Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Sunday could have been a horrible day. I didn't get home until 6am Sunday morning and I was already beat. I finished up my football card, got it posted, and was ready to take a nap before the games started. Anyways, I checked out my email and I had my LSAT results in there. Didn't do near as well as I had hoped I had. Couldn't get to sleep for the life of me and ended up being awake until Miami scored their first TD against the Packers. During that commercial break I fell asleep in my computer chair and missed the rest of the games yesterday. Never put in any 4pm plays, nor any second half plays. Looking back over things, I'd have gotten smoked if I did. Anyways, finished 12-13 yesterday +$46ish so I'll happily take that after the crappy weekend I had.
2006 NFL Overall 198-161-13 +$4730.00
Preseason 54-36-3 +$1042.10
Week One 17-11 +$688
Week Two 19-15 +$240.50
Week Three 16-16-1 +$364.25
Week Four 22-26-2 +$152.85
Week Five 22-23-2 +$756
Week Six 36-21-4 +$1439.80
Week Seven 12-13-1 +$46.50
1st Quarter 29-24-4 +$345.75
1Q Fave 13-7 +$171.65
1Q ML 3-3-1 +$8.05
1Q Dog 2-2 +$30.10
1Q Over 10-10-3 +$120.95
1Q Under 1-2 +$15
First Half 46-35-3 +$1514.50
Faves 25-14 +$1317
MoLine 1-7 -$419.50
Dogs 14-3-1 +$926
Over 5-9-2 -$314
Under 1-2 +$5
Second Half 18-15 +$1774
Fave 10-7 +$1659
Dogs 3-3 +$153
MoLi 1-1 -$50
Over 4-3 +$99
Under 0-1 -$87
Full Game 105-87-6 +$1095.75
Faves 47-38-2 -$35.75
Dogs 26-25-3 +$142
ML 2-2 -$57.50
Over 11-10-1 +$553
Unders 19-12 +$494
Props 14-17 +$27.80
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Lets talk...
How are the stats?
Both the Cowboys and Giants are 3-2 on the season and against the spread. The Giants average 49.8 yards more per game on offense then the Cowboys. The Cowboys allow 41.6 yards per game less on defense. Giants outscore their opponents by about 3.6 per game, but are down an average of 9.8 at halftime. Thus, the Giants have been out scoring their oppenets by over 13 in the second half this season. Cowboys are up around 3 points at halftime and win by an average of 11 a game. Both teams do a good job of controlling the clock, and the Giants are slightly more of an "explosive" team. Giants schedule has been just a shade higher as well.
For common opponents they have both beaten Washington. Giants at home by 16 and Dallas at home by 17. The Cowboys lost by 14 going to Philly while the Giants won by 6 at Philly.
Here's a look at a few trends.
All games in this series since 1992
NY GIANTS
S Jason Bell (Concussion) injured last game, "?". - 10/16
LB Carlos Emmons (Pectoral) missed last few games, "?". - 10/16
SS Gibril Wilson (Toe) missed last game, "?". - 10/15
RB Derrick Ward (Foot) is expected to miss at least 4-6 weeks. - 8/8
OT Lewis Kelly (Foot) IR - 8/7
DALLAS
DE Jason Hatcher (Ankle) is "?". - 10/17
WR Jamaica Rector (Ankle) has been released. - 10/17
Fondy's Game Breakdown
The first question I ask myself in games that involved the Dallas Cowboy's is what type of impact will Terrell Owen's have on the game? As we have all seen he can change games or seasons, by taking over on the field or being a distraction on the sideline. Most of the time there is conflict involving T.O. is when he's not getting the ball. Based on comments this week you should believe that the Cowboys will do everything they can to get the rock in his hands. As the Giants have a tendency to get down early, I'm thinking T.O. will be a happy camper and a productive member of the Cowboys for most of the game.
The second question is how will all of the talk with Tiki Barber retiring effect the team this season? With the game being Monday night, I don't think it will have much, if any effect. If anything, I think if Tiki has those retirement thoughts in his head, he'll be going all out even more than normal. Overall, this situation I'm not going to let me effect the capping of this game.
Going into this week Tiki Barber was the league's leading rusher. Dallas is the #1 ranked defense against the run. What kind of effect will this have on the game? Well, I think that the Cowboys will continue to be dominate in this game and Tiki will be shut down running the ball. Somewhere in the 60-70 yard range. I think he will play a major role though in the air on check down passes.
Eli Manning is stepping up to that next level this season. With Toomer, Burress, and Shockey he has the offensive weapons to prosper. Will he have time to get them the ball? The one time that I really watched Dallas play this season was against Philly and their defensive backs looked horrible. Is that a good assesment? Or are Dallas's db's acceptable?
After seeing what the Giants front seven did to Mike Vick and the Falcon's by putting pressure on him leading to seven sacks, I'm licking my lips to see what the real speadster Drew Bledsoe can do. Look for some pressure up front causing an interception or two.
I think the key to this game will be how well the Giants handle Julius Jones. If Jones has an above average game I feel the Cowboys win this game - still by single digits though. If NYG can take away or limit the run, they should be able to tee off on Bledsoe, effecting the entire Cowboys offense.
I think this will be a higher scoring game with both offenses being in the 20-30 point range. The best play I think in this game is on the over. For a side I think this game is around 50-50% on who should win and will win. Complete toss up really as you can make a solid case for either side. I'm leaning towards the Giants +3 here as I feel that they should be able to win straight up and this will be a single score game one way or another. With how the Giants have started this season in games, a 1H play on the Cowboys might be warranted? What does everyone think?
What I will more than likely be playing (all current Pinny lines)...
Which team will score first? Toss up, I always take +money in something like that. No Play
Which team will score last? Another toss up. I have a feeling who ever scores last will win this game though. No Play
Will the team that scores first win the game? As I expect this game to be a shootout, and their isn't a big difference between these teams, taking no at +157 might be something I'd consider. I've never played a prop like that before. Does anyone have any insight in regards to it? Possible - discuss
Will the first score of the game be a TD? This is a play that I'd examine a teams redzone offense of touchdown to field goal ratio and an oppentes defense. Choosing no at +132 might be worth it, but this is more luck then skill deciding. Does anyone know where you can find a teams red zone stats? No Play
Will there be a score in the first 7:03 in the game?
I feel that there will be a score quickly on the first drive of the game. Possible small play on yes -113
Either team score 3 consecutive times?
I'd look to no but you never can tell with something like this. No Play
Either team score in the last 2 minutes of the first half?
Don't think I'd want to take no in this play, but the juice at yes is way too high. No Play
Last score of 1st half be a field goal?
Who knows... no lean either way. No Play
Will the longest Touchdown be over 42.5 yards?
The No is only -110. Does anyone know how many games per week on average where there is a TD play over 42.5 yards? I just don't see a TD play of 42.5 or more in a game happening more than 47.6% on average through an NFL season or with either of these two teams involved. That's purely speculation though on my part. Possible - discuss
Will the shortest Touchdown be over 1½ yards?
I personally like the yes at +112, but I'm not sure why. Possible - discuss
Will there be a score in last 3min of the 4th Qtr?
I definately think there will be. A solid sized prop play at -114 Very Possible
Will either Team score a safety?
Doubt it
Which Team will punt first?
Who knows
Will the total field goals made be over 3.5?
Possible, think more td's will be scored than anything. But I could see some td's turn into field goals real easy. This might be a play I play a tad larger on the over, for the fact I think the game will go over, and if it doesn't I think it will because there is a lot of field goals. Possible
Total Quarterback sacks to be over 5?
They're averaging 4.8 sacks a game combined defensively. And Bledsoe and Manning are sacked an average of 4.6 times per game. Now I'd definately take NO if 5 sacks counted as a win seeing 5 sacks isn't over 5... I'm actually confused on the wording of this question. Anyone know how Pinny grades this? Possible
Will the game go into overtime?
At +1050 in what I expect a close game there might be some value.
Will there be a defensive or special Team TD?
Crap shoot.
Will the Cowboys have a rush TD? Will the Giants have a rush TD?
Giants are +146 No, Cowboys +190 no. What does everyone think about taking them both as "no's" and hoping for a split at least? Possible
Gross passing yards by Eli Manning?
Over 256.5 passing yards +108
Under 256.5 passing yards -124
Eli Manning is averaging 265.8 yards per game passing.
Dallas is allowing 212.5 yards per game passing.
GUT FEELING OVER...
Gross passing yards by Drew Bledsoe?
Over 231.5 passing yards -120 484
Under 231.5 passing yards +104
Drew Bledsoe is averaging 210.6 yards per game passing.
Giants are allowing 207.4 passing yards a game.
WILL LOOK TO THE UNDER...
Total rushing yards by Tiki Barber?
Over 90.5 rushing yards -105
Under 90.5 rushing yards -111
Tiki Barber is averaging 106.6 yards per game
Cowboys are allowing 67 yards per game (#1 in NFL)
LOOKING AT LARGE UNDER
Total rushing yards by Julius Jones?
Over 88.5 rushing yards -108
Under 88.5 rushing yards -108
Julius Jones is averaging 98.8 yards per game
Giants are allowing 113.8 yards per game
LOOKING AT DECENT SIZE OVER
Most receiving yards Burress vs. Owens
Plaxico Burress +6.5 receiving yards -110
Terrell Owens -6.5 receiving yards -106
Plaxico Buress is averaging 66 yards per game
Terrell Owens is averaging 55.4 yards per game
Most receiving yards Toomer vs. Glenn
Amani Toomer +12.5 receiving yards +104
Terry Glenn -12.5 receiving yards -120
Amani Toomer is averaging 61.2 yards per game
Terry Glenn is averaging 67.4 yards per game
Don't really have a lot of thoughts on the two receiving props. Like Toomer +12.5 though the best of those two. Think Glenn's numbers are inflated with Owens being banged up or out here and there.
Well that's about it... I'll spend the afternoon thinking what I like for sure and debating how much I want to go on the plays. I'm open to hearing what everyone has to say. If you haven't posted at CTG before, why not make your first post in this thread?
:cheers:
BEST OF LUCK!!!
2006 NFL Overall 198-161-13 +$4730.00
Preseason 54-36-3 +$1042.10
Week One 17-11 +$688
Week Two 19-15 +$240.50
Week Three 16-16-1 +$364.25
Week Four 22-26-2 +$152.85
Week Five 22-23-2 +$756
Week Six 36-21-4 +$1439.80
Week Seven 12-13-1 +$46.50
1st Quarter 29-24-4 +$345.75
1Q Fave 13-7 +$171.65
1Q ML 3-3-1 +$8.05
1Q Dog 2-2 +$30.10
1Q Over 10-10-3 +$120.95
1Q Under 1-2 +$15
First Half 46-35-3 +$1514.50
Faves 25-14 +$1317
MoLine 1-7 -$419.50
Dogs 14-3-1 +$926
Over 5-9-2 -$314
Under 1-2 +$5
Second Half 18-15 +$1774
Fave 10-7 +$1659
Dogs 3-3 +$153
MoLi 1-1 -$50
Over 4-3 +$99
Under 0-1 -$87
Full Game 105-87-6 +$1095.75
Faves 47-38-2 -$35.75
Dogs 26-25-3 +$142
ML 2-2 -$57.50
Over 11-10-1 +$553
Unders 19-12 +$494
Props 14-17 +$27.80
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Lets talk...
How are the stats?
Both the Cowboys and Giants are 3-2 on the season and against the spread. The Giants average 49.8 yards more per game on offense then the Cowboys. The Cowboys allow 41.6 yards per game less on defense. Giants outscore their opponents by about 3.6 per game, but are down an average of 9.8 at halftime. Thus, the Giants have been out scoring their oppenets by over 13 in the second half this season. Cowboys are up around 3 points at halftime and win by an average of 11 a game. Both teams do a good job of controlling the clock, and the Giants are slightly more of an "explosive" team. Giants schedule has been just a shade higher as well.
For common opponents they have both beaten Washington. Giants at home by 16 and Dallas at home by 17. The Cowboys lost by 14 going to Philly while the Giants won by 6 at Philly.
Here's a look at a few trends.
All games in this series since 1992
- DALLAS is 14-13 against the spread versus NY GIANTS since 1992
- DALLAS is 15-13 straight up against NY GIANTS since 1992
- 16 of 26 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
- NY GIANTS is 3-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
- NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
- 3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
- DALLAS is 9-4 against the spread versus NY GIANTS since 1992
- DALLAS is 10-4 straight up against NY GIANTS since 1992
- 9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
- NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
- DALLAS is 1-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
- 2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS
S Jason Bell (Concussion) injured last game, "?". - 10/16
LB Carlos Emmons (Pectoral) missed last few games, "?". - 10/16
SS Gibril Wilson (Toe) missed last game, "?". - 10/15
RB Derrick Ward (Foot) is expected to miss at least 4-6 weeks. - 8/8
OT Lewis Kelly (Foot) IR - 8/7
DALLAS
DE Jason Hatcher (Ankle) is "?". - 10/17
WR Jamaica Rector (Ankle) has been released. - 10/17
Fondy's Game Breakdown
The first question I ask myself in games that involved the Dallas Cowboy's is what type of impact will Terrell Owen's have on the game? As we have all seen he can change games or seasons, by taking over on the field or being a distraction on the sideline. Most of the time there is conflict involving T.O. is when he's not getting the ball. Based on comments this week you should believe that the Cowboys will do everything they can to get the rock in his hands. As the Giants have a tendency to get down early, I'm thinking T.O. will be a happy camper and a productive member of the Cowboys for most of the game.
The second question is how will all of the talk with Tiki Barber retiring effect the team this season? With the game being Monday night, I don't think it will have much, if any effect. If anything, I think if Tiki has those retirement thoughts in his head, he'll be going all out even more than normal. Overall, this situation I'm not going to let me effect the capping of this game.
Going into this week Tiki Barber was the league's leading rusher. Dallas is the #1 ranked defense against the run. What kind of effect will this have on the game? Well, I think that the Cowboys will continue to be dominate in this game and Tiki will be shut down running the ball. Somewhere in the 60-70 yard range. I think he will play a major role though in the air on check down passes.
Eli Manning is stepping up to that next level this season. With Toomer, Burress, and Shockey he has the offensive weapons to prosper. Will he have time to get them the ball? The one time that I really watched Dallas play this season was against Philly and their defensive backs looked horrible. Is that a good assesment? Or are Dallas's db's acceptable?
After seeing what the Giants front seven did to Mike Vick and the Falcon's by putting pressure on him leading to seven sacks, I'm licking my lips to see what the real speadster Drew Bledsoe can do. Look for some pressure up front causing an interception or two.
I think the key to this game will be how well the Giants handle Julius Jones. If Jones has an above average game I feel the Cowboys win this game - still by single digits though. If NYG can take away or limit the run, they should be able to tee off on Bledsoe, effecting the entire Cowboys offense.
I think this will be a higher scoring game with both offenses being in the 20-30 point range. The best play I think in this game is on the over. For a side I think this game is around 50-50% on who should win and will win. Complete toss up really as you can make a solid case for either side. I'm leaning towards the Giants +3 here as I feel that they should be able to win straight up and this will be a single score game one way or another. With how the Giants have started this season in games, a 1H play on the Cowboys might be warranted? What does everyone think?
What I will more than likely be playing (all current Pinny lines)...
- NYG/Dallas OVER 44.5 -104, around 2.5 units
- NYG/Dallas OVER 23 +107, around 2 units
- NYG +3 +109 for 1 unit or so (more if it goes to +3.5 - will also look for a 2H play as I feel they'll be down at halftime by around a TD)
- Dallas 1st Half -2.5 (with how Giants have performed 1H's you almost have to)
- 1Q OVER 9.5 -105 and possible Dallas -0.5 for shits and giggles
Which team will score first? Toss up, I always take +money in something like that. No Play
Which team will score last? Another toss up. I have a feeling who ever scores last will win this game though. No Play
Will the team that scores first win the game? As I expect this game to be a shootout, and their isn't a big difference between these teams, taking no at +157 might be something I'd consider. I've never played a prop like that before. Does anyone have any insight in regards to it? Possible - discuss
Will the first score of the game be a TD? This is a play that I'd examine a teams redzone offense of touchdown to field goal ratio and an oppentes defense. Choosing no at +132 might be worth it, but this is more luck then skill deciding. Does anyone know where you can find a teams red zone stats? No Play
Will there be a score in the first 7:03 in the game?
I feel that there will be a score quickly on the first drive of the game. Possible small play on yes -113
Either team score 3 consecutive times?
I'd look to no but you never can tell with something like this. No Play
Either team score in the last 2 minutes of the first half?
Don't think I'd want to take no in this play, but the juice at yes is way too high. No Play
Last score of 1st half be a field goal?
Who knows... no lean either way. No Play
Will the longest Touchdown be over 42.5 yards?
The No is only -110. Does anyone know how many games per week on average where there is a TD play over 42.5 yards? I just don't see a TD play of 42.5 or more in a game happening more than 47.6% on average through an NFL season or with either of these two teams involved. That's purely speculation though on my part. Possible - discuss
Will the shortest Touchdown be over 1½ yards?
I personally like the yes at +112, but I'm not sure why. Possible - discuss
Will there be a score in last 3min of the 4th Qtr?
I definately think there will be. A solid sized prop play at -114 Very Possible
Will either Team score a safety?
Doubt it
Which Team will punt first?
Who knows
Will the total field goals made be over 3.5?
Possible, think more td's will be scored than anything. But I could see some td's turn into field goals real easy. This might be a play I play a tad larger on the over, for the fact I think the game will go over, and if it doesn't I think it will because there is a lot of field goals. Possible
Total Quarterback sacks to be over 5?
They're averaging 4.8 sacks a game combined defensively. And Bledsoe and Manning are sacked an average of 4.6 times per game. Now I'd definately take NO if 5 sacks counted as a win seeing 5 sacks isn't over 5... I'm actually confused on the wording of this question. Anyone know how Pinny grades this? Possible
Will the game go into overtime?
At +1050 in what I expect a close game there might be some value.
Will there be a defensive or special Team TD?
Crap shoot.
Will the Cowboys have a rush TD? Will the Giants have a rush TD?
Giants are +146 No, Cowboys +190 no. What does everyone think about taking them both as "no's" and hoping for a split at least? Possible
Gross passing yards by Eli Manning?
Over 256.5 passing yards +108
Under 256.5 passing yards -124
Eli Manning is averaging 265.8 yards per game passing.
Dallas is allowing 212.5 yards per game passing.
GUT FEELING OVER...
Gross passing yards by Drew Bledsoe?
Over 231.5 passing yards -120 484
Under 231.5 passing yards +104
Drew Bledsoe is averaging 210.6 yards per game passing.
Giants are allowing 207.4 passing yards a game.
WILL LOOK TO THE UNDER...
Total rushing yards by Tiki Barber?
Over 90.5 rushing yards -105
Under 90.5 rushing yards -111
Tiki Barber is averaging 106.6 yards per game
Cowboys are allowing 67 yards per game (#1 in NFL)
LOOKING AT LARGE UNDER
Total rushing yards by Julius Jones?
Over 88.5 rushing yards -108
Under 88.5 rushing yards -108
Julius Jones is averaging 98.8 yards per game
Giants are allowing 113.8 yards per game
LOOKING AT DECENT SIZE OVER
Most receiving yards Burress vs. Owens
Plaxico Burress +6.5 receiving yards -110
Terrell Owens -6.5 receiving yards -106
Plaxico Buress is averaging 66 yards per game
Terrell Owens is averaging 55.4 yards per game
Most receiving yards Toomer vs. Glenn
Amani Toomer +12.5 receiving yards +104
Terry Glenn -12.5 receiving yards -120
Amani Toomer is averaging 61.2 yards per game
Terry Glenn is averaging 67.4 yards per game
Don't really have a lot of thoughts on the two receiving props. Like Toomer +12.5 though the best of those two. Think Glenn's numbers are inflated with Owens being banged up or out here and there.
Well that's about it... I'll spend the afternoon thinking what I like for sure and debating how much I want to go on the plays. I'm open to hearing what everyone has to say. If you haven't posted at CTG before, why not make your first post in this thread?
:cheers:
BEST OF LUCK!!!
