Friday MLB Discussion

my next question is should i just sit cain on my fantasy? i need k's and a win really bad. my era and whip are already screwed for the week and even though cain will get some k's i just dont see a W for him today.
 
fontenot is f*ckin hot as hell and im glad to see daryle ward get a start. i'm a big fan of his, even though im a sox fan.
 
i have no doubts cubs can score 6-8 runs but can i really trust san fran to get 3-4 runs to get this over the total?????
 
i need SN's numbers on marquis w/ extended rest. if they are bad i will no doubt be on the over.
 
public is heavy on the under though, which is the reason for the move.


NO.

PUBLIC HAS NOTHING DO TO WITH WHY IT WENT TO 11.

It was certainly wise-guy action that pounded the 11.5 flat opener down. A lot of times, they do that to (ESPECIALLY EARLY BEFORE THE MARKET OPENS) get the line cheaper. They might spend 3K at CRIS and 3K at Greek and 5K at Pinnacle and next thing you know, they have invested only 11K or so to get the line down to where they can really pound the other side. The same group that bet 10K on the UNDER 11.5 is really looking for 50K at OVER 11.

See what I mean?

I do think it will go back up; but only time will tell...
 
DAMN CKR, very valid point. i've never thought of it like that, but you are absolutely correct. thank you sir.:shake:
 
lol bro. Not hot. I've got my educational hat on today. Teaching new clerks about the software we're using this year; might as well teach the CTG Community about why the line moves the way it does sometimes...
 
i need SN's numbers on marquis w/ extended rest. if they are bad i will no doubt be on the over.

Tough spot to figure Jimbo. Marquis was skipped last time and his last start was the game @ SFG which is a place in 5 career starts he has exceled. This year general much better pitcher on the road and much better in day starts . So simply being home is not his best situation.

So he was skipped or pushed back in early May and pitched on the 9th day(8 days rest) vs SD and was medicore 5.2 inn 9 h 4 runs but really seemed to be just a bad 4th inning where they scored all his runs .

Cain has 6 career starts vs Cubbies 4 excellent and 2 poor. So another extreme scenario as he was excellent 2 weeks ago vs them (poor @ Wrigley in 07 but excellent in 06).

Very important here and UNLIKE yesterday with 2 flyball pitchers is Marquis lives on his 2 seamer ( being a STL product ) and allowed but 8Hrs all year . Cain has allowed 12 Hrs but NONE in his past 6 starts and 2 in his past 8 starts . Also very important Fuki sitting takes away there toughest LH bat and Edmonds is another head scratching sit (see his day and Wrigley numbers) .

Current Roster 16-86 vs Cain with 7 bbs 25Ks 1hr 5 rbi think 13-52 current lineup .

Marquis home scores :
16 ,14 ,17 7,7, 12 , 18 , 15

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Home</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>6.29</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>44.1</TD><TD align=right>59</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>31</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.321</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Away</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3.38</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>48.0</TD><TD align=right>41</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.234</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Day</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>4.56</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>47.1</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.269</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Night</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>5.00</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>45.0</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>25</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>.288</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>5.12</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>51.0</TD><TD align=right>54</TD><TD align=right>31</TD><TD align=right>29</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>28</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.271</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>4.00</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>36.0</TD><TD align=right>38</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>.275</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Last 7 Appearances</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>4.54</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>41.2</TD><TD align=right>37</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.234</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Last year 7-2 in day games with a .240 BAA and extra rest 6-2 4.15 in10 starts .234 BAA (.262 on normal)

Definetly better in day starts and extra rest scenarios past few seasons then normal rest and night games IMO. SFG Winn 7-16 2hrs and Aurilia 6-17 1 HR are the 2 guys who hit him. Otherwise 2-26 . Lewis is 2-4 as well. So 15-37 for 3 guys and the rest 2-26 .

Cain has been TERRIBLE in day games so far . .

SFG 22-10 OVER in day games .....Cubs at home 4-0 Over with 11+ totals

SF had 9 Hits the entire mets series and Cubs only had 26 but managed 19runs .

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Day</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>6.31</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>41.1</TD><TD align=right>43</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>29</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.272</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Night</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3.23</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>78.0</TD><TD align=right>66</TD><TD align=right>29</TD><TD align=right>28</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>29</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>77</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.231</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

His day stats dont add up seems every jam produces runs as .272 BAA isnt terrible enought to produce a 6.31 ERA . So some bad breaks ...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3.63</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>86.2</TD><TD align=right>73</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>80</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.230</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>7.33</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>27.0</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.311</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Hard to pass an OVER here but I just dont like it . Just totally different scenario then yesterday . Reds are a HR team and hit 7 while SFG is the lowest Hrs in the NL at like 57 facing a sinkerball pitcher who does struggle @ Wrigley because the ball does carry . Cain could really miss alot of bats today .......Dont like that yesterdays game made the over look so easy .....

Played : SFG 1st to score prop and probably gonna play SFG 1st 5 ml or game ML small ......expected Cubs to be higher here on the open like -160 -165..:cheers:
 
Good luck guys I am going to not bet this game I feel like I one of the only people who like the under. I know the wind is crazy and SF stinks and the over is 7-2 last 9 games as a cub favorite. I just dont see and over

I look at

the game that went under when both pitchers played

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/01/08</TD><TD class=datacell>SF 2 - CHC 1</TD><TD class=datacell>SF -117</TD><TD class=datacell>U 7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>Matt Cain </TD><TD class=datacell>8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>Jason Marquis </TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

that was not the long ago since then

cubs scored
6,3,2,4,7,7,5,7

Giants scored
5,8,7,2,3,0,0,3

I looked at their 5 road games before that and they scored 11,1,1,1 and 4 except for the 11 game they are just not scoring on the road


I talked myself out of it I think , I read what you guys wrote and it counters what i think, so I wont bet it and cheer for you guys
:shake:
 
Tough one DJ no need to force . I played alot of small shit usually waste of money but figured what the hell.

@ Wrigley :
Giants 1st team to score -135 (1u)
Giants +140 (1u)
Under 11 Runs -110 (1/2unit)
Parlay : SF +1.5 to under 11 (1/2unit pays like 1.25 u)
SFG +220 series (1/2unit) - figure if they win today could have Lincecum @ +220 in essence ......

Could be a quick way to piss away 4 units but hopefully I get the 5-4 type game I expect ..:cheers:
 
you did go with the under....I like the giants first team to score especially since i thought it was going to be a 5-2 kind of cubs win...hope they score 1st for ya
 
you did go with the under....I like the giants first team to score especially since i thought it was going to be a 5-2 kind of cubs win...hope they score 1st for ya

Real small . Often I come to certain conclusions and pass on my reads . Only to be pissed later on. So lately if the game is still on the board been trying to drop a small play on it and try to teach myself to trust my more illogical conclusions that are rational . By the time I submitted my thoughts it was 2:17 and probably got the under in at 2:21 ...hopefully I get a few wins to at least break even...

Cain missing bats ...3Ks so far but the walk , HBP and full count to Soto werent that smooth but only 21 pitches for such a long inning . :cheers:
 
I also went small on the Away ML today (.75u) @ +150 .

My guess is that SFG if they are to win this prop scores in the top 4 th. Would be nice to see it happen now though since Cubs have 1-2-3 next inning
 
SN, any thoughts on the Mets game?

Not SN, but I think it would be wise to stay away from this game. Don't be fooled by Perez. His last two starts came against two teams he generally pitches well against. The Rockies hit him well and hit LHP well in general. However the Rockies are 14-33 on the road and the Amusins are playing well lately. I think the Mets probably lose tonight and take the next two, but I've burned a lot of money this season playing the likes of Colorado, Cleveland etc. when things looked slightly favorable for them and I see no reason to play either side.
 
Not SN, but I think it would be wise to stay away from this game. Don't be fooled by Perez. His last two starts came against two teams he generally pitches well against. The Rockies hit him well and hit LHP well in general. However the Rockies are 14-33 on the road and the Amusins are playing well lately. I think the Mets probably lose tonight and take the next two, but I've burned a lot of money this season playing the likes of Colorado, Cleveland etc. when things looked slightly favorable for them and I see no reason to play either side.
Thanks for the feedback :shake:

I think the opposite actually, I think the Mets win tonight, then perhaps lose tomorrow, no clue on the third game as of yet. I think Cook will be exposed as a mediocre road pitcher, Perez is the one who needs to improve his numbers (read: get them back into his normal zone).

Rockies are still horrid on the road, despite the fact they took 2 in Milwaukee.

GL tonight
 
Thanks for the feedback :shake:

I think the opposite actually, I think the Mets win tonight, then perhaps lose tomorrow, no clue on the third game as of yet. I think Cook will be exposed as a mediocre road pitcher, Perez is the one who needs to improve his numbers (read: get them back into his normal zone).

Rockies are still horrid on the road, despite the fact they took 2 in Milwaukee.

GL tonight

After further review, Saturday's game between these two should be a crapshoot, maybe even slightly favoring the Rockies. However Sunday's matchup strongly favors the Mets. Pelfrey at home is really strong and the lines are still good when he pitches.

Mets -1.5, -2.5 on Sunday should be a 'play of the month' bet.
 
I like Halladay but jesus christ - where are the Blue Jays going to score runs? RIOS is out tonight for personal issues.

No Rios, No Wells... Fat Stairs batted cleanup last night and I thought that was bad enough.
 
Played Cubs small rl and ml. Really going to have to not Watch the 9th inning anymore.
 
Had the Cubs RL early and about shit my pants. I had Seattle, Baltimore, and Detroit yesterday - what a beating. I was clearly wrong on the CLE battle last night, luckily all the banter made me scale my bet down. The under got blown out too, so sort of a tough go at it yesterday. Oh well, thems the breaks.

Actually had work to do today, so have not been able to analyze. Maybe I will do myself a favor and ride someone's coattails today.
 
Played Minn first 5. Interesting game. One way of looking at it is Detroit having lost a game they should have won will come back and crush Minn. Call it the SportsNut Theorem. Another is this is classic conman and mark. Minn 8-2 last 10 vs Detroit Most of Detroits wins being against weak teams at home. Will observe Detroit does seem to have an edge in pen tonight.
But whatever happens in the game what about early? Galarraga is on 5 days rest. On a short sample he has an era of 5.25. In his last 5 home starts he has been hit for 5 runs early by Boston, Minn and the Cardinals. This is the 4th time he has faced Minn and they have nailed him for 4 runs, 5 runs and 4 runs with him never going past 6 innings.
Perkins actually does not seem a good fit for Minn. He likes playing in the open and really does not like pitching in Minn at night. All his numbers are tilted by 2 games where he got hammered at home and at night. He has faced Detroit and dominated them home and away going 14 innings and giving up 3 runs. Last 10 vs Lefties Detroit is hitting 299 while vs righties Minn is hitting 339. Detroit has fewer at bats vs Perkins then Minn has vs Galarraga and has done much worse. A careful review of Minn at Boston also indicates they will not be automaticly dominated early. I took 31 cents. GL
 
Well hit the Cubbies RL. Was listening on the radio at work the updated and heard in the 7th it was 0-0 till I got out of work I thought I lost. Usually how my day games go but I hit it which was a good start to the day. At this point I'm thinking CLEV, TEX and BALT
 
Taking CLEV b/c It's Lee, he's a lefty, and TB slumping. If Clev hits today than I'm thinking TB 2marrow. We shall see.

Also Taking BALT. Should have some momentum after that tough loss yesterday. Line is skyrocketing for who the hell Bucholtz thinks he is. Burres has had trouble this year and has many Walks to his name. Already got killed vs Boston. I feel he is better than his record. Boston is hitting well vs lefties 13-4 record. Boston way overratted and comming off that killing of minny game. Going against all ODDS on this 1. Gimme the 2:1 price
 
I put a token bet on Cleveland today. Had to bet because of Lee & my position on TBYs form, but don't like the fact they scored 13 yesterday, so couldnt begin to be really serious about amounts, esp. with their pen.
 
I hear ya BC. Yesterday was the game for Clev. Today should be their's as well but hard to go much with this type of team.
 
No blood. Tie after 5 but Minn had 2 more hits with the same number of walks. Maybe greedy. Could have taken .5 for small negative money and won.
 
Thanks for the feedback :shake:

I think the opposite actually, I think the Mets win tonight, then perhaps lose tomorrow, no clue on the third game as of yet. I think Cook will be exposed as a mediocre road pitcher, Perez is the one who needs to improve his numbers (read: get them back into his normal zone).

Rockies are still horrid on the road, despite the fact they took 2 in Milwaukee.

GL tonight


Lets say I was almost definite the mets won this series . I got distracted and missed this one. I am extremely confident Mets take either Sat or Sunday but will have to look closer before I leap into Sat . As I said I extremely confident Mets win this series as I am Cubs and Philly do as well . Hope you played it . :shake:
 
Played Minn first 5. Interesting game. One way of looking at it is Detroit having lost a game they should have won will come back and crush Minn. Call it the SportsNut Theorem. Another is this is classic conman and mark. Minn 8-2 last 10 vs Detroit Most of Detroits wins being against weak teams at home. Will observe Detroit does seem to have an edge in pen tonight.
But whatever happens in the game what about early? Galarraga is on 5 days rest. On a short sample he has an era of 5.25. In his last 5 home starts he has been hit for 5 runs early by Boston, Minn and the Cardinals. This is the 4th time he has faced Minn and they have nailed him for 4 runs, 5 runs and 4 runs with him never going past 6 innings.
Perkins actually does not seem a good fit for Minn. He likes playing in the open and really does not like pitching in Minn at night. All his numbers are tilted by 2 games where he got hammered at home and at night. He has faced Detroit and dominated them home and away going 14 innings and giving up 3 runs. Last 10 vs Lefties Detroit is hitting 299 while vs righties Minn is hitting 339. Detroit has fewer at bats vs Perkins then Minn has vs Galarraga and has done much worse. A careful review of Minn at Boston also indicates they will not be automaticly dominated early. I took 31 cents. GL


I have a theroem now whats next ? Good stuff Tuck I did play the Twinkies ML and +1.5 RL. Your post was pretty close to what I was thinking . Basically if we look at the past week for each team what stands out is that Minnesota actually didnt play poorly in Boston ( lost twice in the 8th inning and game 3 get blown open late ) and Det didnt play that well vs Sea or Cle (all close except Sowers who should change to Jeremy Sour . ) . After Det gave that game away yesterday some might think I would be saying its Det turn to bounce back but thats not my point in these situations. There has to be a beginning and then and end . My original point was Det won a game vs Cle it had no business winning . I had Cle 1st 5 ML and ML so I was quite aware of that game. No business winning but they won so I use to my advantage next day . Usually the extreme opposite happens in that it will lose a game it had no business losing . It happened almost way to easily in the afternoon tilt . We both had some comments about it late as it went extras and said just the way these work I think Twins win and they did . My good memory has always been a blessing and a curse . Anyway Det blows the 6-2 lead and falls in extras . That happens it case closed in my book. Its not something that I am going to keep using for a team it starts then it ends . Fresh start afterwards . All things are equal again.

So today I simply felt Minny was playing better baseball going in . Perkins was pitching better and deeper then Galarraga . Really if I was going to make a line for this game I would expect Det -130 tops anything else I saw as value for Minny. So yeah it worked out for me .

I know you mentioned Balt at some point 1st 5 inning ?? Did you play that ? I was all about Balt and sort of scaled back on it as the price kept skyrocketing . I thought -180 tops for it and it close -240 at my book and jusr felt like I was missing something . Had a fucking migraine as well . Burres now 7-0 in extra rest. The only shit part well 2 minor shit parts is I had the Under 10 and it pushed but then again Sox had bases loaded in the 9th and my damn book was fucked up and didnt offer 1st 5 inn lines so I couldnt hit that up. Basically had ML and +1.5 but loved the 1st 5 inn that I believed you mentioned . Again felt like everyone would bail on the O's after blwoing that game yesterday and well I know teams usually bounce back quickly if they dont its usually a severe losing streak.

Think Boston takes games 2 and 3 though .....

:cheers:
 
Lord I can talk now......Had a wicked Trojan virus on my computer for the last 2 days....Had to restore the whole thing.....Been doing well though only 2 plays today were Cubs and Rocks FF.Went big on Cubs won and didnt wanna ruin my day so went with FF small Rocks and pushed
 
Lets make some money tomorrow fellas....Just went over my number at Betjm the last 2 weeks and I'm hitting at a 70% clip right now...Lovely
 
Yankees cocked me tonight. Research told me Halladay owns the Yanks, but went on NY based on the fact that Toronto's lineup stinks and the Yankees have to produce some runs with that lineup, right? WRONG. :hang:
 
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