Lets get down to buziness..(2-3 last nite & 2-0 2nd H's)
Houston @ Charlotte
As you follow teams you notice little trends such as "bad teams " like Portland and Charlotte seem to only cover spreads when the win SU and pull off upsets. So it something to keep in the back of your mind IMO on these games. Sort of like how in the NFL recently teams on Primetime do the same win SU and points are useless.
The Rockets simply are not the same team home and away. You can see it there record and furthermore you can see it in the respect oddsmakers give them in there lines. Before the SA loss they were 7-0 ATS past 7 as Home DOgs of bewteen 5 -10 points.
<LI class=more>Bobcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. <LI class=more>Bobcats are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. <LI class=more>Bobcats are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 games following a ATS loss.--Over is 10-3 in Bobcats last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.
<LI class=morehot>Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. <LI class=morehot>Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Hous has been dogged in 6 of 9 away and its highest lines were -4.5 @ Memphis & NYK which they both barely covered. The Spurs in a huge revenge spot were the only time Bobcats were more then +4.5 at home. Basically with the fact Bobcats got rolled last game I like them here at home but what I really like is THE OVER...Past history bewteen these two is tough to use but Char is 3-1 SU.
Of 9 away games the Rockets have allowed 90 ++ in seven and have also socred 90 ++ in seven. While Char is basically in the same boat in 9 games with 6++ above 90 for and against...
Over 179 -115 Houston (medium)
Bobcats +5.5 (Lean)
Detriot @ Orlando
On there recent road trip the Magic opened alot of eyes. However that is NOT what is responsible for this spread. While it might slide under the radar the Pistons dont get much respect. They have only been a 10 pt fav once athome and lost SU! They are generally catching points on the road.....+7 is big enough to make you think in Det the Mavs would be at least a PK. They were 2.5 dogs to the Wiz , they were only -4 @ Philly when the 76ers played without AI , Webber and Hunter and they were dogged on there entire west coast trip. The flip side to that is most people dont realize that ORL has one of the highest Home Court advantages at home in the NBA cause of there recent performance there. Typically though ORL when playing a good team gets a line a little fat.
So with them off a long road trip and Det with a somewhat easy win in Dallas....the points look good about 2 pts to many....in fact Orl is 2-2 l4 at home vs DET with only 2 pt wins....They are a team that should be able to contain Howard and have the edges IMO everywhere else...outside of the bench
--Magic are 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. NBA Central.
<LI class=more>Underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.--Pistons are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Orlando
Play : Pistons +4.5 +100 try for +5 (Large) ML +180 (value) Under 186 (lean)
Port @ Indy
What has gotten into the Blazers this road trip? Based on recent matchups Indy has owned these Blazers and just beat them 11/28 in Portland. Which scares me cause it is tough playing teams in short spans. This is Indy biggest number of the season to date and it comes on the heels of a huge game in Cle tmrw and off a solid home win vs Indy off a long road trip. If they were to be flat it would be here....you would expect a great public backing on Indy here so I would be cautious. Especially since Pacers just went from -2 t Orl which really was to CHEAP and had tehm undervalued to there biggest line of the season which is probably overvaluing them. Everything outside of situation points to Indy here...
Looking back Zach played miserably last time 11 of 27 so he might have that in the back of his head. As well the fact that despite there success Indy only destroyed Port once in the past 3 years at home. They were usually about -4.5 to -8 pts pt favs and lost by 8 and 9....could be one of the rare games Port backdoors someone...
Lean: Blazers +8
Suns @ Boston
Before anyone thinks Wally is OUT read this:
Wally Szczerbiak missed his second straight game Wednesday with a sprained ankle, according to the AP. He's hoping to return to action Friday
While some might disagree Boston and NJ are very similiar teams. In general the Celts are probably a 1 pt or so weaker. NJ has soem nice names but also some hols off the bench and with shooting. One thing I know is if they put Marion on Pierce he will do his rendition of Vince carter who went 13 of 17.
To speculate on the Suns fatigue level you cant really say. Its not so much about the physical fatigue but the fact that both teams give it everything they had to know have to play a team that was resting after you left it all on the court is tough IMO. Its even tougher when you favored and most cover a point spread. I think must would agree the Suns didnt beat NJ the Nets failed to shut the door on Phoenix and the better team (generally speaking)won. I would expect Boston torun with Telfair psuhing the ball but I dont want to get involved in a total and the 2nd H is really when the Suns should be flat.
Heavy Lean +5 -110 & ML +178
Wash @ Philly
The line is just coming out but in a series dominanted by home teams(Phi -1) I want to see whats up with AI and Webber. AI is questionable and Webber had trouble with his foot on Wed , neither praticed yesterday. If everyone is healthy the over looks enticing as well... be back on this...
LAC @ SA
Despite LAC road woes they opened this to high....with how SA has played as chalk I owuld be cautious to lay this number. LAC made strides last season in ending teh Spurs dominanace. A team like the Clips is not that good on the road yet manages to be the fav in half its early away games...they have notcaught more then 5 this season.....
The Clipps ahve struggled defensively on the road allwoing all but 1 to score 100++ and SA offense has played better with Manu back. So since I lean LAC at better then 8 the over seems to be the play as well...
Play: Over 188 -110 (small) wait on possible better #
Utah @ Minny
It seems to me the Wolves continue to get no respect. On paper Utah may appear better but to be road chalk?? Whether situationally aided or not the Jazz have been awful there past 2 away . Furthermore the fact they were catching 4.5 pts vs teams like Seattle and Sac not so long ago tells me they are still unproven away. This Utah team was even dogged at home to LAC...which Minny did beat.....it seems alot of teams go from undervalued to way overvalued real quick.
Its close but I have this game as a PK and certainly the public will favor Utah creating value IMO on the Wolves...who are quitely 7-1 ATS past 8...
What I really like here is the OVER despite past history. Wolves games have been finding 195 ++ at home and Utah consistenly has allowed 100 ++ and we know they can score.....Utah is the better team on a neutral court but I dont think they are the better team playing on Minnys floor...
Play: (wait) Over 190-110 & Minny (heavy lean)
Tor @ Chi
Actually the more I look at the tougher the game. Raps are ATS machines when it comes to getting points and Bulls look like a machine right now. They have dominanted the Raps recently winning at least the past 10 meetings.....
My biggest concern is Bulls are shaded abit high here...theyhave blown out three bad teams..Bos , Wiz and NYK...Wiz are a bad road team....the raps as I said have become cover machines and I think maybe should only be about +7 here.....are they not better then Boston & NYK??
Lean : Raps ...despite stopping the run & gun offense the over still looks enticing...Toronto should be mid 90's or so and Bull should crack a 100....it just seems worse case your looking a t about 200 but at 204 where is teh value??
Memphis @ Milw
This was the game that stood out quickly as I eyeballed the games last nite. It was simply oneof those lines that struck me as being OFF. Milw have been a great fade as chalk just 2-6 ATS. Really I dont see these teams being anything but equal. Bucks had some nice wins on there road trip but Grizz are gritty and have some depth at Forward which Milw really doesnt. Look at there last game they starters wnt the distance. I guess you have to be cautious with Villaneuva 's impending return. However if its such an uncertainity surrounding his comeback how can he be effective right away?? Grizz are 7-4 ATS away with 2 non covers bya 1 point...They assume Fratello's identity IMO by being blue collar and scrappy thins you cant measure....
-Grizz are 8-1 ATS past 9 meetings
-Bucks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
-Grizzlies are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. NBA Central.
-Bucks are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
Not the greatest explanation .....
Grizzlies (bought) +6 (XLarge ) ML +186 (value) Under 193 (lean)
Houston @ Charlotte
As you follow teams you notice little trends such as "bad teams " like Portland and Charlotte seem to only cover spreads when the win SU and pull off upsets. So it something to keep in the back of your mind IMO on these games. Sort of like how in the NFL recently teams on Primetime do the same win SU and points are useless.
The Rockets simply are not the same team home and away. You can see it there record and furthermore you can see it in the respect oddsmakers give them in there lines. Before the SA loss they were 7-0 ATS past 7 as Home DOgs of bewteen 5 -10 points.
<LI class=more>Bobcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. <LI class=more>Bobcats are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. <LI class=more>Bobcats are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 games following a ATS loss.--Over is 10-3 in Bobcats last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.
<LI class=morehot>Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. <LI class=morehot>Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Hous has been dogged in 6 of 9 away and its highest lines were -4.5 @ Memphis & NYK which they both barely covered. The Spurs in a huge revenge spot were the only time Bobcats were more then +4.5 at home. Basically with the fact Bobcats got rolled last game I like them here at home but what I really like is THE OVER...Past history bewteen these two is tough to use but Char is 3-1 SU.
Of 9 away games the Rockets have allowed 90 ++ in seven and have also socred 90 ++ in seven. While Char is basically in the same boat in 9 games with 6++ above 90 for and against...
Over 179 -115 Houston (medium)
Bobcats +5.5 (Lean)
Detriot @ Orlando
On there recent road trip the Magic opened alot of eyes. However that is NOT what is responsible for this spread. While it might slide under the radar the Pistons dont get much respect. They have only been a 10 pt fav once athome and lost SU! They are generally catching points on the road.....+7 is big enough to make you think in Det the Mavs would be at least a PK. They were 2.5 dogs to the Wiz , they were only -4 @ Philly when the 76ers played without AI , Webber and Hunter and they were dogged on there entire west coast trip. The flip side to that is most people dont realize that ORL has one of the highest Home Court advantages at home in the NBA cause of there recent performance there. Typically though ORL when playing a good team gets a line a little fat.
So with them off a long road trip and Det with a somewhat easy win in Dallas....the points look good about 2 pts to many....in fact Orl is 2-2 l4 at home vs DET with only 2 pt wins....They are a team that should be able to contain Howard and have the edges IMO everywhere else...outside of the bench
--Magic are 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. NBA Central.
<LI class=more>Underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.--Pistons are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Orlando
Play : Pistons +4.5 +100 try for +5 (Large) ML +180 (value) Under 186 (lean)
Port @ Indy
What has gotten into the Blazers this road trip? Based on recent matchups Indy has owned these Blazers and just beat them 11/28 in Portland. Which scares me cause it is tough playing teams in short spans. This is Indy biggest number of the season to date and it comes on the heels of a huge game in Cle tmrw and off a solid home win vs Indy off a long road trip. If they were to be flat it would be here....you would expect a great public backing on Indy here so I would be cautious. Especially since Pacers just went from -2 t Orl which really was to CHEAP and had tehm undervalued to there biggest line of the season which is probably overvaluing them. Everything outside of situation points to Indy here...
Looking back Zach played miserably last time 11 of 27 so he might have that in the back of his head. As well the fact that despite there success Indy only destroyed Port once in the past 3 years at home. They were usually about -4.5 to -8 pts pt favs and lost by 8 and 9....could be one of the rare games Port backdoors someone...
Lean: Blazers +8
Suns @ Boston
Before anyone thinks Wally is OUT read this:
Wally Szczerbiak missed his second straight game Wednesday with a sprained ankle, according to the AP. He's hoping to return to action Friday
While some might disagree Boston and NJ are very similiar teams. In general the Celts are probably a 1 pt or so weaker. NJ has soem nice names but also some hols off the bench and with shooting. One thing I know is if they put Marion on Pierce he will do his rendition of Vince carter who went 13 of 17.
To speculate on the Suns fatigue level you cant really say. Its not so much about the physical fatigue but the fact that both teams give it everything they had to know have to play a team that was resting after you left it all on the court is tough IMO. Its even tougher when you favored and most cover a point spread. I think must would agree the Suns didnt beat NJ the Nets failed to shut the door on Phoenix and the better team (generally speaking)won. I would expect Boston torun with Telfair psuhing the ball but I dont want to get involved in a total and the 2nd H is really when the Suns should be flat.
Heavy Lean +5 -110 & ML +178
Wash @ Philly
The line is just coming out but in a series dominanted by home teams(Phi -1) I want to see whats up with AI and Webber. AI is questionable and Webber had trouble with his foot on Wed , neither praticed yesterday. If everyone is healthy the over looks enticing as well... be back on this...
LAC @ SA
Despite LAC road woes they opened this to high....with how SA has played as chalk I owuld be cautious to lay this number. LAC made strides last season in ending teh Spurs dominanace. A team like the Clips is not that good on the road yet manages to be the fav in half its early away games...they have notcaught more then 5 this season.....
The Clipps ahve struggled defensively on the road allwoing all but 1 to score 100++ and SA offense has played better with Manu back. So since I lean LAC at better then 8 the over seems to be the play as well...
Play: Over 188 -110 (small) wait on possible better #
Utah @ Minny
It seems to me the Wolves continue to get no respect. On paper Utah may appear better but to be road chalk?? Whether situationally aided or not the Jazz have been awful there past 2 away . Furthermore the fact they were catching 4.5 pts vs teams like Seattle and Sac not so long ago tells me they are still unproven away. This Utah team was even dogged at home to LAC...which Minny did beat.....it seems alot of teams go from undervalued to way overvalued real quick.
Its close but I have this game as a PK and certainly the public will favor Utah creating value IMO on the Wolves...who are quitely 7-1 ATS past 8...
What I really like here is the OVER despite past history. Wolves games have been finding 195 ++ at home and Utah consistenly has allowed 100 ++ and we know they can score.....Utah is the better team on a neutral court but I dont think they are the better team playing on Minnys floor...
Play: (wait) Over 190-110 & Minny (heavy lean)
Tor @ Chi
Actually the more I look at the tougher the game. Raps are ATS machines when it comes to getting points and Bulls look like a machine right now. They have dominanted the Raps recently winning at least the past 10 meetings.....
My biggest concern is Bulls are shaded abit high here...theyhave blown out three bad teams..Bos , Wiz and NYK...Wiz are a bad road team....the raps as I said have become cover machines and I think maybe should only be about +7 here.....are they not better then Boston & NYK??
Lean : Raps ...despite stopping the run & gun offense the over still looks enticing...Toronto should be mid 90's or so and Bull should crack a 100....it just seems worse case your looking a t about 200 but at 204 where is teh value??
Memphis @ Milw
This was the game that stood out quickly as I eyeballed the games last nite. It was simply oneof those lines that struck me as being OFF. Milw have been a great fade as chalk just 2-6 ATS. Really I dont see these teams being anything but equal. Bucks had some nice wins on there road trip but Grizz are gritty and have some depth at Forward which Milw really doesnt. Look at there last game they starters wnt the distance. I guess you have to be cautious with Villaneuva 's impending return. However if its such an uncertainity surrounding his comeback how can he be effective right away?? Grizz are 7-4 ATS away with 2 non covers bya 1 point...They assume Fratello's identity IMO by being blue collar and scrappy thins you cant measure....
-Grizz are 8-1 ATS past 9 meetings
-Bucks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
-Grizzlies are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. NBA Central.
-Bucks are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
Not the greatest explanation .....
Grizzlies (bought) +6 (XLarge ) ML +186 (value) Under 193 (lean)
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