Friday 9/22 Northwestern vs Nevada

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NickFazekas

Guest
Hey guys,

I am back now and I just wanted to apologize to anyone I had problems with before. I am a reformed person who will not say bad things about you any more just because you dont agree on the spread of a silly football or basketball game.

My first pick to make things up, and I have some strong reasons for this one.

You guys thought I was a Nevada homer.....well how about this!!

Fading my alma mater for all its worth!!

Northwestern +7.5 (locked in early) for $2,200!!!

Nevada is 1-2 and not anything to write home about, I swear these oddsmakers must have got confused on this one and made the spread as if the basketball teams were playing!!

Anyone who follows nevada football knows that strong running attacks have their way with our undersized defense over the years. Thats why it took until this year for us to finally beat Col st (no coincidence that their best player, running back kyle bell was out). We made Dwayne Wright look like Jim Brown. The list goes on.....Someone out there find a dynamic back that nevada has actually stopped.

Everytime we play the big boys we realize we arnt quite there yet, see wash st last year, ASU this year, both teams dismantled us and thats neither were even great teams (atleast I dont think ASU is). Our best non-conference win in recent history was vs Washington by a FG three years ago and that was right when the huskies decided to quit being a PAC 10 team after the neuheisel fiasco.

Northwestern, as pitiful as everyone and even their own fans make them out to be, still returns 17 starters from a bowl team and they have a superior O line and running back. The Quarterback is their issue, but if Fitzgerald knows anything it wont even matter in this game! All he has to do is hand off to Sutton and not turn the ball over and northwestern has a huge advantage on us.

Northwestern is also 16th in the nation in total defense (hard to believe, as bad as they are) while on the other hand Nevada has given up 90 points in 3 games!!! How is laying - anything a good deal?
The only way northwestern doesnt cover or even win is if they refuse to exploit the advantages they have.


matchup reports indicate this game a pick as well.

http://stats.sbrlines.com/statfeed/statfeed.asp?page=cfb/expanded&date=9/22/2006&rotnum=103

there is also the reverse line move factor with 76% of 3200+ bets at sportsinsights on nevada and 62% of wagerline while the line has gone from 7.5 to 7 to even -6.5 now at most places.


for those who will surely bring up that nevada went 12-2 ATS at home or whatever recently, well that was more due to soft lines not nevada playing particularly well IMO.

Of course they will have a good home ATS record, when off the top of my head the lines were

-10 to idaho?
-5.5 to Hawaii
-3 to La Tech
+16.5 home to fresno
-3 to col st without kyle bell

with all those games being at home, those are REALLY soft spreads.

As you can see they didnt lay more than -10 to even the WAC bottom feeders during this home ATS run, now -7.5 to N'western??????? Seriously what happened???
Nevada still is a team that had three straight 5-6 seasons before last seasons 9-3 record (with half the games fluky wins by less than 7 pts)
and now are 1-2 laying -7 hah. No wonder the line is dropping against a big consensus, its too many points.

Nevada was a good bet before, I had them vs fresno out of those games. Now the market has overcorrected. Never in my wildest dreams did I think N'western would be getting +7.5 at the beginning of the season (I assumed theyd be favored)

if you really think if they played this game 1000 times, with N'western's stout D, viable running attack, and Jeff Rowe's penchant for costly momentum changing errors, that nevada would win by 8+ >50% of the time........well then I have some fantastic beach front property out next to area 51 that I will make you an incredible deal on!!!
 
The apology is appreciated. We all make some mistakes and hopefully we can learn from them. Thank you for going about things the right way. Excellent write-up on the game. As you know I'm on Nevada, as I'm really fading Northwestern. I'm tempted to put a $50 play or so on Northwestern ML, but I'm pretty sure I'll let the Nevada -7 play out.

If you have any thoughts on the total, and could post those that would be appreciated.

Thanks and welcome back.
 
hey fondy, thanks for the consideration.

I have no clue on this total really. My instincts say its a WAC game, home game WAC officials it probably could have some crazy shit go down and go over. If it plays out how I actually think the matchups are going to go then its more of a grind it out game with value on under, atleast if N'western is to have any chance. Maybe if you guys play + points, consider an under parlay cause if the game is a shootout Nwestern's running advantage goes out the window.
 
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I'm surprised by this pick, bro. I figure Reno for a decent win here.

gotta let my -7 shit play out like Fondy.

on a sidenote, I'm glad to have your input again.

:)
 
hey redbearde whats up?

Yeah this is definitly a ballsy pick against my team and I'm in the minority. the wolfpack rivals message board wants to revoke my alumni status and there are even n'western fans suggesting I am just one of them in disguise trying to trick everyone.

If you guys havent made your play yet, and like Nevada I would wait, this line may creep down a little more even. If you are with me, lock it in now, especially if you can get +7.

Good luck guys,
 
good to see u back around here nick. i will be on northwestern also, pissed i missed 7.5, hope i can catch a 7 tomorrow, mostly 6.5 everywhere now.
 
I'm thinking on a small play with Northwestern. Good luck, dude!
beer.gif
 
good to see Fazekas hanging around again...no play for me on this one as I see more of a low scoring affair...still don't like going against Nevada at home though...
 
Nick - welcome back to the forum bud. :shake:

You make some great points against your boys, but I'm sticking by my Nevada -7 play with confidence.

Of course, this is all just my opinion, but some of these stats you provided are misleading. Just look at who Northwestern has played in their first 3 games in comparison to Nevada. It's quite obviously there is NO comparison. Nevada's schedule has been much, much tougher.

Nevada Wolfpack...

Lost @ Fresno St. 19-28 --> (was a huge revenge game for the Bulldogs. This was a 19-21 game until the end of the 4th)

Lost @ Arizona St. 21-52 --> (ASU offense was simply too much to handle for the undersized Nevada defense. I watched bits and pieces of this game. ASU had a few big 'lucky' plays IMO.)

Won vs. Colorado St. 28-10 --> (Nevada looked good here. Held CSU to 170 yards of total offense, while putting up nearly 370 on offense themselves. Nevada dominated this game. CSU's only touchdown came off a fumble recovery in the endzone.)


And now the Northwestern Wildcats...

Won @ Miami(OH) 21-3 --> (The Redhawks are 0-3 this season, and even lost to Kent St. This home victory means jack shit for the Wildcats. I for one was not impressed, to say the least.)

Lost vs. New Hampshire (Division 1-AA) 17-34 --> (Do I really need to say anything about this one? Wildcats got rolled, at home by New Hampshire. If they can't handle the NH Offense at home, how the hell can they possibly hope to handle a potent Wolfpack offense on in Reno???)

Won vs. Eastern Michigan 14-6 --> (EMU is also 0-3 and has looked like crap compared to their competition this season. NW could only muster 14 points against them!!!!! Ball State scored 38!!!!)


Again, I don't think you can look at the stats with so much confidence. How tough can it be to stop E. Michigan and Miami(OH)??? 16th in the Nation in total defense (**against inferior opponents). Nevada should run and pass freely against the Wolfpack all night long. If Ricky Santos of New Hampshire can pass for 3 TDs and run for 2 more TDs, one can assume Jeff Rowe might have just as much success.

GL on your plays this weekend! :cheers:
 
Northwestern is also 16th in the nation in total defense (hard to believe, as bad as they are) while on the other hand Nevada has given up 90 points in 3 games!!! How is laying - anything a good deal?
These statistics are a little misleading. NW has faced Miami (OH), New Hampshire (who they LOST to!!!) and Eastern Michigan. Not exactly three offensive juggernauts. 16th in total defense is good, but this is possibly the weakest schedule in the nation. Nevada, on the hand has had to try to stop Fresno St on the road which is always a daunting task as well as ASU, who always gets their points at home. I know you have better knowledge her ethan me, but the it looked liek the defense played solidly at home last week vs CSU. I think you are way overselling NW's D and underseling Nevadas.

EDIT: looks like someone got there first
 
exactly what i was gonna get at. pags and i mentioned this a bit. those defensive stats of NW's are incredibly misleading. New Hampshire was actually the only decent offense they've faced so far.

that said, there are solid reasons for NW as well. namely their running game, and nevada's lack of run defense in particular.
i'm hopeful though, that w/out the legitimate threat of a passing attack, nevada can somehow control NW's running.

Nevada will be able to put up pts though, imo. Good health, NickF.
I know i'd feel much more comfortable about my nevada play though if you and pags endorsed it.
 
Hey guys

tru, sooner, aztec, rsms, yanks:shake:

I know you guys are right, Nevada was predicted to be 1-2 in this spot, so thats not much of a big deal. Also the NW defenseive stats are a small sample size of three games and against low quality opp as you guys say.

I just still like NW running edge on us. I'll add more info as I run across it. NW is battling injuries and I will post exactly who is out soon. IMO as long as Sutton plays thats close to all they need lol.

The NW offense can't be dormant forever, they did score a crapload of points last year. I guess Bazanez meant 25 points agame to these guys lol?
 
Not Basanez alone bro...but maybe Basanez & Walker together equal 25 less PPG?

Good to have ya back...:smiley_acbe:

Mully:cheers: :wacka wacka: :cheers:
 
Well either Im covering or we are going to have yet another pointless game for the whole nation to see.

Seriously, who the fuck came up with the thursday/friday night TV schedule so far the games couldnt have been any more lopsided if they tried!!
 
Nick, sup buddy, great to see you back!

I've capped this game back and forth for a while and believe it or not I was leaning towards Northwestern as well. For some reason I just picture them establishing the run against a Nevada d-line that is giving up 4.5ypc (I believe that's right, going off memory from notes). One thing that is interesting to me, Northwestern has yet to really feed Sutton the ball a ton of times this year. Against Miami (OH) he only had 13 carries. Against NH they fell behind 13-0 early and had to play catchup for a while. Against EMU he had 18 carries (the most so far this season). I think he could easily handle 20+ carries tomorrow against the Pack. One thing that is REALLY intriguing me is the fact that Northwestern is playing two QBs now it seems. There's no real controversy, it seems they've simply incorporated that into their gameplan. Kafka is the passing QB who has the ability to scramble a bit, while Andrew Brewer is more of the scrambling QB who can pass a bit. Nevada faced Hanie from CSU, but his mobility isn't near what these two have imo. It will definitely be interesting to see if the Northwestern d-line can slow down that Nevada o-line. In that game against CSU, the Wolfpack line opened holes for an average of 3.5ypc. I think the NU defense just has to avoid giving up any of those "big plays". In week one against Miami (OH) they surrendered 9 catches for 144 yards to stud WR Ryne Robinson...and still won 21-3.

Coach Fitzgerald needs to play it smart, come out and try punch Nevada right in the face early by running the ball right at them. The best way to stop this Pistol offense is to try and keep them off the field. Easiest way to do that, run the ball and grind it out.

Sorry to ramble so much, gl buddy.
 
Damn I'm on the other side of your boys here. NW is nothing like they were last season. Coaching is down. QB situation is way down. Resulting in the spread offense not being effective... thus the running game which requires 5 on 5 blocking is no longer...I think Nevada wins 27-10
 
4.5 YPC? What did they give up to CSU? Because that's ALL that matters here. Fresno and ASU are SUPERIOR to NW and.... were both road games for NW. I think your underestimating the Pistol and a primetime home game for the Pack' tonight to get back to 2-2.

These situations where a team is fighting to be 2-2 or 1-3 usually favor the team going for the .500 record.
 
hey thanks charlie, stacks, and inspekdah!

Yeah Ive pretty much broke this game down 8 ways to sunday, and thats how i see it too charlie. NW should be able to just pound us on the ground and have success. As bad a NW has played I don't think there is any doubt this is a huge step up in talent from Col st with no Kyle Bell.

If we cover this, since like charlie, soooner, tru, and me seem like the only one's in the internet world on NW, I might have success showing those beachfront properties next to area 51 after all loll.:cheers:
 
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