Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
The road to the Kentucky Derby is as wide open as it has been in a long time, and the Florida Derby is as wide open a derby prep we've seen in a while as well. I'll start with the big race of the day.
#1 Hidden Scroll, freaked in his debut over the sloppy Pegasus Day dirt which led to him being the favorite in the Fountain of Youth (FOY). With Joel Rosario on board he got caught up in a crazy speed duel with long shot Gladiator King, going on open 1/2 mile in a blistering 45.4 seconds. Hidden Scroll managed to hold on the 4th place finishing 3 lengths behind Code of Honor. Gladiator King just came back and won the 7F Swale stakes here last weekend, so he wasn't cheap speed. Trainer Bill Mott has been working to get Hidden Scroll to rate behind horses and if he can settle down a little bit early in the race should be a factor late.
#2 Current has been campaigned mostly on the turf by Pletcher but being out of Curlin by a Storm Cat mare the surface shouldn't be an issue, appears would need to have a complete pace meltdown to be any sort of factor.
#3 Harvey Wallbanger won his last start in the Holy Bull at 30-1 taking advantage of a fast early pace and a ground saving, rail skimming ride by Brian Hernandez. Don't know if he gets as good a setup for this one but the pace should be there and think he has a legit shot to at least hit the board at about 15-1 or so.
#4 Bourbon War ran second in the FOY coming from the back of the pack and taking advantage of that wicked fast early pace, seems to be a bit of a wise guy horse in this spot and I expect him to take some money, will get some pace to run at here again and has to be considered a contender.
#5 Everfast couldn't follow up his second in the Holy Bull with any type of effort in the FOY. Probably a nice allowance horse but I think in too deep here.
#6 Hard Bell stretch out sprinter might be a pace player early but otherwise is a complete toss.
#7 Maximum Security is the wild card here. Started career in a 16K maiden claiming which he won and then has comeback in 2 optional claiming 50K sprints including an eye popping 18.5 length victory in his last. Everything the Servis barn has sent out this meet has to be considered as he is winning at a ridiculous 45% clip. Stretching out to 2 turns for the first time and expected to be sent along early and this this time he won't be cruising with cheap horses, but he does figure to make sure there is a good early pace in this one, I'll pass here and hope he doesn't beat me somehow.
#8 Bodexpress has yet to break his maiden or try 2 turns, toss.
#9 Code of Honor, winner of the FOY, taking advantage of the fast early pace and getting first run on the deeper closers Bourbon War and Vekoma, hasn't missed a beat in training since that race and figures to be a major contender for Shug in following the same path to the Derby as Orb.
#10 Union's Destiny was hung real wide in the FOY and was never a factor. Draws another outside post here and appears to be in over his head.
#11 Garter and Tie raced well in some restricted 2yo races last fall but probably in over his head in this spot and gate position.
I'm a little biased here as I am a big Bill Mott fan and will be rooting for Hidden Scroll, who I also think is the most talented horse in the field, but will have to be able to rate some and not get caught up with a fast early pace with Maximum Security and Hard Belle, if Javier can get him to relax early in the race I think he wins. If he does get involved early will probably be looking at another 3-5 type finish. I will also use the closing types Harvey Wallbanger, Code of Honor and a little of Bourbon War and Current.
#1 Hidden Scroll, freaked in his debut over the sloppy Pegasus Day dirt which led to him being the favorite in the Fountain of Youth (FOY). With Joel Rosario on board he got caught up in a crazy speed duel with long shot Gladiator King, going on open 1/2 mile in a blistering 45.4 seconds. Hidden Scroll managed to hold on the 4th place finishing 3 lengths behind Code of Honor. Gladiator King just came back and won the 7F Swale stakes here last weekend, so he wasn't cheap speed. Trainer Bill Mott has been working to get Hidden Scroll to rate behind horses and if he can settle down a little bit early in the race should be a factor late.
#2 Current has been campaigned mostly on the turf by Pletcher but being out of Curlin by a Storm Cat mare the surface shouldn't be an issue, appears would need to have a complete pace meltdown to be any sort of factor.
#3 Harvey Wallbanger won his last start in the Holy Bull at 30-1 taking advantage of a fast early pace and a ground saving, rail skimming ride by Brian Hernandez. Don't know if he gets as good a setup for this one but the pace should be there and think he has a legit shot to at least hit the board at about 15-1 or so.
#4 Bourbon War ran second in the FOY coming from the back of the pack and taking advantage of that wicked fast early pace, seems to be a bit of a wise guy horse in this spot and I expect him to take some money, will get some pace to run at here again and has to be considered a contender.
#5 Everfast couldn't follow up his second in the Holy Bull with any type of effort in the FOY. Probably a nice allowance horse but I think in too deep here.
#6 Hard Bell stretch out sprinter might be a pace player early but otherwise is a complete toss.
#7 Maximum Security is the wild card here. Started career in a 16K maiden claiming which he won and then has comeback in 2 optional claiming 50K sprints including an eye popping 18.5 length victory in his last. Everything the Servis barn has sent out this meet has to be considered as he is winning at a ridiculous 45% clip. Stretching out to 2 turns for the first time and expected to be sent along early and this this time he won't be cruising with cheap horses, but he does figure to make sure there is a good early pace in this one, I'll pass here and hope he doesn't beat me somehow.
#8 Bodexpress has yet to break his maiden or try 2 turns, toss.
#9 Code of Honor, winner of the FOY, taking advantage of the fast early pace and getting first run on the deeper closers Bourbon War and Vekoma, hasn't missed a beat in training since that race and figures to be a major contender for Shug in following the same path to the Derby as Orb.
#10 Union's Destiny was hung real wide in the FOY and was never a factor. Draws another outside post here and appears to be in over his head.
#11 Garter and Tie raced well in some restricted 2yo races last fall but probably in over his head in this spot and gate position.
I'm a little biased here as I am a big Bill Mott fan and will be rooting for Hidden Scroll, who I also think is the most talented horse in the field, but will have to be able to rate some and not get caught up with a fast early pace with Maximum Security and Hard Belle, if Javier can get him to relax early in the race I think he wins. If he does get involved early will probably be looking at another 3-5 type finish. I will also use the closing types Harvey Wallbanger, Code of Honor and a little of Bourbon War and Current.
Last edited:
