Fight Night ~ June 25

[mrpickem]

UFC Vegas 57: Prelims

• Frey ...Lil Monster is far too small for Strawweight, Frey should be able to secure early takedowns at will and hold Demopoulos for enogh control time to secure decision.
• Kelleher KO ...Huge drop in opposition quality for Kelleher but it's not a total gimme, as Kelleher has a habit of walking into subs and Bautista is an underrated grappler. Most of the fight is likely spent on the feet, where Kelleher has a huge technical advantage.
• Durden/Buys over ...Young Savage lacks the killer sub chops to rise in the UFC, but is a surprisingly compact wrestler and has an athletic platform to build off. Maybe Durden’s heavier hands will carry the cards. But sticking with over only in a tossup bout.
• Paiva ...Since Paiva is such a slow starter, Morozov should be able to lay down a clinic in the opening round. If Paiva survives the first round, her wrestling should control the bout once she gets going.

My action:

• 2.20/2 Jinh Yu Frey by Points -110
• 2.35/4 BRIAN KELLEHER +170
• 2/5.50 BRIAN KELLEHER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +275
• 3/2.78 JP BUYS vs CODY DURDEN o2½-108
• 2/2.74 RAULIAN PAIVA +137

 

[mrpickem]

next

• 2.31/3 TJ Brown by Points +130
• 3/4.50 TAFON NCHUKWI KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +150
• 4/2.65 TAFON NCHUKWI -151

• Brown ...Nuerdanbieke has plenty of experience, even considering the less than stellar opposition of regional Chinese MMA. Both men need to succeed with takedowns at various points, it’s Nuerdanbieke’s proclivity for mistakes that may swing this fight.
• Nchukwi KO ...After falling on his sword trying to blast Kennedy Nzechukwu out in a glorious first-round debut, Ulberg reverted to a defensive, conservative approach against Fabio Cherant. Nchukwi is far more consistent, applying constant pressure with a solid enough chin to remain threatening late.

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[mrpickem]

UFC Vegas 57: Main Card​

• Curtis KO ...While I am a big fan of submission wizards in MMA, I’m not sure I can ever be truly confident in Vieira after the Anthony Hernandez fight. Vieira’s chances of an early submission are high as Curtis does take time to warm into fights. Still, Curtis is vastly experienced and has never been submitted across his long career. I’m letting my heart take the wheel for this one, though.
• Nurmagomedov Sub early ...On the one hand, Maness was pieced apart by Tony Gravely for the best of two minutes. On the other, Maness remains a constant powerful threat and owns a granite chin to wait for the prime opportunity. Unfortunately for Maness, Nurmagomedov’s mobility will allow him to keep to favorable exchanges. Although I would like for this fight to go deep just to see how Nurmagomedov can adapt, I expect Maness will walk into a trap early.
• Moises Decision ...Moises is easily herded onto the cage but carries enough firepower to fight his way out against the likes of Giagos’ striking prowess. The X-Factor is whether Giagos can take Moises down early enough to make a difference. If so, Giagos cannot afford to sloppily transition and allow Moises to escape as easily as Tsarukyan. Either way, Moises’ gas tank should see a shifting of the tide by the mid-point.
• Parisian KO ...For an overblown Light Heavyweight, the Black Samourai is an exciting striker to watch. Dynamic with intercepting elbows, Baudot also flies out of the blocks with well-timed, accurate counters. Unfortunately, Baudot lacks the natural strength to keep Parisian’s hulking mass from walking him down and pinned to the mat.
• Magny ...Somewhat rivaling Magny’s size, Rakhmonov takes away one of Magny’s key weapons. Magny has proven time again that he can dig deep, while the Kazakh fighter is still an unproven product late in fights against the likes of Magny’s disgustingly swarmy, neutralizing clinch game. Rakhmonov certainly owns the fundamentals to get inside of Magny’s reach and pick holes in Neil’s defense. Seems foolish to pick a man wobbled by Max Griffin, but Magny is a true litmus paper test for Rakhmonov, and the odds predicate this selection...

 

[mrpickem]

next

• 4/3.70 Chris Curtis -108
• 3/3.60 Chris Curtis by KO/TKO or DQ +120
• 2/6.00 Umar Nurmagomedov in Round 1 by Submission +300

 

[mrpickem]

some moar...

• 4/3.25 Josh Parisian -123
• 2/6.00 Josh Parisian by KO/TKO or DQ +300
• 3/5.25 Thiago Moises by Points +175
• 4/2.86 Christos Giagos VS Thiago Moises Over2½ -140
• 3/11.31 NEIL MAGNY +377

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[mrpickem]

as for the main, it's close and should roll with the dog, but you know how I am...

• 3/1.23 Arman Tsarukyan -243