Friday 5/3 MLB Discussion
- Thread starter Play2win
- Start date
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
I wanted Oakland but this price is not even close to what I was hoping for nor what I will settle for. Cc looks messed up right now, so that could explain a portion of the line and my interest, but no chance I'm taking the Yanks even with a big variation
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
If he puts it together they are in great shape
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Coors Field, a place where ERAs go to die
No1Ranked
Pretty much a regular
Did you see how surprised Trout was to be tagged out. He was shocked that somehow that ball got there in time to get him.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Leake has been pitching well lately
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Colorado holds real interest.
This is Francis in his last start.
[TABLE="class: num"]
<tbody>[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD] 5.0[/TD]
[TD] 4[/TD]
[TD] 2[/TD]
[TD] 2[/TD]
[TD] 1[/TD]
[TD] 2[/TD]
[TD] 1[/TD]
[TD] 7.29
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This was supposed to b a hopeless spot for him.
Many RLed and lost and many played the Arizona team total over and lost.
Colorado is 4-0 on Friday and 5-2 playing with a day off
This is a night game which is best for him
A park where he lifetime is 34 and 27 and I think he can win.
This is Francis in his last start.
[TABLE="class: num"]
<tbody>[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD] 5.0[/TD]
[TD] 4[/TD]
[TD] 2[/TD]
[TD] 2[/TD]
[TD] 1[/TD]
[TD] 2[/TD]
[TD] 1[/TD]
[TD] 7.29
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This was supposed to b a hopeless spot for him.
Many RLed and lost and many played the Arizona team total over and lost.
Colorado is 4-0 on Friday and 5-2 playing with a day off
This is a night game which is best for him
A park where he lifetime is 34 and 27 and I think he can win.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Looks like no Werth:
[TABLE="class: tlineup"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Denard Span (L) CF
2. Ian Desmond (R) SS
3. Bryce Harper (L) LF
4. Ryan Zimmerman (R) 3B
5. Adam LaRoche (L) 1B
6. Tyler Moore (R) RF
7. Danny Espinosa (S) 2B
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C
9. Ross Detwiler (R) P
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: tlineup"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Denard Span (L) CF
2. Ian Desmond (R) SS
3. Bryce Harper (L) LF
4. Ryan Zimmerman (R) 3B
5. Adam LaRoche (L) 1B
6. Tyler Moore (R) RF
7. Danny Espinosa (S) 2B
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C
9. Ross Detwiler (R) P
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Vargas does NOT suck and has good numbers with ump. Baltimore is 2-3 last 5. Team is slowing down. Oakland has scored 20 more runs than NY but is 4-6 vs winning teams to NY 5-1. Trouble is NY has too many players that just do not know each other so rough times may coming
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
West coast will do that to anyone, wouldn't read too much into the O's but also not sure id back em
Friday -
Over @ cleveland - SP is solid but tribe bats on fire hoping it continues
Oakland ml - Cc really battling lately...joba out and robertson out till Tuesday both could be non factors on most days w cc dealing but tough to overlook. Cespedes changes this team and this week proves it. Nothibg wrong w CC lately but he isn't shutdown hence battling comment
Texas - I still see boston w some issues vs LHSP.
Brewers - Lohse gets his payback here but have to hope he is better then last start and healthy..
Small play on over @ colorado
Padres--- have to ride marquis vs an nl west team
Pirates ml --
Angels - Blanton them held in check but bats whimpy ...still don't see balt as anything more then avg for the East..
Lean philly . Twins. Colorado
Small play Mets ml nd +1.5
To late to post sizes but the only small 2 unit tsype plays say small ...rest 4-5 unit range ...w dogs probbly played some F5 and/ or the run lines - ARL for a unit or so...
Texas. Sd. Brewers and Angels were my bigger plays like 8 unit ...GL
Over @ cleveland - SP is solid but tribe bats on fire hoping it continues
Oakland ml - Cc really battling lately...joba out and robertson out till Tuesday both could be non factors on most days w cc dealing but tough to overlook. Cespedes changes this team and this week proves it. Nothibg wrong w CC lately but he isn't shutdown hence battling comment
Texas - I still see boston w some issues vs LHSP.
Brewers - Lohse gets his payback here but have to hope he is better then last start and healthy..
Small play on over @ colorado
Padres--- have to ride marquis vs an nl west team
Pirates ml --
Angels - Blanton them held in check but bats whimpy ...still don't see balt as anything more then avg for the East..
Lean philly . Twins. Colorado
Small play Mets ml nd +1.5
To late to post sizes but the only small 2 unit tsype plays say small ...rest 4-5 unit range ...w dogs probbly played some F5 and/ or the run lines - ARL for a unit or so...
Texas. Sd. Brewers and Angels were my bigger plays like 8 unit ...GL
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
This will be it...
add
Tampa Bay-Colorado OVER 9 (-115)
-Moore is phenomenal and has been the best pitcher this year, but I think he could have some trouble tonight. Don't like Tulo sitting, but he will pinch hit in a run-scoring situation I'm sure of it. Jeff Francis has struggled against righty hitters in his career and joe maddon did his best to get every position filled with one besides Kelly Johnson in LF. Johnson has owned Francis in his career with lots of meetings when he played for Arizona, this also takes James Loney's glove out of the field and that's great news because he's not much at the plate (despite recent success). Paul Emmel is behind the locate after one of the craziest over runs in 2012. Moore struggled with him in the Bronx late in the year, but all I'm hoping for is the Rox to get to the bullpen by the 7th. Road teams winning brings an over correlation, but I think both contribute to this tonight.
add
Tampa Bay-Colorado OVER 9 (-115)
-Moore is phenomenal and has been the best pitcher this year, but I think he could have some trouble tonight. Don't like Tulo sitting, but he will pinch hit in a run-scoring situation I'm sure of it. Jeff Francis has struggled against righty hitters in his career and joe maddon did his best to get every position filled with one besides Kelly Johnson in LF. Johnson has owned Francis in his career with lots of meetings when he played for Arizona, this also takes James Loney's glove out of the field and that's great news because he's not much at the plate (despite recent success). Paul Emmel is behind the locate after one of the craziest over runs in 2012. Moore struggled with him in the Bronx late in the year, but all I'm hoping for is the Rox to get to the bullpen by the 7th. Road teams winning brings an over correlation, but I think both contribute to this tonight.
Great night SN! You have been rolling lately. Keep it going. I only see one loss, MIL lost to STL, but everything else came through with SD leading 5-3 in bottom of 8th.
Whats the biggest key for you to find winners in mlb? pitching on rest? How teams do against LHP/RHP? Recent hitting/pitching stats? You combine them all, and you keep firing winners.
Thanks ,play ball. This has been a pretty sick month and besides Milwaukee only lost 3 u combined on houston F5 and SD -1.5...even had the knicks
Honestly, there is no method to my madness...so no criteria ...I think I pay attention to how games play out and look for edges that are under the surface. How games play out? That's sort of guessing what to expect from the SP and then the pens + then paying attention to the crucial points in recent games .The profiling of teams, in terms of how they tend to perform in close games, how the pen is doing lately things that's of that nature. From that I get a general expectation for the game.
I guess the crazy part is I don't make lines, I don't save data or have any spreadsheets, watch less of it each year and look at trends even less..I've really tried to dumb it down because the more info and research, equals the more conflicting data....at the end of the day its A or B wins...
By profiling , guess I mean defining teams and players on the things you mentioned lefty v righty, days rest , home v away , day v nite....but at that the same time never taking it to literal. Definitely try to stay away from anything that looks easy, prefer the less obvious.
Really wish I knew what made me successful...maybe never feeling comfortable and just being aware. I do think its largely about decision making and while it may not seem like it at times ---Not having an ego about this plays a huge role. I dont believe my losing bets are ever right or correct, not to say they are bad . They just weren't....Like taking the Angels w blanton starting---if you tell me he ill go 8inn and allow 3runs, probably gonna guess he wins that start 80-90% of the time but yesterday he didnt--that's life....I felt he would go 6-7inn and allow 2-3 runs when I decided to make that play . Today hd similar type matchup and tried again. No ego but conviction in my opinions and definitely sincere about that.
Honestly, there is no method to my madness...so no criteria ...I think I pay attention to how games play out and look for edges that are under the surface. How games play out? That's sort of guessing what to expect from the SP and then the pens + then paying attention to the crucial points in recent games .The profiling of teams, in terms of how they tend to perform in close games, how the pen is doing lately things that's of that nature. From that I get a general expectation for the game.
I guess the crazy part is I don't make lines, I don't save data or have any spreadsheets, watch less of it each year and look at trends even less..I've really tried to dumb it down because the more info and research, equals the more conflicting data....at the end of the day its A or B wins...
By profiling , guess I mean defining teams and players on the things you mentioned lefty v righty, days rest , home v away , day v nite....but at that the same time never taking it to literal. Definitely try to stay away from anything that looks easy, prefer the less obvious.
Really wish I knew what made me successful...maybe never feeling comfortable and just being aware. I do think its largely about decision making and while it may not seem like it at times ---Not having an ego about this plays a huge role. I dont believe my losing bets are ever right or correct, not to say they are bad . They just weren't....Like taking the Angels w blanton starting---if you tell me he ill go 8inn and allow 3runs, probably gonna guess he wins that start 80-90% of the time but yesterday he didnt--that's life....I felt he would go 6-7inn and allow 2-3 runs when I decided to make that play . Today hd similar type matchup and tried again. No ego but conviction in my opinions and definitely sincere about that.
One thing that clearly differs w me, is the whole price v value arguement...Don't get the logic of it when really lines are betting tools and not meant to be accurte reflections of strength. I don't understand why people concern themselves w 5-10-15-20 cent differences...whether its movement or simply where they need to be to make a play....no difference in a play if your getting 140 or 160...that's just me -- a 5% difference in value means nothing because if its that marginal it shouldn't be a play imo...no difference between +110 or -110 ..
Worse arguement is I need to win this play x amount of times to win money. The funny thing about gambling is you can make tgat value type play and lose it everytime. How many quality SP have won as dogs? How many quality teams? I don't mean as +110 or +120 either ....do the research ...all the so call value plays almost alwats lose
Value is the difference between perception and reality .Stats are reflection of performance but if teams or players are plating poorly, what else can they hve but negative stats? Which often Is missed I think
Worse arguement is I need to win this play x amount of times to win money. The funny thing about gambling is you can make tgat value type play and lose it everytime. How many quality SP have won as dogs? How many quality teams? I don't mean as +110 or +120 either ....do the research ...all the so call value plays almost alwats lose
Value is the difference between perception and reality .Stats are reflection of performance but if teams or players are plating poorly, what else can they hve but negative stats? Which often Is missed I think
I have always felt that there is no "value" in a losing bet. Like you said, either A wins or B wins, and the value was with the winner, regardless of how it played out. I do understand the play X amount of times to win, because some gamblers bet based on numbers, they feel a game of x will win 60% of the time and they are getting a good price (same as pot odds in poker).
I see value in -300 plays, where as others think they would never risk that because you have to win 3 out 4 times. I see it as being able to bank a unit. I'd rather bet -300 for a slightly different line than the masses and not have to worry about winning by 2 runs, just stay within 2 runs. You run into problems with bad MM, but if you can space out your losses, you can make money on -300 plays, you just have to be selective on your plays and learn from your mistakes.
I don't know how you track the crucial points, though I am guessing from looking at play by plays, but you seem to look for an opportunity missed, that you think will be made the next day because a team is getting closer to winning. For example, Padres when they got Headley back, were swinging the bats in MIL Game 2, but bounced into a couple DP's to kill rallies, yet you still felt they were heading right direction and had confidence they would breakthrough next day, which they did while getting a great pitching performance from Volquez.
I think its wise to profile teams, will be something I will be working on. I just want you to know that I appreciate your breakdowns and hope you continue to do them and kill the books. I don't always agree with you, but lately you have been way more right than wrong.
I am tracking how teams do as big favorites and looking for edges there. This season, there certainly are days that are favorite and days that are dogs, though the last week has been inconsistent. I keep track of it on weekly basis, not just basing on it the whole number so I can see where its headed.
Your comment about stats are a reflection of performance...is telling me you have a Power Ranking in your head, that tells you that even though Team A is struggling and has bad stats, its because of their competition, but when they step down in class, they will be perceived to be weak, but really be strong. Something along those lines.
Thanks for the responses. BOL!
I see value in -300 plays, where as others think they would never risk that because you have to win 3 out 4 times. I see it as being able to bank a unit. I'd rather bet -300 for a slightly different line than the masses and not have to worry about winning by 2 runs, just stay within 2 runs. You run into problems with bad MM, but if you can space out your losses, you can make money on -300 plays, you just have to be selective on your plays and learn from your mistakes.
I don't know how you track the crucial points, though I am guessing from looking at play by plays, but you seem to look for an opportunity missed, that you think will be made the next day because a team is getting closer to winning. For example, Padres when they got Headley back, were swinging the bats in MIL Game 2, but bounced into a couple DP's to kill rallies, yet you still felt they were heading right direction and had confidence they would breakthrough next day, which they did while getting a great pitching performance from Volquez.
I think its wise to profile teams, will be something I will be working on. I just want you to know that I appreciate your breakdowns and hope you continue to do them and kill the books. I don't always agree with you, but lately you have been way more right than wrong.
I am tracking how teams do as big favorites and looking for edges there. This season, there certainly are days that are favorite and days that are dogs, though the last week has been inconsistent. I keep track of it on weekly basis, not just basing on it the whole number so I can see where its headed.
Your comment about stats are a reflection of performance...is telling me you have a Power Ranking in your head, that tells you that even though Team A is struggling and has bad stats, its because of their competition, but when they step down in class, they will be perceived to be weak, but really be strong. Something along those lines.
Thanks for the responses. BOL!
brewer
Fan Club of any and everyone good!
the way i look at. you believed there was value. you allocated x amount of money. if it lost it lost. there could be a myriad of reason including of course you entire thesis was wrong even after you thought you allocated for everything and placed the wager. i am a firm believer in wagers should be made in the dollar size equivalence of the edge you capped.
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