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Friday NBA Thoughts

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
With the easy 3 game Schedule for Thursday I have been slowly looking at these games....

7Pm
NJ travels to Toronto

I think when a team is slumping but starts turning the corner you should be cautious if they win at home then travel as road chalk. I assume this line was set with Bosh being doubtful...cause it would seem high if is healthy. Flying under the radar is Richard Jefferson hurt his other ankle and may not play here , actually he might not even travel. The Nets were 3-2 when he missed 5 games earlier. Raps had gone 10-2 ATS previous 12 before the Bosh injury. Sort of a weird spot NJ on a 6game home stand play @ tor then have 4 more at home..NJ had shown improvement with 2 narrow losses followed by 2 wins. Would like to see Bosh here and take the home dog..

Really not much going on here. Looks like Jefferson is doubtful with Bosh listed as questionable. We have a bunch of Under trends and Tor has been in the 175 range w/o Bosh while NJ managed to overcome RJ's loss earlier at least in the scoreboard. NJ has not lit up the scoreboard away so expect a game in the low 90's..

Play: Under 191.5 -116 (Small) & Lean : Raps +3 -104 / ML +132


Miami travels to Washington

Wade will miss again , Haywood played and Thomas missed. Really going to be tough to keep up with the WIZ offensive firepower ...the key is Miami owns WIZ 10- SU & 8-2 ATS...however doesnt that give extra incentive for Washington to lay a beatdown on the shorthanded Heat?? Kick'em while there down sort of mentality...

I look at it like this Miami has already struggled on the road this season , they were just DD dogs at home to Phoenix, and there last road game they were +9 Denver and got smoked when Wade played...

I will hope this number hangs around -10 and play the Wiz at least 1stHalf...probably willing to hit hard at 10 or below..

Play: Wizards -10 -110 (Medium/Large) ..played it as Large play deciding to keep it all or noot...

NYK @ Indiana

Crazy schedules...NYK home for like 7 straight travel to Indy then go back home for four..! Ind is 7-2 at home while NYK is 7-4 ATS away...

With NY early on truly having no home court edge its hard to say what Indy being -3 @ MSG translates into. For awhile I was simply using 0 as the NYK home court factor , meaning if I was trying to figure out what there spreads were I would simply not give them anything for being at home..so if thats correct then -6 would be fair...not cheap...

Indy has been cheap for awhile and I have rode their tails but now I feel liek I alimbo with them..if this hovered above 7 I might entertain NYK..

Right now little real feel for this...I see Indy in the mid to upper 90's posibly cracking 100 which just makes this total tight...

7:30PM's

Denver travels to Boston

The Celtics have turned to Al Jefferson and that has turned the team around now winners of 3 straight after 2 tough home losses to Memphis and Phoenix..

Historically speaking the Celts have won 4 of 5 from Denver in Boston . They lost 100-99 as the lone blemish. What makes the Nuggets good enough to lay chalk?? As I said in a previous post this Denver team played basically the same Boston late last season catching 3 points and lost 106 -101 . They have traveled 10 times and played a host of Eastern Conference teams yet been favored only twice...@ Charlotte -3.5 and earlier this week @ ATL as -8. They were dogged in Philly but won , dogged by 4.5 in miami/Orlando and split , and dogged in Wash were they just got smoked. Many of those games were early on and when in my eyes DEN was undervalued. Now this time around they hit the road and dont look so good...get smoked in Dallas and Wash but rally in ATL to win easily against a College All Star team..

Boston has lost 4 straight at home but by 2,3 and 5 in the last three. The win streak plus the home slide should put some some extra urgency on this game. Nuggs play 3rd in 4 away..

guess you just have believe DEN is a 1 man show and sliding while Boston is rising...as I have said the injury to Wally allowed Green to play along with getting Tony Allen some minutes...

Despite recent scores I would have to belive this will be a up and down game like when they hosted Phoenix meaning 214 will be an attractive over but it could get cheaper...

Plays: see Bos +3.5 -110(XLarge) ML +135 (Small)
You have to think every Den game will at least see 210++ so the over could be a possibility. Waiting to see how HIGH that Boston line goes before I place it...(ML as well)

Seattle @ Cleveland

At this point with injuries mounting the Sonics are unattractive to me..Watson ( Game-Time Decision) is a must to even consider SEA with Allen out. Cavs are not good laying big numbers however they should do well when playing banged up teams like Indy recently....

the Sonics simply are to thin...

The Cavs now healthy should be able to win by DDs here jst not sure how interested I am in this game...The over was pointed and while I figured Cle for a 100 if Sea was to score 90 it would trickle under...anyway its since moved up so maybe I missed something ...Cle is a 1st H team but I think SEA could tire w/o a bench to turn to and rebounding could be an issue...


8PM's
Atlanta travels to Memphis

I can see/hear it now how can Memphis be laying 6.5 to anybody. Well if NYK can and cover then its fair with Memphis...Looks like Joe Johnson is OUT , thinking Gasol is still out and Swift is now on the injured list. What makes Memphis interesting is the play defense which could lead to an even worse FG % for ATL. Also think of it logical ...Grizz shouldnt have been laying 6.5 to Port but Blazers jumped out to a 13 pt lead and fought Memphis back all nite...even leading under a minute. It comes down to who wins and I have to think at home Memphis does NOT lose this game....

With Gasol as being back for Miami does it provide a lift?? Suprised to see Mem hit 7 early on , just think cracking 80 poins will be tough here for the Hawks..and even lean under 180...we have time to figure this one out

Philly @ Dallas

Again the Sixers may be slumping but 14! This team is competing IMO jst coming up short. Remember this the Mavs have no bench especially if Stackhouse and Anthony Johnson miss(croshere ..??). Also remember Jan 29, 2005...its the last time AI missed a game in Dallas....as 13.5 pt dogs they won SU. In all fairness the Mavs team was abit different but still similiar. Hopefully Rodney Carney is okay we need every body available...

Simply put right now I think this line is just to BIG....

Lean : Philly +15 -110 / ML +1300??

8:30
Milw @ Chi

Chi has been tough at home versus medicore teams..they already smoked the Bucks at home laying 6.5. last 10 games only 1 team has cracked 95 pts on them and its suprisingly the Hornets...Last 20 home team is 15-5 ATS...

To be honest right now I prefer to wait on some line action... I really dont have a handle on MILW right now ...they have played poorly last few and they cant be flat versus Chi here...there is a just aprt of me that makes me think they can win SU...

The UNDER has been brought up and really to me it depends on what MILW does...if they compete they make it tougher for it to hit...105 -95 slides under......Yes , the Bulls home ppg allowed look impressive...Tor and especially Minny tend to play low scoring games away and Sea was shorthanded...

Just another one of the games tonite that I feel is a few points away from going in either direction...

9PM

Kings @ Jazz

Another team I dont know what to make off..Da Kings...Jazz already beat them in SAC as an undervalued 4.5 pt dog...cant see myself laying 7 though..they did play that w/o Kirilenko and managed to outscore them in the 4th 39-17...Miller missed for Sac

Utah on an offensive run putting up 100+ last 6...

The more I look at this I see Utah has really not been laying big chalk often this year. While they have played well for the most part they have been undervalued some. The kings have played poorly away but do have 2 days rest after a rough stretch of games. They played in Dallas and SA as 8 pt dogs...just think this maybe somewhat fat...cause in my estimation Utah is still a notch below those top teams...feeling higher the 6 is fat...
Would like the over but again comes down to how close the game is or isnt...

GS @ Suns

Well Suns off a successful 5-0 trip...Warriors will be playing back to back....Suns won a 3pt'er by Nash at the end of regulation in GS. Baron Davis didnt play but Richardson did...generally I think Davis is much more important to this team..GS logged some big minutes with Barnes , Ellis and most importantly Baron Davis..being 1st game back of a trip could be a flat spot...Looking at Davis season back ends havent been a problem performance wise to date but not having JRich or even Murphy might hurt them abit.....especially when they will have to run and run some more..

At first I did thnk the Over 230 looked enticing but thinking maybe its not a good spot for it...big spread...only 216 in GS...Suns 3 straight Unders and get there highest total..??? Then I look @ GS last 4 away...allowed 140 in Denver , 129 in SA , 118 in Hou and 117 in Sea with no Ray Allen...so if GS can keep this semi-close it could sail OVER...Suns getting 90 or more shots at home..??

Lean: Warriors +11.5 ...watching closely 231 o-116 and 1st H over 118-105

10 PM
LAC @ Portland

Sort of interested in being a sucker again..which means LA looks cheap at only 1.5.....The Clippers beat them 4 times last year and were never cheaper then 2.5. We need to see the injury report for LAC though...Cassell and Maggette uestionable still while Roy could return..

Blazers come home off a long trip winning last 3 legs going 4-2 but an OT away from 5-1 SU...

Bad part is Clipps stink away this year at 1-7...

I did like the improving defense on the trip so hoping for a high number I can play Under.... 183.5 not what I envisioned but with Blazers renewed def effort and LAC failing to crack 89 in 7 of the past 10 maybe it still has some value....

Sort of suprised the market is backing LAC...?? Wont back LAC if this number stays above 1.5...

Houston @ LAL

Its revenge but waiting to see how tonite ends up...Wait on TMac's status...Houston expended alot of injury to get beat on buzzer beater and the line is up to -6. Really think -4 is fair but being shorthanded is tough to figure out what it does to the team...Mings 41 minutes...?? Lets not forget Odom is gone here as well...

Just some preliminary thoughts 12 games to decipher and not looking like a great card at the moment.....
 
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That 230 for the Suns/Warriors game might be too high.
Basically close to 58 pts have to be scored Every quarter, so both teams score 30 or phx 40 and one 20.

If you think Washington/Denv at 221.5 didn't make it over and they shot pretty well, Phx is Washington and GSW is Denv. it might be close, but I think GSW sometimes goes through shooting droughts.
Especially looking at how much scoring that have to do in the Hou/GS game. They are currently at 210. Takes alot out of the legs and B2B.
 
lfhlaw said:
That 230 for the Suns/Warriors game might be too high.
Basically close to 58 pts have to be scored Every quarter, so both teams score 30 or phx 40 and one 20.

If you think Washington/Denv at 221.5 didn't make it over and they shot pretty well, Phx is Washington and GSW is Denv. it might be close, but I think GSW sometimes goes through shooting droughts.
Especially looking at how much scoring that have to do in the Hou/GS game. They are currently at 210. Takes alot out of the legs and B2B.


Pretty much agree...I think though GS is the highest scoring team in the NBA cause they play less defense then Suns....If Suns even get 120 but cover the spread you see where we are headed.....if I dabbled mayb the 1st H over but you wil be a premium...team totals maybe..but as I said they will be 120suns 110 GS..

I didnt like that Wiz over though...figured it would be like 112-105...and sneak under....did have the over in GS tonite...

The more I look at this card the less Ihave to say cause it seems tight all the way around.....rcokets logged some big minutes to lose that game tonite....

BOL
 
The UNDER 202 in the Bucks/Bulls game is very appealing. Look what the Bulls have done defensively at home on this current homestand:

12/2/2006 Home W 112-94 vs. #18 Washington
12/4/2006 Home W 100-82 vs. #25 Boston
12/6/2006 Home W 121-94 vs. #30 Philadelphia
12/8/2006 Home W 93-90 vs. #22 Toronto
12/9/2006 Home L 81-91 vs. #8 Minnesota
12/11/2006 Home W 106-91 vs. #17 Indiana
12/13/2006 Home W 99-84 vs. #19 Seattle
 
My main hesistancy with the UNDER right now is more what MILW is allowing ...at least 100+ in last 6 raod games..and actually only 2 teams didnt break...they other thing is CHI has played a few depleted teams in that span which seem to be the one who failed to cracked 90...
 
Before I leave..

Wiz -10 looks attractive ... , Celts +3 -105 one of my favs at the moment waiting on a damn ML... , Philly at better then 14 looks attractive , if we see Grizz drop they look attractive , semi-interested in LAC -1.5 and GS +10 as well

Really as far as the totals I think you can get a drift from my initial thoughts....

for a big card just not overy interested..
 
Wiz and C's look very solid.....couple totals I am looking more into are Seattle/Cleveland over 191 if Watson plays and Utah over 202.5
 
Kmacc said:
Wiz and C's look very solid.....couple totals I am looking more into are Seattle/Cleveland over 191 if Watson plays and Utah over 202.5

Not the most exciting card..its Boston #1 and thats about all...not crazy about that sea/cavs total ..not sure seattle keeps it close enough just think its tight ...was thinking bout the Jazz over but I think I am gonna just sit tight for awhile...

Chat with ya tmrw
 
great writeups and insight SportsNut, GL tonight bro, I'm seriously considering the Raptors as well, love that home dog. Plus thinking about Wizards despite double digit spread.
 
Celts +3 is what I got going as of now... it should be a winner... 80% joe pub all over Denver.. line opened at -2 for a reason... I expect this number to keep inflating then get pounded back down before game time. Denver, IMO, just not a great club. Getting whipped by ATL for 65% of that game proves that.
 
Inspekdah said:
Celts +3 is what I got going as of now... it should be a winner... 80% joe pub all over Denver.. line opened at -2 for a reason... I expect this number to keep inflating then get pounded back down before game time. Denver, IMO, just not a great club. Getting whipped by ATL for 65% of that game proves that.

Been trying to open eyes up to Boston since the lines first came out...glad we agree...BOL
 
Thanks and good luck...Duy & 3 gamblers...!! boring "BIG" card

Satyr ~ Thanks bro...really was at a loss for words on alot of these games...lines seem tight all the way around and injuries make it harder ...think I will be playing Tor & played Wiz already...GL
 
I wish Boston was that easy. Denver 5-1 su and 6-0 ats in first gme of b-b this year and 3-0 ats on the road after a loss. Last 2 Boston wins opposition just did not show up not sure what that showed. Looking for something firm but not seeing it yet. GL
 
taking the value stance Tuck...I really pay more attention to underperforming / overperforming vs spreads then actually SU stats..its always tough to look back when you cant explain the surounding situation......and I rarely think anything easy...

Basically I feel the Nuggets have made the switch from undervalued to overvalued , and I feel the books dont have to change anything in regards to Boston cause the betting public doesnt buy into this turnaround..I really cant knock Boston for winning 3 conference games away ...

Look at the situational aspect of it....they lose SU in LAC then go home and lost 2 SU...they go to Philly as +2.5 dogs....with or w/o AI the Sixers arent very good...so they beat a bad team...Then they lose in Orl and next road game its in GS...they Warriors just struggle with DEN so far....they won SU but also had the cushion of being 4.5 dogs...they get smoked in Dallas and next game is the revenge match versus ATL with JJ out.....

So I doent see a Denver team buckling down and bouncing back just a team getting an easy opponent... Now home or away they havent played well last 5 and have to win and cover chalk...a situation they really havent been in..does ATL count..?

Thats my take...
 
Sides:

Raptors +3 -105 (Medium) ML +130 (Value)
Wizards -10 -110 (Large) staying Big
Celtics +3.5 -110 (XLarge) ML +130 (Small)
Rockets +5 -111( Medium) ML +178 (Value)..thought about it @ +6 but acted to late...just seemed way off..
Cavs -8 -105 (Medium)
Sixers +15 -105 (Small) ML +1350 (value)


Leans:
NYK +6.5 -112
Grizz -7 +100
Warriors +11.5 +100
Blazers +2.5 -105
Kings +7.5 -110


1stH
Memphis -3.5 -111 (Medium)
Sixers +8.5 +104 (Small)
Cavs -4.5 -105 (Small)
Over 118 -105 Suns (Medium) & Over 118 -116(Small)
Under 93 -106 Portland (Small)

1st Q
Over 59.5 -116 Suns (Small)
NYK +149ML(Small) ...shot in the dark..


Totals ...

Under 179.5 -110 memphis (Small)
Over 213 -108 Denver (Medium)



Still searching & working...I did change my mind on the Raptors Under and ate a ton of juice (o192 -110) but on a small play its insignificant..didnt like the move...and now its worse...

the more I look the less I like...even Boston as big a play as it is for me is nowehere near the last 2 days where I loved an underdog...

-
 
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Total thoughts...

-Odd move upward on Tor...
-Thought about the Under in Wash but its went down so maybe at half..??
-Like the 1st H over in Indiana but dont like the fact you need a 100...
-just waiting but will add over in Boston (medium)
-think the move up on Cle could make an Under value in Cleveland..
-Tight line in Philly need to see what happens 1st H...100-85 is square
-think the Bulls line is tight nad depends on Milw..if Bucks keep it close it should sail over..
-have to think over in Utah unless its a blowout
-think Hou and LAL is tight and sneaks over...

Lets see what we have at halftime
 
Thought it was fairly interesting to see Den as only -2.5 to NYK tmrw....

Really not into this card so look for maybe some Halftime Insight if I can provide it.....

BOL all!!!
 
Well somewhat disgusted I washed out of Tor Under, however upon waiting to see where they woul put the 2nd H number I expected a soft one...instead we got a high one...I dove in played Over 98 -117(Small) but it went to99 alredy. Main reasoning was as I said previously I didnt understand why the total moved up to begin with to 193...the fundamental reason was simply 86 shots taken.....and the fav is trailing
 
fucking Posey caught fire making me regret not playing -6 1st half....

Gonna hedge some : 2nd Half Heat +3 +100 (Small)

Not touching the NYK game but again pissed I didnt play the 1st Half over...
 
Also Pau Gasol is playing and I should have suspected that was why the line was moving ........really would have never played Memphis If I had known.....never wouldI expect something fromsomeone who has missed 20 games....prettymuch think mem 1st H is a LOSS
 
Sides:

(7-0 +17.73)
Raptors +3 -105 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +130 (Value) +0.35
Wizards -10 -110 (Large) Win +4.00
Celtics +3.5 -110 (XLarge) Win +5.00 ML +130 (Small) Win +1.30
Rockets +5 -111( Medium) ML +178 (Value)
Cavs -8 -105 (Medium) Win +2.00
Sixers +15 -105 (Small) Win +1.00 ML +1350 (value) L-0.13
Bucks +7 -105 (Small) ML +270(Value) Win +1.00 & Loss -0.13
Kings +7.5 -120 (Small) Win +1.00 ML +270 (Value) Win +0.34

Leans:
NYK +6.5 -112
Grizz -7 +100
Warriors +11.5 +100
Blazers +2.5 -105
Kings +7.5 -110


1stH (-6.54)
Memphis -3.5 -111 (Medium) Loss -2.22 (F'n Pau!)
Sixers +8.5 +104 (Small) Loss -1.00
Cavs -4.5 -105 (Small) Win +1.00
Over 118 -105 Suns (Medium) Loss -2.10 & Over 118 -116(Small) L -1.16
Under 93 -106 Portland (Small) Loss -1.06

1st Q(+0.33)
Over 59.5 -116 Suns (Small)Loss -1.16
NYK +149ML(Small) Win +1.49


Totals ...(+0.90)

Under 179.5 -110 memphis (Small) Loss -1.10
Over 213 -108 Denver (Medium) Win +2.00

Team Totals(+1.00)
Over 105 -112 Boston (Small) Win +1.00

2nd H (+1.25)
Over 98 -117 Tor (Small) Loss -1.17(overthought this 1)
Heat +3 +100 (Small) Win +1.00
Under 106 -105 Denver (Small) Loss -1.05
Under 96 -111 Cavs (Small) Win +1.00
Hawks +7.5 -115 (Small) Win +1.00
GS +5 -105 (Small) Win +1.00 ML +240 (value) +0.30
Over 114.5 -105 (Medium) Loss -2.10
Kings +4.5 -115 (Small) Win +1.00 ML +214(Value)+0.27
Blazers +3 -108 (Small)
Under 91.5 -102 (Small)

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Boston leads 64-47....you might want to hedge , crazy shit happens in the 2nd Half but I will ride it out..
 
Made the small play on the 2nd Half Under in Cle as they led by 20 and I dont forsee SEA getting back into this game...I fell asleep with this inthe 7PM games in Indiana and Wash...after huge 1st H's...
 
Since I am really pissed that Gasol is playing cause I know he is useless...and made the Grizz overpriced.....

2nd H:
Hawks +7.5 -115 (Small)
 
you like those two 2nd h's a lot i'm thinking of going small on them
 
Not alot just sort of what I had been thinking before the games started...

GS made a great 2nd Q run and after a real slow start they made up for the early pace....

For the Kings I thought the line was to fat to begin with..so gonna try and see if they can hold on...

Not my best bit for me worth a shot..BOL
 
just asking i laid off ...............GL I was thinking that total could go either way in the 2nd
 
ontime23 said:
just asking i laid off ...............GL I was thinking that total could go either way in the 2nd

No problem . Like I said repeatedly today I just cant get a great felfor this card...all things Iplayed 1st H lost and things I would have liked to play hit...just would like to even out the losses ...GL
 
I am big believer in karma.....funny how tonites Kings was exactly the opposite of how the one in Sac ended...actually exact same just the opposite teams.....

Nice !
 
Not gonna touch it but would lean Hou +7 and over 98...but theres a reason I am not playing it cause its a PURE GUESS.....
 
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