Fondybadger's Super Bowl XLI

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
2006 NFL Overall 383-350-30 +$1187
Preseason 54-36-3 +$1042
Week One 17-11 +$688
Week Two 19-15 +$240
Week Three 16-16-1 +$364
Week Four 22-26-2 +$153
Week Five 22-23-2 +$756
Week Six 36-21-4 +$1440
Week Seven 18-15-1 +$798
Week Eight 34-45-6 -$2069
Week Nine 25-39-4 -$3624
Week Ten 19-23 +$259
Week Eleven 14-16-1 -$1418
Week Twelve 5-5-1 +$80
Week Thirteen 33-25-5 +$181
Week Fourteen 13-7 +$1203
Week Fifteen 26-16 -$762<o></o>
Week Sixteen 7-2 +$1027<o></o>
Week Seventeen NO PLAYS<o></o>
Wild Card 2-2 +$167<o></o>
Divisional 3-1 +$275
Conference 8-6 +$387

1st Quarter 48-53-10 -$178
ATS 23-18-2 +$54
ML <st1:date year="2002" day="10" month="5">5-11-2</st1:date> -$122
Tot 20-24-6 -$110

First Half 87-87-8 -$750
ATS 55-44-2 +$551
ML 7-12 -$282[FONT=&quot]
Tot 25-31-6 -$1019[FONT=&quot]

Second Half 50-45-3 -$465
[/FONT]ATS 26-36-3 -$2156
ML 3-1 +$501
Tot 21-8 +$1190
[/FONT]
Full Game 198-165-9 +$2580
ATS 131-118-6 -$197
ML 7-8 +$251
Tot 60-39-3 +$2526

Props 52-62 -$645

--------------------------------------------------------

 SUPER BOWL PLAYS
1st Quarter
$50 Bears ML +170 (BetCRIS)
$125 Under 10 -115 (TheGreek)

1st Half
$150 Bears 1H +4 (TheGreek)
$250 Under 24 (TheGreek)

Game Plays
$350 Bears +10.5 -200 (The Greek)
$100 Bears +7 -110 (BetCRIS)
$300 Under 48 (TheGreek)

It took me a pretty long time to decide what I wanted to do for the Super Bowl. I'm betting more on this game than I would if it was a regular season game. Pretty much this spread is a toss up in my opinion. I've done very well in college basketball lately, and I can afford to take some chances and enjoy the BIG GAME with some decent size wagers. Just because I have a larger wager on this particular game doesn't mean that I'm in love with the sides I've taken. LOL, okay I have my disclaimer out of the way. Now with all of that said, I was trying to find plays that have the most value in this game. My initial thoughts were to take Indy ML at -250. I feel that Indy wins this game by 1-7 points. Well I was looking at the numbers at TheGreek, I noticed the Bears +10.5 -200. When it came down to it, I felt there was more value on the Bears +10.5 than the Colts ML, and I was getting it at a better price. I feel that both teams will be a bit nervous early in the game. Chicago will try to make Grossman comfortable and will set up a running game on Indy. I believe that Indy will come out of the game a bit flat and scoring in the first half will be pretty much non-existant. I see a score of 7-6 Indy at halftime. As I was talking to Killa about, I'm pretty sure the scoring will pick up after halftime. Indy will come out of the locker room a bit more focused and jump out to a 17-6 lead before Grossman, yes good old Sexy Rexy, starts playing with a reckless abandon. Where's the pressure on him? Nothing is expected of him. So if he doesn't do well no one would be surprised. Compared to Manning who has the weight of the world on his shoulders. Grossman gets a TD for the Bears late in the 3rd quarter to make the score 17-13. The Bears defense gets the ball back on a three and out, and Chicago moves the ball down the field before stalling and Chicago settles for a FG to make it 17-16. Manning makes a couple of key 3rd down throws, with a solid 7 minute drive that leads to a Colts FG. Colts improve their lead to 20-16 with a shade over 2 minutes left and the game is in Rexy's hands. The question is do the Bears win 23-16 or lose 20-16? Either way I'll take the under and the +7 & +10.5...

:smiley_acbe:
​
 
Good Luck bro.

have to say the fact your paying for basically 200 for 3 points is telling who the books like. You can do basically pay 250 and erase 6.5 or 7 points with Indy.....
 
SportsNut said:
Good Luck bro.

have to say the fact your paying for basically 200 for 3 points is telling who the books like. You can do basically pay 250 and erase 6.5 or 7 points with Indy.....
Click to expand...

I kind of understand what you're saying SN, but I'm looking at it this way:

Original Line is... Colts -7 -110

You're paying $140 for 6 points with Indy ML (-7 to -1) and you're paying $90 for 3.5 points (+7 to +10.5) with the Bears. With Colts you're paying $23.33 per half point you buy. With the Bears you're paying $25.71 per half point you buy. There really isn't that much difference to me there.
 
CHICAGO BEARS TEAM PROPS
$75 Chicago will punt twice before they score +180 (613/614 TheGreek)
This fits into my belief that the game will be low scoring in the opening first half. Both teams will be trying to get a feel of each other and will take things slowly. Love the value.

$20 Over 7 different Bears have a reception +135 (617/618 TheGreek)
Against New Orleans, 5 Bears had a reception and against Seattle 9 Bears had a reception. I think there will be a lot of dump offs early in the game, allowing more players to get into the game plan and have receptions. Just a fun little prop in my opinion that has some value.

PENDING based on discussion
Will Bears Convert a 4th Down -110 *YES* (609/610 TheGreek)
The Bears are 9/13 on the season on going for it on 4th down. Do you think Lovie Smith will be a risk taker in this game? Or will they be chasing late? I think the value is that they'll at least attempt a 4th down play.

Over 120.5 rushing yards by the Bears -175 (619/620 TheGreek)
I like the over 120.5 for the Bears as I expect them to do what they can to keep it on the ground, but the value just isn't there right now. I'll watch the line the rest of the week.

Bears defense will have over 1 sack -220 (643/644 The Greek)
Line is horrible, but the Bears defense had 40 sacks in the regular season, and Manning was sacked 15 times. You'd think you'd get the push here at least.

Total number of different Bears to score - Wager is on how many of teams players will score in game. Any score by a player counts towards wager. FG, TD, Safety etc count as a score. overtime counts towards wgaer. Official stats via NFL.com Max wager $500.
 <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr><td align="center" width="55">631</td> <td width="300">Over 3 players </td> <td width="65"> -170 </td> <td width="200">
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" height="19" width="620"> <tbody><tr><td align="center" width="55">632</td> <td width="300">Under 3 players </td> <td width="65"> +140 </td> <td width="200">
</td></tr></tbody> </table> So a TD would account for a score for the player who got the TD, plus a score for the kicker with the XP. I don't see three different Bears having a TD in this game. I'm assuming that if Grossman has a TD PASS it doesn't count as a score for him and the receiver who caught it. So the question here is do the Bears put up three TD's in this game? Ideally I say Chicago scores 1 or 2 TD's in this game... If they have TD's by two different players I'd get a push. I just don't see them having three or more TD's in the game by multiple players. The value is definately on Under to me... I'm looking at going $150-$200 on this one. Would love some discussion on this.
 
Fondybadger said:
I kind of understand what you're saying SN, but I'm looking at it this way:

Original Line is... Colts -7 -110

You're paying $140 for 6 points with Indy ML (-7 to -1) and you're paying $90 for 3.5 points (+7 to +10.5) with the Bears. With Colts you're paying $23.33 per half point you buy. With the Bears you're paying $25.71 per half point you buy. There really isn't that much difference to me there.
Click to expand...


Maybe I said it wrong. I like the play alot cause the book is placing higher value on these added 3 , 3.5 points for Chi. Personally I believe the action on this game is split. What I basically is getting at is the book sees value in it so he is asking one to pay alot for it.....if there wasnt much value in it you wouldnt have to pay as much

GL
 
On the props ...

That 4th down one is very interesting. Indy showed that in short yardage they had trouble with NE on 4th down. Chi has shown confidence in going for it on 4th down in the playoffs so far. Think I posted in my thread that Indy allowed 11 of 14 in reg season on fourth and 3 of 4 in the playoffs.

So at even money its hard to not really like this one. If the situation arises I think Lovie goes for a 4th and 1.

For the rushing yards I think the vig is high cause thats a real low yardage #...I would have expected like 140

186 , 135 NYJ , 227 , 148 , 117 (only 31c 114yds by RBs) , 219 , 375 , 191 , 83 @ Balt only 19 attempts...

So its hard to imagine that CHI doesnt run it 35 times...

The last one I would be careful with. They wouldnt make that such a high price ifthey didnt feel it had value. The 7 pt underdog with that high of a price? It seems unlikely on the surface that more then 3 guys score. However I find it hard to believe that 3 do NOT score. To me thats worst case scenario. I would be suprised if they did not have at least 2TDs. Especially in a Super Bowl game where the losing team will always try and score no matter what the outcome of the game is doing...

Hard to believe thats one worth playing either way....BOL
 
good health i would lean over though....chi safeties will get smoked atleast 3 times you would think and colts will give up some early points IMO. hopefully we can both turn in some profit though i'm on colts-6 for a double play
 
<o></o><o></o><o></o>
 SUPER BOWL PLAYS
1st Quarter
$50 Bears ML +170 (BetCRIS)
$125 Under 10 -115 (TheGreek)

1st Half
$150 Bears 1H +4 (TheGreek)
$250 Under 24 (TheGreek)

Game Plays
$350 Bears +10.5 -200 (The Greek)
$100 Bears +7 -110 (BetCRIS)
$300 Under 48 (TheGreek)



:smiley_acbe:
​
[/quote]

I see that +10.5 is now down to -185 @ The Greek
 
Scoring Prop
$10 No TD Scored in Game +10,000 (TheGreek 2069)
$100 No Special Teams TD in game -200 (TheGreek 2385)

Player Props
$50 Cedric Benson OVER 48.5 yards rushing -130 (TheGreek 1351/1352)
$50 Cedric Benson OVER 13.5 rushing attempts +110 (TheGreek 1361/1362)
$20 Cedric Benson Over 4.5 receiving yards +100 (TheGreek 1363/1364)
$40 Dominic Rhodes under 50.5 yards rushing -145
$40 Dominic Rhodes longest rush under 15.5 yards -135

I'll have more late night/early morning tomorrow....
 
Coppsguy said:
Ok someone has clearly had to much to drink on Saturday night. GL on all yer SB plays Fond :cheers:
Click to expand...

The way I feel this morning, I definately had way too much to drink. I walked home last night. It's a good thing I didn't freeze to death. Woke up about an hour ago, my weather bug thing showed -10 degrees, with a 17 MPH wind so it felt like -30... eek
 
I agree things start kinda flat, but I would not be surprised to see the Colts hit something deep in the first half and maybe even start getting into the groove of things in the second quarter. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Colts drive down and score right before halftime.. the question would be how much points they would have before that...

either way, the Bears can still be the side to go with, but I wouldn't risk so much to get the 10.5... if the Colts are going to cover the 7, then odds are they will end up covering the 10.5 too.. well.. either way... this should be a fun game to watch... gl bud.
 
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TEAM PROPS
$50 Colts +0.5 points 2H will score more points -110 (TheGreek 454)
I see the first half as a very low scoring yawner...

$50 Colts will punt before they score -130 (TheGreek 464)
I don't see a long drive to start the game, nor do I see a pick 6 or something...

$100 Over, 7 different Colts will have a reception (TheGreek 467) +120
In two of the three playoff games the Colts had 9 guys with a reception. In the game against Baltimore they had 5.

$50 First Colts score of the game will be a FG +160 (TheGreek)
Once again, a slow paced start to the game.

$40 Yes game will be tied at some point after first score +125 (TheGreek 217)

Player Props
$20 Manning over 267.5 passing yards -125
$75 No Manning will not throw an interception +160
$100 Marvin Harrison under 5.5 pass receptions +100
$50 Reggie Wayne under 5.5 pass receptions -140
$20 Muhsin Muhammad under 4 pass receptions -185
$10 Bernard Berrian over 4.5 pass receptions -138
$10 Aaron Moorhead under 2 pass receptions -200
$100 Over 1 rushing attempt by Rex Grossman +100
 
$382 Over 3 Colt players have a rushing attempt -165
Empty'd the rest of my Greek account on this prop. Personally I see it as a "free bet." Here's why... We all know that Rhodes and Addai will get carries in this game. That's two players. Manning has a rushing attempt in every game this season, except in week 1. In week 2, there was four players with rushing attempts (Cartheon - no long on team). Week 3 through the playoffs, Rhodes, Addai, and Manning have had rushing attempts. So the odds of this winning are not very good, but the odds of it losing are even worse imo. The value is definately there as I'm EXTREMELY confident that there will be at least 3 guys that will have rushing attempts. So what needs to happen to have a 4th guy get a carry? End around to Wayne or another WR, botched snap on a kick, DeDe Dorsey gets some love, Sorgi taking a knee to end the game, etc...
 
Before I get called out on it, I'm not 100% sure if taking a knee goes into the box score as a rush. I think it does though.
 
<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr width="40%" height=18>Rushing</TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Indianapolis</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Rush</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Avg</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Lng</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>FumL </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> D. Rhodes</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>113</TD><TD>5.4</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> J. Addai</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>77</TD><TD>4.1</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> D. Clark</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> P. Manning</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

thats yahoo.com
 
RECAP

GAME PLAYS 3-4 -687
W $50 Bears ML +170 (BetCRIS)
L $125 Under 10 -115 (TheGreek)
W $150 Bears 1H +4 (TheGreek)
L $250 Under 24 (TheGreek)
L $350 Bears +10.5 -200 (The Greek)
L $100 Bears +7 -110 (BetCRIS)
W $300 Under 48 (TheGreek)

PROPS 6-16-1 -$365
L $75 Chicago will punt twice before they score +180
L $10 No TD Scored in Game +10,000
L $20 Over 7 different Bears have a reception +135
L $50 Cedric Benson OVER 13.5 rushing attempts +110
L $20 Cedric Benson Over 4.5 receiving yards +100
L $50 First Colts score of the game will be a FG +160
L $40 Yes game will be tied at some point after first score +125
L $75 No Manning will not throw an interception +160
L $100 No Special Teams TD in game -200
L $50 Cedric Benson OVER 48.5 yards rushing -130
L $40 Dominic Rhodes under 50.5 yards rushing -145
L $40 Dominic Rhodes longest rush under 15.5 yards -135
L $50 Colts +0.5 points 2H will score more points -110
L $50 Colts will punt before they score -130
L $20 Manning over 267.5 passing yards -125
L $10 Bernard Berrian over 4.5 pass receptions -138
PUSH $100 Over, 7 different Colts will have a reception +120
W $100 Marvin Harrison under 5.5 pass receptions +100
W $50 Reggie Wayne under 5.5 pass receptions -140
W $20 Muhsin Muhammad under 4 pass receptions -185
W $10 Aaron Moorhead under 2 pass receptions -200
W $100 Over 1 rushing attempt by Rex Grossman +100
W $231 Over 3 Colt players have a rushing attempt -165 (posted that wrong)
 
Did pretty good on those props huh? LOL... Didn't do as bad as I thought I did sitting at the bar. Just need a good college Monday.
 
tough mooses.. on the cults will punt before they score and on benson..
 
abcs said:
tough mooses.. on the cults will punt before they score and on benson..
Click to expand...

Yep and the game will be tied at some point after the first score... should have been 7-7 (although that got me a bigger win with # of rushers)... Opening kickoff lost me 3 props too... haha
 
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