Fondybadger's Week 9 Card - Saturday

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
I've been treading water since conference season started up. Last week was a pretty tough week on the Pinny account, but NFL helped get that back up. Wanted to watch line movements a bit this week and get a feel for the card instead of jumping right in like I have been doing. Think I have a feel for the card this week and hopefully it will be profitable.

2006 College Football 250-230-11 +$2964.50

Week 1 37-33-1 +$286
Week 2 26-25-2
+$757
Week 3 19-6-2 +$1357
Week 4 25-20-2 +$13
Week 5 29-29-1
-$343.25
Week 6 35-41-1 -$884
Week 7 38-27-1 +$2885.20
Week 8 30-44-1 -$1798
Week 9 11-5-1 +$693.55 (so far)

1st Quarter Record 12-15 -$208.45
1Q Faves 7-7 -$132.25
1Q ML 0-1 -$25
1Q Dogs 0-1 -$20
1Q Over 1-4 -$89.50
1Q under 4-2 +$58.30

1st Half Record 69-68 -$781
1H Faves 51-54 -$1110
1H Dogs 2-7 -$410
1H Over 9-5 +$311
1H under 7-2 +$328

2nd Half Record 20-16 +$1092.70
2H Faves 12-11 +$575.50
2H Dogs 5-3 +$378
2H Over 2-2 +$39.20
2H under 1-0 +$100


Full Game Record 149-131-11 +$2861.25
Faves 86-79-11 +$2014
MLine 2-4 +$29
Dogs 35-24-1 +$874
Over 9-15 -$897.75
under 17-9 +$842

CRAPPY DAY 14-20 -$1136.65

1Q Overs 1-1 +$2.50
$50 Wisky/Illinois 1Q OVER 10
W $50 Texas/TT 1Q OVER 13.5 +105

1Q ML 1-0 +$26.60
W $20 Baylor 1Q ML +133

1H Favorites 3-3 -$218
L $350 Wisconsin 1H -12.5
W $225 Hawaii 1H -14
W $200 Ohio State 1H -14
L $200 USC 1H -6.5
L $125 Texas 1H -6.5
W $100 Iowa 1H -9.5

Favorites 6-6 -$580
L $500 Wisconsin -21
W $300 BYU -7 -120
L $300 Texas -10
W $125 Tenny -3 -115
L $125 Michigan State -7
W $100 Penn State -3
L $100 Wake Forest -8.5
L $100 USC -10 -120
W $100 Georgia Tech -4.5

L $75 Nebraska -6
W $75 Ohio State -27
W $50 Utah -21

Money Lines 0-1 -$88.50
L $75 Missouri Money Line -118

Dogs 3-4 +$245
W $350 Northwestern +34
W $125 Georgia +14 -115
L $100 Navy +14
W $100 Maryland +4
L $75 Baylor +4.5
L $75 Buffalo +34
L $50 Syracuse +7

Overs 0-2 -$191.25
$125 Wisconsin TT OVER 33.5 -113
$50 Syracuse TT OVER 15.5 +100

Unders 0-3 -$333
L $175 MSU/Indiana under 56 +102
L $75 WF/UNC under 40.5
L $75 Idaho/Hawaii under 71 +100


 
Last edited:
12:00 PM Games

$100 Iowa 1H -9.5

Both teams have been extremely disappointing against the spread this season going 1-6. Garrett Wolfe would be a legit Heismann candidate if he played for a bigger school. Yet, the rest of the Northern Illinois team doesn't match up very well with the talent at Iowa and the rest of the Big 10. Iowa's defense should be the focus of this game as they'll be able to stack the line and keep Wolfe is check. I lean towards the under her, but will want to think about that some more.

$100 Navy +14
A team that is 5-2 on the season is a 14 point dog at home? Interesting... Notre Dame has had problems on defense and they'll struggle in this game stopping the run. Brady Quinn with be forced into some questionable throws as he doesn't have a running game to help support him. Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS this season, and this game looks like another play where they're overrated. Also Notre Dame won last season by 21 at home. My thoughts are that Navy is better and Notre Dame is a bit worse, plus they now have home field advantage.

...NCST offense has been horrid this year. This game may be an under 38 play.

...If Syracuse goes to +7 at Cincy I'll take a look at them, but more than likely a no play.

$350 Northwestern +34
Wish I would have hit this line when it was +35. Michigan is the best team in the nation in my opinion. Better than any of the SEC schools, USC, Texas or the Ohio State University. But they do NOT have an explosive offense. They average 29 points a game. So when the game spread is higher than their season average in points that stops you with some concern. Michigan has won their eight games this year by 20, 24, 26, 14, 14, 18, 7, 14... Lloyd Carr plays conservative when he has an early lead, preferring to keep the ball on the ground, run out the clock, and avoid injuries. Northwestern is a pretty bad team this season, but they're still a Big 10 team. I at least put them on the same level of Vandy and Central Michigan in this contest against Michigan. They have no shot of winning this game, but I feel that it should be a pretty safe bet for them to cover.

$500 Wisconsin -21
$350 Wisconsin 1H -12.5
Slow on the trigger in this game as well. Would have loved to get it at 20.5, but I don't think much under 27 or so will matter. In the Badger's four Big 10 wins against Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Purdue they won by 35, 32, 36, and 21. Illinois has losses at Rutgers by 33, a loss at home to Syracuse by 10, lost by 17 at home to Iowa, lost at home on home coming to Indiana by 2 (wisky beat them by 35), and even lost to Ohio by 3. The SBR lines have Wisconsin as a 36 point favorite. Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS this season. In home games the last 3 years Wisconsin is 12-2 ATS. This should be another game that is over before halftime. My one concern, and this is a very weak concern is that it is Halloween weekend in Madison. What that means is that the crowd may not be as lively as it normally is at 11am do to extreme hangovers, but that wouldn't be anything new. My only hope is the players aren't looking towards the parties later on Saturday night and are instead focusing on Illinois. Brett Bielema though has stated he wants to avoid a late season swoon which has been a Wisconsin specialty the last few seasons. Final Score 44-6 Wisconsin (may look at over plays here later in the week).

... I really want to hit Michigan State -7.5, but the Michigan boys are talking me out of it. I will probably make a small play on them still if the line goes back to 7 or below come Saturday morning.

... After watching Purdue last week I see no reason not to take Penn State -3. I haven't seen Penn State play though yet this year, and I'm a bit skeptical. I could see Purdue having a bounce back game this week. Any PSU backers that could give me some thoughts?

... Would lean towards Kansas -2 but I'd like some Big 12 backers thoughts on this first.

Would love some feedback on these games, as I spent forever writing this stuff up. Danka.

:smiley_acbe:
 
12:30 PM Game

... Would like to put a small play on Auburn -18.5, but would like some other thoughts from SEC guys.

1:00 PM Games

... Not a big fan of taking a team like Boston College -35.5 even if they are playing a horrid Buffalo team. Just leaves too many chances for a backdoor cover, especially when Boston College only averages about 25 points a game. May end up taking Barfalo here... MCM any thoughts?

... Will keep a close eye on Bolwing Green 1st Half -10.5 and the game line, as if it drops at all I'll fade Temple pretty quickly. Just want to watch the line movement. Does BG have the ability to cover this spread? I think they do now that their quarterback is more intergrated into the system.

... Thinking of making a small play on Vandy -10, what do you think?

2:00 PM Games

$300 BYU -7 -120
I really like this play as long as it's under -10, my local still has this at 7.5 (pinny is 8) so I figured I'd buy the half point just to be on the safe side. BYU is a high scoring offense averaging 36+ points a game, but only giving up 15. They average over 300 yards passing a game and are a quick striking team. Air Force tries to control games by keeping the ball on the ground, but BYU has a pretty good defense up front. Once Air Force gets behind they're going to have to attempt to pass in the second half, leading to a pretty decent blowout. The last two years BYU beat Air Force by 21 and 17.

... I kind of like Ball State -3.5, but it's hard to bet a team with one win on the year laying points.

... If Army's front 4 on defense wasn't so banged up, I'd take a stronger look at them. But injuries coupled with their offense, I just can't pull the trigger.

... Might make a play on Kent -7 especially if it drops a point or so. Ohio has some injuries at CB and O-line, and Kent should be able to win by a touchdown at home. Interested to see Jump and Rex opinion of this game.

$75 Missouri Money Line -118
I think Oklahoma is going to fold up and die post AD.

2:30 PM Game

... Leaning towards Mississippi State +2 as I think the wrong team is the favorite here. Would love to hear some opinions.

3:00 PM Games

... Looking strong at Florida International +36 points. Alabama isn't that high of a scoring team. Whatcha think?
 
With you on NW buddy. I'm wishing now I would've pulled the trigger on Kent -6. It's at a TD now, but I still might make a play. Not much discussion on this one though, and I haven't seen either team play once this season. GL this week bro! :cheers:
 
Fondy

Like them all bro! Although, haven't looked into the Missouri game at all.

GL bro!

:cheers:
 
Navy lost their starting QB and leading rusher. He's out for the year. The backup didn't play too well against Rutgers and Navy had trouble moving the ball. That's why the line is +14.

I'm leaning ND b/c they own Navy and their weakness on D is their secondary (I think).
 
13_1_201.gif
 
GL fondy, I'd be careful on Vandy in that one, Doook not as bad as everyone thinks
 
Im actually leaning towards duke. Vandy loves to run the ball and thats one thing duke can do is stop the run. They held tha u to like 20 or 30 yards rusing. Either way good luck, Fond. I might take the badgers
 
still not sold on michigan as #2 or the best as you say...i think they are a very vulnerable team and the last fgame of the season it will show i believe i am at work so i will expand mor elater
 
Fondybadger said:
.

$500 Wisconsin -21
$350 Wisconsin 1H -12.5
My one concern, and this is a very weak concern is that it is Halloween weekend in Madison. What that means is that the crowd may not be as lively as it normally is at 11am do to extreme hangovers, but that wouldn't be anything new. My only hope is the players aren't looking towards the parties later on Saturday night and are instead focusing on Illinois. Brett Bielema though has stated he wants to avoid a late season swoon which has been a Wisconsin specialty the last few seasons.

U dont get that kind of insight anywhere else..

CTG:cheers:
 
Fondy, Im a big TCU fan so I know the Mountain West teams a little. I also think BYU -7 is one of the best plays on the board. They have a pretty good all-around team with a very good QB. He will be a first-day QB in the Draft. I think they win by more than 2 scores.
 
Hail Bucky! -21 is a steal, and I'm inclined to agree with 1H as well. Also really like NW getting 34...TCU has me intrigued. Good insight.
 
Hey Fondy,whats your take on wisky this week.man their kicking everyones ass.is it about time for them to get backdoored.
 
rutlemic said:
Hey Fondy,whats your take on wisky this week.man their kicking everyones ass.is it about time for them to get backdoored.

Rutlemic, if you read up above, I have a decent size write-up on the play. If there's anything else there that I'm missing just ask, and I'll try to go over it in more detail.
 
Fondy...you have some very good looking plays. I'm going to be on several of them myself this weekend.

BTW, your team looks great right now. In fact, I would love to see them play Michigan now as opposed to earlier in the season. I think we may see a different outcome if that was to happen. Also, how lucky are the Buckeyes not having to play Wisky this year?
 
Fondy, what are your thoughts on the Wisconsin Gave Over? I have it at 45.0. I think the Badgers could get that themselves. Thoughts?
 
Fondy- It's gonna rain like hell in Boston tomorrow. Ryan is supposed to play but BC can win this game without him. I suspect that Crane will see a lot of action at QB. Tom O'Brien is not a rollit up type of coach. My advice would be to stay away from BC.
From 2000 miles away, I also like Kansas. For whatever that's worth.
GL:cheers:
 
Fondy, you semoncon.......

Dont let the semon heads talk you out of MSU, my best play in the 6 AM HST set...........

First week since the beginning of the season i am not on your badgers.....

Also........the Navy backup QB is from HAWAII, i know him well.....although i like him.....i dont like him in this spot.........Navy could get rolled.....

:spank: :spank: :spank: :spank: :spank: :spank:
 
Pluto Brown said:
Fondy, Im a big TCU fan so I know the Mountain West teams a little. I also think BYU -7 is one of the best plays on the board. They have a pretty good all-around team with a very good QB. He will be a first-day QB in the Draft. I think they win by more than 2 scores.

Pluto, thanks for the insight. If you get a chance post your thoughts on the Mountain West games each week. I definately like getting insight from guys that know the schools a bit better than I do.
 
Muletime said:
Fondy...you have some very good looking plays. I'm going to be on several of them myself this weekend.

BTW, your team looks great right now. In fact, I would love to see them play Michigan now as opposed to earlier in the season. I think we may see a different outcome if that was to happen. Also, how lucky are the Buckeyes not having to play Wisky this year?

Thanks for speaking highly of Wisconsin. Always good to hear others speak well of the alma mater. I'll disagree with you though with regards to Michigan. I think Wisconsin played them about as well as they could in that game. The young wide receivers are starting to step up a bit, and our TE has been awesome - I just think Michigan matches up too well with us. As for the Buckeyes... I won't even go there. JumpOnBoard, might ban me if I give my thoughts.
 
Fondybadger said:
Thanks for speaking highly of Wisconsin. Always good to hear others speak well of the alma mater. I'll disagree with you though with regards to Michigan. I think Wisconsin played them about as well as they could in that game. The young wide receivers are starting to step up a bit, and our TE has been awesome - I just think Michigan matches up too well with us. As for the Buckeyes... I won't even go there. JumpOnBoard, might ban me if I give my thoughts.

Jump is trigger happy ;)
 
ontime23 said:
fondy,

quit talkin shit about my schools offense

Get an offense that proves they're not complete rejects and maybe I will... I just listen to what jhunter tells me about you guys :)
 
ghost said:
Fondy, what are your thoughts on the Wisconsin Gave Over? I have it at 45.0. I think the Badgers could get that themselves. Thoughts?

  • In Badger games the average score is 44.1
  • In Illinois games the average score is 44.9
  • Last year the score was 41-24 = 69 points
  • Illinois defense has started playing pretty well the last few games, but their offense is at about 21 a game...
  • Illinois is averaging 11 points a game in 3 road games this year
  • Wisconsin has averaged about 38 points per game in their last 3
I think the game will be around 38-45 pointes for Wisky and 0-13 for Illinois

That said, I'd almost rather put my money on the Badgers team total of over 33.5 instead of the game over 45. I could see Illinois being shut out, and wisky should put up 4 TD's and 2 Fg's minimum.
 
bull said:
Fondy- It's gonna rain like hell in Boston tomorrow. Ryan is supposed to play but BC can win this game without him. I suspect that Crane will see a lot of action at QB. Tom O'Brien is not a rollit up type of coach. My advice would be to stay away from BC.

Thanks for the thoughts Bull... I'm thinking I like Buffalo here then. I need to see how the line has changed the last few days though first. Going to be spending the next few hours finishing up my card.
 
Man you got a lot of plays. Heres to hoping you win every single one of em. You future lawyer.


:cheers:
 
3:30 PM Game

$100 Wake Forest -8.5
$75 WF/UNC under 40.5
I haven't really watched either of these two teams. This play is strictly on the numbers. Wake Forest has been winning by an average of 9 points a game based on a solid defense. UNC hasn't scored too well this season and loses by an average of 19 points. UNC is also 1-6 ATS this season, while Wake Forest is 6-1.

... Looks like Stevie Hicks will play for Iowa State +4, but I don't know either team well enough for have a feel in this game to make a play.

$200 Ohio State 1H -14
$75 Ohio State -27
Minnesota should get knocked down early and often. Don't see them having too much fight left in them this season. Should be a quick lead for the Buckeyes and then cruise for the win.

...eastern/western michigan no thoughts

$125 Georgia +14 -115
Might be a bit foolish here with all the injuries Georgia has suffered the last few weeks, and their inability to score, but Florida/UGA games are always played tight. Florida isn't a high scoring team and although I expect them to win, Georgia should stay within two TD's.

$200 USC 1H -6.5
$100 USC -10 -120
Yah I should be fading USC all season, but instead I'll keep riding them.

$100 Georgia Tech -4.5
Miami has self destructed. Johnson should have a field day with that Miami defense.

$75 Nebraska -6
Gut feeling
 
Fondy - somehow this whole week I missed your card, but couldn't be happier to see you on Wisky. I've been riding them all year, but didn't see many on them so far this week so was a bit nervous. I pulled the trigger on them though for my largest wager of the week because my numbers show that line should be closer to 35. Anyway, BOL to ya!
 
Got some things I need to do here, so no time for write-ups on these additions to the card. If there's a game you'd like to discuss hit me up sometime tonight or early Saturday morning. I'll have a wedding and be gone all day.

7:00 PM and later
$100 Maryland +4
$300 Texas -10
$125 Texas 1H -6.5
$75 Baylor +4.5
$125 Tenny -3 -115
$225 Hawaii 1H -14


 
ADDITIONS (not in order by start time)$75 Buffalo +34
$50 Syracuse +7
$125 Michigan State -7
$175 MSU/Indiana under 56 +102 (Pinny)
$100 Penn State -3
$50 Utah -21
$75 Idaho/Hawaii under 71 +100 (Pinny)
$50 Syracuse TT OVER 15.5 +100 (Pinny)
$125 Wisconsin TT OVER 33.5 -113 (Pinny)
$50 Wisky/Illinois 1Q OVER 10
$50 Texas/TT 1Q OVER 13.5 +105
$20 Baylor 1Q ML +133
 
I just think Michigan matches up too well with us. As for the Buckeyes... I won't even go there. JumpOnBoard, might ban me if I give my thoughts.


:down:



as for BAR....three more weeks bitch....:drink:
 
Thanks guys hopefully it will be a nice day.

Weather update for Wisconsin game.

Expected kickoff temperature at is suppose to be around 42 degrees with a 20 mph wind from the West Northwest. Thus the wind will be predominantly blowing from the upperclass student section (Section P) on Wisconsin's sideline towards Illinois bench (Crosswind from sideline to sideline). In the five years I had season tickets at Wisconsin I don't recall wind every being a problem on the field or in the stands. With the field entirely closed in in a bowl shape, and skyboxes surrounding the field above that, I don't think the wind will haev a lot of effect on the game.
 
Coppsguy said:
Man you got a lot of plays. Heres to hoping you win every single one of em. You future lawyer.


:cheers:

LOL....

Hey Fondy...do you pay someone to do your record keeping?

Good luck today!
 
wiskyman said:
Fondy im a big 10 guy also. Why Penn State because i was defintly leaning toward Purdue pretty heavy.

I think the weather today will effect Purdue's passing game, and as we seen recently Purdue doesn't have much of a ground game. I think Penn State is better with the weather out there today, plus I'm in a fade Purdue mode based on a few games I've seen them play.
 
smh212 said:
LOL....

Hey Fondy...do you pay someone to do your record keeping?

Good luck today!

I think figuring out my record takes as much time as actually figuring out my plays. I have three records I need to keep track of - Pinny (thankfully they do it for me), my local and then my combined one. Two weeknight games this week = 16 plays... lol, thank god I don't do that on Saturday's...
 
Jesus Fondy if you did on Saturdays what you do on the weeknights you WOULD have to hire someone full time - not just to do your record-keeping, but another person to put all the freakin bets in..... hahaha

GL today buddy...
 
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