Thursday Plays / Thoughts :
Utah Jazz ML -150 (320) - Just prefer the ML as a safety net .
Small situational edge with Utah coming in with 2 days off versus DAL playing B2B and a 3rd in 4 days which included win @ ORlando , then go home and defeat Portland yesterday and now out to play Utah . Really only CJ Miles is a question mark healthwise at this point . Utah has played well ecept when playing on no rest an amazing 1-11 SU but with 2 days rest 8-2 SU (7-3 UNDER allowing 95 points). Recent home loss to the CLE and think earlier away loss at Milw but still just 5-5 ATS .
My feelings are simple in that I just feel things clicked for Utah in that Charlotte game and they will seem some carryover in terms of play from that game . Dallas is in a tough spot relying heavily on 4 key players and winning @ Orl , vs Port then @ Utah is etremely tough in a 4 day strecth IMO . Natually it can be done but guessing it wont be.
The rest of the scenario can be read in any article about the game . Dallas hasnt played well at Utah recently think 1-10-1 L12 meetings and Diggler has his issues with the rough play , etc that he feels goes own in Utah ...etc,etc,etc...
Total : Thinking Under 208.5 but might play it differently (quarter ,half , Team total maybe ) .....
Sixers Team Total Over 110.5 (200) -
Lets just look at the backdrop ...Sixers had a meltdown at home vs NJN in the 4th Quarter and choked away a big win then came out vs Boston somewhat flat falling behind 12 after 1 QUARTER . Only say somewhat flat because C's have been CRUSHING teams in the 1st Q lately so a DD lead isnt really special in their case. However Philly fought back and lead the ENTIRE 4th Quarter (or tied obviously) until Ray Allen hit a TREY with 0.5 left in the game to win by 1 point .....Mix in the Brand news and Philly now 1 game below .500 is in a scary spot where IMO things could slip away ..
Huge game for them IMO ....
Now look at the season series though . Indiana 1st meeting at home jumps out to a 25 pt lead after 1 quarter . TWENTY FIVE!! Philly however rallied in the 2nd Quarter and eventually won by 2 points . Next meeting ya know INDY had some revenge in mind. Problem was the whole damn team was OUT : Granger , Murphy , Daniels , Dunleavy !!! Today they may be w/o Jeff Foster ... Well they copied the 1st game falling behind by DD's after 1 quarter and then rallying to win by 2 in Philly !!!
So for that you have to think Philly has some payback in mind trying to defend their home court especially after consecutive 4th Quarter HOME COURT CHOKES !! Dont think point spread matters here ...sixers win by 6+ points or lose SU IMO ...
1st Quarter Indiana +1.5 -105 (200)
2nd Quarter Sixers -1.5 (80)
3rd Quarter Sixers -1.5 (160)
Props :
Thaddeus Young +2.5 points -120 vs Mike Dunleavy (300)- Reasoning is for the most part Dunleavy has contributed 14 ppg well really 13-15 range. Think 9 of 15 he has 14 or less and 10 of 15 he had 15pts or less . While Thaddeus Young sort of works the same way where he tends to score 11pts or less or 17 points or more ..1st meeting he had 25 pts next he had just 10 points ....The BASIC point though is IND does a poor job of guarding forwards who are able hit to jump shots ..
Andre Iguadola 33.5 Pts + Rbs +A -150 (160) - Same deal since Iggy is at the Forward spot now . Expect him to drop 25 pts maybe more and would prefer a plain points prop to this one but beggars cant be choosers...
1st Quarter Boston Celtics -2 (240) - Last 5 games Boston 30pts to 22.6 and LAL is 26.4 to 28 but those are just avgs anyway...On the season adjusted for Home / away Boston is +4.7 pts in the 1st Q and LAL is +1.5 pts...Boston even won the 1st Q in LAL this season 24-23...
4th Quarter Boston Celtics -1.5 (120)
Team Total Under 99.5 LAL (120) - Think with KG back in the MIX so is the Boston defense but concerned with the small ball LAL has to play with Bynum out ion Gasol in the middle ( at least their version of it )...
Team Total Over 106.5 Boston (160) - LAL allowed 107 , 108 and 131 in three of the four meetings at Boston last season..
ML Parlay: ( I suck at these so far )
-150 Utah , -220 Sixers , -320 Boston (180/393)
Utah -3 , Sixers -5 , Boston ML -320 (120/454)
Good Luck ....playing hoops in a bit myself