Friday NBA Thoughts

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Lets get down to buziness..(2-3 last nite & 2-0 2nd H's)

Houston @ Charlotte

As you follow teams you notice little trends such as "bad teams " like Portland and Charlotte seem to only cover spreads when the win SU and pull off upsets. So it something to keep in the back of your mind IMO on these games. Sort of like how in the NFL recently teams on Primetime do the same win SU and points are useless.

The Rockets simply are not the same team home and away. You can see it there record and furthermore you can see it in the respect oddsmakers give them in there lines. Before the SA loss they were 7-0 ATS past 7 as Home DOgs of bewteen 5 -10 points.


<LI class=more>Bobcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. <LI class=more>Bobcats are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. <LI class=more>Bobcats are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 games following a ATS loss.--Over is 10-3 in Bobcats last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.

<LI class=morehot>Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. <LI class=morehot>Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Hous has been dogged in 6 of 9 away and its highest lines were -4.5 @ Memphis & NYK which they both barely covered. The Spurs in a huge revenge spot were the only time Bobcats were more then +4.5 at home. Basically with the fact Bobcats got rolled last game I like them here at home but what I really like is THE OVER...Past history bewteen these two is tough to use but Char is 3-1 SU.

Of 9 away games the Rockets have allowed 90 ++ in seven and have also socred 90 ++ in seven. While Char is basically in the same boat in 9 games with 6++ above 90 for and against...

Over 179 -115 Houston (medium)
Bobcats +5.5 (Lean)

Detriot @ Orlando
On there recent road trip the Magic opened alot of eyes. However that is NOT what is responsible for this spread. While it might slide under the radar the Pistons dont get much respect. They have only been a 10 pt fav once athome and lost SU! They are generally catching points on the road.....+7 is big enough to make you think in Det the Mavs would be at least a PK. They were 2.5 dogs to the Wiz , they were only -4 @ Philly when the 76ers played without AI , Webber and Hunter and they were dogged on there entire west coast trip. The flip side to that is most people dont realize that ORL has one of the highest Home Court advantages at home in the NBA cause of there recent performance there. Typically though ORL when playing a good team gets a line a little fat.

So with them off a long road trip and Det with a somewhat easy win in Dallas....the points look good about 2 pts to many....in fact Orl is 2-2 l4 at home vs DET with only 2 pt wins....They are a team that should be able to contain Howard and have the edges IMO everywhere else...outside of the bench

--Magic are 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. NBA Central.

<LI class=more>Underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.--Pistons are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Orlando

Play : Pistons +4.5 +100 try for +5 (Large) ML +180 (value) Under 186 (lean)

Port @ Indy
What has gotten into the Blazers this road trip? Based on recent matchups Indy has owned these Blazers and just beat them 11/28 in Portland. Which scares me cause it is tough playing teams in short spans. This is Indy biggest number of the season to date and it comes on the heels of a huge game in Cle tmrw and off a solid home win vs Indy off a long road trip. If they were to be flat it would be here....you would expect a great public backing on Indy here so I would be cautious. Especially since Pacers just went from -2 t Orl which really was to CHEAP and had tehm undervalued to there biggest line of the season which is probably overvaluing them. Everything outside of situation points to Indy here...

Looking back Zach played miserably last time 11 of 27 so he might have that in the back of his head. As well the fact that despite there success Indy only destroyed Port once in the past 3 years at home. They were usually about -4.5 to -8 pts pt favs and lost by 8 and 9....could be one of the rare games Port backdoors someone...

Lean: Blazers +8

Suns @ Boston
Before anyone thinks Wally is OUT read this:
Wally Szczerbiak missed his second straight game Wednesday with a sprained ankle, according to the AP. He's hoping to return to action Friday

While some might disagree Boston and NJ are very similiar teams. In general the Celts are probably a 1 pt or so weaker. NJ has soem nice names but also some hols off the bench and with shooting. One thing I know is if they put Marion on Pierce he will do his rendition of Vince carter who went 13 of 17.

To speculate on the Suns fatigue level you cant really say. Its not so much about the physical fatigue but the fact that both teams give it everything they had to know have to play a team that was resting after you left it all on the court is tough IMO. Its even tougher when you favored and most cover a point spread. I think must would agree the Suns didnt beat NJ the Nets failed to shut the door on Phoenix and the better team (generally speaking)won. I would expect Boston torun with Telfair psuhing the ball but I dont want to get involved in a total and the 2nd H is really when the Suns should be flat.

Heavy Lean +5 -110 & ML +178

Wash @ Philly

The line is just coming out but in a series dominanted by home teams(Phi -1) I want to see whats up with AI and Webber. AI is questionable and Webber had trouble with his foot on Wed , neither praticed yesterday. If everyone is healthy the over looks enticing as well... be back on this...

LAC @ SA

Despite LAC road woes they opened this to high....with how SA has played as chalk I owuld be cautious to lay this number. LAC made strides last season in ending teh Spurs dominanace. A team like the Clips is not that good on the road yet manages to be the fav in half its early away games...they have notcaught more then 5 this season.....

The Clipps ahve struggled defensively on the road allwoing all but 1 to score 100++ and SA offense has played better with Manu back. So since I lean LAC at better then 8 the over seems to be the play as well...

Play: Over 188 -110 (small) wait on possible better #

Utah @ Minny

It seems to me the Wolves continue to get no respect. On paper Utah may appear better but to be road chalk?? Whether situationally aided or not the Jazz have been awful there past 2 away . Furthermore the fact they were catching 4.5 pts vs teams like Seattle and Sac not so long ago tells me they are still unproven away. This Utah team was even dogged at home to LAC...which Minny did beat.....it seems alot of teams go from undervalued to way overvalued real quick.

Its close but I have this game as a PK and certainly the public will favor Utah creating value IMO on the Wolves...who are quitely 7-1 ATS past 8...

What I really like here is the OVER despite past history. Wolves games have been finding 195 ++ at home and Utah consistenly has allowed 100 ++ and we know they can score.....Utah is the better team on a neutral court but I dont think they are the better team playing on Minnys floor...

Play: (wait) Over 190-110 & Minny (heavy lean)

Tor @ Chi

Actually the more I look at the tougher the game. Raps are ATS machines when it comes to getting points and Bulls look like a machine right now. They have dominanted the Raps recently winning at least the past 10 meetings.....

My biggest concern is Bulls are shaded abit high here...theyhave blown out three bad teams..Bos , Wiz and NYK...Wiz are a bad road team....the raps as I said have become cover machines and I think maybe should only be about +7 here.....are they not better then Boston & NYK??

Lean : Raps ...despite stopping the run & gun offense the over still looks enticing...Toronto should be mid 90's or so and Bull should crack a 100....it just seems worse case your looking a t about 200 but at 204 where is teh value??

Memphis @ Milw

This was the game that stood out quickly as I eyeballed the games last nite. It was simply oneof those lines that struck me as being OFF. Milw have been a great fade as chalk just 2-6 ATS. Really I dont see these teams being anything but equal. Bucks had some nice wins on there road trip but Grizz are gritty and have some depth at Forward which Milw really doesnt. Look at there last game they starters wnt the distance. I guess you have to be cautious with Villaneuva 's impending return. However if its such an uncertainity surrounding his comeback how can he be effective right away?? Grizz are 7-4 ATS away with 2 non covers bya 1 point...They assume Fratello's identity IMO by being blue collar and scrappy thins you cant measure....

-Grizz are 8-1 ATS past 9 meetings
-Bucks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
-Grizzlies are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. NBA Central.
-Bucks are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record

Not the greatest explanation .....

Grizzlies (bought) +6 (XLarge ) ML +186 (value) Under 193 (lean)
 
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Late nite thoughts:

Miami @ Denver

Lets keep this simple.....Denver is always tough at home and they are off an embarassing loss as 12 pt chalk. Miami is playing its 3rd away game in 4 nites. They last one being in Sac went to OT and a team to heavily dependent on Wade saw him play well above 40minutes last nite. As well as Father Time Alonzo Mourning playing 35 minutes which I would gues is a season high. That was one of those games you cant lose when you lead from start to finish....so just like Pho they let it all hang out and might have to pay for it here

The only thing I dont like so much is the fact they are going from +4.5 to -8.5 but I will hope situation dictates it....and that Miami will inconsistent bench contributions will lose it the 2nd H in the altitude....

Play: Nuggets -8.5 -110 (Large) & Lean 1st Half over

Atl @ LAL
One team is OFF an upset win as DD dogs and the other is off a brutal home loss to a shorthnaded team. However right now I choose to stay away from thise game. Based on the fact LAL does not appear to be a good bounce back team and ATL is a solid road dog this season.

Hawks are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Hawks are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Lakers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points
Lakers are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. Eastern Conference.

NO @ Sea

Its to early to guess what SEA will be w/o Allen shortterm. The near term it probably wont be much of a factor but eventually it should catch up to them.With NO getting some offense lately and Seattle well being Seattle.....

Play: Over 191 -107 (medium)
 
I like the o180 in charlotte, magic -4', grizz +5', grizz ml, and grizz o192.5 so far...

tempted by cats ml, raptors ml, hornets ml, and jazz/over or jazz team total over
 
What I am missing with Orlando?? I remain cautious to put the Pistons in.. sort of on the fence with the total in Memphis just gonna be a no play for me.......

Taking Cats ATS is sort of useless...Raps ATS I like ...ML...might be the spot where something illogicl occurs....

Really like that Jazz over....

Trying to solidify this stuff now...
 
smart move staying away from LAL for now - Kobe's ankle and the mental strength of his teammates are concerns.

I'm with you on DEN and looking hard at Memphis right now. However, I'll be on ORL because I think DET shot their wad last night and will have a letdown. GL :cheers:
 
FYI, Chauncey may be a little banged up:

<table class="wire" id="dgrdWire" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="date">12/08/06
12:04 PM</td><td class="title">Injuries</td><td class="text">NBA: Detroit's Chauncey Billups was bothered by a hamstring injury Thursday night in Dallas and may be limited by it on Friday.</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Good work here Nut. I tend to agree with you on a few of these and am on Toronto myself...

Thanks bro....I think I will just sit the philly game out......I think AI is detrimental to there success at this point....

How is life in Costa Rica....heard alot of stories about that scene...
 
xpression syst_m said:
FYI, Chauncey may be a little banged up:

<TABLE class=wire id=dgrdWire style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=date>12/08/06
12:04 PM
</TD><TD class=title>Injuries</TD><TD class=text>NBA: Detroit's Chauncey Billups was bothered by a hamstring injury Thursday night in Dallas and may be limited by it on Friday.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Thats good info...

Only thing is I think this opened at 4.5 even before the Dallas game..and when they lost Rip in LAL they stepped it up big...

Definetly something O may have to look into being cautious on now...
 
mr21 said:
smart move staying away from LAL for now - Kobe's ankle and the mental strength of his teammates are concerns.

I'm with you on DEN and looking hard at Memphis right now. However, I'll be on ORL because I think DET shot their wad last night and will have a letdown. GL :cheers:

Kobe and AI just command the ball to much instead of letting the ball find them....they just dont realize at the end of the team will be better and there stats will be the same basically..

Not so sure I agree with DET playing above there head last nite....sort of the classic situation after a couple soft opponents to rise up and play your A game....but who knows as Dan said Billups looks to be LIMITED.....

GL
 
Denver and Memphis look good. Bulls matchup so well with the Raps I expect my boys to blow them out. Bulls great at avoiding the moose b/c their bench is better than some teams starting lineups... and give it their all... especially at home.
 
Iverson is not going to play. That's from a good source.

Everything is good down here. A little crazy if you're not used to it but I've been here long enough to adjust.

Season is changing from wet to dry so the weather is a little crazy. Highs are closer to 78-80 now in San Jose instead of 75... with lows in low-60s... and it's real windy so people are getting sick and stuff.... But all in all, no complaints. Though it will be nice to get back and see the fam soon...
 
Killa said:
Iverson is confirmed as being out?

No, Iverson (back spasms) and CWebb (foot) are questionable for the game still.

Like the Wizards in this one. Sixer team is in a world of trouble, and the Wizards cant afford to fall to 1-9 on the road.
 
metsrp86 said:
No, Iverson (back spasms) and CWebb (foot) are questionable for the game still.

Like the Wizards in this one. Sixer team is in a world of trouble, and the Wizards cant afford to fall to 1-9 on the road.

Iverson is out according to scoresandodds.com, they already readjusted it from being questionable and adjusted the line there as well.
 
metsrp86 said:
No, Iverson (back spasms) and CWebb (foot) are questionable for the game still.

Like the Wizards in this one. Sixer team is in a world of trouble, and the Wizards cant afford to fall to 1-9 on the road.

If CKR says something he usually has 1st hand knowledge...GL tonite
 
renew orleans said:
Iverson is out according to scoresandodds.com, they already readjusted it from being questionable and adjusted the line there as well.

Good News for Me! Still like the Wizards as a slight favorite! :smiley_acbe:
 
NCAAB (been so-so past 3 days after a great run of about +45 units)

Over 145.5 -116 Ohio U (Medium)
Over 68.5 -108 1st H (Small)
Iowa -6.5 -112 (Medium)
Drake -10 -107 (Small) (Drake team over??)
Under 140 -110 SD (small)
Chi St +11 -108 1st H(small)
Over 140 -105 StPeters (small)
Canisus +11.5 -106 (medium) wait
Fairfield -3 -111 (Large)
 
Basically my grading is such incase its confusing :

Small = 1unit
Medium = 2 Units
Large = 4 Units
XLarge = 5units
Value = a ML play 1/8 the size of your ATS play

Totals :
Over 179 -115 Charlotte (Medium)
Over 188 -110 San Antonio (small)
Over 190 -110 Houston ( Large)
Over 91 1st H -111 Houston (Medium)
Over 191 -107 Seattle (Medium)
Under 188 -110 Indiana (Small) O'Neal Out?
Under 220 -102 Boston (Medium)
Under 109 -109 1st Half Boston (small)

Leans: (All No plays)
Over 201.5 Philly -106 & Over 100.5 -101 1st H
Over 218 Suns -110(change)
Under 186 Orlando -110
Over 1st H Denver

Sides
Grizzlies +6 -115 (XLarge) ML +186 (value)
Nuggets -8.5 -110 (XLarge)
Celtics +5 -110 (Medium) ML +175 (value)
Raptors +9 -110 (Medium) ML +350 (value)
Pistons +5 -110 (Small) ML +178 (value) / Middled Orl -3.5 -110
Wolves ML +101 (Medium)
Sixers +4 -110 (Medium) ML +148 (value)


Value Plays
Blazers ML +275 (1/2 small)
Blazers ML 1st H +186 (1/2 small)
Bobcats ML 1st H +170 (1/2 small)
Philly 1st H ML +130 (1/2 small)
Grizzlies 1st H ML +155 (1/2 small)


Lean
Bobcats +6 -110 ML +220
Pistons +4.5 +100 ML +180
Wolves +1.5 -110 ML +100
Sixers ML +130 & +3..

If I must choose...
Atl +8.5
Sea -3.5
LAC +8
Port +8

Team Totals (all small plays unless noted)
Houston ov 92 -105
Pacers Un 96.5 -111
Spurs Ov 98 -108
Jazz Ov 95.5 -110
Wolves Ov 94.5 -110
Hornets Ov 92.5 -113
Philly Ov 99.5 -103 (medium)



:drinking:
 
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12/8: Charlie Villanueva is expected to dress Friday against Memphis, though it's not clear how much he'll be able to play, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports. Villanueva missed just under a month with an elbow injury. Villanueva had hoped to return Wednesday against Portland but the Bucks did not want him back until he had gone through at least one practice.
 
xpression syst_m said:
I am on all of the same sides except boston; ive taken the celtics on the ml for tonight, gl :cheers:

Well GL to us and I feel a little wiser now....:shake:
 
Decided to get off Orlando as it just seems I cant figure out a few things...one of those games where ORL just slides by the spread if you ask me....

While I didnt go into great depth about the Philly play its afirly simplistic. As great a player as AI is he is simply not worth 5 pts in a spread. He has alot of talented players on his team who could benefit from more minutes and / or shots (see: Green , Korver , Carney and Igudola). The home teams plays well historically and after finally winning a road game I see no reason to overreact and anoint the Wiz anything.....

Thats about it....little unnerved with the runnup in the Boston total but what I can do...besides hope Suns are flat.....
 
Agree 100% with the Sixers play. Like the fact that the team has known he wasn't playing tonight for while now. I expect them to come out with alot of energy and I'm not sure the Wizards should be 4 point road favorites over any team at this point.
 
Thanks JPicks & antmagic...GL tonite


Been tied up teh past 30 minutes so I didnt get a chance to pst that in NCAAB I liked both 2nd H overs in Loyola and Louisville......

Hedged
Over 92.5 -130 Portland (small) washes me out of the play..

2nd H Plays
Houston +2.5 -115 (Small) Would have NEVER touched the total if I hd known Breven Knight was out....thats life though..

Magic -1 -107 ( Medium) Reversed Course and going to fade the Pub now....

Blazers ML +351 (value) +6.5 -112 (small)
 
We'll for me the night has been okay, I am ahead anyway but pushed on my crappy Pheonix line for the game. And lost both of my player props
Three statistics that cramped my tonights profit
-Amare Stoudemire fouled out and in foul trouble the whole game.
-Yao Ming sat out early due to the a** whooping Charlotte recieved
-Both of my leans won, but I did not roll them

So I am thinking about following you with the Nuggets, if I do or don't hope to see them win. Good Luck SportsN
 
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