FANTASY FOOBALL RANKINGS PREDICTIONS, PLAYER PROP WAGERS

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

Pretty much a regular
What's up Family ??

Hope everyone is having a fantastic summer.

This is the most exciting time of the year for many of us football degenerates ...
I've been working all summer on the fantasy football , player projections vs sportsbook PROP numbers , and the NFL in general ...

Already hammered a few player props including a DOUBLE mortgage 12 unit play ( will post below) .




FANTASY FOOTBALL
Will post my rankings at each position, with must haves , sleepers, busts, and players to avoid.

All 3 of my leagues are 12 team redraft for season long action ..2 of the 3 are PPR with the 3rd league having the wackiest scoring system possible...


As usual my strategy is to avoid taking a QB or TE until at least the 7th or later ...Unless a player drops way down the board ...
I'm bullish on drafting RUNNINGBACKS early and often.. In a majority of sleeper app mocks I take backs in 4 of the first 6 rounds....







Anyway let's get to


BEST of HEALTH, BLESSINGS , WEALTH, and LUCK to ALL CTG BROTHERS/SISTERS !!!
 
I don’t really play year long fantasy anymore but agree with most your strategies. I’d think Carr would be a potential qb target for me if I was to play as I assume you can get him much later after everyone else has picked a qb! For a non running qb I think he could have a pretty big year, they loaded with weapons and have a pretty favorable schedule! certainly good enough to win a championship with assuming you get the other positions right!!

Rashee Rice for kc a later round wr I think could have a monster year, one those picks that won’t hurt much if you wrong but could help win a league if he turns into the best wr on one the best offenses!! He needs to hang on to the ball but dude looks the part, toney always hurt and mvs is just a guy. Sky Moore is probably more on ppl radar but he seems smallish, Rice could turn out being the guy!! Of course other than kelce chiefs could have a different guy every week, after watching him some this preseason and when he played for smu I think he worth a flier.
 
Where is Waller going in drafts? I assume he going later than some the top te’s? If he stays healthy I think he has a monster season in deboll offense.
 
Where is Waller going in drafts? I assume he going later than some the top te’s? If he stays healthy I think he has a monster season in deboll offense.
He's in 50-60 range or so. Behind Kelce, Andrews, and Hockenson.
 
I generally didn’t pick te’s that early, he has lot of injury risk too. I do think he has a big season assuming he can stay healthy.
Big if. But most in industry are raving how good he's looked this camp. I'm higher on Jones than most this year, so I'm hoping Waller kills it.
 
Big if. But most in industry are raving how good he's looked this camp. I'm higher on Jones than most this year, so I'm hoping Waller kills it.

If waller stays healthy I think Jones could have a pretty big year. He took big leap last year w Daboll and was lacking weapons. Now another year in system and better skill players around him I think he gonna end up a lot better than most of us ever thought.
 
QB Rankings

As stated above QB is a position I try to avoid drafting until at least the 7th or 8th ed , more often than not even later like the 9-11th ...

Tiers and projected rounds

***= targeted players

<<< = players I'm avoiding


Tier 1
1 Mahomes 2nd round. ..
Have seen him go as early as 9th overall in some mocks .

2 J Allen. 2-3 round. ..
As a BILLS fan I'm hoping the short yardage duties are passed on to Damien Harris or Latavius Murray ..Allen should have a great season but his fantasy production could dip some .



Tier 2. Lots of talent here but there is no way I could take a QB this early

3. Hurts. 3rd RD
4 Burrow. 3-4th

5. Lamar. ** 3--4th. Predicting a big bounce back year .Lamar finally escapes trash OC Greg Roman . Wouldn't be suprised to see Lamar enter next season as fantasy qb #2 ..

6. Herbert. 4-5 th RD



TIER 3.

7. Lawrence. 5-6th

8. Fields <<< 4-6th. Racked up a ton of points down the stretch in garbage time ..Sure he might do it again but I can't take a qb who has trouble with the forward pass ..



Tier 4.
Here is where the real value starts IMO.

9. TUA. ****** 7-8TH
I'm much higher on Tua than almost anyone lol ...If healthy he could be top 5 ..

10. Prescott. < 7-8th
Pass for me, but not a bad pick if he lasts this long .

11. Cousins. *** 8-9th
Won the championship last season with Kirk ..Numbers are fantastic , just be careful in prime time games .




Tier 5.
Another tier where I'd be happy if my #1 QB came from ( just would Reccomended taking 2 of these if that's the case ...


12. Rodgers. . 9 th.
Do have some concerns about the O Line ..

13 . Watson. <<<<< 9th
I do not like Watson at all but this is lowest I could rank him...Fortunately he'll go much soon than this .

14. G Smith. *** 10th.
Back to a player I do like ..Good value .

15. D Jones ***. 10-11th
Having Jones as your #2 seems like a good idea .

16. A. Richardson. 10th
Don't be suprised if he goes much earlier .

17. Goff. **** 11-12th.
Another qb #2 target

18. R.Wilson. **** 11-12th
Another bounce back candidate.



Tier 6.
Some okay Qb #2 in here as well as some players that I'd probably cut in the first few weeks ..
Fairly often there are at least 3 of 12 teams don't take a QB #2


19. Carr. ***** 13-15th
Love the way the Saints schedule shakes out. I've done over 400 mock drafts so far , Carr is probably on half my teams...

20. J Love. *** 14-16 th
Deep sleeper. Think he'll be much better than most predict.

21. K Murray. * 14-15
Draft and stash on IR ..

22. Pickett. ** 15-16
Could take a big step forward

23. Stafford. 15- UDR
Maybe in the last round?

24. B. Young. 16- UDR
Throwing darts I guess

25. Purdy. * 16
Could be a Mr irrelevant steal ( again )
 
I don’t really play year long fantasy anymore but agree with most your strategies. I’d think Carr would be a potential qb target for me if I was to play as I assume you can get him much later after everyone else has picked a qb! For a non running qb I think he could have a pretty big year, they loaded with weapons and have a pretty favorable schedule! certainly good enough to win a championship with assuming you get the other positions right!!

Rashee Rice for kc a later round wr I think could have a monster year, one those picks that won’t hurt much if you wrong but could help win a league if he turns into the best wr on one the best offenses!! He needs to hang on to the ball but dude looks the part, toney always hurt and mvs is just a guy. Sky Moore is probably more on ppl radar but he seems smallish, Rice could turn out being the guy!! Of course other than kelce chiefs could have a different guy every week, after watching him some this preseason and when he played for smu I think he worth a flier.

Believe you have ESP ...
Last year you did the same thing in my MAC thread predicting that Bowling Green would be my sleeper ..lol

Absolutely love CARR this season. Especially considering he tends to go in the last 2 rounds of a standard PPR 16 round draft.. He ends up as my qb #2 on most of my mock drafts . SAINTS have plenty of talent on that offense and a favorable schedule like you mentioned .


Also love the idea of drafting Chiefs WRS late ...I'm head over heels on former MAC man SKYY MOORE ..He's been practicing with the first team most of camp ..I target MOORE in the 9-1th rounds( usually in the 10th round ) ...Have a big bet on MOORE over 550.5 yards.



If I don't get Moore , RICE is on my list in the 12-13th round...Could see him panning out, and like you said you're not wasting much resource drafting him late ..
I don't like Kadarius Toney , he's going in the 7-8th, dude's already hurt , seems to be made of glass..
 
Half these things I ever played in i eventually get forced to take a qb cause the other idiots start drafting a 2nd one! I couldn’t imagine wasting a roster spot for a guy I’m gonna use once!! Those ppl drafting 2nd qbs have already burned a early pick on one the top guys so really makes no damn sense. I guess that why I won a lot! Lol
 
Believe you have ESP ...
Last year you did the same thing in my MAC thread predicting that Bowling Green would be my sleeper ..lol

Absolutely love CARR this season. Especially considering he tends to go in the last 2 rounds of a standard PPR 16 round draft.. He ends up as my qb #2 on most of my mock drafts . SAINTS have plenty of talent on that offense and a favorable schedule like you mentioned .


Also love the idea of drafting Chiefs WRS late ...I'm head over heels on former MAC man SKYY MOORE ..He's been practicing with the first team most of camp ..I target MOORE in the 9-1th rounds( usually in the 10th round ) ...Have a big bet on MOORE over 550.5 yards.



If I don't get Moore , RICE is on my list in the 12-13th round...Could see him panning out, and like you said you're not wasting much resource drafting him late ..
I don't like Kadarius Toney , he's going in the 7-8th, dude's already hurt , seems to be made of glass..


Lol, great minds and all.


I mean I like toney talent but dude has way to big a track record at this point, you can’t trust him to play more than a handful of games. As you said the Mfer already hurt, I’d guess chiefs are beyond expecting much out of him.
 
I don’t disagree w your take on Tua, in that offense I agree he could put up monster numbers, it just so hard to trust a guy with his history gonna stay healthy. Especially with the concussions, dunno how many more of those he can take? Gotta figure if he does get another he will sit longer than anyone else would. I don’t know if I buy the jujitsu stuff mattering? I suppose if he can learn to keep his head from bouncing off the ground it can’t hurt, lol.

If you told me he played all season I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was somewhere between 5-10 for qb scoring, not cause I think he a top 10 qb but I think Mike McDaniel offense is fantastic, he gets those ultra fast wrs running free all over the field.
 
I couldn’t ever bring myself to take a qb this early but think Lamar as the 5th qb going is off. I’m not sure I’d call it value since taking a qb in 3rd round is blasphemy, getting him as the 5th qb does feel like a deal tho.
 
Also would you keep Jalen Hurts for a 4.1 pick or Drake London for a 7.12?

Going off the adp I’m looking at it 6-1, half dozen to the other. I see hurts adp around 22, london 61. If these adp’s correct little more value in hurts but not tons. I never really played keeper leagues (1 season a huge commitment for me! Lol), even tho I’m a guy who believes in getting my qb after everyone else id think it be way easier to find a wr comparable to london in 7th than a qb comparable to hurts in 4th (I assume lot of the top qbs are kept?).
 
Man, iim just looking at adp’s since I don’t play these anymore I don’t pay much attention. Seems to me like Bijan is going way high, don’t get me wrong dude is a beast, author smith prob one the best guys in football designing run games, but Bijan isn’t gonna get all the touches. Falcons have several good backs, I don’t know that Bijan gonna get all the touches is he? I rather have Gibbs a few rounds later, he gonna get all the passing down work and I see a easier path to him owning that backfield!
 
Could be. I’m basically hoping for him, Bijan, or King Henry to slip. If I want a RB for sure I’ll have to reach for Jacobs or Eteinne.

While I don’t disagree w @DOUBLEUP4LIFE thoughts bout hoarding rbs early I’m not sure it realistic anymore. There just not many true every down horses anymore, I have no problem taking top tier wrs if I’m at end of round 1 and I don’t love the backs, then start hoarding backs where there lot of guys I like but not worth taking at 1st turn. I see lot of backs I’d start taking in 3rd-4th-5th I rather have with a sick wr group, or even kelce at te (didht used to ever be into taking te early either but there is absolutely merit in it I think). I never box myself into anything, I think it’s better to let draft come to you. If I can get backs I like early great, if not I’m good waiting and taking a bunch in mid rounds.
 
While I don’t disagree w @DOUBLEUP4LIFE thoughts bout hoarding rbs early I’m not sure it realistic anymore. There just not many true every down horses anymore, I have no problem taking top tier wrs if I’m at end of round 1 and I don’t love the backs, then start hoarding backs where there lot of guys I like but not worth taking at 1st turn. I see lot of backs I’d start taking in 3rd-4th-5th I rather have with a sick wr group, or even kelce at te (didht used to ever be into taking te early either but there is absolutely merit in it I think). I never box myself into anything, I think it’s better to let draft come to you. If I can get backs I like early great, if not I’m good waiting and taking a bunch in mid rounds.

Yeah if one of the top backs in the ADP top 11 don't slip to me at the turn - I won't draft the 18 and 21 ADP guys in Jacobs or Travis. I have Hurts at 4.1 so I would maybe draft AJ Brown to have a nice connection and then an Adams or someone like that. I understand the value in waiting on TEs etc. but I also HATE streaming guys week to week. It's exhausting and is a nice luxury on time to simply have a guy penciled in week to week.
 
Yeah if one of the top backs in the ADP top 11 don't slip to me at the turn - I won't draft the 18 and 21 ADP guys in Jacobs or Travis. I have Hurts at 4.1 so I would maybe draft AJ Brown to have a nice connection and then an Adams or someone like that. I understand the value in waiting on TEs etc. but I also HATE streaming guys week to week. It's exhausting and is a nice luxury on time to simply have a guy penciled in week to week.

My feelings on te have changed. If you can get kelce I’m assuming he smashes the point production you get out of other te’s so I have nothing against it. Te def can be a pain in the ass so if you can just plug the top scoring one in and forget it seems like a ok plan to me. I know I’ll find a wr and a rb in later rounds that vastly outperforms where I draft him, not always the case with te. I do like Waller this year but he going pretty high considering the injury risk.
 
What backs would you consider at the then 12/13?
[/QUOTE



Good question ..in 2 of my drafts I'll be picking 12th...
Chubb is high on my list , don't think Barkley or rookie Robinson Fall fo us .

Chubb , Henry most likely .. I'm also very high on Pollard , but probably not so early at 12 /13 .



Taking back to back Wr's at 12 /13 is also a possibility ...
Then I'd be hoping for RB at 36 /37 = Mixon, Jones , Walker .
 
What backs would you consider at the then 12/13?


Good question ..in 2 of my drafts I'll be picking 12th...
Chubb is high on my list , don't think Barkley or rookie Robinson Fall fo us .

Chubb , Henry most likely .. I'm also very high on Pollard , but probably not so early at 12 /13 .



Taking back to back Wr's at 12 /13 is also a possibility ...
Then I'd be hoping for RB at 36 /37 = Mixon, Jones , Walker .
 
Where is Waller going in drafts? I assume he going later than some the top te’s? If he stays healthy I think he has a monster season in deboll offense.


Mid 50's or so is too early for me ...
Waller could thrive in Daboll's offense, but his injuries worry me drafting him in the 5th round...

I'd rather wait until the 8th round and see if Friermuth or Engram is there....Don't mind waiting later than that either.
 
Man, iim just looking at adp’s since I don’t play these anymore I don’t pay much attention. Seems to me like Bijan is going way high, don’t get me wrong dude is a beast, author smith prob one the best guys in football designing run games, but Bijan isn’t gonna get all the touches. Falcons have several good backs, I don’t know that Bijan gonna get all the touches is he? I rather have Gibbs a few rounds later, he gonna get all the passing down work and I see a easier path to him owning that backfield!


I don't like either of these rookie backs where they're getting drafted...
Seems way too early on both , maybe I'm way off though..
 
Yeah if one of the top backs in the ADP top 11 don't slip to me at the turn - I won't draft the 18 and 21 ADP guys in Jacobs or Travis. I have Hurts at 4.1 so I would maybe draft AJ Brown to have a nice connection and then an Adams or someone like that. I understand the value in waiting on TEs etc. but I also HATE streaming guys week to week. It's exhausting and is a nice luxury on time to simply have a guy penciled in week to week.




I think you can get that guy penciled in every week late in this year's draft ..
Might not be much difference between TE #4 and #15...

I don't mind late picks 12-14th Dulich, Everett being my TE #1 ..
 
I don't like either of these rookie backs where they're getting drafted...
Seems way too early on both , maybe I'm way off though..

Bijan seems crazy high to me, I get he a beast but is that gonna be his backfield alone? Im not sure, plus I don’t think much of Ridder which will make his job harder and his scoring chances less id think.

The thing I like bout Gibbs he great in the passing game and lions throw to the backs a lot, with swift gone I don’t really see another rb on lions who gonna catch passes? Montgomery will for sure take away lot the short yardage td chances but in ppr gibbs intrigues me. Swift missed 3-4 games each of last 2 years and still got 70+ targets, really think gibbs could put up ekeler type numbers in passing game
 
RB

Even though the game has changed so much over the years to pass oriented I still stick with the strategy of drafting backs early and often. IMO solid ones are more scarce than ever ...All 3 of my leagues now have 2 Flex spots , don't mind if they're both filled with backs ..
Don't get me wrong I'll gladly start 3 backs and 3 WR anytime. The drafted depth at RB can also be great trade bait as the season goes on .


Tier 1. Pick overall
McCaffrey. *** 2
Eckler. **** 3
I'd take both of these backs before my 4th ranked CHASE ..



Tier 2.
Barkley. ** 8
Saved my season lat year as a 3rd round pick. This does seem a little high , but he's worth it


B Robinson. << 14
Would be difficult for me to draft any rookie this high...
Goes anywhere from 4-9 in 90% of mocks..

Chubb. *** 10
My targets are set on him at 12 .

Henry. * 13.
Could this be the last season King Henry is taken in the top 15 ?

Pollard. *** 15
Expecting big things ..




Tier 3. .RB is really thin, these backs are capable of being worthy of performer like a 1st or 2nd round pick..
Drafting deep at rb can give owners valuable trade bait ..
All


Jacobs. **18
Love to hear he is signing the franchise tag .

N Harris. **** 23
Steelers offense takes a big step forward ...

Etienne. *** 24

Mixon. *** 27

Taylor. <<< 29

A Jones. ** 30

Stevenson. * 32

K Walker. *** 34




More to follow
 
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Yeah if one of the top backs in the ADP top 11 don't slip to me at the turn - I won't draft the 18 and 21 ADP guys in Jacobs or Travis. I have Hurts at 4.1 so I would maybe draft AJ Brown to have a nice connection and then an Adams or someone like that. I understand the value in waiting on TEs etc. but I also HATE streaming guys week to week. It's exhausting and is a nice luxury on time to simply have a guy penciled in week to week.

Not saying to think about Andrews, as it may be a bit reachy, but he won't be there in Rds 3/4, and even if his target share drops a little --- and it should (off memory it may have been top in the league) --- he should still see insane volume with the projected increase in pass attempts. Pre-injury he was just as good as Kelce... or you could hope for kittle, with purdy he and Andrews are the only 2 that can go to that level of Kelce imo.

As you alluded though, is it really that bad to stream/wait? Higbee is the 12th rated PPR te and all these guys are below him Chig/Dulchich/Everett/Ju. Johnson --- even a flier on Musgrave/Ferguson --- I wouldn't be shocked at Gesicki/Woods carving a spot as the season progresses too.
 
I now see it's a keeper league, so possibly players are pushed up a bit

Not an aggressive keeper. Only back that was able to be kept that is a top 5 rounder was Pollard. Can only keep 1 guy taken at 6.1 or later and it’s a 2 round penalty. I took Jalen 6.1 last and will keep him 4.1
 
Also if you go RB heavy I think you can get a WR1 in Aiyuk around pick 75. He should hit 1200 yards and 7-8 TDs. He’s unguardable in that offense and is the only true route runner they have.

Also draft Michigan Ronnie Bell with your last pick. He will be the #3 in that offense and if Debo or Aiyuk go down he will be a prime target.
 
Love the strategies. I’m pick 5 & 7 in my leagues. In both leagues, guys are talking about taking Bijan at 4 overall which is wild!

In the early bestball seasons I saw him top 5 all the time... now he is backend at first, have him in 0 leagues so far... not that I don't think he can be great, but I'd rather take a chance on Algeier much later if I go that route, while also not missing out on the other early round picks
 
In the early bestball seasons I saw him top 5 all the time... now he is backend at first, have him in 0 leagues so far... not that I don't think he can be great, but I'd rather take a chance on Algeier much later if I go that route, while also not missing out on the other early round picks

I think he a beast but I don’t think I’d take him in 1st round. I’m not sure they gonna just throw Alger and Patterson aside so he can get 20+ touches a game? Im not convinced falcons offense will be good enough with Ridder playing qb to consistently get numbers for their 1st round wr, 1st round te, and now 1st round rb? Lot of mouths to feed but not a offense I think gonna be very explosive to where you can count on consistent production from him every week. I want to be able to trust my 1st couple picks to put up numbers every week.
 
Love the strategies. I’m pick 5 & 7 in my leagues. In both leagues, guys are talking about taking Bijan at 4 overall which is wild!

Just nuts, my son picks 6th and 7th in our drafts , in both leagues the guy before him has all but locked in Bijan ...
I don't get it!!
 
Also if you go RB heavy I think you can get a WR1 in Aiyuk around pick 75. He should hit 1200 yards and 7-8 TDs. He’s unguardable in that offense and is the only true route runner they have.

Also draft Michigan Ronnie Bell with your last pick. He will be the #3 in that offense and if Debo or Aiyuk go down he will be a prime target.


Big fan of Aiyuk , yes I'd definitely take him in the mid 70's if there..

I'll keep an eye on. Ronnie Bell

Thanks For heads up
 
Usage will be there for sure. But that offense is limited!

Don't get me wrong Bijan will probably be a very good back in the NFL , Maybe the first fantasy back off the board in a couple years....But man I sure wouldn't bet on it this year ..I even wonder about the usage , maybe they try and preserve his possible longevity...
 
Don't get me wrong Bijan will probably be a very good back in the NFL , Maybe the first fantasy back off the board in a couple years....But man I sure wouldn't bet on it this year ..I even wonder about the usage , maybe they try and preserve his possible longevity...

Good point on usage.
 
Just finished two 10 team 0.5 ppr league drafts....ironically drew the 10 spot in both. First draft I wanted to make sure I got a top 5 WR, top 5 RB, top 7 QB and top 6 TE. Second draft I focused more on taking value according to ADP. Here's the two rosters (K and D drafted but not relevant here):

Herbert.................Allen
Hill..........................Diggs
Metcalf.................Higgins
Pollard..................Barkley
Stevenson............Sanders
Waller....................Freiermuth
London.................Deebo

Kamara................R White
Dotson.................McLaurin
Gibson..................Swift
B Cooks................Sutton
McKinnon............Hubbard
A Richardson......D Schultz

I feel like the better team is the value team on the right, and the depth might be a little better, but the projections favor the team on the left.
 
Many sites run an odd number of rounds. When I'm drafting last, I will always take K and D on the last available turn rather than wait for the very last pick; that usually buys me both an upper level K & D. The difference between getting a 13th round skill player vs one in the 15th round is pretty minor.
 
Just finished two 10 team 0.5 ppr league drafts....ironically drew the 10 spot in both. First draft I wanted to make sure I got a top 5 WR, top 5 RB, top 7 QB and top 6 TE. Second draft I focused more on taking value according to ADP. Here's the two rosters (K and D drafted but not relevant here):

Herbert.................Allen
Hill..........................Diggs
Metcalf.................Higgins
Pollard..................Barkley
Stevenson............Sanders
Waller....................Freiermuth
London.................Deebo

Kamara................R White
Dotson.................McLaurin
Gibson..................Swift
B Cooks................Sutton
McKinnon............Hubbard
A Richardson......D Schultz

I feel like the better team is the value team on the right, and the depth might be a little better, but the projections favor the team on the left.

Solid drafts ..Love Kamara and Dotson coming off the bench on team A .. Team very good , Diggs should have a monster season
 
Many sites run an odd number of rounds. When I'm drafting last, I will always take K and D on the last available turn rather than wait for the very last pick; that usually buys me both an upper level K & D. The difference between getting a 13th round skill player vs one in the 15th round is pretty minor.


I like this strategy...
Usually a good idea to beat the last 2 round rush on D and K ...
One of the Jags , Saints , and Chiefs are often what I choose from .
 
WR
2nd most important position to draft early and often ( behind RB ) .
Often after 6 rounds I'll have at least 2 WR if not 3 .

Tier 1
Jefferson. *** 1
Chase. 4

Tier 2.
Hill ** 5
Kupp. <<<<< 7 Not a player I'd be happy drafting
D Adams *** 9
Diggs. * 11
AJ Brown. ** 12
Waddle. **** 16. Very high
Lamb. << 17



Tier 3
St. Brown. *** 19

G Wilson. < 20. Do have some concerns about all the higher drafted Jets ..

D Smith
Olave
Metcalf




To be continued
 
Many sites run an odd number of rounds. When I'm drafting last, I will always take K and D on the last available turn rather than wait for the very last pick; that usually buys me both an upper level K & D. The difference between getting a 13th round skill player vs one in the 15th round is pretty minor.
Agree with this heavily
 
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