Friday 1-26

[BetCrimes1984]

Under 184.5 - Philadelphia/Cleveland

- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores, unless otherwise noted.


I had this one on my radar before the the LeBron news, since these 2 teams played out an OT 230/100-100 game in their last meeting a couple of days ago. The most relevant stats applying to this spot from that trend are...

- Teams off a 230/100-100 game decided by 1-3 pts are 11-0 to Under when playing first next, over this season and last.

- Teams off an OT 230/100-100 vs Conf. opponents are 12-4 to Under when playing first next, this season & last.

...and when the specific categories applying to these teams (listed in the 230 thread) are combined, the figure arrived at here is 31-5 to Under.

However, as I have pointed out in the past that I dont believe in playing such a result based on that trends indicators alone, I have a couple of stats which, outside of the fact these 2 teams only managed 184 in regulation 2 days ago (and that was with Lebron contributing 39 pts), help push Under's cause here...


Cleveland

- is U/O 8-3 at an average of 182.7 points when coming off a game that totals 200+ overall points this season.


Philadelphia

- is U/O 5-1 (2 pts off 6-0) at an average of 183.0 points when coming off a SU win and not facing one of the *no-defense 6*, since losing Iverson.

- has gone U/O 3-0 in home games, as opposed to U/O 1-2 in road games, off a 230/100-100 result this season & last.


Its my usual practice to step down my bets when Im cold (not that my recent losses have been anything other than small anyway), so this is for a small bet.

 

[euchre_robot]

gl man

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks euchre. I'm looking at a few other plays today, and along that line I've played a parlay to cover some results for various reasons.

ORL -8.5
SEA-MIN U199.5
UTH-DEN U216.5

 

[Satyr]

Ah, I'm on the other side in Orlando-Atlanta game, and from all the other picks I like Utah under the best. But I pounded Jazz already so no additional plays for me.
Good luck tonight BC. :shake:

 

[pressitup]

on the Sea and Utah unders myself, BC.

GL

Press

 

[Toronto_Mike]

excellent numbers. all the best BC

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Satyr - thats the one result I was least tempted to play SU. BOL tonight.

press - I may even play 1 of those totals SU yet. Gl tonight.

Mike - thanks, same to you

:cheers:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Well, this one's died an early death. Cleveland are pitiful.

From a wider perspective, its seems the various spots that have treated me well this season to date, have all decided to reverse themselves at the same time. The only thing to do is plough on, because leopards dont change their spots without fundamental changes (ie Memphis), and thats not been the case.

 

[3gamblers]

philly is hot

 

[BetCrimes1984]

3gamblers - I needed the game to start as it has in the 2nd, not the 1st.

Played Spurs -12.5 for small.

-------------------------------------------------------

103 at the half in Philly.

Need Philly to win the 3rd by 5-10 points, and have it not total more than 45. In those circumstances, a bitch ugly 4th would be a real possibility, but I'm not holding any serious hopes.

 

[tonywho]

BC.. what you think the 2nd half under 91....:shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

tony - sorry, I was viewing shit elsewhere, so I never saw your post before it got back underway. For what its worth, I had no real opinion.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I thought my day might be toast given that 3rd period in San An, but thanks to my belief in the trend thread, I can take 3 units profit away from today.

Congrats Spurs backers.