*** Freak Pics *** (Week 1)

[Jimmydafreak]

I really meant to post this earlier in the week, but it's been a hectic one.

Not that this does anyone on this site any good at this point, but I'm off to a nice 7 & 0 start (as posted on Blankets). Hopefully I'll be able to keep the momentum going tomorrow.

Note: the posted lines are the prevailing ones at the time I posted them. They are not necessarily the lines of my pending wagers.

Updated Card:

Thursday Night:

UNC Charlotte @ Louisville -39.5

Tulane +8.5 (1st Half) @ Wake Forest

Tulane +15 @ Wake Forest

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt UNDER 21 (1st Half)

Friday Night:

Army +8.5 (1st Half) @ Temple

Army +15 @ Temple

Colorado State @ Colorado -8.5

Saturday Early Games:

Georgia Tech vs. Boston College UNDER 21.5 (1st Half)

South Alabama @ Mississippi State UNDER 27 (1st Half)

Rutgers +27 @ Washington

Lean: Missouri +9.5

Saturday Afternoon Game:

LSU -11 vs. Wisconsin

Texas State @ Ohio UNDER 32.5 (1st Half)

Saturday Night Games:

Clemson -8 vs. Auburn *** Best Bet ***

:enraged:

Auburn Team Total UNDER 28 *** Best Bet ***

USC vs. Alabama UNDER 27 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

USC vs. Alabama -7 (2nd Half)

USC Team Total UNDER 20.5 *** Best Bet ***

Saturday Late Game:

Northern Illinois @ Wyoming +9

Sunday Night Game:

Notre Dame @ Texas UNDER 29.5 (1st Half)

Lean: Texas ML

Monday Night Game:

Mississippi @ Florida State UNDER 29.5 -105 (1st Half)

 

[eggman]

Probably gonna get on some of those totals and tail you. Why only 1h in Bama?

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Probably gonna get on some of those totals and tail you. Why only 1h in Bama?

Like most offenses in the first week of the season, they tend to start slow. Furthermore, I'm betting that Cooper Bateman takes most, if not all the snaps in the first half, and he is by far the least talented, and least explosive QB Alabama has. To be honest, I really don't think it will matter if you play the 1st half total or the game total, because I think both are golden. I say that because I really don't think USC will score much - probably in the 10-13 point range. If that is so, then Alabama would need to score <40 to take it over the total. In other words, I fully expect USC/Alabama's defense to keep the total under the number.

:shake2:

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Nick Saban said the following on his Wednesday evening radio show:

“We have a plan for what we’re gonna do [with the three QBs], aight. And I would love to share it with you, but I’m not going to.”

 

[KJ]

In other words, no plan...but I do like that 1h under and like it at Lambeau as well, but the way I'm running expect fireworks

 

[Jimmydafreak]

In other words, no plan...but I do like that 1h under and like it at Lambeau as well, but the way I'm running expect fireworks

Actually, my sources indicate that Barnett will get the start. I still think Jalen Hurts will play at some point. I'm hoping my sources are wrong, because I think Bateman is the best QB for my UNDER. If Bateman plays, I think it'll be primarily in the first half.

 

[HUNT]

My dude. Gl today and rest of year. Yo everyone this dude knows big game Bama games like no other.

 

[scarf31]

Another one of the "must read" threads back for another year. Great to see you posting and keep up the killer start...:shake:

 

[Jimmydafreak]

GT/BC 1st Half UNDER!!!

:cheers3:

 

[B.A.R.]

Helluva start to the year.

Great looking card for the rest of the day. GL.

 

[RetroVK]

Jesus Jimmy

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL the rest of the way, Jimmy opcorn:

 

[rambler882]

:shake2:

Let's get it bud.

 

[KJ]

Actually, my sources indicate that Barnett will get the start. I still think Jalen Hurts will play at some point. I'm hoping my sources are wrong, because I think Bateman is the best QB for my UNDER. If Bateman plays, I think it'll be primarily in the first half.

Ironically I'm in on the full game over 52 and actually like it quite a bit now...I expect Lane to try to shove one up USC's ass as it is and expect USC to speed the tempo up (which is the only thing Bama defense hates) in a pace friendly atmosphere at that place. Certainly not meant to talk you off anything but I like this over quite a bit and knowing it's week one, either team can afford a loss (most notably Bama with their ranking) knowing that they can still make the playoff...guessing we see some interesting and possibly intriguing offense in this one.

So your under is golden

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Ironically I'm in on the full game over 52 and actually like it quite a bit now...I expect Lane to try to shove one up USC's ass as it is and expect USC to speed the tempo up (which is the only thing Bama defense hates) in a pace friendly atmosphere at that place. Certainly not meant to talk you off anything but I like this over quite a bit and knowing it's week one, either team can afford a loss (most notably Bama with their ranking) knowing that they can still make the playoff...guessing we see some interesting and possibly intriguing offense in this one.

So your under is golden

My problem with the OVER is that, despite the talent USC has on the side of the ball, I have no confidence in their ability to score against Alabama ridiculous defense.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

USA/Miss St 1st Half UNDER cashes!!!

:cheers3:

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Ironically I'm in on the full game over 52 and actually like it quite a bit now...I expect Lane to try to shove one up USC's ass as it is and expect USC to speed the tempo up (which is the only thing Bama defense hates) in a pace friendly atmosphere at that place. Certainly not meant to talk you off anything but I like this over quite a bit and knowing it's week one, either team can afford a loss (most notably Bama with their ranking) knowing that they can still make the playoff...guessing we see some interesting and possibly intriguing offense in this one.

So your under is golden

KJ, I now need the Alabama 1st half UNDER to complete a 2-teamer, a 3-teamer and a 6-teamer! I will have none of this Alabama (I refuse to even utter the word) negativity in my thread!!! :enraged:

 

[KJ]

Complete them all my man, just give me the full game

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Complete them all my man, just give me the full game

I might even ride with you in the second half!

:shake2:

 

[KJ]

You have me contemplating a smaller 1h under now, don't think I've ever done that with a game over but seems like it wouldn't be the worst hedge, smaller of course. But if the first couple drives eat up 8 minutes, I can buy it...just tough to be correct both ways obviously.

Appreciate your input regardless of how it turns out

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Texas State/Ohio 1st Half UNDER cashes!!!

:badass:

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Rutgers +27

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Jesus Jimmy

I learned from the master!!!

:notworthy:

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Adding:

USC vs. Alabama -7 (2nd Half)

:shake2:

 

[Jimmydafreak]

USC vs. Alabama UNDER 27 (1st Half) is a WINNER!!!

This one is huge because it completed 2, 3 and 6-team parlays!!!

I am happy!!!

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Ironically I'm in on the full game over 52 and actually like it quite a bit now...I expect Lane to try to shove one up USC's ass as it is and expect USC to speed the tempo up (which is the only thing Bama defense hates) in a pace friendly atmosphere at that place. Certainly not meant to talk you off anything but I like this over quite a bit and knowing it's week one, either team can afford a loss (most notably Bama with their ranking) knowing that they can still make the playoff...guessing we see some interesting and possibly intriguing offense in this one.

So your under is golden

I'm pumped you hit your OVER!!! I told you Alabama would have to do it themselves, and fortunately for you, they did!!!

:cheers3:

 

[KJ]

Worked out for us buddy, as scripted :beer4:

 

[eggman]

Nice call on the 1h Under.....I did it and glad I did.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Nice call on the 1h Under.....I did it and glad I did.

Yes, that turned out very well.

Here's why I really like the under for the first half. First of all I knew USC would not be able to score on Alabama's defense. Secondly, I know that all three QBs have been practicing against that defense we saw against USC through spring and fall camps. So I knew it's only a matter of time before any of those three start lighting up the scoreboard. I thought that regardless of which QB Saban trotted out there they would have early game jitters, thus not score many points. Couple that with USC isn't going to score much, and you have the recipe for an under. That is exactly how it played out.

But as much as I didn't think Alabama would score much in the first half, I thought quite the opposite would happen in the 2nd Half, which is why I had Alabama -7 for the second half.

 

[D.D.]

Phenomenal analysis Jimmy.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I obviously cannot be upset about a 15 & 3 start (up 61 units) with one play pending, but I'm still angry about the Clemson loss. I felt that I handicapped that game perfectly, and that the outcome was likely manipulated.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Adding:

Mississippi @ Florida State UNDER 29.5 -105 (1st Half)

 

[D.D.]

Thanks Jimmy and for all of your hard work.

 

[RetroVK]

15-3 and most were not even close. Just really well capped week. I had clemson too but it wasn't in my top four of well capped losses. The joy of having the games that are as lopsided against the numbers as most of yours are is that you don't have to sweat the BS decisions by these coaches or stupid penalties by these players.

 

[ProV1Colt]

Freakish start Jimmy on the Under 1H with ya. GL

 

[Engineer]

Welp... Roll Tide. Nice start to the season!

 

[Jeffeo]

I obviously cannot be upset about a 15 & 3 start (up 61 units) with one play pending, but I'm still angry about the Clemson loss. I felt that I handicapped that game perfectly, and that the outcome was likely manipulated.

I agree that the outcome was suspect. Thank you for posting and GL this season. Appreciate it.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

15-3 and most were not even close. Just really well capped week. I had clemson too but it wasn't in my top four of well capped losses. The joy of having the games that are as lopsided against the numbers as most of yours are is that you don't have to sweat the BS decisions by these coaches or stupid penalties by these players.

I was speaking to a friend Saturday morning, and told him it felt like a dream. At that point I was already 7 & 0, and had hit 2-team and 3-team parlays, and four spots on my 6-teamer, and I had not dropped a single bead of sweat. I can't recall anytime in my handicapping career where it came so easily. It sure feels great when it happens, but we all know what a cruel mistress this business is. Just about the time you are patting yourself on the back, reality rears it's ugly head.

I find Week 2 the toughest one to handicap, so I'll be happy if I can manage a small profit.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Freakish start Jimmy on the Under 1H with ya. GL

Good luck to us!

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I agree that the outcome was suspect. Thank you for posting and GL this season. Appreciate it.

I knew Auburn's offense would be horrendous, but how is it possible that Clemson did not hit the 20-point mark (which, coincidentally is all they had to do for me to cover my wager)? Absurd! Then we have the suspect denouement where an 8 year old kid playing Madden would have managed the end of the game better than Dumbo Dabo. I know he's an Alabama grad and he looks the part, but I don't believe for a minute that Dabo is quite that dumb.