Fondybadger's Week 2 College Football

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
2008 College Football 66-35-1 +$2214

Will update first window with all my wagers. Some thoughts may be available on select games in post #2. If there's a game you'd like thoughts on ask. If you disagree with a wager, let me know and give some of your own thoughts. In ( ) the first number is the full game bet for the time slot I currently don't have a wager on, the second number is first half wagers. Trying to do that to help me keep track on what games I'm not on yet. I'm not going to be around a T.V. until right before the 3:30 games kickoff, or at least I don't believe I will. I'll probably be connected to the internet the whole time, but I have a meeting for my Law Review from 10am-2pm. Pisses me off I'll be missing the Wisky game.

Week Two 47-54-5 -$3752

Best of luck!
:smiley_acbe:
 
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I'll edit this window if I do write-ups on a specific game. Sides in blue I've already put a wager in on.

Thursday

South Carolina -9.5 at Vanderbilt
Strong Lean on S.C.

Friday
Navy at Ball State -7
I'll be at the Brewer game, so I doubt I'll make a wager on this game.

Saturday

12:00
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State -24
Hard to get a read on E. Mich as they beat Indiana State 52-0 in week 1, but Indiana State hasn't won since 2006. Eastern Michigan returns 8 starters on offense, and 7 on defense, but they haven't won consistently in the past. Michigan State struggles on defense at Cal, but showed they could put up some numbers on a decent defense. I see no problems for Michigan State to score in this game and will let the line drop. Look for a bigger bet on 1H on this game come next week. Expect a MSU blow out.

Miami Ohio at Michigan -14.5 -105 (total)

Two teams coming off embarrassing games at home. With Miami returning 17 starters from a MAC championship runner-up team, expectations were a bit higher than what they showed against Vandy. Most of us are familiar with what happened in Michigan. I feel that momentum will be on Michigan's side in this game and they should win it. Don't want to pay for the hook at this point and don't feel comfortable with the line for either side.

Georgia Tech at Boston College -7 -105 (total)

GT won 41-14 against Jacksonville State team led by Ryan Perrilloux (ex-LSU QB). GT fumbled 5 times in the game, and their freshman kicker missed fg attempts from 38 and 52. Boston College has fifth year senior Chris Crane replacing Matt Ryan and he did everything he needed to controlling the game, including 2 td rushes. That said I don't know how Boston College, and a fairly decent defense will handle the new offense at GT (remember the new GT coach ran the triple option at Navy). I think it will be a pretty interesting game and I see this game decided by 3 or 4 points, so I'm assuming I'll be on GT at some point as I think they can control things on the ground.

Ohio at Ohio State -34
I was very impressed with Ohio going into Wyoming, but am worried that the air may be taken from the team by the disappointing finish and 1 point loss. Regardless of Beanie Wells playing, tOSU should be able to run all over this team and failure to take advantage of opportunties will really hurt Ohio. Ohio State can cover this line if they want to. There's nothing Ohio can do to stop it. That said I think Ohio State is looking ahead for the following week and Ohio loses by something in the 20's. I'll be on Ohio, but want to watch line movement for a bit.

Marshall at Wisconsin -21
Wisconsin's defense was disappointing in week 1. I feel that coach Bielema will be busting their balls this week and they'll have more passion this week. Wisconsin should have also won their game this past week against Akron by 35+. A fumbled TD attempt through the endzone and a late interception in the half cost more than a few Wisconsin points. Even with returning 16 starters Marshall is expected to be a bottom feeder this season. The fast temple that Marshall is employeeing this season shouldn't cause too many issue for Wisconsin's defense. Marshall's first year starting QB will be making his first road start and you can't expect good things to happen. Don't feel Marshalls offense will put up the points needed to cover this game. Look for something in the neighborhood of 42-13 Wisconsin.

Connecticut -7 at Temple
My gut is telling me to take Temple and run, but my mind can't rap around the fact that I will be taking Temple for the 2nd week in a row. Temple returns 21 of 22 starters and are poised to have a .500 type of season. UConn has Tyler Lorenzen who's going to want to make up for his 3 interceptions in week 1, and who normally doesn't turn over the ball. Temple has improved, but I don't think that much, believe I'm going to ride UConn, but want to see some more information and get some feedback first.

Florida International at Iowa -27
Iowa beat Maine by 43 in week 1, while Florida International was bailed out by Kansas not going all out and only losing by 30. I don't know if Iowa has the defense to stop FIU and the offense to put up a four TD win. I'm leaning towards FIU, but don't really like taking a Sunbelt team on the road against a Big 10 team. Both teams return 9 starters on offense, both teams defenses will struggle a bit. Lean towards FIU, but eh.

12:30
Southern Miss at Auburn -17 -105

The line looks a bit high to me, but I can see Auburn covering it. Not sure what I'm going to do with this game, but feel this game will be a great tell for Southern Miss. season. Leaning towards taking the points as of now.

San Jose State at Nebraska -26.5
Last season SJST lost to Arizona State, Kansas State, and Stanford by a score of 116-17 (33/game) in non-conference play. They return 6 players on each side of the ball this season. In their first game they won 13-10 against UC Davis. In that game SJST used 3 different QB's with their 3rd stringer throwing the winning touch down. UC Davis was able to move the ball quite a bit, and I really don't see them stopping Nebraska. Those of us who were on W. Michigan know what Nebraska is able to do offensively and I see this a route of 40-50 points.

3:00
Byu at Washington No Line

3:30
Akron at Syracuse
-5.5
Utah State at Oregon -34
Cincinnati at Oklahoma -21
Central Michigan at Georgia -23
Oregon State at Penn State -15.5
Air Force at Wyoming -3

San Diego State at Notre Dame -20
First let me laugh a bit at SDST losing at home to Cal Poly. Apologies to our Aztec alum, but that was pitiful way to open the season. Last season SDST went 4-8 (1-3 non-conference) and return only 4 on offense, while bringing back 8 guys on defense. Red shirt freshmen Ryan Lindley set school freshmen records going 27 of 45 for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions (5 total turnovers for SDST in the game). SDST rushed a total of 23 times in the game... for a grand total of 27 yards. 27 yards rushing against Cal Poly! Will they be in positive yards against Notre Dame? In terms of WR's they lost their best two to the NFL draft. In the spring game, the team ran 45 plays offensively and gained a massive 110 yards. I'll be shocked if they break double digits offensively. While they bring back a lot of defensive players, frankly they're not that good. San Diego St. is going to a fade the entire first half of the season until some of these young kids get experience and the lines get too high. Only positive I can find for SDST is they've got the first game kinks out of their system, and Notre Dame will be beating up on another team for the first time. I trust in Jimmy Clausen and Charlie Weis. Maybe stupidly. Offensive line should be good to go this year after struggling to block, especially offensively. With 9 returning starters they should be able to score 30+ points against SDST. The defensive back field returns 3 of 4 starters for Notre Dame and I don't think SDST will have a ton of success with them, which is going to be their only chance to move the ball. There's a ton of blue chip recruits on Notre Dame that have been in the system another year now, and have gained experience. I think Notre Dame is very ready to put last season behind them and show their fans and nation they're at least on their way back to respectability.

Mississippi at Wake Forest -8.5

4:00
UAB at Florida Atlantic -14

4:30
West Virginia -9 -105 at Eastern Carolina

This game intrigues me. I've under-appreciated East Carolina and if I hop on them right now I feel as if I'll be too reactionary. I really feel I'll end up being on West Virginia and expect the line to drop to around 7.5 or so and I'll buy down to 7. With Pat White at the helm WVU will be able to put up numbers all year. Eastern Carolina got 1 of their TD's on a punt block and the Hokies struggled to move the ball against a solid ECU defense. I don't see ECU stopping WVU.

5:00
Texas A&M at New Mexico

6:00
Buffalo at Pittsburgh -11.5
This game is similar to Temple/UConn in that I'm afraid to back Buffalo for the 2nd week in a row. Want to go back to the well, but pornstache should have Pittsburgh ready to go and I expect a win out of them. Maybe look at a ML parlay as I'm afraid to lay too many points with this team. If Pittsburgh would have won last week I'd have been all over Buffalo, but things don't play out for any decent size wager on this one.

6:30
California -13 at Washington State

Upsets happen all the time in the Pac-10 as you always have a bottom feeder knocking off the big boy or two in conference play. This isn't the week for it. Washington State couldn't get points on the board even when their starting QB was in there and before his concussion. They couldn't establish anything on the ground. They did hold Oklahoma State to fg's, otherwise the score would have really been a blow out. California should have blown the game open on MSU, but allowed them to stick around. I'm hoping California can put this game away early and not look back. Bigger first half if I can get this at -7 -120, but a solid wager on Cal for the game as well.

7:00
Northwestern -6 at Duke
Tulane at Alabama -28
Houston at Oklahoma State -13.5
Kent at Iowa State -7.5
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan -6
South Florida -14 at Central Florida
Louisiana Tech at Kansas -20.5
UL Monroe at Arkansas -14.5
Tulsa -20 at North Texas
Maryland -13.5 at Middle Tennessee State

7:30
Minnesota at Bowling Grenn no line

8:00
Miami Florida at Florida -21
Rice at Memphis -3
UNLV at Utah -21
Troy at LSU no line

9:00
Texas Tech -9 at Nevada

10:00
Toledo at Arizona -22
Stanford at Arizona State -14.5

10:15
Texas -25 at UTEP
 
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I will be with you on ND. In fact, that will likely be my play of the week provided I can get it at below 21.
 
One thing I need to point out is if you disagree with a play, don't be afraid to tell me I'm full of shit as long as you have some reasons to back you up (and it's not after the fact). I can always buy off a play and getting more information/opposite thoughts only help out others reading this thread.
 
One thing I need to point out is if you disagree with a play, don't be afraid to tell me I'm full of shit as long as you have some reasons to back you up (and it's not after the fact). I can always buy off a play and getting more information/opposite thoughts only help out others reading this thread.

Well ive only looked at the Pitt game early , but im sure ill disagree more later on since you love that chalk. But I think you fella's are expecting way too much out Wannstedt like I did before BG. I realized the error of my ways halfway through the 3rd qaurter on Satuday. Of course there is a chance Pitt covers, but the notion that Wannstedt is gonna wake this team up and wont let another game like that happen again is a little bit nuts. There were a lot of games through out his 4 years I guess now? Of terror, that I have said this, COME ON DAVE, and he has let me down over and over again. Seriously I wont be suprised if Buffalo wins this game.

But GL on everything else, and good luck on Pitt :) I hope they win, just have my doubts
 
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Well ive only looked at the Pitt game early , but im sure ill disagree more later on since you love that chalk. But I think you fella's are expecting way too much out Wannstedt like I did before BG. I realized the error of my ways halfway through the 3rd qaurter on Satuday. Of course there is a chance Pitt covers, but the notion that Wannstedt is gonna wake this team up and wont let another game like that happen again is a little bit nuts. There were a lot of games through out his 4 years I guess now? Of terror, that I have said this, COME ON DAVE, and he has let me down over and over again. Seriously I wont be suprised if Buffalo wins this game.

But GL on everything else, and good luck on Pitt :) I hope they win, just have my doubts

I see a straight-up win for Pitt, but that's about the only thing I'm relatively confident with. Will look for more information out of you later in the week.
 
Hey Fondy, is it just me or the 125 beers I have had today, but doesn't Wake at home giving 8 over Ole Piss look like easy money?

Talk me out of it.:cheers:
 
Admittedly, I don't know much about San Diego State, but I will provide some insight into ND. The strength of ND's defense will be the defensive backfield, as it was last season. In the defensive backfield they return two starters (Bruton at Safety and Lambert at CB) and the other two starters are very solid and pretty experienced in McCarthy (Safety in place of Zibikowski) and McNeil in place of Darrin Walls who is suspended from school for the year.

Adding to the fact the defensive backfield is a strength, look for Coach Tenuta (former GT d-coordinator and now LB coach/Asst. Head Coach) to make it very difficult on the QB with blitzes from all over the place.

If SDSU is going to move the ball on a consistent basis it will be on the ground where I think the ND defense will struggle once again, especially given the loss of Trevor Laws. However, it is hard for me to imagine the SDSU o-line being able to get that good of push on the ND d-line and if they do, look for ND to stack the box.

I say all of this because I don't see SDSU scoring more than approximately 10 points in this game, the majority of which will come off a big play or two as I believe ND's defense will be susceptible to the big play with their blitzing scheme.

On the other hand, look for ND's offense to be much improved as the o-line has gained a year of experience and should be able to get a great push against the depleted SDSU d-line all day. Adding to the o-line being more experienced, ND will use a three back rotation in Hughes, Allen, and Aldridge, all of which bring a little something different to the game. Look for ND to come out of the gates looking to pound the ball, after which they will use some play action pass plays. With all of this said, I predict ND's offense to score 38 points. While Weis will definately keep a few things up his sleeve for Michigan the following week, he knows he needs to build his team's confidence after last season and what better way to do it than come out and get an extremely convincing win.

I know this post is kind of all over the place so if there are questions on ND, fire away.
 
Still looking over the games, but you have some great thoughts in here. Card looks solid, GL Fondy :cheers:
 
Updated my week 1 record. Lost a lot of my bigger wagers in week 1. I realized on Saturday night I could bet an even 100 wagers, which seeing I'm a dork I wanted to do. Anyways, it would have been 101 (as I had a push on Oregon under and didn't consider the push as one of the 100), but decided to add more on Tenny 2H and lost that one too... Still a great week winning 66 of my first 99 wagers, before Tenny went final. Finally done bitching about my week, ready to start fresh next week and will be happy with what I took in. Trying to convince myself of that right now at least.

WEEK 2 -- I'm not going to have time to do too many more write-ups. Got a busy school week coming up, so if you want thoughts on a specific game please ask and I'll get to them.
 
Thursday
South Carolina -9.5 at Vanderbilt
Strong Lean on S.C.
Does the absence of RB Mike Davis for SC bother you at all? I do like the fact that Smelley will be the likely starter this week. That offense looked like sh!t before he came in.
 
Hey Fondy, is it just me or the 125 beers I have had today, but doesn't Wake at home giving 8 over Ole Piss look like easy money?

Talk me out of it.:cheers:

Ole Piss controlled the game against Memphis. Thought the paper tigers would do a lot better than they did. Ole Piss limited themselves to four penalties on the game, had a solid punting average and mixed in the run (216 yards) vs. the pass (222 yards) quite well. While picking off two passes, Ole Miss didn't turn the ball over once in the game. If I was backing Ole Miss I'd be worried about crunch time number from Snead as he wonly went 10-22 and wasn't real consistent (more big plays than anything. Ole Miss fg kicker was 5 for 5 in XP's, and hit two field goals from a long of 47. Kick returns for Miss. were nothing spectacular. Ole Miss was also 3-1 in non-conference last year and return 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense (although went 0-8 in conference play). This will be the first game though that Ole Miss goes on the road for and that should be an experience for them. That all said I lean towards Wake Forest at home. Riley Skinner has the experience to take care of the ball and the WF rushing attack should hopefully improve on their yards/carry. I was sorely disappointed to see Josh Adams get out to such a slow start. Skinner, Adams and a WR all put the ball on the ground for a total of 4 fumbles, although they were lucky to recover their own mistakes. A younger offensive line for Wake Forest and the poor overall play of the ACC in week 1 has be holding off of a play for now.
 
Does the absence of RB Mike Davis for SC bother you at all? I do like the fact that Smelley will be the likely starter this week. That offense looked like sh!t before he came in.

When I put my wager in I didn't realize Mike Davis was out. I've been looking around for information and can't find anything that says he's out... Watched so many games this week I don't remember him getting injured, so unless he's had a delayed suspension from him off season issues I was thinking he'd be in there. While I'd still be on SC, I don't think I"d be as large as I think it will play some what of a role in the control of the game. Smiley is going to be the week 2 starter, and I think he's going to put up big numbers. Revenge is also a big factor in my play. After being upset I'm pretty sure SC is going to want to put a hurting on them, also after last weeks slow start, look for a quick start this week.
 
Fondy did you see the ESPN report about the a couple Okie players getting stabbed over the weekend?

They havent released any names yet.
 
Fondy did you see the ESPN report about the a couple Okie players getting stabbed over the weekend?

They havent released any names yet.

No I haven't. Didn't really look at ESPN yesterday evening or today at all. Have classes almost every morning and after the choke job by Tenny in 2H wasn't feeling up to capping more games last night. Should be interesting to see what effect/players were involved.
 
Doesn't sound like anything major...

Two Oklahoma athletes stabbed at Norman club
Two Oklahoma athletes -- a football and basketball player -- were stabbing victims of a brawl at a Norman, Okla., club early Sunday morning following OU's football victory over Tennessee-Chattanooga on Saturday night, according to The Oklahoma Daily, the OU student newspaper.

The Oklahoma Daily identified the football player as backup defensive end Frank Alexander and the basketball player as freshman guard Ray Willis. Alexander was treated at a hospital and released.
 
Doesn't sound like anything major...

Two Oklahoma athletes stabbed at Norman club
Two Oklahoma athletes -- a football and basketball player -- were stabbing victims of a brawl at a Norman, Okla., club early Sunday morning following OU's football victory over Tennessee-Chattanooga on Saturday night, according to The Oklahoma Daily, the OU student newspaper.

The Oklahoma Daily identified the football player as backup defensive end Frank Alexander and the basketball player as freshman guard Ray Willis. Alexander was treated at a hospital and released.

Got it, they didn't release the names this morning when I read about it online.
 
Does the absence of RB Mike Davis for SC bother you at all? I do like the fact that Smelley will be the likely starter this week. That offense looked like sh!t before he came in.

Doing more searches now that I'm out of class, and I still can't find anything except he's a bit more banged than he was before the last game. As far as I know he's still going to be playing. If you can link me to somewhere telling me otherwise I'd appreciate it.
 
wow. post 2 is a nice read.

keep the train steaming down the tracks this week , fondybadger.
 
I'll offer a few comments, fondy.
EMU were favored by 40 lat week in a game they won 52-10 vs one of the worst teams in CFB.
For first time in memory, EMU went into a game knowing they were going to win.
This week it's back to the real world for them.
Whether MSU covers, who knows. Tough loss for them on Saturday.
Michigan looked better than i thought they would on saturday. I felt Utah definitely the better team going in, and they played like it for most of the game. I felt that Utah might have beeen playing against 22 wolves and 6 zebras late in the game, but give credit to UM for making a game of it. I think they come out of week 1 with a can do attitude. Miami O did about what i expected , losing to the SEC bottom team.
GT-BC You're right on.
UConn-Temple an interesting sidelight in case you have forgotten. Last year ESPN showed over and over again a winning Temple touchdown that the officials ruled incomplete. It would have been a huge win for Temple.
Now they get UConn at home looking for retribution. Somehow I think they try too hard, screw up like Temple always does, and UConn remembers last year as well and doesn't want it to happen again. Go Huskies.
Nebraska- I totally agree. I'm not a FAV player, particularly big point FAVs , but this one looks good to me.
ND - i have no idea how good they are.
SDSU - I have no idea how bad they are, but I would not be influenced by their loss to Cal Poly. Spread was barely a TD in that game nad I flly expected CP to win, which they did. They return a lot of starters including good QB.
Duke beat NW last year in Evanston. Duke return a ton of experience, and are much better coached this year.
Their win over JMU was a lot more quality than you may think. JMU on the appy State leveln CFB.
I see a lot of rationale to bet Dook in this game. BTW I bet on NW last week, watched the whole thing, and was not too impressed.
GL Nice thread. :tiphat:
 
Does the absence of RB Mike Davis for SC bother you at all? I do like the fact that Smelley will be the likely starter this week. That offense looked like sh!t before he came in.


he is not missing this game, not sure where you heard that, he is starting at RB
 
I'll offer a few comments, fondy.
EMU were favored by 40 lat week in a game they won 52-10 vs one of the worst teams in CFB.
For first time in memory, EMU went into a game knowing they were going to win.
This week it's back to the real world for them.
Whether MSU covers, who knows. Tough loss for them on Saturday.
Michigan looked better than i thought they would on saturday. I felt Utah definitely the better team going in, and they played like it for most of the game. I felt that Utah might have beeen playing against 22 wolves and 6 zebras late in the game, but give credit to UM for making a game of it. I think they come out of week 1 with a can do attitude. Miami O did about what i expected , losing to the SEC bottom team.
GT-BC You're right on.
UConn-Temple an interesting sidelight in case you have forgotten. Last year ESPN showed over and over again a winning Temple touchdown that the officials ruled incomplete. It would have been a huge win for Temple.
Now they get UConn at home looking for retribution. Somehow I think they try too hard, screw up like Temple always does, and UConn remembers last year as well and doesn't want it to happen again. Go Huskies.
Nebraska- I totally agree. I'm not a FAV player, particularly big point FAVs , but this one looks good to me.
ND - i have no idea how good they are.
SDSU - I have no idea how bad they are, but I would not be influenced by their loss to Cal Poly. Spread was barely a TD in that game nad I flly expected CP to win, which they did. They return a lot of starters including good QB.
Duke beat NW last year in Evanston. Duke return a ton of experience, and are much better coached this year.
Their win over JMU was a lot more quality than you may think. JMU on the appy State leveln CFB.
I see a lot of rationale to bet Dook in this game. BTW I bet on NW last week, watched the whole thing, and was not too impressed.
GL Nice thread. :tiphat:

Some really good stuff here. I may have to reexamine that NW/Duke game. Wasn't that familiar with the JMU of the world, but I'll trust your opinion on them over mine (in a landslide). In terms of SDST, I probably am/was undervaluing Cal Poly, but the stats from that game don't show any reasons to feel good for SDST. Completely forgot about the Temple stuff as well.

I'm swamped w/ work for tomorrow, as Wednesdays are my long class days, and I need to get all my work done for them tomorrow.
 
post #19 was Heffis saying MD was out and I was just asking where that came from.

He is suspended for 1 game this year (UAB) and he is 100% healthy and starting

HAHA, tells you how much I'm paying attention. I thought you quoted something I said.

:hang:

I need to get some work done and quit messing around here.
 
You probably saw my post early, but I think UConn throttles Temple. The motivation is even on both sides.
 
I'm giving thoughts to buying out on Penn State. Found out I'll be gone all morning Saturday as I have a sports law review meeting... 6 fucking hours on a Saturday morning and during the Badger game. Then I just realized with the Yag ass 2 games Monday Night, with my class going until 7, and not getting home until 7:30pm I'm going to miss the entire first half of the Packer game. That sure the fuck isn't happening. I'll take the deduction in attendance grade and be watching that at least.
 
any school related activities should be cancelled due to football/hoops.

when im president im mandating this.

BOL this week fondy on a couple of em
 
Additions

Thursday Night
$200 South Carolina 1H -5.5

Friday Night

$150 Ball State -7

Saturday
$100 Miami(oh)/Michigan Over 40.5
$100 Georgia Tech/Boston College Over 38
$150 Ohio +34
$100 Connecticut -7
$100 Iowa -27
$100 Michigan State -21
$50 Southern Miss +17.5
$100 Syracuse -4.5
 
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