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NickFazekas
Guest
Hey guys,
I am back now and I just wanted to apologize to anyone I had problems with before. I am a reformed person who will not say bad things about you any more just because you dont agree on the spread of a silly football or basketball game.
My first pick to make things up, and I have some strong reasons for this one.
You guys thought I was a Nevada homer.....well how about this!!
Fading my alma mater for all its worth!!
Northwestern +7.5 (locked in early) for $2,200!!!
Nevada is 1-2 and not anything to write home about, I swear these oddsmakers must have got confused on this one and made the spread as if the basketball teams were playing!!
Anyone who follows nevada football knows that strong running attacks have their way with our undersized defense over the years. Thats why it took until this year for us to finally beat Col st (no coincidence that their best player, running back kyle bell was out). We made Dwayne Wright look like Jim Brown. The list goes on.....Someone out there find a dynamic back that nevada has actually stopped.
Everytime we play the big boys we realize we arnt quite there yet, see wash st last year, ASU this year, both teams dismantled us and thats neither were even great teams (atleast I dont think ASU is). Our best non-conference win in recent history was vs Washington by a FG three years ago and that was right when the huskies decided to quit being a PAC 10 team after the neuheisel fiasco.
Northwestern, as pitiful as everyone and even their own fans make them out to be, still returns 17 starters from a bowl team and they have a superior O line and running back. The Quarterback is their issue, but if Fitzgerald knows anything it wont even matter in this game! All he has to do is hand off to Sutton and not turn the ball over and northwestern has a huge advantage on us.
Northwestern is also 16th in the nation in total defense (hard to believe, as bad as they are) while on the other hand Nevada has given up 90 points in 3 games!!! How is laying - anything a good deal?
The only way northwestern doesnt cover or even win is if they refuse to exploit the advantages they have.
matchup reports indicate this game a pick as well.
http://stats.sbrlines.com/statfeed/statfeed.asp?page=cfb/expanded&date=9/22/2006&rotnum=103
there is also the reverse line move factor with 76% of 3200+ bets at sportsinsights on nevada and 62% of wagerline while the line has gone from 7.5 to 7 to even -6.5 now at most places.
for those who will surely bring up that nevada went 12-2 ATS at home or whatever recently, well that was more due to soft lines not nevada playing particularly well IMO.
Of course they will have a good home ATS record, when off the top of my head the lines were
-10 to idaho?
-5.5 to Hawaii
-3 to La Tech
+16.5 home to fresno
-3 to col st without kyle bell
with all those games being at home, those are REALLY soft spreads.
As you can see they didnt lay more than -10 to even the WAC bottom feeders during this home ATS run, now -7.5 to N'western??????? Seriously what happened???
Nevada still is a team that had three straight 5-6 seasons before last seasons 9-3 record (with half the games fluky wins by less than 7 pts)
and now are 1-2 laying -7 hah. No wonder the line is dropping against a big consensus, its too many points.
Nevada was a good bet before, I had them vs fresno out of those games. Now the market has overcorrected. Never in my wildest dreams did I think N'western would be getting +7.5 at the beginning of the season (I assumed theyd be favored)
if you really think if they played this game 1000 times, with N'western's stout D, viable running attack, and Jeff Rowe's penchant for costly momentum changing errors, that nevada would win by 8+ >50% of the time........well then I have some fantastic beach front property out next to area 51 that I will make you an incredible deal on!!!
I am back now and I just wanted to apologize to anyone I had problems with before. I am a reformed person who will not say bad things about you any more just because you dont agree on the spread of a silly football or basketball game.
My first pick to make things up, and I have some strong reasons for this one.
You guys thought I was a Nevada homer.....well how about this!!
Fading my alma mater for all its worth!!
Northwestern +7.5 (locked in early) for $2,200!!!
Nevada is 1-2 and not anything to write home about, I swear these oddsmakers must have got confused on this one and made the spread as if the basketball teams were playing!!
Anyone who follows nevada football knows that strong running attacks have their way with our undersized defense over the years. Thats why it took until this year for us to finally beat Col st (no coincidence that their best player, running back kyle bell was out). We made Dwayne Wright look like Jim Brown. The list goes on.....Someone out there find a dynamic back that nevada has actually stopped.
Everytime we play the big boys we realize we arnt quite there yet, see wash st last year, ASU this year, both teams dismantled us and thats neither were even great teams (atleast I dont think ASU is). Our best non-conference win in recent history was vs Washington by a FG three years ago and that was right when the huskies decided to quit being a PAC 10 team after the neuheisel fiasco.
Northwestern, as pitiful as everyone and even their own fans make them out to be, still returns 17 starters from a bowl team and they have a superior O line and running back. The Quarterback is their issue, but if Fitzgerald knows anything it wont even matter in this game! All he has to do is hand off to Sutton and not turn the ball over and northwestern has a huge advantage on us.
Northwestern is also 16th in the nation in total defense (hard to believe, as bad as they are) while on the other hand Nevada has given up 90 points in 3 games!!! How is laying - anything a good deal?
The only way northwestern doesnt cover or even win is if they refuse to exploit the advantages they have.
matchup reports indicate this game a pick as well.
http://stats.sbrlines.com/statfeed/statfeed.asp?page=cfb/expanded&date=9/22/2006&rotnum=103
there is also the reverse line move factor with 76% of 3200+ bets at sportsinsights on nevada and 62% of wagerline while the line has gone from 7.5 to 7 to even -6.5 now at most places.
for those who will surely bring up that nevada went 12-2 ATS at home or whatever recently, well that was more due to soft lines not nevada playing particularly well IMO.
Of course they will have a good home ATS record, when off the top of my head the lines were
-10 to idaho?
-5.5 to Hawaii
-3 to La Tech
+16.5 home to fresno
-3 to col st without kyle bell
with all those games being at home, those are REALLY soft spreads.
As you can see they didnt lay more than -10 to even the WAC bottom feeders during this home ATS run, now -7.5 to N'western??????? Seriously what happened???
Nevada still is a team that had three straight 5-6 seasons before last seasons 9-3 record (with half the games fluky wins by less than 7 pts)
and now are 1-2 laying -7 hah. No wonder the line is dropping against a big consensus, its too many points.
Nevada was a good bet before, I had them vs fresno out of those games. Now the market has overcorrected. Never in my wildest dreams did I think N'western would be getting +7.5 at the beginning of the season (I assumed theyd be favored)
if you really think if they played this game 1000 times, with N'western's stout D, viable running attack, and Jeff Rowe's penchant for costly momentum changing errors, that nevada would win by 8+ >50% of the time........well then I have some fantastic beach front property out next to area 51 that I will make you an incredible deal on!!!
