I ran the numbers in the Premier League, comparing Tottenham’s total shots ratio (a measure of dominance) to their total shots ratio without Gareth Bale in the squad. Tottenham’s TSR is an impressive .644. That’s historically commensurate with a top four finish.
Their TSR in the four games without Bale in the side was .666. This is right on the cusp of any predictive strength, but Spurs maintained that number in matches against Chelsea, Everton, Swansea and Reading, a pretty good mix of skilled sides. Their TSR exclusively with Bale? .643.
The shooting percentage however does provide a unique point of interest. Spurs total shot percentage is an impressive (and perhaps unsustainable) 20%. In those four matches without Bale, it dropped to a still considerable 13%. With Bale, Spurs shooting percentage is 22%.
We need to be very careful in interpreting these numbers, but on the question of how good a side Spurs are as a whole without Bale, it’s a yes. It’s also possible Bale could be helping to drive the team’s shooting percentage. Spurs have an unnaturally low save percentage this season, keeping their PDO low, but their shooting is keeping them in the top four.
Interpreted that way, one might make the case Bale has been essential in overcoming a low save percentage and keeping them in the top four. But the team as a whole is still very, very good without him.