Friday Discussion Thread

Post your plays Bank and I’ll play every one of em.

I gotta cash a ticket downtown CBD and I’ll ride
 
That as much time I’m spending on rox/seattle, that game doesn’t really fit into my strong dog narrative for the day.

1st glance cubs interest me, anyone know if Swanson went on dl? I know he left game few days ago then missed the next but that it.
 
twinkie13 said:
Post your plays Bank and I’ll play every one of em.

I gotta cash a ticket downtown CBD and I’ll ride
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I got you. I’ll post’em just like I play them when I do. The sides for sure. The k props I’ll try but I’m prob gonna get different line on few of those cause I’m planning on crossing river here in few minutes and playing those on app cause they prob gonna get moved. All the sides in the round robins I’m playing at casino, gonna try to smash and cash w those! (Fingers crossed).
 
Hoping twins make it a game and get a few yanks better pen guys to throw lot of pitches, maybe have them short a guy or 2 come Sunday when it Lopez vs Cole!
 
I really didn’t expect to see tampa take a bunch of overnight money, I wonder if that being pushed a certain way to buy back? there prob a good chance normal folk jump on that side when they start making plays. I’d think jays take money at some point. I like a lot about Rasmussen which makes playing jays a little tougher, especially cause I don’t particularly like screwing with berrios games as he has been tough for me to figure out from start to start since joining Toronto. That said we know 3 things here are very true, berrios ain’t close to a gas can and his era will fall sooner than later, rays ain’t this massive offensive powerhouse they have appeared to be thus far, I like them but let’s be serious! 3rd Rasmussen has the kind of swing and miss that will have me playing his k props a lot, maybe even here, but his era is obviously going up sooner than later! Those 3 things all say jays if ppl keep betting tampa up. I do hate fading baseball win streaks but I’d say a 4th thing is almost a given, rays win streak will most likely end in Toronto. Those things all just common sense to me.
 
I wish I had a better idea on what Syndergaard is these days. One thing he hasn’t been in some time is thor by any stretch. That doesn’t mean he can’t be or isn’t a solid Mlb starter tho, it just way different. Way back with the Mets his stuff was filthy but I’d say he was far from pinpoint, now days his stuff is pretty average I think is fair to say but he seems to be locating a lot better. It not super uncommon to see a guy lose stuff and still be good. I’ve watched it with wainwright for years. Cc was a good example of that. I think both those guys had better breaking balls than thor, thor slider has pace more than lots of break and he losing pace along with the long gone heater. 2 starts this year gives me nothing, he wasn’t dominant in his 1st start that turned out fantastic vs snakes, maybe it shouldn’t have been shocking snakes rocked him in zona in a much tougher park for pitchers in b2b starts seeing him. Makes it pretty much impossible for me to say what he be like today, he hasn’t walked anyone and average stuff located well will probably play ok most nights in dodger stadium.

I kinda like some things bout cubs lineup, I’d like to know if Swanson playing tho cause they obviously better when he in, all I see on him sounds like he probably ok and should play. Gotta like steele at this price if cubs give him some run support. Im just on phone at moment trying to relax but kinda need laptop to look closer at both pens man for man, a very general overall glance and I see some pretty good signs from cubs pen compared to lad but neither been great result wise (era), as I keep saying tho results this early not a great indicator overall. There no way dodgers makes sense laying -160, it cubs or nothing.
 
2daBank said:
Speaking of regressing one way or the other id guess seattle pen is gonna pitch better than they have thus far, unless something changed drastically they had some filthy arms coming out the pen last year and so far the era is fine (not elite) but their k:bb ratio sucks along w the whip (thanks to the walks no doubt). They had above 3:1 k:bb ratio last year and it not even 2:1 right now.
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Their best pen arm Munoz is hurt but should be back in 2 weeks or so.
 
I might have been over excited last night. There some solid dogs but I’m down to like 4 now which is really right In my wheelhouse for the RRs, I like 4 teams groups of 2s is 6 bets, you expend past 4 teams and you either not gonna risk as much on each or have more money than I do! 6 bets most of us can do anywhere from 25-100 on all 6 plays no problem and with dogs if you hit 3 you gonna come close to tripling money give or take compared to if you play them straight at 200 each you double give or take. The difference is splitting is winning betting them straight where as you will lose a bit on a split but the payoff worth it to me
 
I don’t have time to post them Exactky how I bet them till I get home.

So far I’m on

Rangers ml
Jays ml
Cubs ml

Senga ov 5.5 k’s
steele over 5.5 k’s


I think I’ll be going back and doing a few more things but had to run around and do a few things and time went fast on me. Lol. wanted to get my fav ones posted at least. Senga was juicy so he goes in round robins, steele was surprisingly plus money. I also took a page out of @Wiretowire book amd borrowed rangers +2.5 runs parlayed w Senga ov 5.5 k’s. That was +140ish.
 
I can’t remember the name this loudmouth asshole on mlb network radio during lunch but he just did list his top 10 teams and seriously said Astros had to be #1?!?!? I’m all about not making any crazy assumptions based off a few weeks, I thought him having tampa at 4 seemed reasonable despite looking like best team at moment. I’m not saying Phillies are trash even tho they struggling and have real injury issues, but I dunno how you look at Stros and call them the best team? This ain’t the same houston team of last 5 years. As happens with successful teams they been gradually losing a key piece here or there every season, at 1st they were replacing pretty seamlessly but it has finally caught up to them imo. I don’t even think the win the AL west but he calling them the best team, it might have been a strictly AL list cause I don’t remember hearing any NL teams but it still a crazy statement to me.

Let’s look at them real quick without too much deep diving. I still like most their starting pitching, few guys who could be aces but slotted in fantastic as some the best 2nd or 3rd starters in the league, without the true Alfa ace whether it be Cole then still JV after Cole left the guys I like have to be bumped up. To me that is way more similar to twins rotation w a couple very high end 2s but not a true lock down ace who sets the standard for entire rotation, honestly I think going 5 deep I’d take twins over houston starting 5, either way it very close, I would take seattle startling 5 over Stros every day the week and twice on Sunday! Not bad but not close to the rotation of the team I’d call the best.

Making matters worse I feel like the pitching is the strength the team. We do have to take into account the fact they missing Altuve and he makes a pretty big difference not only in his ability as one the best leadoff hitters of last 5ish years but he simply lengthens the lineup a tad. Without him this Stros lineup isn’t close to “stacked” the way they been previously. The addition of Abreu this offseason would probably look even better if Altuve was playing, as is they not only weaker setting the table at top but after you get past the 4-5 spots they fielding a lot of guys who are faring easy outs compared to previous teams. It used to be Maldonado was the only spot in Stros lineup a pitcher could take a much needed huge breath! Maldonado is very Yadi in the fact he adds enough to other areas your team it worth watching him bat! That ok when you go 8 deep in the lineup with guys who can not only hit but take solid at bats that taxes pitchers before they gotta turn around and face the top again! This lineup does not scream best team in the AL! We shouldn’t overreact to 2 weeks of ball, that I agree with but we also shouldn’t look at what a team did last October and give them benefit of the doubt even tho it obviously not the same team!

If all that isn’t problematic enough far as ranking Stros, the rest the AL west other than Oakland is much improved or a young team in seattle who is improving organically. Not a good combination of your team falling back to the pack with the departure of guys and the division you play in having 3 the 4 teams improving to some extent, I don’t think anyone would argue that. How the hell he called Stros 1 and did so like “inarguably number 1”, at the very least whether im right or wrong it is incredibly easy to argue!
 
To be clear bout the stuff I posted earlier. As I think I posted I went across river at like 3:30-4:30 this morning to play those pitcher props once at least. I played Senga straight, parlayed him and steele, I thought senga would go up to 6.5 for sure, he was ov5.5 -140 early this morning. He was up to ov5.5 -175 when I posted and played that senga/rangers+2.5 parlay, I was happy I could still get 5.5 even w the extra juice, imo that line should be a juiced 6.5 but I think there still questions on him, I don’t have any cause I saw all the good jap pitchers in the WBC, he wasn’t one of them but he been winning pitching awards over their in Japan league and if you beating out those other guys I knew he had the goods!

On the other hand something weird happened w steele who I also like, not as much senga but enough for a play, steele was -135 or something for over 5.5 k’s this morning. Not sure I expected him to go up a full k to 6.5 but I defiantly expected his juice to get higher. Instead he was plus money on over 5.5 k’s when I posted those from casino. Long way of saying I have a Senga/steele ov 5.5 k’s parlay along with other Senga parlays but since steele number moved the opposite direction on me (that almost never happens w k props!) I didn’t put him in any other RR parlay, I just bet him straight +125 as that a good price to play by itself! I screwed up/jumped the gun betting him this morning, hoping im right on him, I don’t really understand the move. Not going higher than -135 sure, damn sure didn’t think it move down closer to 4.5. Ultimately the main reason I took the 4am trip was I thought Senga might be up a full k if I waited and I didn’t want that. Getting the price wrong effects long term profit but getting a different k total the difference between a win or loss.
 
Marlins early results against lhp have been much improved over last season. They had one of if not the worst k rate against lhp, they were the absolute worst in the league on base percentage team against lhp. They were a stacked right handed hitting lineup so I found it odd but it didn’t stop me from playing all kinds of lhp k props against them and cashing a bunch! I still don’t know why that was? The strikeouts more explainable than the worst obp in the league. It could be lhp throw lot of junk below the zone and fish are not a patient squad, it could be their right handed hitters simply don’t pick ball up as well as many out of lefties hands? It’s not like they were a great obp team vs rhp either.

I looked at a recent start by Phillies lhp Matt strahm and fish performed a lot like they did against lhp last year! At 31 Stahm has been mostly a reliever with some spot starts throughout his career, clearly not a guy with special stuff, he has some seasons with fantastic k:bb ratio’s and some where the k’s way down, he never walks many. His swinging strike rate hasn’t been above 10% for years, all these things should drop off when he starts as most relievers do when taking on a starting role. he pretty much stifled the fish for 5 innings with 6:1 k:bb and no runs allowed.

I bring all that up cause tonight fish facing another lhp who stuff is a long ways from special anymore. Even with the massive drop off madbum is not gonna be a 10era gas can. Imo he is a 4.50ish era kinda guy, that gets a bump from having to pitch in a tough park for pitchers to where he been around 4.80 since joining zona. I know era is outdated but end of day how many runs you allow is pretty important to whether your team wins! It’s not really predictive going forward is fair to say but his fip/xfip has fell right in line with his era pitching for snakes and they all been incredibly close the last couple years. After facing a good lad lineup twice this game screams positive regression for madbum. He had to try and pitch around dodgers lineup cause his stuff not getting elite hitters out in the zone, as a result he has walked a ton of guys in those 2 starts. He not gonna go from a 2-3 walk per 9 guy his whole career into a 10 walks per 9 guy! He had a 6.1 inning 2 runs allowed start vs fish last year, for some reason he was slated to pitch against them b2b times fairly early last season, something happened in the start in Miami and he left game after a inning, then he came back the prior week and had the great effort vs marlins in Arizona. Imo it stands to reason he should have a better time in the Miami park.

This seems like a good spot for him to pitch well especially with the price attached. All a sudden the fish are a team laying -160 with Rogers starting who one the most inconsistent no control having pitchers around, I don’t think he knows where ball going when he throws it! Rogers talented, if this was a “who has better stuff” contest he would beat madbum every time, unfortunately for him he facing a scrappy snakes lineup who doesn’t do a lot of striking out so he will have to put pitches in the k zone. Whether he can do that is anyones guess on a given night, if he does that they are often pitches that catch way more of the plate than a good pitcher wants to. +140 a really good price to play snakes who I think are pretty close to the fish overall. What separates these teams to that price? I’m sure I don’t get it, they have played the dodgers 8x and have a 5-3 record but they only have a 41% chance to beat the marlins with one their more inconsistent starting pitchers on the bump? I don’t think so, I think snakes have way closer to a 447-48% chance of winning this game, if not 50%!
 
Man. I can’t believe im writing so much bout these games, im just tryin to work thru them as I type so I know it choppy, hopefully they make some sense tho? I dunno if ppl want to read them or I should just shut up and post play, lol. I could always just erase the stuff after I type it, it just helps me to write my thoughts as I go.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t have time to post them Exactky how I bet them till I get home.

So far I’m on

Rangers ml
Jays ml
Cubs ml

Senga ov 5.5 k’s
steele over 5.5 k’s


I think I’ll be going back and doing a few more things but had to run around and do a few things and time went fast on me. Lol. wanted to get my fav ones posted at least. Senga was juicy so he goes in round robins, steele was surprisingly plus money. I also took a page out of @Wiretowire book amd borrowed rangers +2.5 runs parlayed w Senga ov 5.5 k’s. That was +140ish.
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Adding Arizona ml.
 
Rasmussen will be a guy I play ov4.5 k’s on quite a bit if they put him there, or even 5.5 at times. however looking at him tonight he struggled a bit facing the jays in Toronto on several occasions last year. He didn’t really dominate them in tampa but the results were much more effective in his pitcher friendly park. Another thing bout that is jays saw him quite a few times last season, more than typical I would say, There not gonna be any surprises tonight, they should have a good scouting report and be familiar with him unlike the teams he has faced thus far.

Far as Berrios goes just close your eyes and throw a dart, I honestly never know how he gonna pitch but one thing I’m sure of his stuff is still much better than a past his prime Kluber and he fanned tampa 7x in 4 innings before a rather flukey singles fest in the 5th sent him to the showers. It doesn’t change the fact he was controlling the vaunted rays offense who is on fire from top to bottom to start the year. Point being if Kluber can strike out 7 guys in the 1st 12 outs he recorded I’d say berrios capable of having a nice start here. Rays saw him bout a typical amount for a pitcher in division last year; much like all berrios starts it was a mixed bag, in 2 home starts he pitched 11.1 innings and only allowed 3 earned runs, however he got shelled the last time he faced rays in tampa. You just never know with Berrios! Maybe if we knew his mama we could ask her to tell us what days he feeling good? Outside of that I have no clue. I just know rays offense was looking less on fire the other day, they still scored all those runs in the 5th inning that came from a lot of singles where the shift used to be, a bunt single, a double that squeezed in between 3rd baseman and foul line. Besides that inning they only managed 2 runs the rest of the game against a avg pitcher and Sox pen. They not unstoppable and they will not be undefeated when they leave Toronto!
 
Considering adding a RR with the 4 dogs getting +1.5, not sure that worth the extra risk or not tho? I am going over now to do a 4 team RR in groups of 2s with

Jays ml
Tex ml
Snakes ml
Cubs ml


I already did a 3 team groups of 2 with jays, rangers, senga k’s .
 
Last warm day here in stl for this series, (actually I don’t know about 2marro, at some point we getting storms 2marro and a drastic temp drop, no clue if it will effect 2marro game) anyways, it still warm right now and ball carrying ok, woodford is really no more than just a guy, this another price I don’t really agree with could have easily played pirates instead the team total but love their chances of getting 2 runs off woodford! All the switch hitting lefties should be in lineup and woodford career splits lefties ops about 70 points higher. Really dunno what would possess anyone to play cards, I dunno how well Oviedo will pitch the thing keeping me off the ml, every day it something, yesterday I knew Montgomery most likely be good so it was tough to back pirates, I thought cards offense would struggle but Velasquez shitting on them like that was tough to expect. One thing I didn’t really put together that cost us the pirates team total under was the fact after Montgomery left cards don’t really have any good lefties in the pen to neutralize pirates switch hitting and lefty hitting team, that gonna continue to be a problem. A pirates full game ml makes tons of sense also.
 
These radio guys are funny, this guy on now is going nuts panicking about cards. 2 weeks ago he thought cards would win division easy and now they have no chance. It was probably a good idea to bail on liking cards I just don’t quite get letting your option change so drastically after 2 weeks? I guess if it was a awful take the faster you get off the better. I guess what funny is I dunno how he didn’t see these issues for cards coming into the year?? It was a secret to him our pitching is ass? A blind man could see that! Tough to win when you got guys in starting 5 who should be ni more than a injury replacement type guy. Cards do have a bunch of outfield depth, I dunno if they can leverage that into 2 pitchers or not? Good enough ones to make huge difference seems unlikely. Said it coming into year, They gonna have to score to win which the lineup is solid but it weird for this to be cards path. They not a good enough team to be priced like a for sure 90 win playoff team.
 
2daBank said:
These radio guys are funny, this guy on now is going nuts panicking about cards. 2 weeks ago he thought cards would win division easy and now they have no chance. It was probably a good idea to bail on liking cards I just don’t quite get letting your option change so drastically after 2 weeks? I guess if it was a awful take the faster you get off the better. I guess what funny is I dunno how he didn’t see these issues for cards coming into the year?? It was a secret to him our pitching is ass? A blind man could see that! Tough to win when you got guys in starting 5 who should be ni more than a injury replacement type guy. Cards do have a bunch of outfield depth, I dunno if they can leverage that into 2 pitchers or not? Good enough ones to make huge difference seems unlikely. Said it coming into year, They gonna have to score to win which the lineup is solid but it weird for this to be cards path. They not a good enough team to be priced like a for sure 90 win playoff team.
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I hate to say it, most guys on the radio really don’t understand baseball at the depth that some of us do. Times have changed, podcasts, special others on twitter, some other outlets that utilize all of the new info at our disposal are light years ahead of joe public radio guy and listeners. I’m 41, so I straddle the line of when AM radio and the like was THE source of intel but it’s fallen behind. And now you have shit like this.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I like Pirates but tempted to add 1h over. Cards sure to score a run at some point?
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I honestly didn’t take much time with Oviedo or cards offense. I know he got some decent stuff, and 2marro they gonna see Roansy Contreras, they could struggle all weekend for real. it could be a irrational concern bout their past offenses more than this one, I think our lineup looks better than anytime the last 10ish years but I still have a phobia about trusting them to score runs. I liked it better when I trusted their pitching, maybe the offense will get hot and be more fun at some point but I’m old school and think run suppression as important as scoring them.
 
peelpub94 said:
I hate to say it, most guys on the radio really don’t understand baseball at the depth that some of us do. Times have changed, podcasts, special others on twitter, some other outlets that utilize all of the new info at our disposal are light years ahead of joe public radio guy and listeners. I’m 41, so I straddle the line of when AM radio and the like was THE source of intel but it’s fallen behind. And now you have shit like this.
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Im 40something, few years ahead of you but not much. We used to have one morning local guy who actually talked more in our manor and was a fantastic listen to know exactly cards issues and how they playing; so of course espn radio being what they are fired him during pandemic and brought in another set of “ra ra” fanboy idiots to match the entire rest of day with same garbage different voices! So I pay for serus radio, mostly so I can listen to all sports on radio but if im not listening to music Mlb network really the only choice for actual baseball talk, I’d blow my brains out having to listen to those morons on all the national networks blabbing bout nfl year round, who gives a fuck??

I don’t really know any good Mlb podcast but I’ve never really checked. Im not sure I really need more information than I have, I just like to have something half way intelligent like reading fangraphs articles when I’m driving. lol
 
Im another 6 weeks local radio will have hours of dumb asses making pretend trades cardinals would never freaking do! So of course the morons who listen to them inevitably start asking me dumb shit like “you think cardinals are gonna get so and so”, it’s exhausting. Like do I really have to explain why cardinals won’t do things or that the yankies won’t trade judge for Tommy edman and prospects! Lmao
 
2daBank said:
I was curious why you played Ff instead of game after watching our pen but then I played the pirates Ff tt so I get it.
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Not gonna base my decision just on the most recent game. I just wanted to attack starting pitcher matchup
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Not gonna base my decision just on the most recent game. I just wanted to attack starting pitcher matchup
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I know it sounded like that but I just meant the fact I kinda just realized yesterday we didn’t have more than 1-2 good options for dealing with pirates switch hitters and lefties.
 
Wentz fans 2 but gives up a bomb in between in the 1st. Pretty much sums up my confusion bout how he would do.
 
Fish not playing the cat they got from twins for Lopez, is he hurt? That be a big loss, Lopez was a steep price but that was a good trade for both teams, fish needed the guy who could actually hit, get on base, not strike out 30% the time, Twins needed a ace like pitching talent. Anyways im glad he not playing tonight, just don’t know why!
 
2daBank said:
Manea one those guys that hard for me to figure out, his stuff seems better than his results quite often. I had no clue bout wentz so I passed on that game pretty quickly.
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I’m at a local bar in the Bay Area and of course everyone bet the Giants. I didn’t realize they already started. It’s on Apple TV which the bar doesn’t even have. Lol
 
wiseplayer said:
I’m at a local bar in the Bay Area and of course everyone bet the Giants. I didn’t realize they already started. It’s on Apple TV which the bar doesn’t even have. Lol
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Yea it was a weird (to me) start time, 5:40 central or something. Baffles me how baseball seemingly goes out of their way to not be seen.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t have time to post them Exactky how I bet them till I get home.

So far I’m on

Rangers ml
Jays ml
Cubs ml

Senga ov 5.5 k’s
steele over 5.5 k’s


I think I’ll be going back and doing a few more things but had to run around and do a few things and time went fast on me. Lol. wanted to get my fav ones posted at least. Senga was juicy so he goes in round robins, steele was surprisingly plus money. I also took a page out of @Wiretowire book amd borrowed rangers +2.5 runs parlayed w Senga ov 5.5 k’s. That was +140ish.
Click to expand...

So far so good. Senga just cashed, rangers and jays in the books. Steele is 1 k away and scrubbies have lead. Woulda been a sweep if not for my 2 adds that lost but if you played some RR with these we did good, could be great if cubs hold!!
 
Boom, k number 6 for steele!! Now just pitch well enough to get into 7th with this lead. He would have bout 9 k’s if he could get his slider buried down and in a bit more, he leaving it at bottom the zone in 2 strike counts and it getting fouled off a lot.
 
Great start by steele. Sucks of the 3 hits he gave up over 7 innings 2 were solo bombs but he was more than good enough to deserve this win. Hopefully the pen can slam the door for 6 outs!
 
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