With the easy 3 game Schedule for Thursday I have been slowly looking at these games....
7Pm
NJ travels to Toronto
I think when a team is slumping but starts turning the corner you should be cautious if they win at home then travel as road chalk. I assume this line was set with Bosh being doubtful...cause it would seem high if is healthy. Flying under the radar is Richard Jefferson hurt his other ankle and may not play here , actually he might not even travel. The Nets were 3-2 when he missed 5 games earlier. Raps had gone 10-2 ATS previous 12 before the Bosh injury. Sort of a weird spot NJ on a 6game home stand play @ tor then have 4 more at home..NJ had shown improvement with 2 narrow losses followed by 2 wins. Would like to see Bosh here and take the home dog..
Really not much going on here. Looks like Jefferson is doubtful with Bosh listed as questionable. We have a bunch of Under trends and Tor has been in the 175 range w/o Bosh while NJ managed to overcome RJ's loss earlier at least in the scoreboard. NJ has not lit up the scoreboard away so expect a game in the low 90's..
Play: Under 191.5 -116 (Small) & Lean : Raps +3 -104 / ML +132
Miami travels to Washington
Wade will miss again , Haywood played and Thomas missed. Really going to be tough to keep up with the WIZ offensive firepower ...the key is Miami owns WIZ 10- SU & 8-2 ATS...however doesnt that give extra incentive for Washington to lay a beatdown on the shorthanded Heat?? Kick'em while there down sort of mentality...
I look at it like this Miami has already struggled on the road this season , they were just DD dogs at home to Phoenix, and there last road game they were +9 Denver and got smoked when Wade played...
I will hope this number hangs around -10 and play the Wiz at least 1stHalf...probably willing to hit hard at 10 or below..
Play: Wizards -10 -110 (Medium/Large) ..played it as Large play deciding to keep it all or noot...
NYK @ Indiana
Crazy schedules...NYK home for like 7 straight travel to Indy then go back home for four..! Ind is 7-2 at home while NYK is 7-4 ATS away...
With NY early on truly having no home court edge its hard to say what Indy being -3 @ MSG translates into. For awhile I was simply using 0 as the NYK home court factor , meaning if I was trying to figure out what there spreads were I would simply not give them anything for being at home..so if thats correct then -6 would be fair...not cheap...
Indy has been cheap for awhile and I have rode their tails but now I feel liek I alimbo with them..if this hovered above 7 I might entertain NYK..
Right now little real feel for this...I see Indy in the mid to upper 90's posibly cracking 100 which just makes this total tight...
7:30PM's
Denver travels to Boston
The Celtics have turned to Al Jefferson and that has turned the team around now winners of 3 straight after 2 tough home losses to Memphis and Phoenix..
Historically speaking the Celts have won 4 of 5 from Denver in Boston . They lost 100-99 as the lone blemish. What makes the Nuggets good enough to lay chalk?? As I said in a previous post this Denver team played basically the same Boston late last season catching 3 points and lost 106 -101 . They have traveled 10 times and played a host of Eastern Conference teams yet been favored only twice...@ Charlotte -3.5 and earlier this week @ ATL as -8. They were dogged in Philly but won , dogged by 4.5 in miami/Orlando and split , and dogged in Wash were they just got smoked. Many of those games were early on and when in my eyes DEN was undervalued. Now this time around they hit the road and dont look so good...get smoked in Dallas and Wash but rally in ATL to win easily against a College All Star team..
Boston has lost 4 straight at home but by 2,3 and 5 in the last three. The win streak plus the home slide should put some some extra urgency on this game. Nuggs play 3rd in 4 away..
guess you just have believe DEN is a 1 man show and sliding while Boston is rising...as I have said the injury to Wally allowed Green to play along with getting Tony Allen some minutes...
Despite recent scores I would have to belive this will be a up and down game like when they hosted Phoenix meaning 214 will be an attractive over but it could get cheaper...
Plays: see Bos +3.5 -110(XLarge) ML +135 (Small)
You have to think every Den game will at least see 210++ so the over could be a possibility. Waiting to see how HIGH that Boston line goes before I place it...(ML as well)
Seattle @ Cleveland
At this point with injuries mounting the Sonics are unattractive to me..Watson ( Game-Time Decision) is a must to even consider SEA with Allen out. Cavs are not good laying big numbers however they should do well when playing banged up teams like Indy recently....
the Sonics simply are to thin...
The Cavs now healthy should be able to win by DDs here jst not sure how interested I am in this game...The over was pointed and while I figured Cle for a 100 if Sea was to score 90 it would trickle under...anyway its since moved up so maybe I missed something ...Cle is a 1st H team but I think SEA could tire w/o a bench to turn to and rebounding could be an issue...
8PM's
Atlanta travels to Memphis
I can see/hear it now how can Memphis be laying 6.5 to anybody. Well if NYK can and cover then its fair with Memphis...Looks like Joe Johnson is OUT , thinking Gasol is still out and Swift is now on the injured list. What makes Memphis interesting is the play defense which could lead to an even worse FG % for ATL. Also think of it logical ...Grizz shouldnt have been laying 6.5 to Port but Blazers jumped out to a 13 pt lead and fought Memphis back all nite...even leading under a minute. It comes down to who wins and I have to think at home Memphis does NOT lose this game....
With Gasol as being back for Miami does it provide a lift?? Suprised to see Mem hit 7 early on , just think cracking 80 poins will be tough here for the Hawks..and even lean under 180...we have time to figure this one out
Philly @ Dallas
Again the Sixers may be slumping but 14! This team is competing IMO jst coming up short. Remember this the Mavs have no bench especially if Stackhouse and Anthony Johnson miss(croshere ..??). Also remember Jan 29, 2005...its the last time AI missed a game in Dallas....as 13.5 pt dogs they won SU. In all fairness the Mavs team was abit different but still similiar. Hopefully Rodney Carney is okay we need every body available...
Simply put right now I think this line is just to BIG....
Lean : Philly +15 -110 / ML +1300??
8:30
Milw @ Chi
Chi has been tough at home versus medicore teams..they already smoked the Bucks at home laying 6.5. last 10 games only 1 team has cracked 95 pts on them and its suprisingly the Hornets...Last 20 home team is 15-5 ATS...
To be honest right now I prefer to wait on some line action... I really dont have a handle on MILW right now ...they have played poorly last few and they cant be flat versus Chi here...there is a just aprt of me that makes me think they can win SU...
The UNDER has been brought up and really to me it depends on what MILW does...if they compete they make it tougher for it to hit...105 -95 slides under......Yes , the Bulls home ppg allowed look impressive...Tor and especially Minny tend to play low scoring games away and Sea was shorthanded...
Just another one of the games tonite that I feel is a few points away from going in either direction...
9PM
Kings @ Jazz
Another team I dont know what to make off..Da Kings...Jazz already beat them in SAC as an undervalued 4.5 pt dog...cant see myself laying 7 though..they did play that w/o Kirilenko and managed to outscore them in the 4th 39-17...Miller missed for Sac
Utah on an offensive run putting up 100+ last 6...
The more I look at this I see Utah has really not been laying big chalk often this year. While they have played well for the most part they have been undervalued some. The kings have played poorly away but do have 2 days rest after a rough stretch of games. They played in Dallas and SA as 8 pt dogs...just think this maybe somewhat fat...cause in my estimation Utah is still a notch below those top teams...feeling higher the 6 is fat...
Would like the over but again comes down to how close the game is or isnt...
GS @ Suns
Well Suns off a successful 5-0 trip...Warriors will be playing back to back....Suns won a 3pt'er by Nash at the end of regulation in GS. Baron Davis didnt play but Richardson did...generally I think Davis is much more important to this team..GS logged some big minutes with Barnes , Ellis and most importantly Baron Davis..being 1st game back of a trip could be a flat spot...Looking at Davis season back ends havent been a problem performance wise to date but not having JRich or even Murphy might hurt them abit.....especially when they will have to run and run some more..
At first I did thnk the Over 230 looked enticing but thinking maybe its not a good spot for it...big spread...only 216 in GS...Suns 3 straight Unders and get there highest total..??? Then I look @ GS last 4 away...allowed 140 in Denver , 129 in SA , 118 in Hou and 117 in Sea with no Ray Allen...so if GS can keep this semi-close it could sail OVER...Suns getting 90 or more shots at home..??
Lean: Warriors +11.5 ...watching closely 231 o-116 and 1st H over 118-105
10 PM
LAC @ Portland
Sort of interested in being a sucker again..which means LA looks cheap at only 1.5.....The Clippers beat them 4 times last year and were never cheaper then 2.5. We need to see the injury report for LAC though...Cassell and Maggette uestionable still while Roy could return..
Blazers come home off a long trip winning last 3 legs going 4-2 but an OT away from 5-1 SU...
Bad part is Clipps stink away this year at 1-7...
I did like the improving defense on the trip so hoping for a high number I can play Under.... 183.5 not what I envisioned but with Blazers renewed def effort and LAC failing to crack 89 in 7 of the past 10 maybe it still has some value....
Sort of suprised the market is backing LAC...?? Wont back LAC if this number stays above 1.5...
Houston @ LAL
Its revenge but waiting to see how tonite ends up...Wait on TMac's status...Houston expended alot of injury to get beat on buzzer beater and the line is up to -6. Really think -4 is fair but being shorthanded is tough to figure out what it does to the team...Mings 41 minutes...?? Lets not forget Odom is gone here as well...
Just some preliminary thoughts 12 games to decipher and not looking like a great card at the moment.....
7Pm
NJ travels to Toronto
I think when a team is slumping but starts turning the corner you should be cautious if they win at home then travel as road chalk. I assume this line was set with Bosh being doubtful...cause it would seem high if is healthy. Flying under the radar is Richard Jefferson hurt his other ankle and may not play here , actually he might not even travel. The Nets were 3-2 when he missed 5 games earlier. Raps had gone 10-2 ATS previous 12 before the Bosh injury. Sort of a weird spot NJ on a 6game home stand play @ tor then have 4 more at home..NJ had shown improvement with 2 narrow losses followed by 2 wins. Would like to see Bosh here and take the home dog..
Really not much going on here. Looks like Jefferson is doubtful with Bosh listed as questionable. We have a bunch of Under trends and Tor has been in the 175 range w/o Bosh while NJ managed to overcome RJ's loss earlier at least in the scoreboard. NJ has not lit up the scoreboard away so expect a game in the low 90's..
Play: Under 191.5 -116 (Small) & Lean : Raps +3 -104 / ML +132
Miami travels to Washington
Wade will miss again , Haywood played and Thomas missed. Really going to be tough to keep up with the WIZ offensive firepower ...the key is Miami owns WIZ 10- SU & 8-2 ATS...however doesnt that give extra incentive for Washington to lay a beatdown on the shorthanded Heat?? Kick'em while there down sort of mentality...
I look at it like this Miami has already struggled on the road this season , they were just DD dogs at home to Phoenix, and there last road game they were +9 Denver and got smoked when Wade played...
I will hope this number hangs around -10 and play the Wiz at least 1stHalf...probably willing to hit hard at 10 or below..
Play: Wizards -10 -110 (Medium/Large) ..played it as Large play deciding to keep it all or noot...
NYK @ Indiana
Crazy schedules...NYK home for like 7 straight travel to Indy then go back home for four..! Ind is 7-2 at home while NYK is 7-4 ATS away...
With NY early on truly having no home court edge its hard to say what Indy being -3 @ MSG translates into. For awhile I was simply using 0 as the NYK home court factor , meaning if I was trying to figure out what there spreads were I would simply not give them anything for being at home..so if thats correct then -6 would be fair...not cheap...
Indy has been cheap for awhile and I have rode their tails but now I feel liek I alimbo with them..if this hovered above 7 I might entertain NYK..
Right now little real feel for this...I see Indy in the mid to upper 90's posibly cracking 100 which just makes this total tight...
7:30PM's
Denver travels to Boston
The Celtics have turned to Al Jefferson and that has turned the team around now winners of 3 straight after 2 tough home losses to Memphis and Phoenix..
Historically speaking the Celts have won 4 of 5 from Denver in Boston . They lost 100-99 as the lone blemish. What makes the Nuggets good enough to lay chalk?? As I said in a previous post this Denver team played basically the same Boston late last season catching 3 points and lost 106 -101 . They have traveled 10 times and played a host of Eastern Conference teams yet been favored only twice...@ Charlotte -3.5 and earlier this week @ ATL as -8. They were dogged in Philly but won , dogged by 4.5 in miami/Orlando and split , and dogged in Wash were they just got smoked. Many of those games were early on and when in my eyes DEN was undervalued. Now this time around they hit the road and dont look so good...get smoked in Dallas and Wash but rally in ATL to win easily against a College All Star team..
Boston has lost 4 straight at home but by 2,3 and 5 in the last three. The win streak plus the home slide should put some some extra urgency on this game. Nuggs play 3rd in 4 away..
guess you just have believe DEN is a 1 man show and sliding while Boston is rising...as I have said the injury to Wally allowed Green to play along with getting Tony Allen some minutes...
Despite recent scores I would have to belive this will be a up and down game like when they hosted Phoenix meaning 214 will be an attractive over but it could get cheaper...
Plays: see Bos +3.5 -110(XLarge) ML +135 (Small)
You have to think every Den game will at least see 210++ so the over could be a possibility. Waiting to see how HIGH that Boston line goes before I place it...(ML as well)
Seattle @ Cleveland
At this point with injuries mounting the Sonics are unattractive to me..Watson ( Game-Time Decision) is a must to even consider SEA with Allen out. Cavs are not good laying big numbers however they should do well when playing banged up teams like Indy recently....
the Sonics simply are to thin...
The Cavs now healthy should be able to win by DDs here jst not sure how interested I am in this game...The over was pointed and while I figured Cle for a 100 if Sea was to score 90 it would trickle under...anyway its since moved up so maybe I missed something ...Cle is a 1st H team but I think SEA could tire w/o a bench to turn to and rebounding could be an issue...
8PM's
Atlanta travels to Memphis
I can see/hear it now how can Memphis be laying 6.5 to anybody. Well if NYK can and cover then its fair with Memphis...Looks like Joe Johnson is OUT , thinking Gasol is still out and Swift is now on the injured list. What makes Memphis interesting is the play defense which could lead to an even worse FG % for ATL. Also think of it logical ...Grizz shouldnt have been laying 6.5 to Port but Blazers jumped out to a 13 pt lead and fought Memphis back all nite...even leading under a minute. It comes down to who wins and I have to think at home Memphis does NOT lose this game....
With Gasol as being back for Miami does it provide a lift?? Suprised to see Mem hit 7 early on , just think cracking 80 poins will be tough here for the Hawks..and even lean under 180...we have time to figure this one out
Philly @ Dallas
Again the Sixers may be slumping but 14! This team is competing IMO jst coming up short. Remember this the Mavs have no bench especially if Stackhouse and Anthony Johnson miss(croshere ..??). Also remember Jan 29, 2005...its the last time AI missed a game in Dallas....as 13.5 pt dogs they won SU. In all fairness the Mavs team was abit different but still similiar. Hopefully Rodney Carney is okay we need every body available...
Simply put right now I think this line is just to BIG....
Lean : Philly +15 -110 / ML +1300??
8:30
Milw @ Chi
Chi has been tough at home versus medicore teams..they already smoked the Bucks at home laying 6.5. last 10 games only 1 team has cracked 95 pts on them and its suprisingly the Hornets...Last 20 home team is 15-5 ATS...
To be honest right now I prefer to wait on some line action... I really dont have a handle on MILW right now ...they have played poorly last few and they cant be flat versus Chi here...there is a just aprt of me that makes me think they can win SU...
The UNDER has been brought up and really to me it depends on what MILW does...if they compete they make it tougher for it to hit...105 -95 slides under......Yes , the Bulls home ppg allowed look impressive...Tor and especially Minny tend to play low scoring games away and Sea was shorthanded...
Just another one of the games tonite that I feel is a few points away from going in either direction...
9PM
Kings @ Jazz
Another team I dont know what to make off..Da Kings...Jazz already beat them in SAC as an undervalued 4.5 pt dog...cant see myself laying 7 though..they did play that w/o Kirilenko and managed to outscore them in the 4th 39-17...Miller missed for Sac
Utah on an offensive run putting up 100+ last 6...
The more I look at this I see Utah has really not been laying big chalk often this year. While they have played well for the most part they have been undervalued some. The kings have played poorly away but do have 2 days rest after a rough stretch of games. They played in Dallas and SA as 8 pt dogs...just think this maybe somewhat fat...cause in my estimation Utah is still a notch below those top teams...feeling higher the 6 is fat...
Would like the over but again comes down to how close the game is or isnt...
GS @ Suns
Well Suns off a successful 5-0 trip...Warriors will be playing back to back....Suns won a 3pt'er by Nash at the end of regulation in GS. Baron Davis didnt play but Richardson did...generally I think Davis is much more important to this team..GS logged some big minutes with Barnes , Ellis and most importantly Baron Davis..being 1st game back of a trip could be a flat spot...Looking at Davis season back ends havent been a problem performance wise to date but not having JRich or even Murphy might hurt them abit.....especially when they will have to run and run some more..
At first I did thnk the Over 230 looked enticing but thinking maybe its not a good spot for it...big spread...only 216 in GS...Suns 3 straight Unders and get there highest total..??? Then I look @ GS last 4 away...allowed 140 in Denver , 129 in SA , 118 in Hou and 117 in Sea with no Ray Allen...so if GS can keep this semi-close it could sail OVER...Suns getting 90 or more shots at home..??
Lean: Warriors +11.5 ...watching closely 231 o-116 and 1st H over 118-105
10 PM
LAC @ Portland
Sort of interested in being a sucker again..which means LA looks cheap at only 1.5.....The Clippers beat them 4 times last year and were never cheaper then 2.5. We need to see the injury report for LAC though...Cassell and Maggette uestionable still while Roy could return..
Blazers come home off a long trip winning last 3 legs going 4-2 but an OT away from 5-1 SU...
Bad part is Clipps stink away this year at 1-7...
I did like the improving defense on the trip so hoping for a high number I can play Under.... 183.5 not what I envisioned but with Blazers renewed def effort and LAC failing to crack 89 in 7 of the past 10 maybe it still has some value....
Sort of suprised the market is backing LAC...?? Wont back LAC if this number stays above 1.5...
Houston @ LAL
Its revenge but waiting to see how tonite ends up...Wait on TMac's status...Houston expended alot of injury to get beat on buzzer beater and the line is up to -6. Really think -4 is fair but being shorthanded is tough to figure out what it does to the team...Mings 41 minutes...?? Lets not forget Odom is gone here as well...
Just some preliminary thoughts 12 games to decipher and not looking like a great card at the moment.....
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