Fondybadger's Week 10 CFB

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
Season Record 271-235-19 -$2030
The roller coaster of a season continues. I was down over $5000 five weeks ago and after taking a few week break I've won a 1/3 of that back each of the last two weeks. My capping in week 9 was god awful though, and I was bailed out on a huge play on MSU. Don't want to go through that stress again this week, but wouldn't mind taking this deficit down more. Some games may have write-ups below. Any thoughts or questions, post them up.

Yeah I'm done for today. Talk about another week of shitty capping.

Week 10 2-7-1 -$1300

 Saturday Wagers
$200 Auburn 1H +3.5
$500 Minnesota 2H -5
$500 Minnesota 2H -4.5 -105 <!-- / icon and title -->
$450 Minnesota -7 -115
$225 Wisky/Mich. St U47.5
 $100 Wisconsin 2H ML +170
 $150 Michigan St. -5.5
$225 Auburn +7 -115
$150 Air Force -7 -115
$140 W. Virginia -3 -115
$100 West Virginia 2H -3 +110
 $100 West Virginia 2H -3 -110
$100 Indiana -2.5 -105
$85 Michigan ML +120
$75 Virginia -1.5
$80 Kansas TT O38.5 -115
$100 Auburn/Ole Miss U41.5

2:00pm
$100 Arkansas +7
$50 Kent +6
$50 Colorado +4
$50 W. Mich -18.5

2:30pm
$500 Notre Dame -5
$225 Fresno State -5

3:00
$150 Missouri -19.5 -105
$100 Alabama -23.5
$50 Hawaii -6

3:30
$300 Georgia +7 -108
$200 Florida TT O32.5 (though line would move other way and I'd have a middle opp)
$150 Florida State +3 -120 (bought half)
$100 California -2.5
$100 Temple TT O19.5
$50 Clemson/Boston Coll. U43
$50 Illinois -2.5

6:30pm
$100 Washington +46
$100 South Carolina -5

7:00
$300 Louisville -13.5 -108
:smiley_acbe:GOOD LUCK:smiley_acbe:
​
 
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$500 Notre Dame -5
I have been a pretty big fan of Notre Dame all season. They cost me some money early, but they have been pretty tough as of late. I think as the season wears on they will get even stronger. Disappointed in myself for not taking Rutgers ML this past week. Pittsburgh is just a train wreck and 'stache needs to be fired.

$300 Georgia +7 -108
My local was offering this at +6.5 +102 and bought half a point. I had intended taking Florida before the lines came out, but I could not pass up the value on this one. Depending on the line movements, see it's down to +5.5 at Greek right now, I may buy some (or all or more) of this back as I look for Florida to win.

Other Wagers
$300 Louisville -13.5 -108
$150 Missouri -19.5 -105
$100 South Florida -3 -105
$100 Indiana -2.5 -105

 
...and a side from just about every other game...



:36_11_6:<!-- / message -->
 
stull just got out of the hospital w/ his concussion, wouldnt youi want to wait to get a better feel on his status before you go big on ND?

GL this week fondy
 
CapTwo said:
stull just got out of the hospital w/ his concussion, wouldnt youi want to wait to get a better feel on his status before you go big on ND?

GL this week fondy
Click to expand...

I have the game capped as if he will play. Think it is a horse a piece though as it may benefit Pitt if he's not in there. More uncertainty. Don't know the backup that well so hard for me to say. Just don't feel there will be much scoring from them regardless and I think Notre Dame really turns things on like they did last week. 30+ point for them, and in the teens or less for Pitt.
 
Fondy the backup for Pitt is Pat Bostick who was a starter the entire year last season after Stull got hurt in the opener. Maybe a drop off but not chopped liver.

Out of your wagers on the board already I lean on all of them except Notre Dame. Like Ville and Mizzou most.

----Taking away the debacle last week I don't see a horrible football team. I think this rates to be a real close game, and I lean Pitt slightly but who knows.

You have to have a big bankroll to bet the number of games you do. Love your style though bro it's the degenerate way

you bet every NBA, MLB, college basketball game too?? Holy shit talk about action. Your addicted. Better than crack
 
o-state,

I begged to differ regarding Bostick...I watched him play all of last year and was never impressed with him...I believe Pitt turned their season around at the end of the year once Stull got healthy...prime example was this weekend when Stull got hurt, Bostick came in and the team was driving in Rutgers territory and he threw a terrible pick (granted his O-line didn't help him out) that ended any hopes of a Pitt comeback...I would need at least 7 points to feel confortable with a Bostick led Pitt team (not to mention Rutgers exposed some serious problems in the Pitt secondary which I feel Notre Dame can also exploit)...
 
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pags, I am sure I haven't watched Pitt as much as you have. If you say Bostick is a major drop off I believe you. :shake:

But experience at least will not be the issue as with most backups...Bostick has some games under his belt.

.....only thing I can say about this Pitt team is let's look at the body of work not point to one game. I'm sure after BG and Buffalo who would of thought they'd beat Iowa and USF. Here are the stats from last week's game for Pitt.
138-71 rush, 348-371 pass, 1-2 TO’s

Now before that game Pitt's pass defense was outstanding. 190 to BG, 123 to USF. The largest output was 223 by Drew Willy. I'm not so sure last week's game wasn't just one of those where the pace of the game lent it to be a high scoring shootout. Rutgers had been horrible passing of late and had been prett good defending the pass as well. Pitt also had never come close to being over 300 before either so I don't think anyone anticipated that type of game.

I am also not going to discount that perhaps the light went on for Rutgers after getting some positive emotion following the UConn win, and Wanny in typical fashion played down to his competition. We always knew if Teel and his receivers got some chemistry they could put numbers up.

I tend to think Pitt is still a solid football team. Is Pitt worse than Michigan State? Stanford? North Carolina? I put them in that class.

I see Pitt now as playing up to their level of competition as they did going on the road to USF. I see them winning the rushing battle in South Bend. If they can keep the pass battle close and get some turnovers I like their chances.
 
O-State said:


I tend to think Pitt is still a solid football team. Is Pitt worse than Michigan State? Stanford? North Carolina? I put them in that class.
Click to expand...

I actually feel that Pittsburgh is a level or two below some of those teams. In terms of quality of play this season I'd put them at a Wisconsin, Auburn, or Arizona State level. The only difference in terms of play is the final results as the teams they have been able to come back on, Syracuse, Buffalo, Iowa, etc have not been that great. Now my biggest concern with this game is that Pittsburgh seems to play better on the road then they do at home. Pittsburgh has struggled historically at Notre Dame (although that isn't saying much). At home this year Notre Dame is 4-0 SU, and have won by an average of 12.5 points a game at home. I can make a ton of excuses for their initial performance against SDST and come up with some random bull for MSU and UNC as well, but none of it is that relevant.
 
This is making my lean towards Michigan State that much stronger... Probably not as much from a production output, but more of a mental or emotional point.

Season over for Beckum

Surgery ends days as UW tight end

By Jeff Potrykus of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: Oct. 26, 2008

Madison - The news that senior tight end Travis Beckum has played his final game for the University of Wisconsin hit teammate and friend DeAndre Levy hard.

"I kind of shook my head and just couldn't really believe it," said the senior linebacker, who learned Beckum's fate Sunday morning from strong safety Jay Valai. "I couldn't fathom or imagine being in his shoes.

"We're here behind him and wish him all the best through it."

Beckum, a prep All-American at Oak Creek High School, will need the support.

UW officials confirmed Sunday that Beckum suffered a broken left fibula in UW's 27-17 victory over Illinois on Saturday and will miss the rest of the season.

Beckum underwent what UW officials termed a successful surgery Saturday night.

"It's very unfortunate whenever anyone's season is ended because of an injury," coach Bret Bielema said in a release. "Our thoughts are with Travis and his family as he begins his recovery.

"I visited him today in the hospital and his spirits are good. I know he will do everything it takes to get back to 100%."

After leading all tight ends in receiving yards (982) and finishing second in receptions (75) as a junior, Beckum turned down an opportunity to enter the 2008 National Football League draft.

He needed to add weight and show pro scouts he could be a better blocker but he was also motivated by UW's disappointing 9-4 finish last season.

"It says a lot about him," Levy said. "He is a great guy, a competitor, who cares about his teammates."

Beckum's senior season was marred before UW's Aug. 30 opener against Akron.


He strained his right hamstring in camp and missed UW's first two games. He made his debut in Week 3 at Fresno State and although he was rusty still caught four passes for 51 yards.

His mental error cost UW a two-point conversion in the two-point loss at Michigan in the Big Ten opener but Beckum appeared to be on a roll heading into the Illinois game. In a three-game stretch after the loss to Michigan, Beckum caught 15 passes for 180 yards.
He had two catches for 16 yards against Illinois, but also had two critical drops, before suffering the injury with 8 minutes 49 seconds left in the third quarter.

Despite missing two full games this season, Beckum is No. 2 on the team in receptions (23) and is No. 3 in receiving yards (264).

His final numbers at UW: 159 receptions for 2,149 yards, both marks No. 3 on the school's all-time list, and 11 touchdowns.

Beckum might be able to join his teammates at practice this week but UW (4-4, 1-4 Big Ten) won't have him on the field, beginning Saturday at Michigan State (7-2, 4-1).

"Obviously when you look at a guy like that, the presence he brings is great and what he presents to our team," free safety Chris Maragos said. "Not just physically on the field but obviously the leader that he is and his big-play mentality.

"Obviously it hurts but we've got to move forward and continue with Michigan State."
 
Fondy - like all the plays with possibly the exception of GA (although you got a great number on it). BOL this week bro!
 
Was a fun time Fondy, i thank you for the advice. The hotel we stayed at Friday night downtown had a WI previous big ten champions banquet for previous players but i did not recognize anyone. All the players stayed at the hotel too. I walked past a meeting room about 10pm and Bielema was standing up in front of a big ass flat screen going through film.

Probably had film going on in all the rooms, each room had 5 state troopers w/ a german shephard standing in front of it. Ended up getting pretty drunk friday night and was woken by the police escort outside my hotel window the next morning when players walk out of hotel to the buses. Figured it was a great opportunity to hang an illinois flag in the window and that backfired.

All in all, great trip. A lot different than Illinois. No big open areas for 10,000 cars to park and tailgate. Noticed a lot of people on our walk to the stadium charging for parking in their front yard, lol. Got up to the stadium and all the frats had halloween costumes on, a majority of them were telletubbies, and i did not understand.

Coolest moment of the trip was watching a 4 story frathouse with a balcony on each level pour 3 beers in a bong at the top for someone to bong at the bottom.

thanks again duder.
 
Fondybadger said:
I have the game capped as if he will play. Think it is a horse a piece though as it may benefit Pitt if he's not in there. More uncertainty. Don't know the backup that well so hard for me to say. Just don't feel there will be much scoring from them regardless and I think Notre Dame really turns things on like they did last week. 30+ point for them, and in the teens or less for Pitt.
Click to expand...

:shake:

Good stuff. It definitely seems like the irish improve w/ each game they play,
they had a great shot to win the UNC game but clausen INT's in the 2nd half killed them.

This pitt defense was exposed last week by TEEL for god sakes, and giving up the big play killed them

14 completions for 361 yards and 6 TD's, lmao

Good luck on ND:cheers:
 
$75 Ohio -2.5
I don't feel that Buffalo's defense will be up for the challenge, and while Buffalo won big at home last year, they have struggled through the years at Ohio.

$100 Houston -7 -112 (bought half point)
Two teams going in opposite directions. Houston is playing for a conference title, and Marshall is just playing not to be embarrassed. Both teams struggle on the defensive side, but I don't feel as if Marshall has the offense to take advantage of mismatches with Houston, while Houston should be able to light up the scoreboard.
 
Thursday Wagers
$350 South Florida -2.5
So admittedly USF has struggled the past two weeks, but they are a much better team than they have looked. Cincy has gotten some decent wins on the season, but I think they are not as good as the record shows. Looks like Anderson will be getting back under center replacing Pike yet again, as his non-throwing arm is "numb." Biggest thing in this game will be USF defense is a bit more solid that Cincy, and as much as we have all been hating on Grothe the last few weeks, he'll be a difference maker tonight. USF 31 Cincy 16
 
USF is solid IMO.

Grothe got picked 4 times in this game LY on some very bad decisions on his part. I remember the game and remember his face walking off the field. I expect him to be very focused tonight.. ZCincy d-backs are over rated IMO..

Lean Pitt but probably take that one off the list with the uncertainty of Stull..

pretty neutral on the rest I think.. GL this week.
 
RambleOn said:
How could you love the -3?
Click to expand...

1. USF has played better in 2H's this season
2. Cincy plays worse in the 2H
3. Cincy had momentum to start the game on the turnover - they won't get that in the 2H.
4. Unlike a lot of you guys from what I've read, I believe in Grothe and his ability to keep his team in the race for the Big East title.
 
12-12:30 starts

Ramble, you could have been more persuasive to get me to buy off of USF Thursday night ;) Hope you won on something on it. Classes this week took a lot out of me and left me exhausted by the time last night rolled around. But I'm ready to go all out today. Should be a good Saturday afternoon.

Early Round
$140 W. Virginia -3 -115
$50 W. Virginia 1H -1
$225 Wisky/Mich. St U47.5
$150 Michigan St. -5.5
$100 Wisky/Mich St. U24 -105
$50 Indiana 1H ML -113$450 Minnesota -7 -115 (bought half)
$200 Minnesota 1H -4
$85 Michigan ML +120
$50 Michigan 1H ML +105
$75 Virginia -1.5
$150 Air Force -7 -115 (bought half)
$75 Air Force 1H -4.5
$80 Kansas TT O38.5 -115
$225 Auburn +7 -115 (bought half)
$200 Auburn 1H +3.5
$100 Auburn/Ole Miss U41.5


 
2-3:30pm

2:00pm
$100 Arkansas +7
$50 Kent +6
$50 Colorado +4
$50 W. Mich -18.5

2:30pm
$225 Fresno State -5

3:00$100 Alabama -23.5
$50 Hawaii -6

3:30
$200 Florida TT O32.5 (though line would move other way and I'd have a middle opp)
$150 Florida State +3 -120 (bought half)
$100 California -2.5
$100 Temple TT O19.5
$50 Clemson/Boston Coll. U43
$50 Illinois -2.5

6:30pm
$100 Washington +46
$100 South Carolina -5



 
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