There a lot of decent k props out there tonight but kinda tough to decipher which are best and not sure I’m looking to play them all, let’s talk bout the ones I lean!
Peterson ov 5.5. I mean he has gotten killed thanks to giving up a ton of bombs, not sure Braves the lineup you want to see to fix that? But his k:bb is good, his swinging strike been a very solid 12.5% ish the last 2 seasons and we know Braves strike out a lot!! The question is can he avoid getting tan from the game? Mets have mostly let him pitch 5+ innings even when giving up games, they can’t afford to have him not eat some innings so unless it a total disaster you would think they keep running him out to save the pen, if that the case you would think he get plenty of k’s, he just might give up bunch of runs also! I wanna say he gonna get better but I trusted him against a much better matchup w giants and he sucked! He has had some solid starts vs Braves but he gotta stop serving up meatballs. I’m super tempted here since Mets seem content letting him get the innings and Braves gonna strike out most nights!!
Im looking at both manoah and Castillo at 5.5 k’s. Castillo be the easy pick except he facing the tougher lineup. Still gotta lean Castillo as even tho manoah looked to figure things out his last start in NY where he was very good he only fanned 4 against a very high strikeout yankess team. Think I rather play seattle under runs against him or just the Ff under with these 2 and look to back Castillo k’s as my dude is pretty much matchup proof imo, think we getting a little value since there rightfully respect for jays lineup but when Castillo on it don’t matter, he can mow down any lineup in baseball!! This Ff under 4.5 screaming at me along w Castillo k’s!
What am I gonna do with flaherty? His last few starts been very promising, I don’t blame him that Marmol fucked up sending him out for the 7th against zona. The problem in that game even tho he was good he had a grand total of 4 swinging strikes! That just isn’t what flaherty should be! He did come back his last start and had the punch outs cooking against a struggling seattle lineup. Dodgers have a lot of swing and miss, Jack likes pitching back at home, I have pretty decent confidence he will be good tonight, just not sure I trust the strikeouts? Think I prefer the Ff under as mentioned I don’t see cards scoring but 1-2 runs at most off May. I think flaherty can hold dodgers to 1-2 runs thru 5 also, 4.5 a pretty good under to play imo. Better than flaherty k’s I think.
Eflin ov 4.5 k’s. The plus money on this one makes it very appealing to me, I don’t love cws seeing him for 2md straight start but that offense can’t hit rhp for shit!! Park should play big with chilly air and bit of a in breeze. I expect Efflin will be able to go 5+ innings without running into much trouble vs this lineup. His k:bb ratio been fantastic, his swinging strike the best his career thus far, normally at this age I might say it early season variance but no surprise he went to one the smartest teams in baseball and they have drastically changed his pitch mix to what I assume will be optimal levels since the rays know what they doing! The one concern I have here is pretty much the opposite of why I lean peterson, rays have a history of pulling starters early much more than leaving them in too long, certainly can’t blame them with the lock down pen but it frustrating for our purposes. He was pitching great last game with only 1 run thru 5 innings and only at 67 pitches and rays still pulled him after 5, we don’t wanna see that as I feel like 6 innings the magic number, if he goes 6 I have little doubt he fans at least 5! He could certainly punch 5 in 5 innings, I actually think a 5 inning start would make it close to 50/59 which where the plus money comes in! However if he is allowed to come out for the 6th inning then I think chances he gets 5+ k’s shoots up quite a bit to the point this would be a incredible bet at the price! His 15.5 out number doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence he allowed to pitch past the 5th tho. I guess the thing is I still think at +110 it’s a long term
winning bet, it just turns into a great bet if he goes longer. I think it worth it: he was cominv off extended rest before this last start, prior to that they allowed him to throw 82 pitches in a 6 inning start. That another thing, he been very efficient as his pitch count has been very low for the points he being taken out. Adding that cutter im sure had gotten him more quick outs allowing him to throw less pitches.
Anyways that what I’m looking at. Any thoughts are welcome as I try to work out what I think the best ones might be. Whether I agree with your take or not it in no means a negative and actually helps me a great deal so don’t be shy!!
