Friday discussion thread
- Thread starter 2daBank
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I dunno how they opened kc +130, that just feels redic. It’s like pricing cardinals better than cubs w a bad pitching matchup. Kc got hit fast I dunno if line creep more down? I can’t imagine anyone laying juice w o’s for me it any plus money with kc or nothing. Think I saw possible weather prob make me pass if a delay looks possible so guess we just see where line and rain go.
Minute I saw price on reds I tried to justify nats of course! -170ish is like the toughest type mlb game for me I think, the fav is generally justified at this price but they really win this game at that clip? Not when I bet the fav they don’t, think I pick +105 dogs than -170 favs so why bet them? At same time let’s give me and @Marsski guy Hunter Greene props for looking like we been talking bout this dude being once he learned to throw strikes!!! He been so good I couldn’t play Nats w a pitcher I think can hold reds lineup to a reasonable number but he don’t miss bats at above average level and one day in a small park walks will get him killed while his opponent has a 43-6 k:bb that Geeene does!! In 36 innings, he was basically an automatic 8 k’s every start in April, I havnt looked if he historically better early but I’d guess not he just that dude now. I think vs a contact team like Nats his k price be high so dunno what there is to play in this game. I just wanted to talk bout Greene and how he proving @Marsski spot on bout his reds Hurler!
Minute I saw price on reds I tried to justify nats of course! -170ish is like the toughest type mlb game for me I think, the fav is generally justified at this price but they really win this game at that clip? Not when I bet the fav they don’t, think I pick +105 dogs than -170 favs so why bet them? At same time let’s give me and @Marsski guy Hunter Greene props for looking like we been talking bout this dude being once he learned to throw strikes!!! He been so good I couldn’t play Nats w a pitcher I think can hold reds lineup to a reasonable number but he don’t miss bats at above average level and one day in a small park walks will get him killed while his opponent has a 43-6 k:bb that Geeene does!! In 36 innings, he was basically an automatic 8 k’s every start in April, I havnt looked if he historically better early but I’d guess not he just that dude now. I think vs a contact team like Nats his k price be high so dunno what there is to play in this game. I just wanted to talk bout Greene and how he proving @Marsski spot on bout his reds Hurler!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
@KJ , how can all the west be playoff teams? I guess there 3 wild cards now plus div winner? so it possible if Rockies can stay historically bad. Snakes have a bad break being out west, I still think they better than giants but I’m not being 100% fair to sf other than feeling like they flying bit high cause i don’t know that team as well as rest.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Giants play a ton of smart ball. They take chances on the basepaths, and convert singles into doubles, and doubles into triples more than any team. Landon Roupp started with the nastiest curve in April, but teams seemed to have figured him out already. I was thinking if guys like him can turn into the real deal, they could even hang with the Padres.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Hayden Birdsong is another one who they've relegated to long relief, which is not a bad idea at all either. Verlander should improve, but his slider is almost 2MPH slower than previous seasons, yet his other pitches are a tick higher. Hicks has been very unlucky 6.00ERA vs 3.95 xERA. Walkrate lowest of his career so far. I'm a sucker for the Giants, they have the best pbp booth both on TV and Radio, and it's like a masterclass of baseball viewing as a fan.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i don’t think I can name 3 everyday starters, kinda embarrassing but they clearly wernt a team I focused on 1st 2 weeks I had handful of teams on radar and they never played. I been trying to get everything figured out this week and feel pretty good bout the teams I was following at 1st. Not so much these guys and seeing -275!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Giants are good, but this is more to do with how historically bad the Rockies are. 6 wins, -75 run diff already.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Giants and cards were kinda identical for a decade or so, sf bounced cards from playoffs most the years they didn’t make WS. Of course they smart the entire franchise is, man I’ve missed that last 5 years! Giants are great at fixing or shaping pitchers also, pretty sure half the league is now training and doing the things giants did w pitchers 3 years ago.
Great comeback last night in Anaheim for the Tigers.
Two great NHL games but Clips and Nugs I honestly clicked off after 7th inning and missed the rally.
Shout-out @BiffTFinancial with Casey Mize outs prop on his birthday. I texted someone about that off site and they immediately said "sounds like a play Bank would make" lolol.
Tonight, Scooby with his first road start since the 4 hitter at Milwaukee on April 14th. He's gotten better and better (ERA dipping) as we've gotten into this season.
One note on Detroit -- they've only had one scheduled day off since April 10th. That was last Thursday. Yes, a rainout Friday, but double dip right after.
One bonus note -- We cut Maeda and are that contract. Had to be done. Nice guy and I feel bad for him but this is an aspiring champ team and that's not getting it done with him in long relief.
Two great NHL games but Clips and Nugs I honestly clicked off after 7th inning and missed the rally.
Shout-out @BiffTFinancial with Casey Mize outs prop on his birthday. I texted someone about that off site and they immediately said "sounds like a play Bank would make" lolol.
Tonight, Scooby with his first road start since the 4 hitter at Milwaukee on April 14th. He's gotten better and better (ERA dipping) as we've gotten into this season.
One note on Detroit -- they've only had one scheduled day off since April 10th. That was last Thursday. Yes, a rainout Friday, but double dip right after.
One bonus note -- We cut Maeda and are that contract. Had to be done. Nice guy and I feel bad for him but this is an aspiring champ team and that's not getting it done with him in long relief.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’ve known him a few years longer than you guys, I think he came over here after I suggested or I like to take credit for it anyways! Didn’t know it was his bday, happy belated @BiffTFinancial.
Is asking someone to pick Meada up and start him a few times asking to much? I love that guy!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
BiffTFinancial
Local Heat Tracker
Thanks for the kind words and respect @B.A.R. and @2daBank - it was actually Mize's birthday, not mine, haha. Glad he came through for us. And Banker you can definitely take credit for bringing me over here so long as you take credit for my long-term inability to post winning threads...
Looking at GSW ML as a parlay piece tonight, need to find some juiced MLB props with which to pair it.
Looking at GSW ML as a parlay piece tonight, need to find some juiced MLB props with which to pair it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I planned on taking a nap like 3-4 hours ago but I been starting to get a little manic which Is fine I can’t take anymore depressed
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I dunno how else you could play it other than warriors? I was thinking I’d prob lay 4 or 5 but now at 5.5 little hesitant and prob rather go ml also. Def props or nhl my preferred way to go as we know I don’t really have much success picking mlb favs in the -170-180s range. I havnt really looked at props still, I guess reds 1st 5 if I did a side but rather wait little bit and find a prop or 2 to choose from w you.
You used to do season long threads at sbr back in day right? I know that where we started talking. Those threads were only ones I recall and I thought you were pretty much always in the black.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
@VirginiaCavs doesn’t wanna talk to me so @B.A.R. You might have to change my picture for me, lol. I know I put this picture up but trying to change for some reason was more difficult. I don’t want any of my pictures just a meme or whatever the generic ones called with a team or something I don’t care, I just don’t wanna look at Theresa and me Xmas shopping all happy from years ago all summer, I can’t do it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Lmfao. Holy fuck. He missed the freaking lefty batter box!
Understood.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Now could you get st Jude’s to stop w the adds? I know they need money, I give them money, I thought these were just around Xmas time then someone brought it to my attention it may! I don’t even have to see it soon as the music comes on. Everyone should give to them but in return they should only get like a month w the sad fucking adds!
Ok I’m done now.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Outside maybe 1 or 2 day starts I hardly played him. Feel like they have pretty much priced him to have to be perfect pitching for a crap team since the beginning.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Seperate or together you like playoff Jimmy points or dimes overs? That where im looking for 1, 21.5 points and gs ml +135. Havnt seen a mlb prop w juice I liked yet ive leaned more to the plus money so far.
BiffTFinancial
Local Heat Tracker
Yeah they were in the black over there but haven't had as much luck over here, though I also haven't tried many. Lot less time for capping now that I have 4 kids so I'm just super grateful to be able to come to this site and find a coupla picks to tail without the drama so many other sites have.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
BiffTFinancial
Local Heat Tracker
I think Jimmy props make a lot of sense, either points or over. The way that Amen Thompson is defending Curry really is forcing the ball out of his hands and making it harder to get good looks when he does have it. The result is the ball in Jimmy's hands a lot more as both playmaker and scorer which frankly was part of the point of the trade (needing someone other than Steph to create for himself and others). Gonna dig in now and give it a longer look but hard not to like points over 21', assists over 5' or PA over 28' (though it feels like that last one has slightly less value than the others mathematically).
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I got +136 w ov 21.5 and warriors ml. Think I’ll play over 5.5 dimes straight or with something mlb but I suppose I could put it with warriors just the same, pretty confident they win and he good, he hit both games he played at home and they just took a pass on game 5 saying they know they can finish here. Gotta take them at their word.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If I didn’t hate unders and love Greene so much I’d say under 7.5 k’s but no chance I’m paying -200 to play something i wont enjoy, lol.
Why is fried swing and miss lower than even his norms which never been ace like?
TenPin832
Here For The Show
One my kids texted me and said here's your birthday wish granted,Maeda got cut happy birthday Lol
BiffTFinancial
Local Heat Tracker
The under I'm eying is Mitch Keller Ks under 4' (-140). His K rate is weak and the Pads have been great at avoiding Ks this season.
Good question on Fried - maybe some combination of struggling with the pressures of pitching in NYC (though you'd think AL hitters' lack of familiarity with him would be a plus) and age (he's 31 now)? Advanced stats say negative regression is coming, so it's not as if he's been unlucky. Wish I could give a better answer.
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
I appreciate Skenes' talent as much as the next guy, and i too have noticed a difference in his performance.
During his second or 3rd start this year, the announcers were talking about a change in his arm slot. For what reason he changed it, they did not discuss.
PErhaps it has something to also do with the addition of new pitches to the arsenal. Last year Pit had an 8-3 road record in games he started versus 7-5 at home. In 2025 Pit is 2-1 on the road and 1-3 at home. Not super ground braking, but something to keep an eye on. And he is giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year it seems.
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
According to a recent broadcast, Jose Altuve suggested to management that they should move SS Jeremy Pena to the leadoff spot to use him in a more efficient spot in the lineup.
In 17 at bats as the #1 hitter this year, Pena has a .471 avg, OBP of .526, a 765 SLG% and an OPS of 1.291. All of these at bats came in the last 4 games where the started was a RHP.
CWS are starting RHP Jonathan Cannon. Against right handed batters he aports a .246 avg, .361 obp, 393 slg%, and an ops of .755.
Pena vs RHP in general this year has a .277 avg, .349 obp, .457 slg%, and an ops of .807.
IVe played a parlay of over .5 hits with over 1.5 bases. It pays +120
In 17 at bats as the #1 hitter this year, Pena has a .471 avg, OBP of .526, a 765 SLG% and an OPS of 1.291. All of these at bats came in the last 4 games where the started was a RHP.
CWS are starting RHP Jonathan Cannon. Against right handed batters he aports a .246 avg, .361 obp, 393 slg%, and an ops of .755.
Pena vs RHP in general this year has a .277 avg, .349 obp, .457 slg%, and an ops of .807.
IVe played a parlay of over .5 hits with over 1.5 bases. It pays +120
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Keller under looks solid he got stuck w pirates and never learned how to miss bats, most my over cashes with him come cause innings volume so if it lined 17.5 outs or less no sense playing over k’s. I’d say 5 a pretty big stretch unless he goes thru lineup 3+ times.
Fried always been little volume also without the great swing and miss im
Just curious why it has fallen off so much this year and he got the biggest era/metrics gap of career which the regression you speak of. You can’t trust rays to hit him tho can you? Pepiot prob more likely to hit his number if he can pitch 5 innings.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I got rained on pretty much my entire 1st walk of year. Cardinals Mets will play but gonna have to maybe get little wet.
Looks like lot of storms heading straight for Cincy which id think leans into Greene under k’s or pass. Will they play? Im not sure. Maybe another double dip.
Jorge polomco has emerged in Seattle but why are righties throwing him sinkers? At worst he fouls those off and spits on good off speed and crushes any velo in heart of plate. Bat speed is faster, someone tell me he didn’t work out with my juicer buddy tatis jr this offseason? I’m cool with it but it sucks a drug tester can crush Seattle offense whenever they want,, maybe they have figured out how to pass again? I would.
Looks like lot of storms heading straight for Cincy which id think leans into Greene under k’s or pass. Will they play? Im not sure. Maybe another double dip.
Jorge polomco has emerged in Seattle but why are righties throwing him sinkers? At worst he fouls those off and spits on good off speed and crushes any velo in heart of plate. Bat speed is faster, someone tell me he didn’t work out with my juicer buddy tatis jr this offseason? I’m cool with it but it sucks a drug tester can crush Seattle offense whenever they want,, maybe they have figured out how to pass again? I would.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Can’t believe Stros let bregs walk and traded ticker to cubs, did they see their offense without tucker last fall? My guy Yordan is batting life without those dudes around him! Bregs been a beast for Red Sox and Tucker transformed cubs lineup. Why not just let him walk after next year what did Stros get to move before season?
BiffTFinancial
Local Heat Tracker
Played Keller outs under + GSW ML at +134
Also eying Bregman and Wilmer Flores HRR overs both -115
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
First band of lightning/t-storms is just hitting Churchill Downs now and heading for Cinci. Hard storm. Supposed to be a maybe 45 min/hour break then a bigger less violent band is supposed to hit then rain through most of tomorrow morning. Can't see any way they get that Reds game in.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I was looking at Suarez or gruchuck both plus money over 1.5 bases. Both can crush a lefty even tho I love Jesus luzardo and he only given up 1 bomb this year. No extra base hits to zona lineup, only few AB’s each. Grichuck has a 105 exit velo on 3 at bats, +114 seems like a play to me he must not have the at bats cause zona and thus far not seeing a ton of lhp I guess?
I was gonna look at Bregs shortly.
BiffTFinancial
Local Heat Tracker
Completely wrote off the Dbacks/Phils game when Eddings was announced as ump but I couldn't get there on the under when I capped it. I'm in the corner pouting because I can't play an Eddings under haha
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I didn’t know he was behind plate. I’m stopped capping umps but there still the ones we just know. That makes Kelly er under more appealing.
Grichuck ov .5 hit/gs ml +120
Grichuck ov 1.5 total bases +114 solo
