Florida vs. Ole Miss: NCAAF Week 4 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field in Oxford, Mississippi
New-Look Ole Miss: Offense
With a new head coach in Lane Kiffin and a new offensive coordinator in Jeff Lebby, Ole Miss’ offense will look different this year.
Last year, Ole Miss owned the 14th-highest run percentage thanks to a run-heavy scheme concocted by its now former offensive coordinator, Rich Rodriguez.
By all accounts, this year’s offense will be extremely fast-paced and more focused on the pass.
To say „more focused on the pass“ may create a misleading impression. But it really isn’t saying much given how strongly Ole Miss was inclined to run last year.
Still, Matt Corral seems more suited to run this new offense since he has the passing ability that last year’s starter, John Rhys Plumlee, lacks.
Practice and scrimmage reports also indicate that Corral holds the competitive edge that derives from performing more strongly and from remaining healthier than Plumlee.
While a starter hasn’t been officially announced, I think it’s safe to handicap this game under the assumption that Corral starts.
Plus, Plumlee starting would reflect a decision that would be perplexing and unwise especially in this new offense given his lack of pass efficiency — last year, he completed 52.7 percent of his passes.
Although, Lebby has a positive history with running quarterbacks and running backs. Plumlee will probably find a role in the offense somewhere even if it’s a much smaller role, as it probably will be.
Ole Miss Pass Attack vs. Florida Pass Defense
Florida’s coverage ability remains strong. After ranking 36th nationally in opposing passing yards per game, the Gators return significant experience in the secondary.
They return three senior safeties, each of whom played in at least 10 games last season.
At cornerback, former All-SEC Freshman team member Marco Wilson returns.
Plenty of depth exists alongside him.
Kaiir Elam is one big factor at cornerback. Metrics indicate that he was Florida’s most valuable player last season.
Once the nation’s sixth-ranked cornerback coming out of high school, he has great length at 6-2. His build is conspicuously strong and he uses it to play physically.
His build makes him well-suited for a press style of coverage as he uses his hands and other tools to maintain leverage at the point of attack.
Elam also displays positive play-reaction skills when hanging back in off coverage.
As a freshman last season, his receiver was rarely targeted and, when he was targeted, he allowed a 43.5 completion percentage and an 18.3 passer rating.
These details about Elam and Florida’s continuing depth and quality in its secondary are crucial to note because Ole Miss will rely heavily on Elijah Moore.
Moore led all Rebel receivers last year with 67 catches. Seven teammates of his combined for all of 55 catches. Whereas he accrued 850 receiving yards, no other Rebel accrued even 200 receiving yards.
Discounting garbage-time numbers in a blowout loss to LSU, Moore never showed up against bigger-named corners like those of Auburn and Alabama.
Moore will likewise remain quiet against Florida’s even if Corral becomes a passer who can complete 60-percent of his pass attempts.
When the Gators accrue a lead and force Ole Miss to pass more often, their secondary will not allow the Rebels to come back.
Ole Miss Rush Attack vs. Florida Run Defense
Florida’s run defense promises to remain solid after ranking eighth nationally last year.
While it does lose a few big names, some of those spent time being limited or unable to play due to injury, anyways.
Plus, the Gators still return five of six defensive tackles, three of four on the outside and get help from former five-star Georgia Bulldog Brenton Cox, and are likewise filled with experience and ability with six returning linebackers.
With this returning group of guys, the Gator run defense is not something that Ole Miss’ running backs can exploit. They are also hurt by their starting center’s decision to opt-out.
New-Look Ole Miss Defense
Signing two new co-defensive coordinators — D.J. Durkin and Chris Partridge — hurts the progress that the Rebel defense made towards the end of last season.
The Rebels will also endure a learning curve with a new scheme. For example, they’ll have to adjust to a 4-3 defense after playing in a 3-4 defense last season.
Florida Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Quarterback Kyle Trask returns to Florida as the SEC’s leading returning passer.
Trask distinguishes himself from Corral therefore in several performance-related respects. He completed, for example, over seven percent more of his pass attempts.
Fundamentally, Trask distinguishes himself from his Rebel counterpart because he is already familiar with Dan Mullen’s offense. Continuity is important especially in season openers.
Go to 3:48 in the following video:
You see evidence for Trask’s comfort in Florida’s offense. He uses eye manipulation to control LSU defensive backs, uses strong footwork, anticipation, and accuracy to deliver an on-target pass to star tight end Kyle Pitts, who beats a cornerback on this play.
Anybody who cites Florida’s relatively low returning production at wide receiver is being deceptive because Trask had so many different targets to throw to.
Trask still has many comfortable targets — UF’s fourth-leading receiver in Trevon Grimes returns in addition to Pitts. Electric playmaker Kadarius Toney is back as is Jacob Copeland
They promise to thrive against a Rebel secondary that returns three starters from last year’s SEC-worst pass defense. They ranked by far the worst in terms of opposing passing yards per game.
In addition to adjusting to a new scheme, Rebel defensive backs will be hurt by Ole Miss’ regressed pass rush that comes from losing so much depth — five players -- at defensive line.
The Verdict
Continuity is key and Ole Miss has decisively less of it with a new offensive and defensive scheme.
On offense, Trask will build off of pre-existing chemistry with a bevy of pass-catchers. Defensively, Florida will shut down Ole Miss’ pass attack largely thanks to Elam’s ability to suffocate Moore.
Meanwhile, its front seven and the team’s growing lead will prevent Ole Miss from establishing their run game.
Best Bet: Gators -13.5 (-105) with Heritage
Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field in Oxford, Mississippi
New-Look Ole Miss: Offense
With a new head coach in Lane Kiffin and a new offensive coordinator in Jeff Lebby, Ole Miss’ offense will look different this year.
Last year, Ole Miss owned the 14th-highest run percentage thanks to a run-heavy scheme concocted by its now former offensive coordinator, Rich Rodriguez.
By all accounts, this year’s offense will be extremely fast-paced and more focused on the pass.
To say „more focused on the pass“ may create a misleading impression. But it really isn’t saying much given how strongly Ole Miss was inclined to run last year.
Still, Matt Corral seems more suited to run this new offense since he has the passing ability that last year’s starter, John Rhys Plumlee, lacks.
Practice and scrimmage reports also indicate that Corral holds the competitive edge that derives from performing more strongly and from remaining healthier than Plumlee.
While a starter hasn’t been officially announced, I think it’s safe to handicap this game under the assumption that Corral starts.
Plus, Plumlee starting would reflect a decision that would be perplexing and unwise especially in this new offense given his lack of pass efficiency — last year, he completed 52.7 percent of his passes.
Although, Lebby has a positive history with running quarterbacks and running backs. Plumlee will probably find a role in the offense somewhere even if it’s a much smaller role, as it probably will be.
Ole Miss Pass Attack vs. Florida Pass Defense
Florida’s coverage ability remains strong. After ranking 36th nationally in opposing passing yards per game, the Gators return significant experience in the secondary.
They return three senior safeties, each of whom played in at least 10 games last season.
At cornerback, former All-SEC Freshman team member Marco Wilson returns.
Plenty of depth exists alongside him.
Kaiir Elam is one big factor at cornerback. Metrics indicate that he was Florida’s most valuable player last season.
Once the nation’s sixth-ranked cornerback coming out of high school, he has great length at 6-2. His build is conspicuously strong and he uses it to play physically.
His build makes him well-suited for a press style of coverage as he uses his hands and other tools to maintain leverage at the point of attack.
Elam also displays positive play-reaction skills when hanging back in off coverage.
As a freshman last season, his receiver was rarely targeted and, when he was targeted, he allowed a 43.5 completion percentage and an 18.3 passer rating.
These details about Elam and Florida’s continuing depth and quality in its secondary are crucial to note because Ole Miss will rely heavily on Elijah Moore.
Moore led all Rebel receivers last year with 67 catches. Seven teammates of his combined for all of 55 catches. Whereas he accrued 850 receiving yards, no other Rebel accrued even 200 receiving yards.
Discounting garbage-time numbers in a blowout loss to LSU, Moore never showed up against bigger-named corners like those of Auburn and Alabama.
Moore will likewise remain quiet against Florida’s even if Corral becomes a passer who can complete 60-percent of his pass attempts.
When the Gators accrue a lead and force Ole Miss to pass more often, their secondary will not allow the Rebels to come back.
Ole Miss Rush Attack vs. Florida Run Defense
Florida’s run defense promises to remain solid after ranking eighth nationally last year.
While it does lose a few big names, some of those spent time being limited or unable to play due to injury, anyways.
Plus, the Gators still return five of six defensive tackles, three of four on the outside and get help from former five-star Georgia Bulldog Brenton Cox, and are likewise filled with experience and ability with six returning linebackers.
With this returning group of guys, the Gator run defense is not something that Ole Miss’ running backs can exploit. They are also hurt by their starting center’s decision to opt-out.
New-Look Ole Miss Defense
Signing two new co-defensive coordinators — D.J. Durkin and Chris Partridge — hurts the progress that the Rebel defense made towards the end of last season.
The Rebels will also endure a learning curve with a new scheme. For example, they’ll have to adjust to a 4-3 defense after playing in a 3-4 defense last season.
Florida Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Quarterback Kyle Trask returns to Florida as the SEC’s leading returning passer.
Trask distinguishes himself from Corral therefore in several performance-related respects. He completed, for example, over seven percent more of his pass attempts.
Fundamentally, Trask distinguishes himself from his Rebel counterpart because he is already familiar with Dan Mullen’s offense. Continuity is important especially in season openers.
Go to 3:48 in the following video:
You see evidence for Trask’s comfort in Florida’s offense. He uses eye manipulation to control LSU defensive backs, uses strong footwork, anticipation, and accuracy to deliver an on-target pass to star tight end Kyle Pitts, who beats a cornerback on this play.
Anybody who cites Florida’s relatively low returning production at wide receiver is being deceptive because Trask had so many different targets to throw to.
Trask still has many comfortable targets — UF’s fourth-leading receiver in Trevon Grimes returns in addition to Pitts. Electric playmaker Kadarius Toney is back as is Jacob Copeland
They promise to thrive against a Rebel secondary that returns three starters from last year’s SEC-worst pass defense. They ranked by far the worst in terms of opposing passing yards per game.
In addition to adjusting to a new scheme, Rebel defensive backs will be hurt by Ole Miss’ regressed pass rush that comes from losing so much depth — five players -- at defensive line.
The Verdict
Continuity is key and Ole Miss has decisively less of it with a new offensive and defensive scheme.
On offense, Trask will build off of pre-existing chemistry with a bevy of pass-catchers. Defensively, Florida will shut down Ole Miss’ pass attack largely thanks to Elam’s ability to suffocate Moore.
Meanwhile, its front seven and the team’s growing lead will prevent Ole Miss from establishing their run game.
Best Bet: Gators -13.5 (-105) with Heritage
