Friday MLB Discussion

beimel should be available tonight, and i trust him. reliable.

however so is broxton, and i dont trust his fat gas can ass worth a lick.
 
CapTwo said:
beimel should be available tonight, and i trust him. reliable.

however so is broxton, and i dont trust his fat gas can ass worth a lick.
Click to expand...

Beimel is indeed a respectable reliever. Has a good mid 90 fastball with some movement. He rarely pitches more then 1 inning though... in the event billingsley goes 6.0ip, you have a huge gap that needs to be tag teamed with another RP.

I've watched broxton for the past few apperances. He still throws 99mph... he is NOT confident at all. The fucker blew my ingame middle of dodgers -2.5, phils +4.5 the other day with that bloop fly ball from utely. He just isn't going for the kill lately, that has to change. GL tonight.
 
Forgot to mention that I think Detroit is a good play in the first five as I don't expect Waters to be around very long. I took him very reluctantly in his first start because I played Baltimore the first night that the LAA got back from their 10 game road trip. When Balimore made that 9th ending rally on Monday, it forced me to take Waters in the second game. He was not supposed to be the minor leaguer brought up, but the other guy fizzled and Waters was supposed to be a one game fill in. When he pitched the 8 inning one hit shut out, he looked like the second coming of Palmer!

When they asked the Baltimore manager if he was going to start Waters again, He said "Is the pope German"? Unfortunately when his next start was Sunday as a -130 favorite, I did not sell the farm and go against him for the abberation on Tuesday. That is becasue I take Sunday off for church and don't want to be sweating out baseball scores that could effect my life! So today I'm still thinking Waters is on borrowed time and with the gas can Robertson going against him, the first five-1/2 and the over for a moderate wager. Since I didn't show up for the wedding last Sunday, I don't want to go too strong as he could be rebound with confidence from that first game. In that case, it would be my funeral!
 
hard to back KC here, nut said a lot already but ill add a little more

since returning from injury (a week) david dejesus is 1 for 16, something not right with him imo as he was KC's best hitter for average behind aviles who has 100+ less at bats

in the start at yankee stadium pettitte had earlier this year against KC when 6.2 ip 10 h, guillen was the big problem hitting 2 HR, including the GS with 2 outs if i recall. well guillen's average is down to .256 now and he has 5 hits in last 32 at bats (.156) with 7 strikeouts and one walk. when guillen last visited nyy he was on an absolute tear, but the long season and poor season for the royals having its effect.

kc plain and simple lacks firepower. something else that not many if anyone else has noticed is ron mahay (5-0, 2.62 era) is banged up and hasnt pitched since aug. 6th against bos when his problem first came about. he has been a huge anchor to soria and vital to kc when they have a lead late in the game.
 
Here's a reason to take the Blue Jays. Just said on SportsCenter that the Red Sox have lost the last 10 times on Ben Affleck's b-day which is today.

:36_11_6:
 
Damn guys I have to lot to reply time but I am short on time.

The skies just opened up here in NY and not sure what the situation is in the Bronx but believe thunderstorms everywhere so looking at best a delay probably a PPD ...but I am rushing and havent looked at weather reports......

GameHunter- No prob. That article was speculation though that Pettitte denied . He didnt have great stuff @ LAA but he didnt look unhealthy either . The only hit a handful of balls hard off him (literally as he took a liner) and dont feel to worry about fatigue .

I dont believe in price creating in value and well the board and I have discussed this many a time. To me the situation the game is played under creates the value when paired against the price . The Yanks will never be -125 at home vs a team like KC and probably never should be even in there inflated world .

Really what value is there in a team whis is 4-25 at NYY ? One might say they split 4 games there in 2008 and that is more relevant but they were also beaten 3-2 but 2 "unfamiliar " RHPs a trend we noticed the Yanks struggling in when they hadnt see a RHSP yet ...

I am pretty sure Meche will be off his game here. The weather is an issue and would never say pound NYY either . Just dont see enough value in KC until they get above +250 to even consider it . They just scored 2 runs in 3 games vs a WSox team they had pounded before ...

Last thing Yanks have created an obvious trend to me in 2008 and especially past few months. They beat up the sub 500 teams and lose to the "good " teams or ones above 500...have to research to validate ...

GL bro - I understand the "value" aspect but trust me when I say price alobe doesnt create value . The reason prices are made high and taken higher is to get us off the fav & make the so called value play ...:cheers::shake:


@ Pittsburgh -

Pretty basic. Price is off reflecting Mets sweep of the Nats who are inferior to Pitt especially now that they have there full lineup . Sanchez and Wilson healthy up the midle. Both LaRoche's to play the corner spots and it makes a decent lineup . Pelfrey has had career long issues on normal rest that were forgotten about during his hot streak which was mostly at home where his ERA was ridiculous @ 2.25 before the last start . Most road starts in 2008 he has allowed 4,5 runs ++ and the pen is still an issue. His best outing away is @ STL when he opposed Boggs but he was spotted alot of runs before he had to pitch think NY had an 8 spot or somethin in the T1st......3 decent road starts @ COl , @ STL @ SD ...

Davis looked real solid at SLUMPING Philly and has always had a good arm but been a mystery ...

So playing Ptt hate that NY choked that game away on Monday but the Pedro and Johan follow so they should really want to get this one seeing as I think Pedro gets his payback and due vs Duke tmrw .....

Pitt ML , +1.5 RL and over 9--pretty strong plays IMO:cheers:
 
Action- Staying on Toronto. Overreaction IMO to there series vs Texas which even Peter gammons joked about on the Michael Kay show today . Post Manny deal at home 6-0 but Oak and Texas threw no ones ....and faded Balt here ...DET -1.5 RL some ML and maybe 1st inn YES Score Prop ...
 
Rare run scored on Lee in the first inning. 1-0 Angels, tribe batting in bot of the first
 
Couldn't find that post about Waters not looking as bad as his second start showed. I wish I had read that before I was so sold that Waters was no good. Thee is a lot of great information here! Just glad I didn't make Detroit a big play or I would ahve to get another job!:smiley_acbe:
 
"I would have to get another job"

That line on Detroit was way too high with Robertson going as apparently I wasn't the only one who thought the first start was an abbreviation after his second start! The game is 4-0 last time I looked and is far from over, but I woulda/coulda/shoulda only played the total! Hindsight is 20/20!
 
This isn't baseball, but it's an olympic bet I'm placing -

Valerie Vili to win the womans shot put (+250)

She's the defending world champ, but because some Belarussian has the biggest throws since the last world champs, Vili isn't the fav.

Some background on Vili -

If Valerie Vili wins an Olympic gold medal on Super Saturday, her mind may track back to two poignant moments.


The first was eight years ago on a couch at an Auckland hospice where the then 15-year-old was keeping a vigil at the bedside of her mother Lilikia.

"We were watching the opening ceremony for the 2000 Sydney Games and I remember thinking, 'one day I want to be part of that'," Vili recalls.

"The next morning mum passed away. At that moment, it hit me. It was pretty amazing. I thought, 'I want to be there' [at the Olympics]."

The second was in an ancient amphitheatre near Athens in 2004. Valerie Adams (as she was then) was a teenager when she competed at Olympia, venue of the original Olympics.

"We all learn from our disappointments," she says. "I was a teenager back then and I finished eighth. I am 23 now. I have so much more experience under my belt."

In New Zealand we have venerated Vili as a certainty for Olympic gold since her world championship triumph in Osaka last October. She just shaded Belarus' Nadzeya Ostaphcuk in a duel which served as an Olympics precursor.

Ostapchuk . . . with a name like that, she was born to biff solid orb objects. Like Vili, she has a happy knack of tossing a 4kg metal ball out beyond 20m.

The Belarussian has delivered four of the top five throws in the world in 2008 – her streak broken only by her compatriot Natalie Mikhnevich. She has hurled the shot out to 20.98m, 20.90, 20.33 and 20.23. Vili's best have been 20.13 and 20.0m in Auckland late last summer. She recorded 19.41m at a pre-Olympics meet in Beijing last May.

Vili acknowledges Ostapchuk will be her "biggest rival". "But, to be honest, everyone will be up for it . . . you can never under- estimate anybody when you go into a competition. Ostaphcuk has been putting in some big throws lately, but that won't change the way I approach the competition."
Vili's formula is to toss out a big throw on her first or second attempt, then watch the rest of the field scramble to catch up – if they can. "You can never plan to make your biggest throw your last throw," she says.
However, she's had to at times, including at Osaka where she ousted Ostapchuk.

That is why Vili means no disrespect to Ostapchuk, Mikhnevich, Germany's Nadine Kleinert or any other rival when she says her greatest threat is "not to throw your best".

Vili can be an emotional person – after the event. When she won her Commonwealth Games gold in Melbourne two years ago, she looked skyward in Lilika's memory.

At the height of her duel with Ostapchuk in Osaka last year, her coach Kirsten Hellier exhorted her to "do it for Dad", in memory of her father who passed away the previous May.

But during competition, Vili is in the zone, the epitome of mental toughness.

Vili has said she "owed it to my mum" to persist with her sporting career, "to continue and go as hard as I could" in the early years after Lilika's passing.

Her fast-track path took her to Athens and her first Olympic experience, bitter- sweet though it was. Four years older, she is stronger, physically and mentally, and in total lockdown mode.

Just her and Hellier, her trusted coach and friend, against the world. "Being world champion doesn't mean much at an Olympic Games," she says. "All it means is that more people than normal will be trying to take you down.

"There are no second chances at an Olympics."
Click to expand...

This is one motivated woman, and the fact NZ is without a medal so far is going to fire her just that much more.
 
fucking wandy is killin me

i guess mr bipolar thought he was on the road..... hes a walking machine tonight

:sigh: looking at dodgers 1st half at the moment now
 
alright. 1.2 u on LAD 1st half/ 1u LAD game

screwers have lost 7 of 8 in dodger stadium... no braun tonight...screwers) hit RHP decently but no well on road (.246

some are worried about the pen and so am i (we discussed above, the broxton effect lol)... but in his last 5 home outings bills has gone 7 5.1 7 7.2 and CG.... he is coming off a high pitch count @ frisco but on 5 days of rest he seems to pitch well and go deep
so i think we can get 7 out of him here. beimel is available and that will take care of 1 inning.

only thing that worries me on LAD is its a good letdown spot after sweeping the phills.

parra pitched well when he last faced LAD but that was at home and way back in may. he has lost 3 of his last 4 starts and his only road outing of those he had an awful outing in cincy.
walks have been a problem too as 2 out of his last 3 games hes walked 4 batters in them.

barring one sub-par outing against atlanta in july billinglsey has been exceptional at home since a rough start in april/may. and hes had a lights out august. this is the time to ride him

nelson behind the dish should help a strikeout pitcher like bills as well. 2.49 K rate and 63.7% str%.

GL fellas
 
fuck!

wagerline had no listed ump for some reason today so i checked shortys thread
<table style="width: 658pt; border-collapse: collapse;" x:str="" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="872"><tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl25" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; width: 66pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);" height="17" width="88">Nelson</td><td class="xl27" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: red none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num="8.08" width="49">8.1</td><td class="xl25" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: red none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num="" align="right" width="49">5.6</td><td class="xl25" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 37pt; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);" x:num="13.96" align="right" width="49">14.0</td><td class="xl26" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: red none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num="0.63664000000000009" align="right" width="49">63.7%</td><td class="xl30" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: red none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num="2.4928571428571433" width="49">2.49</td><td class="xl31" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);" x:num="" align="right">0.250</td><td class="xl31" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);" x:num="1.2572706935123044" align="right">1.257</td><td class="xl32" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: red none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num="20.071588366890381" align="right">20.07</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);" x:num="" align="right">9</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);" x:num="" align="right">15</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);" x:num="" align="right">17</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);" x:num="" align="right">8</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 255);">LAD</td></tr></tbody></table>

so whos in LA tonight BC?
 
should have just checked MLB, stupid cap

ok its GORMAN, and im not too worried because his str% and k rate is high too. so good stuff

63.4% 2.04
 
yep, stating the obvious now, kinda :D

a month ago I did not see it coming, I would have said they make a run for it but now I don't think they'll even come close.


This club is in a world of hurt now.


Speaking of a world of hurt, this will be a beating for me today, lost Houston ML, Florida ML, now down in LA, Philly can't score...

Hope I don't go 0 for 4 after all.
 
Satyr said:
Speaking of a world of hurt, this will be a beating for me today, lost Houston ML, Florida ML, now down in LA, Philly can't score...

Hope I don't go 0 for 4 after all.
Click to expand...

I'm now tearing up my LAD ticket:36_11_6:

I went 0-2 earlier and I have dodgers 1stH/game as well.

Whenever we are on the same side some crazy shit happens and we end up losing.:hang:
 
let's break that tradition tonight cap :cheers:

Manny at bat, runners on corners
1 out




























now look at DP:36_11_6:
 
3rd & Long said:
Quick answer from LA, I like our chances here.
Click to expand...

I want to say i think bills will settle down after the early jack, but if i do he'll give up another:hang:

Im going to go have some drinks very shortly I cant sweat this fucking game out.
There are too many bad omens/jinxes in play if i stay in the in-game and sweat it out with yall we will lose.
 
the no DP was a good sign satyr. but if NOMAR was up in that spot you know he would have hi right into it lol

lets hope the streak ends tongiht
 
right through the infield

3:1 brewers, didnt expect this from billingsley. only 2nd inning and dodgers are at home so wouldnt get too worried
 
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