Final Week Thoughts and Discussion

[SportsNut]

4 SHUTOUTS being pitched at the moment ...WOW!

 

[SportsNut]

Bumped the Eagles ML to Level 3 with the last half at -130 so -126 avg price and bumped over 46 ARIZONA to Level 2 but paid -120 to get it there...

Parlayed 1 Unit MLs
Eagles -130 and Jets-140

Added more to Jets but ML -140 {Level2}

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Chopped off some more of the SF ML play ...and choking on more Skins +3.5 -140 Level 1 so just a small play on SF ML and a big middle ...

Over 37 -120 Ravens {Level2}

1st Q Under 7.5 -130 {Level1}
1st H Under Philly 21-120{Level2}
1st H Under Miami 21+100 {Level2}
1st Q Under Miami 7.5 -130 {Level1}

Teaser :
SD +3 , Philly +8.5 , Jets +7.5 {Level2}

Think thats all ...GL:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

My headache today :

1PM Sides:

Bengals ML -135 {Level2}
Rams +14.5 -115 {Level2}
Titans -2.5 -120 {Level3} (-3)
Titans ML -143avg{Level3} (-3.58)
Pats +7-120 & +6-120 {level3 split bewteen two Level2 plays} (-3)
Browns +11.5 {Level1}
Panthers ML -123avg {Level3}
Vikings -6.5 -120 middled Giants +7.5 -120 {Level1} VIGGED
Texans -2.5 -110{Level3}
Texans ML -145 {Level2}
TB -10-130 {Level1}
Net Gain / Loss : Wins +8.75 Losses-10.88
-2.13


4 PM
SF ML -135 {Level3}Middled with SKins +3.5 -140 Level2 and Level1 plays
Seattle +7.5 -120 {Level2}
Jags +11.5 -120 {Level2}
Jets -2.5 -115 {Level3}
Jets ML -140 {Level2}
Eagles -126 ML {level3}
Net Gain/Loss :Wins +6.75 Losses-7.63
-0.88

1st Quarter / 1st Half or any Quarter's (assume Level 1 unless noted)
1st H Bills +3.5 -120{Level2}
1st Q TB -3 +100
1st Q Det +3 -105{Level2}
1st H Det +7 -105 {Level2} PUSH
2nd Q Det +4.5 -120
3rd Q Vikes -0.5 +100
4th Q Rams +3
4th Q Titans -0.5 +135
4th Q Jags +3 -120
2nd Q Pitt -4.5 -105
4th Q NE -0.5 +100
1st Q Zona -0.5 -120
1st Q SF -0.5 +135
1st Q Under Philly 7.5 -130
1st H Under Philly 21-120 {Level2}
1st H Under Miami 21+100 {Level2}
1st Q Under Miami 7.5 -130
Net Profit/ Loss : Wins +5.43 Losses -6.18
-0.75


Totals :
Under 45-120 Rams {Level1}
Under 40 -120 Colts {Level1}
Over 46 Texans {Level1}
4 PM
Over 46-115 Cards {Level2}
Under 41.5 -120 Dallas {Level2}
Over 37 -120 Jags {Level2}
Net Profit/Loss : Win +2.25 Loss -3.60
-1.35


3 Team Parlay :
Tenny ML -140 , Houston -2.5 -120 and Carolina ML -125 {Level 2}
Net Profit/Loss : Win 0 Loss -1.25

Team Totals : -115 @ level 1
GB Over 27
NYG Over 17
STL Over 14-120
Jags Over 13
Net Profit / Gain : Win +1.50 Loss -0.57
+0.93

Teasers :
Vikings -1 and Zona -1 {Level3}
Pitt -1 , TB -1 and GB -1 {Level3}
SD +1 , Cal PK , Under 61 Cal {Level2} from CFB thread yesterday
Eagles +5 and Und 46.5 {Level2}
Eagles ML -130 and Jets ML -140 PARLAY {Level1}
SD +3 , Philly +8.5 , Jets +7.5 {Level2}


Now take Pitt -1 , TB -1 and all Level 1 , 3 team Teasers use as the 3rd team :
Rams +24
Panthers +9
Lions +21
Texans +7
Skins +12.5
Seattle +17
Jags +20 (actual make this Level 2}
Eagles +9
Under 54 Rams
Under 49 Titans
Over 41.5 Saints
Over 31 NYG
Over 36 Cards
Under 51 Dallas
(thats 13 Level 1 teasers and the Level2 teaser.......YIKES! )
Net Profit / Loss : LOSSES -17.30


1 PM Second Half Plays :

Bills +1 {Level1}
Titans -3 {Level2}
Texans PK -110 {Level2}
Over 20 TB {Level3}
Under 24 Carolina {Level2}
Under 20 Det+100 {Level2}
Det +3.5 +100{Level3}
Over 23 +100 Chi {Level2}
Houston +0.5 -140{Level1}
Oak +7 +110 {Level 3 } PURE HEDGE on the TB TEASERS
Giants +5.5 {Level2}
Browns +3 {Level1}
Net Profit / Losses : Win +11.75 Losses -5.10
+6.65

2nd H 4:15s
Skins +3 -120 {Level2}
Over 19.5 {Level1}
Jags +0.5 +110 {Level1}
Hawks +4.5 -120 {Level 2}
Over 23 -115 Zona {Level1}
Under 20-120 Dallas {Level2} PUSH
Under 19.5 Dallas {Level1}
Jets -2 {Level1}
Net: Wins +1.00 Losses -4.60
-3.60

 

[SportsNut]

Last game of the season.....

Chargers -6.5 -120 {Level3}

Teaser : SD and Under trying to get SD at less then 1 to avoid another Minnesota fiasco...

Denver had 500 yards of offense and couldnt win at home and now the last RB standing is Tatum Bell with 7 others on IR ! SD very good vs the run is going to makde Denver beat them through the air but w/o the threat of a ground game its easier for even SD to play the pass...IMO...

Faded teams who couldnt win that key game last week especially if they are now on the road ....enter Denver like Dallas ....SD has huge payback we know that and has a ton of steam / ,omentum on their side now......

Playoff type game and Champ playing make the under look more attractive then a shootout as SD will really try and pound the rock vs DENVER IMO ........

Sure I will have some other plays on this but getting it out of the way ...:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

2nd H :

Skins +3 -120 {Level2}
Over 19.5 {Level1}

Jags +0.5 +110 {Level1}

- Exactly what I expetced to happen has in SF . Just had hoped it wouldnt be 17-0 Skins in the 2nd Q ....little concerned because Hill has typical played well in the 1st and 4th Quarter so riding the over as well ...

GL:cheers:

Under Dallas 2nd H {Level1 play when it comes out}

 

[Streakin]

I got Jags +3

 

[SportsNut]

Add:

Hawks +4.5 -120 {Level 2}
Over 23 -115 {Level1}

Under 20-120 Dallas {Level2}
Under 19.5 Dallas {Level1}

Jets -2 {Level1}

:cheers:GL

 

[SportsNut]

I got Jags +3

bad read by me ...happens...they move so quick

Good catch though...:shake:

 

[Streakin]

Have not bet it...may though

you mean Zona -4.5?

Luck Nut

 

[SportsNut]

Have not bet it...may though

you mean Zona -4.5?

Luck Nut

Sorry SEA +4.5 -120 , Thanks:shake:

 

[Streakin]

Sorry SEA +4.5 -120 , Thanks:shake:

Like it.:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

:cheers:GL

 

[SportsNut]

Ceratinly disappointed with todays results but more because when I review its never looks the way I like it . I feel damn good about the day but have nothing to show for it because I am always overweighted on the wrong plays and shockingly they always lose....

Anyway...

Chargers -6.5 -120 {Level3 , Level 3} Double max play

Have 2 Teasers which need SD to complete pending well 3 if you count the one added with NIU in CFB

Teaser :
Under 56 & SD -1 {Level3}

1st Q SD -0.5 -125 {Level1}
1st H SD -4.5 -105 {Level2}
1st H Over 24.5 {Level2}
TT Under 21 -115 Denver {Level2}
4th Q under 13.5 -115 {Level1}
Under 50 {Level1}

GL


L10 games only twiced has DEN scored more then 24 points and it was @ CLE and @ NYJ . NY the weather was terrible and some fluke things happened and @ CLE the Browns fell apart and allowed 21 late points.

KEY NUMBER for me:
5.5 vs 5.8

DEN allows 5.5 YPC on the road and SD allows 5.8 YPA

Huge DIFFERENCE !

Look at every playoff possible team who failed to WIN last week and how they played this week ..

Payback , the playoffs , and so on game seems similiar to the one @ carolina for Denver ....

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Adding to the above mess ..

SD-4.5 1st H {Level2 } which makes it a Level 3 play for me ..thinking 21-7

 

[CASH]

anything on the 2nd half??

 

[lungster]

i like 2h over, i think sd will continue to score at will and denver will try to score to make a game out of it

 

[SportsNut]

Sorry guys wasnt around . Would have said SD and Under . Thought after the INT denver was dead....

GL

 

[SportsNut]

Ceratinly disappointed with todays results but more because when I review its never looks the way I like it . I feel damn good about the day but have nothing to show for it because I am always overweighted on the wrong plays and shockingly they always lose....

Anyway...

Chargers -6.5 -120 {Level3 , Level 3} Double max play WIN

Have 2 Teasers which need SD to complete pending well 3 if you count the one added with NIU in CFB

Teaser :
Under 56 & SD -1 {Level3} LOSS

1st Q SD -0.5 -125 {Level1} WIN
1st H SD -4.5 -108 {Level3}WIN
1st H Over 24.5 {Level2}WIN
TT Under 21 -115 Denver {Level2} PUSH or LOSS 10 minutes left
4th Q under 13.5 -115 {Level1}Loss
Under 50 {Level1} Loss

GL


L10 games only twiced has DEN scored more then 24 points and it was @ CLE and @ NYJ . NY the weather was terrible and some fluke things happened and @ CLE the Browns fell apart and allowed 21 late points.

KEY NUMBER for me:
5.5 vs 5.8

DEN allows 5.5 YPC on the road and SD allows 5.8 YPA

Huge DIFFERENCE !

Look at every playoff possible team who failed to WIN last week and how they played this week ..

Payback , the playoffs , and so on game seems similiar to the one @ carolina for Denver ....

:cheers:

Pissed at not having more on SD and another fucking silly teaser. Figures I crushed the two 2 team same game teaser all year and fuck fest today ..

:cheers:Still 9:47 left though

 

[SportsNut]

To many mistakes as usual....going to right the ship for the playoffs though ...

1PM Sides:

Bengals ML -135 {Level2}
Rams +14.5 -115 {Level2}
Titans -2.5 -120 {Level3} (-3)
Titans ML -143avg{Level3} (-3.58)
Pats +7-120 & +6-120 {level3 split bewteen two Level2 plays} (-3)
Browns +11.5 {Level1}
Panthers ML -123avg {Level3}
Vikings -6.5 -120 middled Giants +7.5 -120 {Level1} VIGGED
Texans -2.5 -110{Level3}
Texans ML -145 {Level2}
TB -10-130 {Level1}
Net Gain / Loss : Wins +8.75 Losses-10.88 -2.13



4 PM
SF ML -135 {Level3}Middled with SKins +3.5 -140 Level2 and Level1 plays
Seattle +7.5 -120 {Level2}
Jags +11.5 -120 {Level2}
Jets -2.5 -115 {Level3}
Jets ML -140 {Level2}
Eagles -126 ML {level3}
8PM:
Chargers -6.5 -120{Level3 , Level3}
Net Gain / Loss : Wins +11.75 Losses-7.63 +4.12


1st Quarter / 1st Half or any Quarter's (assume Level 1 unless noted)
1st H Bills +3.5 -120{Level2}
1st Q TB -3 +100
1st Q Det +3 -105{Level2}
1st H Det +7 -105 {Level2} PUSH
2nd Q Det +4.5 -120
3rd Q Vikes -0.5 +100
4th Q Rams +3
4th Q Titans -0.5 +135
4th Q Jags +3 -120
2nd Q Pitt -4.5 -105
4th Q NE -0.5 +100
1st Q Zona -0.5 -120
1st Q SF -0.5 +135
1st Q Under Philly 7.5 -130
1st H Under Philly 21-120 {Level2}
1st H Under Miami 21+100 {Level2}
1st Q Under Miami 7.5 -130
1st Q SD -0.5 -125
1st H SD -4.5 {Level3}
4th Q Under 13.5 -115
Net Profit/ Loss : Wins +8.43 Losses -6.75 +1.68


Totals :
Under 45-120 Rams {Level1}
Under 40 -120 Colts {Level1}
Over 46 Texans {Level1}
4 PM
Over 46-115 Cards {Level2}
Under 41.5 -120 Dallas {Level2}
Over 37 -120 Jags {Level2}
Under 50 SD
Over 1st H 24.5 SD {Level2}
Net Profit/Loss : Win +3.50 Loss -4.15 -0.65



3 Team Parlay :
Tenny ML -140 , Houston -2.5 -120 and Carolina ML -125 {Level 2}
Eagles ML -130 and Jets ML -140 PARLAY {Level1}
Net Profit/Loss : Win 0 Losses -1.75 (-1.75 )

Team Totals : -115 @ level 1
GB Over 27
NYG Over 17
STL Over 14-120
Jags Over 13
Denver Und 21 PUSH
Net Profit / Gain : Win +1.50 Loss -0.57 +0.93


Teasers : -120 vig
Vikings -1 and Zona -1 {Level3}
Pitt -1 , TB -1 and GB -1 {Level3}
SD +1 , Cal PK , Under 61 Cal {Level2} CFB yesterday
Eagles +5 and Und 46.5 {Level2}
SD +3 , Philly +8.5 , Jets +7.5 {Level2}
SD -1 and Under 56 {Level3}


Now take Pitt -1 , TB -1 and all Level 1 , 3 team Teasers use as the 3rd team :
Rams +24
Panthers +9
Lions +21
Texans +7
Skins +12.5
Seattle +17
Jags +20 (actual make this Level 2}
Eagles +9
Under 54 Rams
Under 49 Titans
Over 41.5 Saints
Over 31 NYG
Over 36 Cards
Under 51 Dallas

Unfortunately the 14 teasers listed above IF TB hits go 12-2 and Jags pushed at +20 which is a loss but that was the worst you could have had in that game spread wise...
Level1 : 0-13 -7.80
Level 2: 1-2 -1.75 (not including the CFB one as I posted that yesterday)
Level3 : 0-3 -9.00

Net Profit / Loss : -18.55
Maybe a silly experiment but just goes to show if I put more time into it was right on the nails with all the ones I chose except TB really ...so cost me a 13.20 swing on Level1s with TB choking , no difference on Level 2 and including Vikes Push at -1 the Level 3 swing was 11.00...so TB losing SU and Vikes at -1 not -0.5 was a 24.20 swing which would have made me +5.65 rather down 18 and change


1 PM Second Half Plays :

Bills +1 {Level1}
Titans -3 {Level2}
Texans PK -110 {Level2}
Over 20 TB {Level3}
Under 24 Carolina {Level2}
Under 20 Det+100 {Level2}
Det +3.5 +100{Level3}
Over 23 +100 Chi {Level2}
Houston +0.5 -140{Level1}
Oak +7 +110 {Level 3 } PURE HEDGE on the TB TEASERS
Giants +5.5 {Level2}
Browns +3 {Level1}
Net Profit / Losses : Win +11.75 Losses -5.10 so +6.65


2nd H 4:15s
Skins +3 -120 {Level2}
Over 19.5 {Level1}
Jags +0.5 +110 {Level1}
Hawks +4.5 -120 {Level 2}
Over 23 -115 Zona {Level1}
Under 20-120 Dallas {Level2} PUSH
Under 19.5 Dallas {Level1}
Jets -2 {Level1}
Net: Wins +1.00 Losses -4.60 so -3.60

Final Tally :
+6.85 on everything but teasers and parlays
-20.30 on the ole fashion sucker bets

Playoffs !!

GOAL +100 % .....Trim the FAT!

 

[chancedog]

Hey SN went to the Jet game yesterday hoping for a Jet win for my Pats. I couldn't hit the Jets or the over. Just dropping in to say What up and Happy Holidays