NHL Picks for Today
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. St. Louis Blues
It’s already clear from basic matchup considerations that Tampa Bay will win. As evident in their 4-1 victory over St. Louis on December 22, the Lightning have a great outlook against St. Louis because they are the only team in this matchup that defends. Whereas the Blues allow the second-most goals, Tampa Bay has the third-best goal-scoring defense. It's also not like the Lightning are a defense-only team; they score the third-most goals. Tampa Bay will find it much easier to score goals tonight and is therefore justifiably favored heavily.
There are multiple additional factors that justify the expectation of a multi-goal Lightning victory tonight. First, the Blues are in a fade spot because they are coming off a shutout win. Before their last game, they had accumulated four shutout victories. After each such victory, they lost their following game. Most recently, they lost to lowly Chicago by four goals after shutting out Montreal.
Second, the Lightning are playing super well right now. They have won eleven games in a row, with eight of them coming by multiple goals. Their defense has been elite, allowing two goals or fewer – even against elite Colorado – in each of their last four games. So, considerations of form must amplify our optimism toward Tampa Bay’s outlook tonight. Given how well their defense is playing, they will easily score enough goals against St. Louis’ atrocious defense to win by multiple goals.
Third, the Blues miss key center Robert Thomas, who has eleven goals and 22 assists on the season and is his team’s co-leader in goals and leader in assists. St. Louis won its first game without him, but this was predictable because players commonly step up in their first game without their key injured teammate. With those players now returning to their usual form, an already losing St. Louis team that scores the eighth-fewest goals despite his major contributions will be significantly worse without him.
For the above reasons, count on Tampa Bay to win by two or more goals tonight.
Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche
It is obvious from Colorado’s 33-4-8 record that this is a dominant team. It is, however, also obvious from its last game – a loss – that the Avalanche don’t always dominant. The key is to identify the spots in which they reliably dominate their opponent. Tonight is one of those spots because the Avalanche are playing at home after they lost their last game.
When playing at home after losing their last game or their last home game, the Avalanche are 6-0-1. In this spot, they only failed to beat the 28-15-4 Hurricanes and 29-13-3 Lightning by multiple goals. Otherwise, they beat Ottawa by six goals, Florida by four goals, Montreal by five goals, New Jersey by four goals, and Boston by three goals.
Thus, they have proven to be solid in this spot even against good teams and, of course, against lesser teams. Nashville is, obviously, quite remote from the caliber of Carolina and Tampa Bay. At 22-20-4, the Predators are mediocre and are therefore just the team for Colorado to dominate in its golden spot tonight.
| Matchup | Pick | Odds | Confidence Level | Sportsbook |
| Lightning vs. Blues | Lightning -1.5 | +145 | Highest | BetOnline |
| Predators vs. Avalanche | Avalanche -1.5 | -120 | Highest | BetOnline |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. St. Louis Blues
It’s already clear from basic matchup considerations that Tampa Bay will win. As evident in their 4-1 victory over St. Louis on December 22, the Lightning have a great outlook against St. Louis because they are the only team in this matchup that defends. Whereas the Blues allow the second-most goals, Tampa Bay has the third-best goal-scoring defense. It's also not like the Lightning are a defense-only team; they score the third-most goals. Tampa Bay will find it much easier to score goals tonight and is therefore justifiably favored heavily.
There are multiple additional factors that justify the expectation of a multi-goal Lightning victory tonight. First, the Blues are in a fade spot because they are coming off a shutout win. Before their last game, they had accumulated four shutout victories. After each such victory, they lost their following game. Most recently, they lost to lowly Chicago by four goals after shutting out Montreal.
Second, the Lightning are playing super well right now. They have won eleven games in a row, with eight of them coming by multiple goals. Their defense has been elite, allowing two goals or fewer – even against elite Colorado – in each of their last four games. So, considerations of form must amplify our optimism toward Tampa Bay’s outlook tonight. Given how well their defense is playing, they will easily score enough goals against St. Louis’ atrocious defense to win by multiple goals.
Third, the Blues miss key center Robert Thomas, who has eleven goals and 22 assists on the season and is his team’s co-leader in goals and leader in assists. St. Louis won its first game without him, but this was predictable because players commonly step up in their first game without their key injured teammate. With those players now returning to their usual form, an already losing St. Louis team that scores the eighth-fewest goals despite his major contributions will be significantly worse without him.
For the above reasons, count on Tampa Bay to win by two or more goals tonight.
Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche
It is obvious from Colorado’s 33-4-8 record that this is a dominant team. It is, however, also obvious from its last game – a loss – that the Avalanche don’t always dominant. The key is to identify the spots in which they reliably dominate their opponent. Tonight is one of those spots because the Avalanche are playing at home after they lost their last game.
When playing at home after losing their last game or their last home game, the Avalanche are 6-0-1. In this spot, they only failed to beat the 28-15-4 Hurricanes and 29-13-3 Lightning by multiple goals. Otherwise, they beat Ottawa by six goals, Florida by four goals, Montreal by five goals, New Jersey by four goals, and Boston by three goals.
Thus, they have proven to be solid in this spot even against good teams and, of course, against lesser teams. Nashville is, obviously, quite remote from the caliber of Carolina and Tampa Bay. At 22-20-4, the Predators are mediocre and are therefore just the team for Colorado to dominate in its golden spot tonight.