The Huskies scores came on a 39-yard INT return and a 35-yard run play. For the game, Indiana rushed 27 times for exactly zero yards. We will throw this out as an abnormality in Uconns season. Uconn themselves passed for just 16 total yards on 6 completions. Hernandez was the QB here as well.

Week 5:

Navy came to town and the result was a 41-17 loss for the Huskies. This is the team most similar to WVU in style. The middies rushed for an incredible 504 yards (even for them). They complemented that with 141 passing yards as well. Uconn QB Bonislawski passed for 176(15-37 attempts). The vast number of attempts and subsequent okay yardage needs to be attributed to the fact that they were in a comeback mode.

Week 6:

South Florida put the beat down on Uconn 38-16. Once again, as we mention the Uconn passing statistics lets mention that they faced 14-0 and 28-9 deficits. Bonislawski was 20-40 for 201 yards. South Florida gained 213 via the ground.

Week 7:

Army came to town and left a 21-7 loser. Note that the Army QB left in first quarter. Uconn jumped to a 14-0 lead in that first quarter off two huge plays. A PR touchdown and a Terry Caulley 98 yard run. Take away the Caulley run and Uconn struggled via the ground averaging less than 3.7 ypc. Bonislawski was 10-22 for 139 yards.
To summarize: The wins came against a non-board team; a team that lost its starting QB and a team whose head coach was absent. Also, 3 huge plays contributed to the 5 touchdowns in the wins against Indiana and Army. Basically, the offense hasn’t had much consistency. In the losses, the defense has gotten shelled.

Now I want to turn my attention to West Virginia. My first look here is at the rushing numbers for WVU and its opposition so far this season game-by-game:

Opponent Name WVU Rushing Opponent rushing

Marshall ------------309----- ------------147(4.6)
E. Washington------410 -----------------79(3.8)
Maryland -----------361 -----------------134(4.1)
E. Carolina ---------152 ----------------42(1.8)
Miss State ----------330 -----------------113(3.1)
Syracuse------------ 457------------ -----116(3.3)


We all know how well the Mountaineers run. Slaton and White are the scariest running combo in the country. They will break the big one sooner or later each game. Its also usually not a one time occurrence. You can take those rushing stats against how you want to. We know that WVI is involved in many blowouts so obviously other teams are not pounding the ball. That’s why I showed the YPC for each game so you could get a better feel for how solid the WVU defense is against the run.

Lets look back at WVU’s season in a quick scope here. All I want to concentrate on is their defense. They have come under fire for some shoddy performances on defense. I agree that their defense is not the best. I also know that it’s the pass defense that kills them. Many cappers here made those points before the Maryland game. It almost came true as Hollenbach nearly passed them into a back-door cover. ECU passed all over them as well and that’s why the game was in doubt till quite late.

I am none too impressed with the Uconn QB’s. They are downright not good. The only time they have put up numbers are in come from behind scenarios. They may put up numbers in this game, but it will be late. Perry Patterson was 9-21 for 146 yards last week. That included one huge gain for a TD. I wouldn’t say the Uconn QB is better than Patterson. I would say they merit the same recognition.

As for the Uconn run game, I think WVU can hold it down. They may have a big run or a have a drive in the game but overall I expect a solid effort from the WVU defense against the run. They have done it so far this year and I expect no less.

We know WVU is going to run the ball. Previous history shows they can do it against Uconn. Navy showed a run oriented offense can do it in this spot. The Huskies run defense is just plain poor. WVU should get 300-400 yards on ground in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if it got well over 400.

The WVU pass game has gotten better and better each week since Pat White has started. He is still prone to picks at times but he makes better decisions and is becoming more accurate. Big plays out of the passing game cannot be discounted.

Here’s a quick recap of last years game:

WVU won handily 45-13. They dominated with 22-9 edge in first downs. They did okay on ground for them (57-228) while completely shutting down Uconn ground wise(38-12).

I think you get my drift here. This is matching strengths against weaknesses. There is a reason this line has jumped from 17 to 22.5. Yeah, it’s a public favorite and those can fall flat on their faces on Friday nights but not this time my friends. I wouldn’t lay much chalk with WVU against teams that can pass. That’s a no-no this year as you will see in 11 days or so with the UL-WVU game. This isn’t a look ahead for WVU yet as they will have almost 2 weeks off after to prepare for the contest. Uconn may want to bill this as its GOY but Marshall did same thing and look what happened to them when they played WVU.

No coincidence which teams have covered against WVU this year. The two teams with decent passing games. This Uconn squad will not be a decent passing team anytime this year.

I expect WVU to score often and early and expect them to get short fields with turnovers. This total will go well over and WVU should roll them. I am quite confident on this game. I don’t play side and total often but I love this game and think it will be the easiest winner this week. The only thing I can hit myself on is not playing this earlier. No worries, it still covers.

Good luck all.

WVU 49-10

WVU –22.5 –108 4 UNITS
WVU/UCONN over 48 –105 2 UNITS.
 
Last edited:
Is there a Reader's Digest version of this post?
glasses10.gif


I'm on the Mountaineers as well, . . . . er, . . . I mean, I like WVU as well.
beer.gif
 
That's an excellent writeup. I tend to agree, but I have plenty of plays already...

GL, and I'll pull for you...
 
redbearde said:
That's an excellent writeup. I tend to agree, but I have plenty of plays already...

GL, and I'll pull for you...

Thank you, I even used spell check for once.:smiley_acbe:
 
SoonerBS said:
Is there a Reader's Digest version of this post?
glasses10.gif


I'm on the Mountaineers as well, . . . . er, . . . I mean, I like WVU as well.
beer.gif

Moving on up from Sheep eh?

Thank you sir.
 
B.A.R. said:
Thank you, I even used spell check for once.:smiley_acbe:

aw, usually I only rip on spelling and grammar when someone's being a dick...

like when I'm reading covers...

say, I put ctg's url in my profile...think I'll get banned? or is that not going too far?
 
No, thats just fine. I have had it in mine and others have as well. Its allowed in the profile. I have seen much worse.
 
BAR - Nice writeup! With you on WVU bro. Made a 1st Half play on WVU -13. GL this week. :shake:
 
I got a buddy that bets and he goes to WVA. He told me that he heard WVA is gonna try to AIR it out tomrrow night!
 
goodluck bar. you and denny are both on this so it must be a decent side. :Wacka%20Wacka:
 
I think your over is a good bet.

I also know that the entire board and the entire betting world is on West Virginia, and I've accepted that-maybe you will all win. I personally think that UConn and the points is a great bet, but hell, I haven't even decided to post it yet in my own thread. I'm not here to lecture you guys on the game...BUT...

If you honestly think that Wake Forest "cruised" to victory over UConn, there is no way in hell that you watched or even listened to the game. UConn dominated the entire game, sans Hernandez INT TD, and was done in by a lot of things going wrong at once. The final score might look like a blowout, but the last TD scored with about 10 seconds left as Wake was trying to kill clock. UConn and Wake played about even that game.
 
Seabass said:
I think your over is a good bet.

I also know that the entire board and the entire betting world is on West Virginia, and I've accepted that-maybe you will all win. I personally think that UConn and the points is a great bet, but hell, I haven't even decided to post it yet in my own thread. I'm not here to lecture you guys on the game...BUT...

If you honestly think that Wake Forest "cruised" to victory over UConn, there is no way in hell that you watched or even listened to the game. UConn dominated the entire game, sans Hernandez INT TD, and was done in by a lot of things going wrong at once. The final score might look like a blowout, but the last TD scored with about 10 seconds left as Wake was trying to kill clock. UConn and Wake played about even that game.

First of all, I understand totally your insights on the Wake game.

I wouldn't say Uconn dominated. I can only go by numbers. I do understand the late score. The term "cruised" was just put in to describe the final score. All the fault there is placed on myself. That would indicate something else happened. Uconn QB's are garbage so INT returns should be expected. I think this Uconn team in whole is garbage. I expect WVU to win by 35 plus and honestly have thought about going more. The Mountaineer defense sucks ass defending the pass. Luckily, Uconn can't pass that well. Thats a huge premise on this game. At the end of the year you will see that WVU covered all or most of their games that were against teams with shitty passing offenses. The teams that can pass cover against them more times than not.

Best of luck tonight.:cheers:
 
public's due to hit a big game.. after nfl denver and bears on sun and mon... plus i dont think vegas cares about losing on fri's with 100 games to get it back with over the weekend
 
GOD DAMNIT BAR!!!

i just played ucon (i never win cfb so it will be a suprise if i do)

maybe wvu can win by 23! (i have +23.5)
 
Good Luck BAR. I respectfully disagree though. I guess the good news is I waited and grabbed +24 and you have -22.5.

Personally I think WV was somewhat luck with how the games at miss State turned out and ECU. Both teams left many points off the board and WVU cant continue to simply luckout like that. As well as the WVU offense hasnt really been impressive on the road... 27 @ ECU and 42 @ Miss State but 14 came in the final 3 minutes. So while I agree not great performances for UConn vs USF and navy both dual QB threats worst case seems to be 38-41 points. For me I owuld expect UConn to score about 17 points here meaning I have some wiggle room. WV in a bad spot with the Louisville game on deck and UConn playing on homecoming IMO. I wouldnt be suprised to see this game being competitive. The Mountaineers thrive when getting a short field and Bonislawski is aware of that and has just one pick in 3 games. So as long as they dont hand field position to WV I want to take my chances that WV will go 75 or 80 yards 5 or 6 times tonite...

GL
 
Understandable arguements Nut.

I have decided since Terrapins game(even though I won a shitload on the game) to base my bets on WVU in these categories: Teams that pass well and those that don't.

Uconn doesn't. With the weather I expect Bons(we'll call him that) to cough it up a time or two. Punts may drop well short for 1/2 the game both ways. If Uconn gets more than 14 I'll be impressed. If WVU gets les than 40 I'll be stunned. I do understand their outputs on road. I kinda discount the look ahead. Your two best players are Sophomores who gotta love the primetime action. This UL game is also in Novemer. Not like its next Thursday.


Best of luck...always enjoy the opposing thoughts.
 
good luck bar hell of a write up,i hope wv:spank: also liking the over in this game.bcs will be watching!!!!!!!
 
I think what we forgot about in a lookahead situation isnt the obvious. Its the college kids simply overlooking there opponent. They know UConn isnt a good team , they know there 24 point favs and alot of times these kids just show up and expect it to be that easy. While UConn has a ton of emotion for them with homecoming and being on ESPN. Now does this decide the game? Clearly not but it gives one team an edge and take some edge away from another. I highly doubt cause a game in 10 days away and in a different calender month it isnt all thses guys are thinking about...thats JMHO. That game on 11/2 cant get here quick enough for them.

See thats the thing with Bons everyone forgets about him. He was supposed to be a very solid passingQB to follow in Olarovsky footsteps...the spelling is very questionable! He can throw the ball. While weather could play a role as long as its not killing UConn FGs its really not what I was talking about...last year UConn was punting the ball 35 yards from there 5 or 10 yd line...that wont happen tonite IMO.

I really dont expect seeing how WVU has played on the road for them to break 38..clearly it could happen but only if short fields are given to them. If ECU and Miss State had any clue they would have both put up 20 something so I betting( over 12.5 UConn team) that the Huskies somewhat underrated offense score at least 14. I do say underrated cause if you look past 3 games moving the ball hasnt been all that much of an issue... thinking 31-17 type game...

thats my whole take! just wanted to clarify my stance... GL
 
Fellas...

I don't do huge write-ups to lose..

Pay attention

2-0-1

+5 units

SMODOD
 
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