Friday Night(11-10-06) NBA Selections and Analysis

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
43-25-5 +14.49 units

I go hard on myself in capping hoops. I expect success with the time and effort I put into it. Pretty solid start to the season. Up 2900 in 2 weeks time is satisfying but I feel like I have left a few plays out there and burned myself on a couple. Some bad luck on some and some good luck on others evens itself out over time(unless you possess the 'curse of the killa'). The league is really odd this year. I knew the east would be wide open. Washington, Jersey and Cleveland really could represent the East in finals. Crazy. The west is a bit more like usual. Utah has been most impressive so far.

As for the hometown team, I hope they do something by all-star break to shake the team up a bit. I knew they would start slow but I don't know if they can grow enough. We are spoiled around here though. Two problems with this team. First, they need to get uptempo. No reason not to. It was talked about and of course they are just walking it up. I hate that. Second, the interior defense is awful. Dice is not a good defender. Shhed and Nazr can block shots but their on the ball defense is not as good as some may think. Now, the bench was iffy last year. This year, with Flip, Delfino, Dice and Maxiell they are an excellent group. The style and inside defense need to change. My solution-Sheed, Delfino and a first round pick for KG(lol). That would really change things. Will not happen but don't be suprised to hear those rumors in a few months.

Okay, Friday lines are here. I projected my lines on Wed and they are pretty much dead on. I valued HOU at 8.5 instead of 10.5 and had Lakers 4.5. Also had Wiz 4.5 but that line is inflated due to last night.

First, some general thoughts:

I will not play any Detroit games for another few weeks. Very inconsistent. I think Lakers win easily. Off a loss, this scrappy Lakers team will be up for the game and should play well. Kobias has to chase Rip around. Thats the factor working for Stons. Its DET's natuire to come out and control this game though(lol). BTW, game is off board now at Pinnacle.

Portland catching 3 from a New Orleans team on a back to back?. Hmm

The linesmakers actually priced Utah right. I was hoping they may throw out a foolish -1 or PK.

Alright...plays

Toronto vs Atlanta

Sam Mitchell wants hic club to get 100 FGA's each game. They have been doing a solid job. Its something to see the difference in FG attempts each game. I think their shooting will start improving and this is going to become a very high-scoring team.

The Hawks may not impress anyone scoring wise but in an uptempo affair in TOR they have the guys to get some points. Its not always about a team when handicapping totals...it can be the opponent. I think TOR dictates the pace at home.

Two awful defenses in my opinion(especially Raptors) hava a shootout. Number is 6-7 points low IMO

Toronto-Atlanta Over 200 -111


Philadelphia vs Denver

First of all...can you believe that Denver hasn't won yet this season? Me neither. This team is better than that and I think they will start to rebound soon. Looks like they got comfortable Wednesday against Knicks and got blindsided late. Kmart is out again(whats new) but he hadn't done much in my opinion anyway.

The Sixers started hot but have faltered last 2 games. This is a below .500 team still in my opinion. I was shocked they started as they did but much credit to their players. This line should be a PK IMO.

Denver is another team with a more 'offensive' system. They want to get shots up in the first 14 seconnds of the shot clok. What this does is make them more uptempo and use their strenghts. Other than JR Smith this team is lacking from perimeter. Now, with a running style, this makes baskets easier to come by.

I think Philly will adhere to that running style. Guys like AI, Iggy, Ashton and Willie green have no problem getting out into transition. I think it will be a fun exciting game and Denver is the better team and will get off the scneid.

Denver+3 -105
Denver-Philly Over 207 -105 (2 units)
ADD: DENVER ML +128

Best of luck. I would say this will be my plays. No need to force even though its a big card. Will re-evalute the other matches tomorrow afternoon and will update at that time. Leave any questions and thoughts and I will get back to you.
 
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snagged that ATL over @ 199.5 earlier. Not sure about the philly game yet but tough not like overs with these teams involved. Think the Utah Over could have value cause Boston doesnt defend at all and Wallyheating up lately...the one I like is Charlotte-1. Catch Sea in 3rd road game in 4 days , part of a 5 game trip and versus an imrpoving Char team. Sea found a way to lose in Miami then Orlando...GL
 
Nut,

My problem with Boston is if Peirce or Wally isn't shooting well they have a tough time scoring. They both played well Wed but they didn't get over 100 till the extra session. Granted, the Jazz on the ball defense isn't too good.

I agree about Seattle. I made it a pick and was hoping they would win last night to give me a point or two. Two really tough losses in Florida. Bobcats are playing pretty well this year. They seem to fade in sedon halves though.
 
Absolutely agree with the Boston scenario. Wally has played a couple good games now (33 & 35)and Pierce usually finds a way to score(get to the line). The thing about the Charlotte game was they also only scored about 45 1st H points and then the end of the game they just ran up and down putting eachother on the line...I think Utah and Boston could get to the line alot. Hoping to see it drop though closer to the mid190's. Just a lean...Char went to the line 52 times and Celts 31.

With Seattle its scary they are 1-4 basically blowing 4 games in the 4th Q if I recall correctly. That bad game is gonna come soon and with matchups in ATL on Saturday and NJ on Monday it should happen this weekend. Charlotte with a frontline of Ely , Jumaine Jones and Brizec abused SEA last year winning by 13 leading by 25 after 3. I think the Bobcats have the size to disrupt Sea shooting...should be interesting would love to see a PK here..GL
 
BAr no p[icks for tonight? Uberly agree board, I'm looking to trail you tonight! Can't cap any games
 
Nah DuY...no picks tonight..need a night off..hate Thursdays in NBA and don't see anything good enough to wager on
 
Denver +3 and Atl/Tor O200 are my 2 favorite plays on the board. But what are we missing with this Over? I know a few squares that are in love with it already, and this line actually dropped a few pts at Greek, it opened at 203 or 204, can't remember which. I mean this will be a 90% public total, are we being reeled in here?
 
Atlanta has played 4 games and 1 has gone over in ot. Toronto has actually been a little inconsistent on their totals. Maybe thats what they are seeing.
 
There is always the chance ATL lays an egg here ..if you liked Toronto the other nite you have to love them here at the same price. The key is the tempo and pace..

Atlanta scored 75 @ Philly , 90 @ Cle in regulation thanks to a big comeback and Lue's basket with near triple zeroes on the clock....I jumped on it and I think I may have to reexamine it as Tor is probably the better way to go here....good point Tuck.. now that I think about this I could see 105-90 remember ATL hit 9 of 12 from 3 in Cle to get there points...I changed my mind....for now
 
I banged NY +10.5 off the bat on the open at Pinny.

Your comments to start your thread are typical for all of us who bet the NBA. There are so many betting opportunities out there, and it's only human nature to second guess those that you "should've made" and those that you did make and were completely wrong. My advice is to get over it. I had 'over' in Sea/Orl last night. The game landed something like 60 points UNDER the total. You think I give a shit? Hell no. I went 2-1 that night..haha....

The NBA can eat away at your soul if you let. I know that may sound dramatic to those who don't do what we do, but you know what I'm sayin. I need your insight on the Pistons as much as you need my insights on the Sixers.

A fair line in Philly on Friday? Sixers -1.5.

Mazel Tov BAR.
 
Nut-I will probably be on the Bos-Utah over, as well. Okur is going to force Ratliff and Olowokandi to leave the paint where they will struggle to defend him...Kirilenko actually left the court in tears the last time he tried to cover Pierce...World is hot as hell (this is not a pun, i swear)...and Rivers seems to want to get the offense going first (playing Telfair a lot) as opposed to the D (West at PG, Rondo at PG)...
 
The NBA is brutal....I have enough premature grey hairs I just keeping adding to them...every big leads get cut down every total you sweat out ....torture by far the tighest lines in any sport IMO.

Probably give the NYK a go....back to smh yeah I talked myself out of a big play on Cleveland tonite...

Seabass ...gonnna watch that total. Okur is one of my fav players..okay he is on my fantasy squad but still love his game..I dont think any of Boston starting 5 can defend...lot of work and time....

have some late stuff going tonite and really hoping RUTGERS pulls of this upset...GL
 
I think if you look at shots allowed which I do pay attention to with totals you will see ATL only surrending about 75 per game...so I think I iwll pass on that total for now....
 
Big AL,
Doesn't Atlantas current defensive effort concern you a little for the over, they have held some pretty good offensive teams to lower scores. Seems like the over is associated with the Hawks of old that didnt play defense, they aren't putting up a ton of points either. But it is still early in the season im sure they will revert to their old selves shortly. I think they give a good defensive effort tonight on the road and win by a score of 97-91. GOOD LUCK
 
SDcharger said:
good luck

do you like the lakers to cover 4.5?

Is the line back up offshore? It had been off the board from about 7:00 last night till 8:00 thos morning. It opened 3 at Pinnacle. I had my line set at 4.5 so I think this is dead on. With it being OTB I wonder if DET has an injury situation..
 
Troutman said:
Big AL,
Doesn't Atlantas current defensive effort concern you a little for the over, they have held some pretty good offensive teams to lower scores. Seems like the over is associated with the Hawks of old that didnt play defense, they aren't putting up a ton of points either. But it is still early in the season im sure they will revert to their old selves shortly. I think they give a good defensive effort tonight on the road and win by a score of 97-91. GOOD LUCK

Questions like this are inevitable. Obviously all the numbers will not add up. Toronto is at home so they will be able to dictate their pace a bit more. I think Atlanta will end up at the same pace which should make this the highest scoring Hawks game this year. Raptoes are also worst defense the Hawks have faced.
 
bad gambler said:
GL BAR with you on the Nuggets - should notch up their first win tonight

I certainly think so as well. The West is funny right now. Denver, Phoenix and Dallas a combined 2-13 I believe
 
Killa said:
Denver +3 and Atl/Tor O200 are my 2 favorite plays on the board. But what are we missing with this Over? I know a few squares that are in love with it already, and this line actually dropped a few pts at Greek, it opened at 203 or 204, can't remember which. I mean this will be a 90% public total, are we being reeled in here?

I think people look at numbers. Toronot has underperformed totals wise to the Over so far this year. The system is starting to catch more and more each game.
 
smh212 said:
I banged NY +10.5 off the bat on the open at Pinny.

Your comments to start your thread are typical for all of us who bet the NBA. There are so many betting opportunities out there, and it's only human nature to second guess those that you "should've made" and those that you did make and were completely wrong. My advice is to get over it. I had 'over' in Sea/Orl last night. The game landed something like 60 points UNDER the total. You think I give a shit? Hell no. I went 2-1 that night..haha....

The NBA can eat away at your soul if you let. I know that may sound dramatic to those who don't do what we do, but you know what I'm sayin. I need your insight on the Pistons as much as you need my insights on the Sixers.

A fair line in Philly on Friday? Sixers -1.5.

Mazel Tov BAR.

Really was temted on the Knicks. That line is 2 points higher than my line. I just can't stomach that team. I think as the season progresses they will garner more and more value for awhile. Maybe if the line creeps up more I will think harder about it.
 
SportsNut said:
The NBA is brutal....I have enough premature grey hairs I just keeping adding to them...every big leads get cut down every total you sweat out ....torture by far the tighest lines in any sport IMO.

Probably give the NYK a go....back to smh yeah I talked myself out of a big play on Cleveland tonite...

Seabass ...gonnna watch that total. Okur is one of my fav players..okay he is on my fantasy squad but still love his game..I dont think any of Boston starting 5 can defend...lot of work and time....

have some late stuff going tonite and really hoping RUTGERS pulls of this upset...GL

Okur is heck of a player. If he ever got intiative on the defensive end he could be something more special. We knew he had all the talent in the world here but the minutes just were not there. Honestly, the DET euro scouting department stole this guy. What a talent.
 
I hear you about Toronto and their pace, I just think that Atlanta slows it down enough to keep it under, You are the professional, so your knowledge is much appreciated.
 
Since I like Charlotte tonite I must now reconsider - Raymond Felton is OUT with bruised ribs and Adam Morrison will start ath the 2 in his place.

Just a heads up....

Troutman I think you have valid concerns in that total. The key is does ATL keep it competitive. I think Tor could run away with this and see it just slid under the total. Raps are gonna crack 100 probably 105...I could see 105 -90...GL
 
i cant do denver with You. i did however Just come Across This:

DENVER without KMART over The past Two seasons: 29-9.


Good luck Tonight comrade.


'an_horse'
 
appreciate it Mac...gl tonight

Well, up in Canada, the Raps are not scoring. Bosh is horid and they are shooting 36 percent. Atlanta is holding up their end of the bargain

In Philly, Denver is holding onto a lead and game is on pace to hit the over.
 
Remember you asked me if our fade-worthy friend was on the Toronto Over? Bingoooo, lol. Although you probably already knew that after the 1H produced 85 points.
 
Killa said:
Remember you asked me if our fade-worthy friend was on the Toronto Over? Bingoooo, lol. Although you probably already knew that after the 1H produced 85 points.

Swear to god man I thought that after Raptors tallied 11 points in first qtr. Fuck!!!

LMAO
 
Shit, 62-point 3Q gave you a fighting chance... Pulling for ya
 
haha...lmao...he's the Don of NBA ;)

Routine win...

Denver is coming in..late push for Over there..prolly not but who knows..either way a winning night
 
I added DEN ML as well for a unit +128

I meant to holla..been kinda out of it all day...

Either way...sexy is back and ready to roll into college football Saturday. NBA card Saturday isn't great. Got one i like and maybe another..we'll see what happens.
 
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