first quarter play

[tuck321]

Suns plus .5 first quarter.
Suns have won 6 straight on the road first quarter.Their last road first quarter loss was at GS sans Shag.
Last game vs Detroit at home they lost 27-16 which they remember. They lost the game by 30 points which both they and Detroit remember.
Last 2 visits to Detroit their first quarter result was 29-22 wins.
Detroit is a strong first quarter team but they pick their spots carefully. Recently Spurs, NO, and Nug came visiting. In the first quarter Spurs won 26-20 then lost the game. NO won first quarter 26-21 then lost game. Denver a team Detroit and I have little respect for was beaten 25-34 and then lost the game. Think with a vintage Shaq now in their lineup Detroit definitely respects the Suns. Think this game goes by the same format as NO and Spurs to start.
These situations where road or home team gets crushed by a roughly equal team and then faces them again usually the first quarter win rate is very strong. See Toronto winning the first quarter 35-23 and then losing the game yesterday as one example. To me personally these are the best kind of first quarter bets. No one really knows who wins this game but a definite first quarter edge is present. ML is also acceptable. GL

 

[SportsNut]

Any sort of thought given to the fact DET played last night possibly giving them an edge early? Basically does a team in a B2B (but at home) have any sort of edge? Wondering aloud ...if its something you considered or have any stats on ?? Good stuff..

 

[tuck321]

Too much variance from team to team. One value bet that I have posted here is to go against Cleveland on the road b-b in the first quarter which is very strong. Since the first time I mentioned it here the play has gone 4-1 and the 1 loss was due to an almost total first quarter no show by Orlando not any real effort by Cleveland.
If you study each team you can usually find the right play but it requires constant study.

 

[tuck321]

Another example of a problem to be studied is Denver at Grizz. i believe Denver is 4-8 away b-b in the first quarter and wins at Dallas and Bucks were after losses. Last 2 at Griz they have lost the first quarter and this is not only 5 in 7 but 12 games in a row without 2 days off. Probably must play Grizz first quarter or first half but no firm decision yet.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Tuck. Like I said just wondering. I dont mind doing the research or studying its a matter of time. Looking at the NBA, CBB postseasons and now MLB leaves little time to explore...I did find a nice gem with Wash 1st Q last evening though...

 

[SportsNut]

Another example of a problem to be studied is Denver at Grizz. i believe Denver is 4-8 away b-b in the first quarter and wins at Dallas and Bucks were after losses. Last 2 at Griz they have lost the first quarter and this is not only 5 in 7 but 12 games in a row without 2 days off. Probably must play Grizz first quarter or first half but no firm decision yet.

With memphis playing better ( starting real fast as well with great 1st Hs)and as you mentioned Den playing 5th in 7 in different cities the Grizz stuck out to me yesterday as well. Only minor concern is DEN yesterday showing they want to win badly but they can still win and not cover 7 or 8...:cheers:

 

[EHS49]

good info tuck. not sure i would take grizz 1st quarter or half. this is still the grizz. might think that denver carries momentum into first quarter. how does the grizz defend all the offensive weapons on denver? both teams don't play any d. might bite on suns 1st quarter. my leans so far are new jersey first half -3 and phoenix ML.

 

[EHS49]

i also lean over sacramento/houston 196 for some reason. any opinions appreciated.

 

[tuck321]

Grizz game is difficult. 3 favorable home dog referees argue for a game bet not a first quarter or first half play. No early decision there. GL

 

[STEED]

gl tuck

 

[Go play Intramurals]

gl tuck

 

[tuck321]

You have Brothers and Richardson 2 very strong under referees in that game Kings line up next game with Grizz in what is likely to be a high scoring game. Houston is coming off highest scoring game of the season. Great uncertainty as to who plays. Kings just breaking out of a 5 game under streak points to another over. Too much moving around there for me to make a call. Maybe BC will post something on the over 230 games the game after thread. GL

 

[Terpman92]

Here's my wager: http//www.betjoint.com/alpendingwagersasp

 

[tuck321]

Numbers are too good. I split 1 unit on the Grizz. 10% first quarter plus 2.5. 10% first quarter ml plus 58 cents. 20% first half plus 4 and 60% Griz plus 8. Was not planing to introduce this play as most of you are in the stick with playoff teams mode but the real variation in my expectations on this game and current odds forces a play by me and the topic came up by accident originally. GL

 

[SportsNut]

Got one for ya.....

Boston 1st quarter -3 -120
Philly 4th quarter +1.5
Philly 2nd H

Why?

Boston has two tough games after this PHO and NO at home. They are coming home after a solid trip and have done this twice this year vs Houston and Cle laying similar full game spreads. Both games they won the 1st quarter by about 10 points and both games they lost the 4th quarters ...

With a 3-0 edge vs Philly and two tough games upcoming I dont see much 4th quarter interest from Boston if they are trailing or have say a 10-12 pt lead. I have noticed many teams taper off in the 2nd Halves when returning home from 4 or 5 + game trips probably the emotion of returninghome wares off after intermission.

Philly last 2 away trailed by DDS after 1 Q and won the 4th quartes by 10 and 20 points....

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Got one for ya.....

Boston 1st quarter -3 -120
Philly 4th quarter +1.5
Philly 2nd H

Why?

Boston has two tough games after this PHO and NO at home. They are coming home after a solid trip and have done this twice this year vs Houston and Cle laying similar full game spreads. Both games they won the 1st quarter by about 10 points and both games they lost the 4th quarters ...

With a 3-0 edge vs Philly and two tough games upcoming I dont see much 4th quarter interest from Boston if they are trailing or have say a 10-12 pt lead. I have noticed many teams taper off in the 2nd Halves when returning home from 4 or 5 + game trips probably the emotion of returninghome wares off after intermission.

Philly last 2 away trailed by DDS after 1 Q and won the 4th quartes by 10 and 20 points....

:cheers:

I absolutely crushed this game and got crushed on the rest of the NBA card thanks to 2nd H collapses and few uniformed late bets.....Maybe get a comeback by PORTor LAL...

:cheers:

 

[HereWeGo]

Great call on the Boston game Nut

 

[tuck321]

Total brain dead day. Even posted this wrong. The first quarter line was plus 1 not plus.5 and cost 10 cents at the greek and 15 at 5 dimes so that was a push. I won almost as much because of the plus money with the ml first quarter bet as I lost on the game bet for a tiny loss. Won my only posted nhl pick for a moderate winning day. Meanwhile a lot of good bets were left on the table.
I think Boston has figured out that Detroit has played them for a sucker and would be very reluctant to lay with them the rest of the regular season. Hopefully I will be a little more awake tomorrow.